Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Outfielders

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

A few days ago I posted my Buy Low options for the infield. Today, I continue my journey by moving on to the outfield where I’ll suggest purchasing guys which appears to be on their last legs but actually may not be.

Carl Crawford: .243-6-31-33-8 in 263 ABs
I’m going down with the ship. Back in January I championed Crawford in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo where I pointed out that in six of the past seven years Crawford was in the top-15 amongst all hitters in the fantasy game. The only time he missed was 2008 when he was injured. Clearly he has no shot of reaching that level in 2011, but he should be back on the field within a week (hamstring) with history  taunting us. Will you bite with the expectation that Crawford will return to being the disruptive force he has always been, or are you going to wallow in your wet socks and expect him to struggle like he did at the start of the year?

Jason Heyward: .226-9-22-31-5 in 230 ABs
Heyward has been one of the biggest disappointments in the game this season, and I’ve heard of people in 12 team leagues who have dealt him for players like Josh Willingham and Darwin Barney, or flat out released him. I certainly hope you weren’t one of those people. Heyward has been called out by the team and his teammates for being “soft” which has led to many in the fantasy game questioning his career path. Don’t be one of those people. I continue to say it, but let me repeat it – the young man, he’s just 21, has Hall of Fame talent. I’ll take a chance on skills like this anytime.

Alex Rios: .213-6-21-41-6 in 320 ABs
Ozzie Guillen has show remarkable patience with Rios be it because he is stubborn, or because he is looking at the facts. (1) Rios has hit at least 15 homers with 71 RBI, 63 runs and 15 steals each of the past five years. Only he and Bobby Abreu have done that. I’m NOT saying he gets there this season, but you don’t just throw out 5-straight seasons like that when a guy is only 31 years old. (2) His BB/K rate is better than his career average (0.62 to 0.40). His GB/FB ratio of 1.15 is an exact match for his career mark. His 17.4 percent LD-rate is down from his career level but it would still be a three year high. His BABIP is only .221, some .088 points below his career mark. Only once in his career did he finish a season below .300 and that was .273 in 2009. His HR/F mark is 5.5 and that would be a career low. Add that all up and a rebound certainly seems possible for a player who should still be in his prime.

Ichiro Suzuki: .270-1-23-46-23 in 374 ABs
In 10 seasons Ichiro has never failed to hit .300 with 200 hits and 25 steals. He’s gonna blow past the steals mark yet again, but the other two categories are in doubt (he is on pace for 180 hits). Ichiro has hit .323 in the second half in his career, and he’s going to need a push like that to get to .300. Given that he working on his best BB/K mark since 2002, he should have a shot. His current line drive rate is also a three year high, and he’s not hitting the ball in the air at all which should help (his fly ball rate would be his second worst, or in this case best, mark). A .354 BABIP producer, he’s only had one season in his career under .333. You think that his current.293 mark is gonna stay that low even as his age advances?

Jason Werth: .215-10-31-40-11 in 326 ABs
When you sign a deal that well in excess of $100 million dollar expectations will follow. Has he lived up to those expectations? The answer is a resounding no. He’s got a career worst LD-rate (16.0 percent), a career worst GB-rate (45.2 percent), a five year worst in the HR/F category (10.6 percent) and a career worst BABIP (.258). The two numbers really stick out though. Over the past five years Werth has always had a HR/F rate of at least 13.3 percent, and his career mark is 15.5. That’s substantially better than we’ve seen from him so far. Also, his BABIP is .323 in his career and has never been under .304 in a season. You really think he’s gonna undershoot that by .050 points this season? Werth is also on pace to produce 18 homers, 56 RBI, 72 runs and 20 steals this season. While that’s a far fry from his 2010 effort (27-85-106-13), considering that he can’t really perform any worse than he currently is has got to leave some hope that better days lay ahead, doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers

Ray’s Random Musings

photo © 2011 Matthew Straubmuller | more info (via: Wylio)

Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).

Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.

Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical  woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.

The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.

Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of  32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.

* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.

* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.

Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 27, 2011

(1) Russell Branyan to steal playing time from Mark Trumbo?

(2) J.P. Arencebia to see a playing time boost.

(3) Homer Bailey – out with a shoulder issue.

(4) Phil Humber could be removed from the White Sox rotation.

(5) Is Carl Crawford finally back?

(6) Rockies shake it up. Release Jose Lopez, call up Eric Young Jr.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 3, 2011

photo © 2010 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Looking to buy low and sell high. Would you trade Alfonso Soriano and Luke Scott for Carl Crawford or Carlos Gonzalez?
– @cladiusnoster

Everyone is talking about how awful Carl Crawford (.181-1-7-7-4) and Hanley Ramirez (.191-1-11-11-3) have performed but we haven’t heard many roundly criticizing the performance of CarGo (.232-1-14-13-3). It’s really pointless to talk about projections this early in the year so I won’t other than to say Gonzalez is light years from the top-5 performer he was last year (.336-34-117-111-26). Hitting just .143 in 49 road at-bats this year, CarGo still hasn’t figured out how to hit on the road (career: .260/.307/.405). Given his slow start, and his career long struggles on the road you might have to admit that he has no chance to repeat his numbers from last year. Still, both he and Crawford simply have to improve upon what they are doing – they’re far too talented not to. And speaking of Crawford, check this out. Crawford’s .431 OPS for April was the worst month of his career. Here are the yearly lows, for a month of time, for his career.

2010: .683 in August
2009: .708 in April
2008: .655 in July
2007: .660 in June
2006: .695 in April
2005: .683 in May
2004: .706 in August
2003: .553 in April

So the good news with Carl is twofold. First, he’s never had a month remotely as bad as the one he just completed so it doesn’t figure that his performance will continue along these lines. Second, his .708 OPS for the month of April in his career is the worst he has posted for the six full months of the season.

Scott is what he is. The last three years he has bit between 23 and 27 homers, knocked in between 65 and 77 runs and scored 61 to 70 times. Boring but productive. Soriano has been blasting away hitting 11 homers in his first 27 games. Still, he’s hitting only .267 this year, hasn’t hit .285 since 2007 and has just five steals in his last 174 games played. He’s a solid power bat and one with more upside than Scott, but he isn’t going to hit 45 homers this year.

So to answer the question, if I could trade two solid bats in Scott/Soriano and get back an elite level talent like Crawford or Gonzalez I’d do it.

Should I pick up Scott Sizemore to replace Gordon Beckham?
– @ryanmully

Shockingly Carlos Guillen is still on the shelf with a knee injury.
Will Rhymes has hit .221 with a .556 OPS in 68 at-bats.
Second base is a black hole of offense for the Tigers.

Down at Triple-A the Tigers had a guy who was hitting .408 with 15 RBI and 17 runs scored in 23 games. Huh. So what did the brilliant brain trust in Detroit do? They said to themselves ‘maybe we should call up this guy who is hitting like Ty Cobb.’ Hello Scott Sizemore. Considering how amazing he has been at Triple-A and how awful the offense has been in the bigs, it’s shocking it took this long. I’m not just talking about the month of April this year with Sizemore either. In 667 at-bats at Triple-A Sizemore has hit .315 with 19 homers, 85 RBI, 115 runs scored, 19 steals and a .880 OPS. Of course, his numbers in the bigs have failed to impress (.224-3-14-19-3 in 143 at-bats), but those Triple-A numbers are impressive.

Beckham has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. He’s failed to hit for average (.214) or for power (two homers and five doubles leading to a .320 SLG), isn’t getting on base (.268) and has an abysmal .588 OPS. Maybe it’s time to admit something that most don’t want to admit – Beckham simply isn’t ready to be a difference maker. In 925 big league at bats he’s hit .255 with a .324 OBP and a .405 SLG. The league average since he began his career are .262/.330/.415. That’s right, he hasn’t even been big league average in any of those three measures. Add in the fact that he has just 25 homers and only 12 steals, and this might be one of those situations where your eyes were bigger than your stomach (you know what I’m talking about those of you that always super size everything). Over his last 547 at-bats he’s produced a 5×5 line of .258-11-59-72-5. That’s passable but nothing more.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say I’d take a shot on Sizemore. He may not be able to transition his Triple-A success to the bigs, and he may not even be starting in three weeks, but there is no question that he is swinging a better bat right now.

I’m starting to lose patience with Austin Jackson. Do you think he’s going to get back on track any time soon?
– @caldevil3219

We’re still on this? Jackson was lucky last year leading baseball with a .396 BABIP. I wrote, probably 13 times this offseason, that there was no way he would be able to sustain that level. Toss in his huge K-rate, it was 27.5 percent, and there was no chance he was gonna hit better than .290 again. This year his average is down at .188 because (a) his BABIP has fallen to .282 and (b) because his K-rate is through the roof at 35.7 percent. Things should improve, in fact by a lot if he doesn’t end up being sent to Triple-A, but there was never a truly realistic shot that he would improve upon his 5×5 numbers from last season.

Thoughts on Ian Stewart for his return to Colorado?
– @gmanesq

It’s funny. Everyone hated Stewart two weeks ago and now everyone want’s to add him because he’s back with the Rockies. Here’s what I see.

(1) Stewart killed it at Triple-A hitting .406 with three homers and 13 RBI in 10 games. That’s what he should do though against the inferior competition.

(2) Stewart had only two hits in 28 at-bats with the Rockies to start the year. You say ‘small sample size” and I agree. Still, the guy has hit .241 in almost 1,150 at-bats in the bigs, so clearly he’s never going to help you in that category.

(3) The guy is a whiff machine. In his career he’s struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (32.3 percent). You can be Adam Dunn and have success doing that or you can be Mark Reynolds and struggle miserably.

Stewart is what he has always been and what he will always be. When he runs into one the ball will fly into the cheap seats. Unfortunately, he’ll never hit for enough of an average to be an elite option at the hot corner. With Todd Helton playing well at first base, there is a bit of squeeze or at-bats in the infield. If Jose Lopez remembers how to hit, and Ty Wigginton regains his health, it’s not at all certain that Stewart will play every day. Stewart is a fine NL-only option, but he had better be nothing more than your backup third basemen in mixed leagues at the moment.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 (the stations change to XM87 and Sirius210 on Wednesday).

Around the Horn: April 29, 2011

(1) Find or Fraud? – Sam Fuld.

(2) Travis Hafner already hurt.

(3) Chris Coghlan hurt – what’s his worth?

(4) Carl Crawford – what the hell is going on?

(5) Erik Bedard and Mike McCarthy.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 22, 2011

(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.

(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?

(4) James Loney looks terrible.

(5) Mat Latos struggling.

(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April8, 2011

(1) How imminent are the injury returns of Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Domonic Brown?

(2) Are the Red Sox in panic mode already? It seems like they might be.

(3) How good is Starlin Castro at just 21 years old?

(4) How out of control is Derek Lowe? Is he “breaking out?”

(5) Can Willie Bloomquist continue his torrid pace?

By Ray Flowers

Anatomy of a Draft: Vegas Style

This is the final piece of my three part series reviewing the FSTA Draft that was held in Las Vegas last week (ah, how the good times fade fast don’t they?).

Part I - I gave a review of the team I drafted in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA.

PART II - I discussed why I chose Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki in the first round in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo.

In PART III, thanks to the work of Jason Collette of Dock of the Rays, we have the answer as to who made the best selections in the FSTA Draft compared to the current ADP data (you can see the entirety of Jason’s work in the spreadsheet he put together of the draft). In what follows I’ll discuss some of the key selections that stood out, either players that I got on the cheap or guys I might have reached for according to ADP, and give my thoughts on why I made the decisions that I did.

Carl Crawford (taken 7th, ADP of 16): You can click in the link above for PART II to see why I think Crawford’s current ADP mark is way off.

Jimmy Rollins (taken 33, ADP of 42): The last of the elite shortstops on the board was my second choice with my third round pick with the first one being Ryan Howard (he was taken 32nd). For my thoughts on Rollins see Top-10 SS for 2011.

