2012 BaseballGuys.com Mid-Season Rankings

Back in late January the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide was offered to facilitate your quest to dominate the fantasy competition. A lot has changed since then though, an awful lot.

Carlos Santana has been a massive disappointment behind the dish.

Albert Pujols struggled mightily out of the gate.

Evan Longoria had multiple setbacks with a lower body injury.

Dustin Pedroia has been largely ineffective due to injury.

Troy Tulowitzki is on the shelf yet again.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp suffered significant injuries.

Roy Halladay was hurt.

Two-thirds of the bullpens in baseball have switched closers.

Obviously, a lot has changed since the 2012 season began.

Given those facts, I thought now would be a great time update my Player Rankings. Here’s what I’ve done.

I’ve ranked the top-40 players at the following positions: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.
I’ve ranked the top-100 outfielders.
I’ve ranked the top-150 starting pitchers.
I’ve ranked the top-75 relievers.

That’s 525 players ranked for the second half of the 2012 baseball season.

How do you get your copy of the5x5, mixed league rankings?

On the right hand side of the BaseballGuys page, near the top, is a YELLOW DONATE tab. Simply click on the tab, donate $1.00 through Paypal, and The Mid-Season Rankings will be on their way to you within hours.

$1 folks – that’s it. That’s like going to iTunes and downloading a song.

It’s just that simple.

Donate to the BaseballGuys.com cause and I’ll send you an email with the PDF file containing the rankings.

There’s still time to win your fantasy baseball league this season, so let BaseballGuys.com help to guide you to that championship.

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars: A Review

 I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.

After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:

Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)

I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.

On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:

C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)

Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.

Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.

I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk  about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).

Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?

 Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.

By Ray Flowers

Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

People ask me all the time, ‘Ray, do you believe in punting?‘ My response, after some sarcastic remark about disliking the use of any kind of kicker in football, is that I do not believe in “punting” in fantasy baseball. What is “punting” and why am I against it?

By the way, how amazing would it be, after that lead in, if I didn’t even bother to address “punting?” Sometimes I just get this feisty feeling that comes over me an I feel like rebelling. Maybe that’s why my brother’s wife calls me sassy. Luckily for you, today isn’t one of those days.

What is “Punting?”

“Punting” a category means that you simply give it up (most often people refer to the saves category when they talk about punting). The idea is that a category, let’s take saves for example, can be pretty costly to add to a squad on draft day, and there is a lot of turnover at the position each year. Why not just skip worrying about saves and just try to rack up points in the other four pitching categories? People also talk about punting steals on offense, but the fact is you can “punt” any category if you really wanted to. The bottom line is that when you “punt” a category you simply do not worry at all about it, in essence eliminating it from consideration as a category you’re going to try score points in.

Is Punting a Viable Strategy?

Let’s break the strategy down using a concrete example that everyone can understand.

Let’s assume we’re talking about a 12 team mixed league.

In general, you need to accrue about 80 percent of the available point total to win a league. Given that there are 10 categories in the standard setup, this means a maximum point total for a 12 team league would be 120 points (10 categories, 12 points for first place finish in each, 11 for a second, 10 for a third etc.). If the league maximum is 120 points, and we’re targeting 80 percent of that number as the level we will likely need to achieve in order to win the league, then we will need our hypothetical team to record at least 96 points (obviously there are leagues where you might need 100 or more points to emerge the victor). Therefore, we have nine remaining categories – remember we are “punting” one of them –  to earn 95 points (you get one point for finishing in last spot). Ninety-five divided by nine is 10.6, meaning we’re going to need to finish no lower than third place across the board in order to get to 96 points, but in reality we’re going to have to finish first or second in every other category. Can a team do that? Of course it can, but you also have to realize that by removing a category you’ve significantly reduced your margin for error. To state it again. We need 96 points in our model. We have only nine categories that we are targeting. Let’s say in one of our nine categories our team finishes in 7th spot. That would leave us with six points in that category. With our remaining eight categories we would need 89 points. That’s 11.1 points per category meaning we would have to nearly finish in first place in all other eight categories to win the league. Is it possible to win this way? Yes it is. But doesn’t it seem inherently risky?

I haven’t addressed a major component of this strategy that will have to work in order for you to win a league.

Will you select the right players to build your team around?

