Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

The End of Baseball?

“And I saw, and behold, a pale horse, and its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him; and they were given power over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the Earth.”
- The beginning of the Apocalypse in the Book of Revelation (by the way everyone, there is no “S” in the title of that work).

To transition this verse over to the world of baseball, are the Yankees “Death” and the Red Sox “Hades?”

The Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Because of tax related issues, the club has a deal in place with Gonzalez (wink, wink) for a reported 7-years and $154 million (the announcement will have to wait until April. Oh, and I’m not buying Gonzalez saying earlier today that there is no deal in place).

Was that all the spending the Red Sox engaged in this week? Why of course not. They went out and added Carl Crawford on a deal that is being reported as a 7-years, $142 million (thanks to Jayson Werth for driving that price up – he can expect a huge flat screen TV under his tree from Mr. Crawford).

So, in the span of mere days, the Red Sox invested nearly $300 million in two players.

The Yankees? They have remained relatively quiet so far, a shock to be sure, but it’s only a matter of time before they land their man – Cliff Lee – on a deal that is expected to grow to well over $130 million (potentially as high as $150). Oh wait, I almost forgot. The Yankees did invest over $80 million to retain all-time greats Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera, so it’s not like they have completely sat out the offseason party.

Welcome to the world of 21st century baseball folks.

This should come as no surprise though. According to ESPN, and I’ll get back to them in a moment, the Yankees payroll in 2010 was $206,738,389. No other team in baseball was over the $160,913,333 that the – you guessed it – Red Sox spent. In fact, they were the only teams in baseball over $150 million. Moreover, only eight teams in baseball, including the aforementioned Yanks and Sox, spent $100 million as the World Champion San Francisco Giants just missed joining the group at just slightly over $98.5 million.

Need something to talk about at your companies holiday party? If you add up the payrolls of the four lowest paying teams in 2010 – the Pirates, Padres, Diamondbacks and Athletics – you would just barely move past the Red Sox team salary at $172,424,366 – some $34 million short of the Yankees outlay.

You need some more data to share when the spiked eggnog starts to wear out? If we average out the prospective deals of Crawford and Gonzalez we end up with an annual salary for the duo of about $42.3 million. That’s more than either the Pirates or Padres spent on their entire teams in 2010.

I think you get the point.

I’m a free market guy, an ideas such as income redistribution that are often floated by people in our government disgust me. However, will you permit me to be a bit of a hypocrite here? Thank you.

Baseball has to do something to rectify this situation. You simply can’t have one team spending, literally, five times as much as others. How in the world can there be any competitive balance in such a world? Speaking of that, the real shock in all of this might be how in the world the Yankees or Red Sox don’t win the World Series every year given their financial commitments. Am I in favor of a salary cap? It hurts me to type this, but I think baseball has to move in that direction. It might be beneficial to not only have a cap, but also to have some kind of flooring like the NHL does. In truth, I would be in favor of there being a flooring more than an upper echelon limit that would impede teams from improving their club. Revenue sharing and the like could be brought into play, but whatever decisions are made, something must be done.

And this brings me back to ESPN. How are they culpable? Have you tried to watch your hometown team on ESPN lately? Unless you live in New York, Boston, Philadelphia or Chicago, ESPN doesn’t admit that you exist. Ever watch Sportscenter, or as I have dubbed it “Yankees – Red Sox television?” A whole generation of kids who don’t live in those cities are never exposed to any other clubs. Have 95 percent of people in the United States ever seen the wondrous Andrew McCutchen play? Does anyone outside of California realize that the Athletics had the best starting pitching in the American League last season? By focusing so heavily on the “big” markets, ESPN is effectively telling people, tangentially, that the other teams don’t matter. So, is anyone surprised that the Giants and Rangers World Series was the lowest rated Series in television history? I mean, for goodness sakes, it’s not like San Francisco isn’t a huge media market. Moreover, the Rangers had never won the World Series while the Giants hadn’t won since 1954, so there is no reason the baseball universe shouldn’t have been riveted by the matchup.

Baseball isn’t broken by any means, but the path they are currently on will one day end up in ruins. Before The Four Horseman come to wreak havoc on the land, hopefully the powers that be in baseball will avert the disaster by policing themselves a bit better to ensure the ultimately survival of the whole sport, and not just the well being of teams that play their home games in two cities.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Who Needs September?

Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP on Tuesday despite the fact that he played all of five games after August 31st. Was that honor deserved? Let’s explore this and other issues surrounding the 2010 AL MVP Vote.