Brandon Phillips (59 taken , ADP of 35): A nice value given where he was drafted, and because he was the last of the top shelf second sackers left on the board. Coming off a “down” year he still scored 100 runs, hit 18 homers, stole 16 bags and batted .275. I’ll take a repeat of that while knowing that he went .276-20-98-78-25 in 2009.

Aramis Ramirez (taken 85, ADP of 104): Aramis is scaring some people off with his down 2010 effort that included a bunch of time on the shelf (he had just 465 at-bats). Would it surprise you to know that he still had 25 homers, the same total as Ryan Zimmerman and three more than Evan Longoria? Heck, his RBI total of 83 was only two less than Zimmerman and Mark Reynolds.

Dan Haren (taken 98, ADP of 52): The steal of the draft? I almost took Haren in the 6th round, then the 7th, before finally selecting him in the 8th. From 2008-10, Haren is only of only three hurlers to win at least 12 games, with an ERA under 3.95 and at least 200 Ks each season. The others are two pretty strong hurlers – Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

Joakim Soria (taken 111, ADP of 78): Drafting at this point of the year is tricky, you don’t even know who the 9th inning arm will be for some clubs, and that was reflected in the draft as most of the experts waited on taking their first closer. I still remember being burned last year when I took Joe Nathan early “knowing” he was a lock for 35 saves. Hopefully this call works out better.

Aaron Hill (taken 124, ADP of 180): I needed power, so I’m not worried about having overshot Hill’s ADP by so much. With guys like Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts and Howie Kendrick the best options left on the board at second, and already having a roster loaded with speedy guys, I needed pop and Hill was the best option left to fill that need. After all, Hill is second at the second base position the last two years with 62 homers and third with 176 RBI.

Carlos Lee (taken 163, ADP of 132): A solid choice for two reasons. First, he also qualifies at first base giving me some depth behind Prince Fielder and another option as a corner infielder. Second, while his bat is slowing, Lee still hit 24 homers with 89 RBI last season. That makes it 11-straight years with 24 homers and at least 80 RBI.

James Shields (taken 189, ADP of 173): He might have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year. Shields went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA despite a career best K/9 mark of 8.28 and a superb K/BB ratio of 3.67. If things normalize he should be back on track and that means posting an ERA of about 4.00 with a 1.25 WHIP and about 175 Ks, a point I made, in depth, in Breaking Down: James Shields.

Scott Baker (taken 228, ADP of 183): He may never put it all together, but we’ve all have a crush on someone that doesn’t really make sense (I don’t even want to hear who some of you have fantasies about). Still, I can’t help but think if he ever put it all together that he could be a difference maker. If we take the best numbers of career and combine them we end up with 15 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 162 Ks.

Carlos Zambrano (taken 241, ADP of 331): I guess no one is buying his unbelievable finish to 2010 (8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 Ks over 74 IP)? There are valid concerns about his workload and his absolutely bonkers personality, but the guy can still pitch when he’s healthy and motivated.

Ryan Madson (taken 280, ADP of 400): One of the best right-handed setup men in baseball. Madson is second in line to take over the 9th inning in Philadelphia, and you can argue that he is coming off his best season with career bests in K/9 (10.87), BB/9 (2.21), K/BB (4.92) and WHIP (1.04). Now if he can just avoid trying to beat things up when he is angry.

Nate McLouth (taken 293, ADP of 400): The man gets no respect. The Braves say he will open the year as the starter in CF, he is just 29 years old, and he went 26/23 in 2008 and 20/19 in 2009. You can hear more of my thoughts on McLouth in Around the Horn: January 21, 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo

I’m still hearing some snickers about my decision to roster Carl Crawford over Troy Tulowitzki with the 7th overall selection in the FSTA Draft that was just held in Las Vegas (for a review of my squad click on the link to Vegas Baby, and the FSTA). I still think it was the right decision, so I thought I would lay out my thoughts on the matter to show why I shouldn’t be castigated by the masses for taken the speedster over the shortstop.

(1) Crawford is as consistent as any performer in the game. Not only is he consistent from year to year, his performance is elite. At Fanball there is a tool called the Player Rater which we use to rank players fantasy value in any given season. Here is a review of where Crawford ranked amongst hitters over the past seven years using the following parameters: a 12-team mixed league using standard 5×5 scoring with 14 hitters, nine pitchers and a $260 salary cap (based on a 67/33 split of spending on hitters and pitchers).

2004: 13th overall, $25.17
2005: 10th overall, $29.44
2006: 6th overall, $31.31
2007: 11th overall, $29.03
2008: 104th overall, $8.77 (he was limited to just 109 games played)
2009: 4th overall, $33.58
2010: 3rd overall, $37.86

You can click on the following link to find the actual Player Rater Tool.

Honestly, I almost feel like I can end the debate on who I should have taken 7th overall with just those numbers. It’s alright if you admit that you are shocked by those totals by the way. Since 2004, I defy you to find a more consistently excellent player than Crawford (other than Albert Pujols of course). In his last six healthy seasons, Crawford has been no worse than the 13th best offensive performer in the fantasy game. Moreover, if we remove his injury shortened 2008 effort we find that his average “finish” in his last six healthy seasons is 7.8. What pick did I take Crawford again? Oh yeah, #7.

(2) Crawford will be a part of an excellent offense in Boston. It’s not like Crawford’s teammates in Florida were terrible by any means, but the Red Sox work pitchers about as hard as any offense in baseball. Plus, Crawford should love slapping balls off the Green Monster which means we should set the floor at .300 for his average. After all, Fenway was the best park in the American League last year in terms of hitting doubles according to Bill James’ Park Indices (it was 22% above “average” in the category).

(3) Speed kills. Crawford is pretty much a mortal lock for 45 steals having hit that mark in each of the seven seasons in his career in which he played at least 140 games. If he can stay healthy you can book the steals. Unlike others who slap the ball around the field and run like the dickens (guys like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis and Michael Bourn - the only men in the game who exceeded or matched Crawford’s steal total of 47 in 2010), Crawford also has some pop. He’s never hit 20 homers but he has averaged 15 homers a season his last five healthy years. Last year Pierre, Gardner, Davis and Bourn hit a combined 13 homers.

(4) I know Tulowitzki plays shortstop, and there is something to be said for position scarcity, but his track record isn’t enough to prove to me that he deserves to be a top-10 option – despite the generally prevailing wisdom that says he not only should be a top-10 guy but that he could even be a top-5 overall option. Consider the following points.

(A) Twice in the last three seasons Tulowitzki has failed to play even 125 games. Remember, only once in eight years has Crawford failed to appear in 140 games.

(B) As talented as Tulowitzki is, I worry a bit about his performance. The last two seasons Tulo has produced line drive rates of 18.4 and 15.0 percent. The big league average is about 19-20 percent. I’m not saying Tulowitzki won’t continue to hit around .300, but there aren’t many guys in the game that hit .300 with line drive rates that low.

(C) Tulo doesn’t strike out too much, his career K-rate is 19.1 percent, but he also doesn’t walk too much either (9.5 percent BB-rate). Again, this isn’t a condemnation of Tulo, but a 0.56 BB/K mark for his career isn’t terrific. A little more patience at the dish would serve him well.

(D) As great as Tulo was last year to end the season when he hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, he was merely really good over his first 62 games (.306-9-34). Are you certain he isn’t the first half guy? There is nothing wrong with a .300-20-80 season from a shortstop, but you don’t draft a guy in the top-10 is those are the numbers you expect.

To me, the decision to take Crawford over Tulowitzki was a no brainer. You can talk position scarcity all you want with Tulo, and it is certainly a valid point, but I would counter that with Crawford’s consistently excellent stolen base marks. I’d also fall back on the main point I made at the start of this piece – Carl Crawford has been an elite performer in six of the past seven seasons, and when I say elite there is no hyperbole involved. Tulo may one day get to that level, but for now this battle royale between Crawford and Tulowitzki ends with CC scoring a knockout in the 7th round.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers