Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

 

By Ray Flowers

Friday's Fantasy Notes

As we head into what will be a glorious weekend of sports that includes NBA and NHL playoffs and game after game of MLB action, here are a few of the stories that really piqued my interest as I prepare myself to hit the shower and shave the old beard in my attempt, however feeble, to impress the ladies with my presence this weekend.

Rich Harden lasted just 3.2 innings on Friday against the Marlins as he was pounded for six hits, four walks and five runs as he left with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through his five starts. Amazingly, he has 37 K in his 24.2 IP, good for a stupendous 13.50 K/9 mark despite all the struggles with the strike zone. He is a real mixed bag right now. He has lasted six innings in three of his starts but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the other two.

One is going up, the other going down. Hanley Ramirez finally returned to the action on Friday, his first appearance since injuring his hand on Monday when he was hit by a pitch. He struck out in his lone at-bat. Down south in Texas, Josh Hamilton and his sore rib cage has finally resulted in the team placing him on the DL (retroactive to April 27th meaning he will be eligible to return on May 12th). As a result, Andruw Jones just may be looking at an increase in playing time, and as crazy as it sounds, he might actually deserve it. Through 32 at-bats this season he is batting a fantastic .344 with a 1.304 OPS thanks to a total of three home runs and five doubles. He has also scored 12 runs in only 11 games, and just maybe he has turned the corner after looking about as useful as pocket lint last season.

When was the last time you caught Bull Durham starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon? Do yourself a favor if its been a while, see it again. When the talk about classic sports movies, there may be no finer example on celluloid about baseball.

Ryan Theriot hit one home run last season in 580-AB. On Friday he went deep for the first time this season, in just his 22nd game, as he socked a grand slam. At the other end of the spectrum we have Carl Crawford who has the most at-bats this season without going deep (92). Only slightly better than him is Alex Rios who has gone deep just once in 101 ABs and Jacoby Ellsbury who has one tater in 94 ABs. As for Rios, what the hell has happened to his power at the dish? After going deep 24 times in 2007 Rios regressed to just 15 long balls last season and now sits with a grand total of 16 home runs in his last 736 at-bats. I don’t want to write the guy off, especially since I drafted him in multiple leagues this season, but that lack of pop is distressing, especially considering that he has swiped a mere two bags in 24 games this season.

The matchup everyone was hoping to see this NHL post season will happen as the Washington Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2. Three of the most luminous stars in the game will face off in Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby has been great in his young career, his star is in danger of being eclipsed due to the play of Ovechkin and Malkin, two of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy this season (the NHL MVP). It will be one hell of a series with other stars like Mike Green and Alexander Semin also involved, so if you are one of those people who still are unsure about the game of hockey, this could certainly be the series that pushes you to the opinion of this writer – it is a great game, perhaps the best that can be viewed in person with it’s combination of skill, speed and physicality.