Last year if you had Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Stephen Strasburg as three of your anchors you would have been feeling pretty good about your team, right? By the end of the season you likely were puking if those were three of your building blocks. Will injury strike? Will players perform to expected levels? Are your expectations/projections for players accurate to begin with? Sometimes you can do everything right with your analysis and the players, for whatever reason, simply don’t perform. If you cut out a 10th of your playing field by removing an entire category, you’re cutting down the available pool that you are shooting to add points in. If you do that, you had better hope that your players perform up to par, or it could be a very long season.

Can you win a league “punting” a category? You certainly can. However, you had better be damn sure about the players you roster because you greatly increase your risk by completely ignoring an entire category in the fantasy game.

Did you get your copy of the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide?

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is a borderline star in the fantasy game. If you take the season best marks from the elder Upton in the standard five offensive fantasy categories, you’d be staring at a guy with the following line: .300-24-82-89-44. Unfortunately, Upton also has hit a mere .257 in his career, has struck out at least 150 times in four of the last five years, and he always seems to be one play away from being benched for lackadaisical play. Currently ranked as the 20th outfielder according to MockDraftCentral, should Upton be going off draft boards earlier than his 64.5 ADP mark?

Let’s go season by season with Upton.

2007: He was one of nine players to go 20/20 with 80 RBI/Runs.
2008: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 85 runs.
2009: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 75 runs.
2010: He was one of two players to hit 15 HRs with 40 SBs and 85 runs.
2011: He was one of four players to go 20/30 with 80 RBI/Runs.

The point here should be obvious. As I mentioned out at the start of this piece, there are certainly issues with B.J., and in the fantasy game the biggest concern is certainly that poor batting average, but there is no denying that the guy can light up a fantasy score sheet. The thing that set apart Upton is that he posses solid power which he combines with elite speed. There’s simply no way around that. The past five years, here is what an “average” Upton effort has looked like: .257-17-69-84-37. For five years now Upton has nearly averaged a 20/40 season with 70 RBI and 85 runs. Those are big time fantasy numbers. Just ask yourself this question; how many guys in baseball can you say have a legitimate shot at 20 homers and 40 steals in 2012? It’s a pretty small group isn’t it?

As for his batting average, you’re just going to have to plan around that. Though he hit .300 in 2007, Upton has settled in as a guy who will struggle to get a hit every four at-bats (he’s been under .245 the past three years). What that means is that if you draft Upton you had better augment your club with a .300 hitter or two. The main reason that Upton isn’t going to hit much better than .250 is that he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats. Upton does take a walk though, even with all those punchouts he still owns a career 0.45 BB/K mark which is basically league average. Unless he suddenly figures it out at the dish, and the chance of that happening is pretty darn small at this point of his career, it just might be time to admit that Upton simply isn’t going to be someone who is going to help you in the batting average category.

In the fantasy game we like to down players for what they can’t do more than we prop them up for what they can do. Take the case of Michael Bourn. Everyone knows that he is the most consistent stolen base threat in the game, but most also look at him and say ‘he’s not a great fantasy option cause he never hits a homer and rarely knocks in a run.’ People fail to realize that his elite speed makes him at top-50 fantasy player every year. The same situation, at least partially, occurs with Upton. People get scared off by the poor batting average an overlook just how effective that Upton is on the base paths. Think of it like this. There are 10 men in baseball who have at least 130 steals the past four seasons. The only player in that group with 60 homers is Upton (he has 61). Not just that, only three men have 130 steals and more than 40 homers (the other two are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford). Upton will never be truly elite in the fantasy game because of that lowly average, but if he were able to channel his 2007 self – the one that hit .300 – Upton could be a top-5 fantasy outfielder in 2012.

By the way, of you’re looking to do a mock draft, Fealflicker has you covered.

By Ray Flowers

Comments: Greatest Hits

At the bottom of all my articles readers are encouraged to leave their thoughts on my work, to ask questions, or just to blow off some steam. I have to admit that there are some pretty good queries thrown up there at times. Today, I’ve compiled some of those thoughts into an article since I doubt most of you spend much time reading my responses unless they are to your own questions.

Jake – Is there any sort of format that you might suggest that combines a season long roto format along with some type of playoff at the end of the season?

BBGuys - Your issue of people stopping to care late in the year is common. Unfortunately, I don’t have a good answer on how to stop this. Reason being is this – playoffs take skill out of the mix and go more with luck. Do you want to give someone a “win” in a playoff week because they picked up Brandon Crawford and he had a better week than Troy Tulowitzki? Do you want to reward a 2-start James McDonald over a one start Roy Halladay? When you break the game down into playoff segments the sample size shrinks, and with it the luck factor goes up. To me, we are best served rewarding year long excellence versus weekly luck.

Mike – As much as I love Evan Longoria this year, were you tempted with Jacoby Ellsbury still available? For him to fall to #12 seems shocking to me.

*** This questions refers to The FSTA Draft that was held in Vegas during which I chose Longoria #10 overall instead of Ellsbury. Over at Fleaflicker they also have Longoria going off the board after Ellsbury.

BBGuys - Here’s the deal. Only 37.5% all all the top-15 selections the last eight years have returned top-15 production (that’s from the Baseball Forecaster). In essence, we all spend way too much time worry about our first round pick when they are more likely to fail to live up to expectations than to meet or exceed them. Second, Ellsbury’s game was his speed, and after averaging 60 SB his last two healthy seasons he saw his steal total fail to hit 40 last year. That’s a big concern for me. Third, never in his life did Ellsbury show 30 HR power. Remember, he had 20 homers in his first 349 games. Players just don’t hold on to gains like the one he showed last season. Sure Kirby Puckett and Jose Bautista did, but you get my point. I just can’t see Ellsbury holding on to his 17 percent HR/F rate. I also don’t think he’s a .320 hitter. If he goes .285-20-75-100-40 is he a first round pick? You could certainly argue that persuasively, but I don’t know if that would make him much different than Andrew McCutchen.

Marc in CO – In addition to waiting on a 1B, you also waited to pick a SS (Yunel Escobar in the 13th). Can you give us your thoughts on him in specific and the shortstop position in general in terms of draft strategy?

BBGuys - I waited on the shortstop because that’s how the draft played out. Also, since I had two second basemen, I didn’t need to worry about my MI spot, so it was as much a combination of factors as anything else. As for Escobar, I like what he brings. Not much upside power wise, he hits everything into the ground, an obviously he’s not a speed demon, but his skill set is stable. Take out 2010 and you have three nearly identical seasons in 2008-09, 2011. I’ll take .290-10-60-75-5 from my SS and be pretty happy with it since in reality he is my MI behind Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia.

Rick – Are you worried about the suspension of Ryan Braun? Do you think it will be the same old same old when he returns? Also now that this is out here are you worried that his numbers will fall off a cliff like Arod?

BBGuys – I’m not worried about Braun at all. Just expect 2/3 of his normal production for 2012 and you should be fine (just check out his rookie numbers to see how amazing he can be in limited playing time). MLB has done testing for years, so clearly we have to assume that Braun hasn’t been doing something illegal for a long time. In fact, I’m still not convinced that he took “steroids.”  Regardless, Braun is 28 this year – still very young. Arod is 36. Arod’s decline had nothing to do with getting of the juice, he was simply experience a slow down with age. Remember, Arod had 54 homers, 156 RBIs and a 1.067 OPS in 2007 – he used steroids in 2001-03.

Wesley – Hey Ray. What do you think of Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez? I feel they’re going to be good values and bounce back guys.

BBGuys - Two different stories. CarGo hit .295, went 20/20, and scored/knocked in 90 runs last year. There’s not much to “bounce back” from there. If he had played another 20 games we’d be talking about a .300-30-100-100-20 season. Expecting more than that is asking too much.

Crawford on the other hand is a prime bounce back candidate. according to Fleaflicker’s numbers, Crawford is being drafted inside the top-70 overall.

By Ray Flowers

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Carl Crawford: Total Failure

Yesterday in Braun Best of the Bunch, I bragged about how smart I was in suggesting taking Braun at the top of the first round in 2011. Today, I’ll throw the proverbial bucket of cold water all over myself for my other “lock” this year – Carl Crawford.

Back in January I suggested taking Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in Pick Your Poison as I wrote a whole piece defending myself for making just that decision in the FSTA Experts Draft in Las Vegas (amazingly, I still won that experts league even with CC as my first round pick). How could I have been so horribly wrong when it came to Crawford in 2011? Let’s investigate.