Back in early October, I wrote a piece entitled Who is the AL MVP? I chose Miguel Cabrera as the winner of the award, over Hamilton, and here is the most germane point to my belief that Hamilton should not have been the winner. Hamilton became the first player to appear in fewer than 15 games in September to win an MVP award since 1960 (Dick Groat). Think about that. Hamilton played the fewest September games of any MVP in half a century. Given that Cabrera was virtually the same performer over the course of the year, and that he did “it” over 27 more games, it seems obvious to me that he should have been the selection. Apparently, I’m in the minority as people seem to still cling to the belief that the winner of the award should come from a playoff bound team if everything else is basically equal. Apparently “equal” is achieved when a guy plays a full month less of the season than someone else.

Some more facts.

(1) This marked the sixth time a Ranger won the award: Juan Gonzalez (1996, 98), Jeff Burroughs (1974), Ivan Rodriguez (1999) and Alex Rodriguez (2003).

(2) Hamilton was the 10th CF ever to win the award in the American League (a CF has won the award five times in the NL).

Now on to the rest of the voting.

27 first place votes went to Hamilton and Cabrera. Where did the last one go? It went to major league home run leader Jose Bautista who came in 4th overall. The one man to vote for Jose Bautista as the winner was Shi Davidi from Toronto.

Carl Crawford came in 7th in the voting with 98 points as he was left off seven ballots. He could have earned a $700,000 bonus if all seven of those empty ballots had placed him 7th or higher. Another Ray, Evan Longoria, cam in 6th in the voting with 100 points.

Delmon Young finished 10th in the voting. I admit the .298-21-112 line is mighty solid, but do you really think Delmon was the 10th most valuable player in the AL in 2010 when he posted a .333 OBP an a .826 OPS? I certainly don’t, not when the AL average for OBP was .327 or when you realize that his OPS was merely 20th amongst qualifiers.

Twins’ teammate Jim Thome finished with more MVP points (two), than guys like Mark Teixeira (one) and Joakim Soria (one). Thome was terrific this season hitting an impressive .283/.412/.627, but he was limited to only 25 homers because of just 276 at-bats. How he got any AL MVP love is totally beyond me.

As for hurlers, the highest ranking pitcher on the list was another Ray – Rafael Soriano – who finished with 21 points. I think he did a wonderful job, but I still find it odd that he was the top pitcher in the voting. To further build on the voting madness with pitchers, AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez received six points, runner up David Price zero, and third place finisher CC Sabathia got 13. If you don’t understand that join the fricken club.

By Ray Flowers

First Round, 2011

It’s months away, and you’re likely either (a) intensely watching the playoffs, (b) knee deep in fantasy football or (C) all excited about fantasy hockey or basketball, but it’s never too early to look ahead. So, and I’m sure this list will change innumerable times before the actual 2011 drafting season is upon us, in honor of my Review: First Round, 2010 article in which I looked back at the top-15 choices in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft from the just completed season, here is my early projection of what the first round of a 2011 draft might look like.

15- Alex Rodriguez
He’s hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI in each of the past 13 seasons, and that is the longest streak in MLB history. He’s the Yankee I think will go in the first round over Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.

14- Evan Longoria
Entering his fourth season, his career bests in the 5×5 categories would result in a .294-33-113-100-15 line.

13- David Wright
Rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to go .283-29-103-87-19. Wright has hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals in five of the last six years.

12- Josh Hamilton
I wouldn’t take him this early, he’s still a big health risk in my eyes, but he did lead baseball with a .359 average, and he has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in two of the past three seasons.

11- Chase Utley
An injury limited him to 115 games, but there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to go .285-25-90-100-15 yet again in 2011.

10- Adam Wainwright
Over the past two years Wainwright has 39 victories (2nd in baseball), a 2.53 ERA (2nd), 425 Ks (7th), 3.48 K/BB (10th) and 463.1 IP (6th).

9- Roy Halladay
Lets look at Halladay’s numbers the past two years – 38 wins (3rd), 2.61 ERA (3rd), 427 Ks (6th), 6.57 K/BB (1st) and 489.2 IP (1st). Barely a difference between him and Wainwright.

8- Troy Tulowitzki
He appeared in only 60 games in the second half but still hit .323 with 18 homers, 61 RBI an a 1.020 OPS. Dude is a star.

7- Joey Votto
The likely NL MVP was second in the NL in batting average (.324), third in homers (37), third in RBI (113) and first in OPS (1.024).

6- Miguel Cabrera
His numbers are a near carbon copy of Votto’s (.328-38-126 with a 1.042 OPS) though Miggy gets the nod as the higher selection because he has done it for longer. Amazingly, Cabrera is only five months older.

5- Carlos Gonzalez
He was flipping amazing in ’10 (.336-34-117-111-26), but he must learn how to hit on the road (.289-8-41 with a .775 OPS).

4- Carl Crawford
If we remove the 2008 season, CC has gone at least .301-11-68-89-46 in each of the past five seasons.

3- Hanley Ramirez
He disappointed some after a monstrous 2009 (.342-24-106-101-27) as he produced a 5×5 line of “only” .300-21-76-92-32.

2- Ryan Braun
I’ve got the sneaking suspicion that we haven’t seen the best from him yet, and that is saying something when you consider that his 162 game average is .307-36-118-111-18.

1- Albert Pujols
Until someone dethrones the king, he remains my choice as the top selection. There isn’t a more consistently excellent option in the game – period.

By Ray Flowers

Review: First Round, 2010

The first round of any fantasy draft is huge. There’s no surer way to ruin your fantasy season than to blow your first round pick on an under performing player, or one who ends up injured. At least that is conventional wisdom around most parts. However is it true when so many first round choices, year after year, fail to live up to expectations?

Here is a review of the first round for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft we did for our 2010 Annual Fantasy Baseball Magazine. How did our top-15 choices play out now that the 2010 season is complete (the NFBC’s main event is made up of 15-team leagues)?

One final note, in parenthesis is the ranking that each player finished the 2010 season with according to our Player Rater tool. If a player has “miss” after his name, he failed to finish in the top-50.

1- Albert Pujols (2nd)
In 10 years he has never, not once, failed to go at least .312-32-103-99. This year he was far better at .312-42-118-118-14.

2- Hanley Ramirez (11th)
He was a bit disappointing with just 21 homers an a mere .300 average, but he still went 20/30 while scoring more than 90 runs.

3- Alex Rodriguez (48th)
Potentially never has such a powerful season – 30 homers and 125 RBI – seemed so disappointing. A-Rod hit only .270, scored just 74 runs and stole a piddly four bags.

4- Ryan Braun (12th )
He failed to hit 30-homers for the first time with 25, but he still hit .304 with 103 RBI, 101 runs and 14 steals. He has been dynamic in his four year career.

5- Chase Utley – MISS
Injury limited him to 115 games, and the results was his first season with less than 22 homers, 93 RBI and 93 runs scored in six seasons (.275-16-65-75-13).

6- Mark Teixeira – MISS
He hit a terrible .136 in April and never really got on track finishing at .256 (career .286). He still was able to put up another 30-100 season though (33-108) while scoring 113 runs.

7- Miguel Cabrera (5th)
If not for Mr. Pujols, Mr. Cabrera would be seen by more fans for what he is – a player on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cabrera was second in the AL with a .328 average, third in homers with 38, and first in RBI with 126. Plus, he was my choice for the AL MVP (give Who is the AL MVP a read).

8- Matt Kemp – MISS
I predicted he would fall in 2009. I was just a year early. Kemp hit a poor .249, whiffed 170 times and was caught stealing 15 times as he had more than one run in with the coaching staff in L.A. He did have value though with 28 homers, 89 RBI and 82 runs scored.

9- Ryan Howard – (49th)
He hit 31 bombs with 108 RBI, but it was the first time in five years that he failed to go deep 45 times with 136 RBI.

10- Jacoby Ellsbury – MISS
The biggest bust of 2010 as he appeared in just 18 games.

11- Carl Crawford (3rd)
About to be a very rich man in free agency as he yet again was an all-around beast (.307-19-90-110-47).

12- Adrian Gonzalez (34th)
He plays in a terrible park for hitters, and did hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI and 87 runs, but most were expecting more after he averaged 35 homers, 106 RBI and 98 runs the previous three seasons.

13- Prince Fielder – MISS
If I said Fielder hit 32 homers and scored 94 runs, you’d be nonplussed but pleased. However he slumped to .261 and drove in just 83 runs a year after platting a career best 141 runs so it was clearly a disappointing effort.

14- Ian Kinsler – MISS
I had the pick here, and I felt good about taking Mr. 30/30 with my first selection. Alas, his season was one of injury including that stubborn ankle issue that really held him down early in the year. A season of .286-9-45-73-15 is solid for a second sacker — if he was your 14th round pick, not the 14th player taken overall.

15- Evan Longoria (22nd)
Almost matched his draft day cost as he pushed his average up to .294 with 46 doubles, five triples and five steals (all career bests). He did produce a 3-year low in homers (22) while losing nine RBI (104) and four runs (96) from his ’09 effort.

Of these 15 guys, do you know how many returned first round value according to our Player Rater? The answer is a mere five: Braun, Cabrera, Crawford, Pujols and Ramirez.

All of this just goes to show you that the old adage that drafts are won or lost in the first round may not be true because I bet a whole bunch of people won leagues taking one of the 10 guys mentioned here who didn’t finish in the top-50 this season.

By Ray Flowers