Here are the main points that I laid out to support the selection of Crawford back in January.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game.
From 2004-2010, Crawford was a top-13 performer in six of seven seasons. The only time he failed to live up to that lofty level was in 2008 when he played only 109 games due to injury. He was injured in 2011 as well, though he still appeared in 130 games. However, he failed miserably at the plate with a career worst 65 runs scored, his 56 RBI was his lowest total since 2004, and his 18 steals were a career worst (he’d been under 45 in each of his last seven healthy seasons). In the end he wasn’t a top-13 player. He wasn’t a top-13 outfielder. Hell, we wasn’t even in the top-213 fantasy performers in the game. He was an abject failure.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston.
The Red Sox were second in the AL with a .280 batting average and third with 203 homers, and first in runs scored (875) and RBI (842). The club also led the AL with a .349 PBP and a .461 SLG.

(3) Speed kills.
As I mentioned above, Crawford barely produced 40% of his normal total in steals, a shocking fall.

(4) Track record.
As much as I was leaning on the impeccable production history of Crawford, I was also looking at the less than terrific health record of Tulowitzki.

So what the hell went wrong with Crawford? I could say he let the money get to him, or perhaps the pressure of playing in Boston where the love of baseball is palpable in the air played a part, and we can always lean on injury as well. But the fact is he just stunk. The speed evaporated. His walk rate was a six year low. His K-rate was a career worst. His BABIP was .299, well below his career .328 mark. For goodness sakes, Crawford’s OBP was .289. His career batting average is .293.

As right as I was about Braun, I was equally as wrong about Crawford. However, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Crawford was a major bargain next year since he’s going to be drafted much later than he should be because of his down 2011 effort. Still, he’s gonna be part of a good offense, in a good park for hitters, and he’ll be just 31 years old next season. I’ll be in his corner next season yet again, even though his 2011 effort was an unmitigated disaster.

By Ray Flowers

Follow the Playoff Race

Despite the fact that the beginning of the NFL season is occupying much of the sports world’s interest, it’s about time to start checking your direcTV guide for MLB playoff times, as the postseason is just around the corner. In fact, the postseason is also nearly set, with the tightest pennant race taking place in the American League West, where the Angels have slowly but surely gained ground on the Rangers. Aside from this, and barring some very improbably comebacks and collapses, the postseason’s team roster is just about set – though the Red Sox seem to be making every effort to change that.

Thursday night the Red Sox continued their suddenly dramatic-looking late season slide by losing a 9-2 romp at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox – losers of 2 of their last 10 games and 11 of their 14 contests in September – were surely hoping for something of a turnaround. However, they lost to the Rays for the fourth time in a week, and with three more contests between the Sox and the Rays it’s possible that there could be a dead heat in the AL Wild Card race by the end of the weekend (the Sox are currently three games ahead, and both club have 13 games remaining). Don’t forget that the Sox entered September leading the AL East ahead of the Yankees as well.

Why has the team struggled so greatly of late? Injuries have certainly played a key roll.

Josh Beckett should return to the hill today after missing some time with an injured ankle. He’s been fantastic this year with a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 27 outings.

Kevin Youkilis has fallen apart. Youkilis has a hip issue, and a hernia situation that will likely require surgery at the end of the season. Youk is hitting a mere .167 in September as the team has fallen apart.

Jed Lowrie continues to deal with a shoulder issue that last limited him to just one hit in September in 24-bats.

In terms of performance, Carl Crawford can’t keep his batting average over .250 (it’s currently at .249).

Daniel Bard has a loss in each of his last three appearances and in 4.2 innings in September he’s allowed eight runs.

Things have been so bad of late that Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 0.41 ERA and 0.36 WHIP in 22 innings since the All-Star break, hasn’t been handed a save opportunity since August 18th.

Once again, the AL East is providing most of the drama as we inch closer to the playoffs.

Can the Rays catch the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot and send the BoSox home without a playoff birth?

Can the suddenly hot Cardinals, now just 4.5 games out, catch the Braves for the NL Wild Card? Will the Rangers be able to hold off the Angels, whom the lead by 3.5 games, in the AL West?

No matter who makes it to the playoffs, be sure to check out the direcTV Guide for the scheduled times of the playoff matchups.

Around the Horn: August25, 2011

(1)  Tommy Hanson – more tests on shoulder.

(2) Aramis Ramirez – absolutely on fire.

(3) Waiver-wire claims: Jim Thome, Heath Bell, Carlos Pena. For more see Waiver-Wire Claims.

(4) Carlos Ruiz has 5-straight two hit games.

(5) Matt Wieters showing signs of improvement.

(6) Carl Crawford finally hitting like… Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers