Hurlers: Mound Movement

The start of major league baseball season is getting closer by the hour, and in less than a month Spring Training will officially start rolling. I’m excited too. Today I will review some of the recent player movement on the hill. I’ll talk about some hurlers who are changing roles, have a brief discussion of a guy who has a great mustache who was injured while shoveling snow, and I’ll also discuss a woman that my mom thinks would make a great wife to one Ray Flowers.

Daniel Bard was a relative star as a setup man out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. His role was changed last season, the Sox mistakenly thought he would be better served as a starter, and the results were disastrous. In 2010-11, as a reliever mind you, he posted a 2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 150 Ks in 147.2 innings. Last season? Bard made 17 appearances, 10 as a starter, and here is what happened: 6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.76 K/9. He went from elite to performing like he should be in Double-A virtually overnight. The good news is that he will return to the bullpen this year and that he has been able to rediscover his “old” arm slot. The Sox should have one heck of a pen this season with Bard, Tazawa, Uehara, Bailey and Hanrahan. Wow, that’s an impressive group of arms.

Brandon Beachy killed it last year with a 2.00 ERA an a 0.96 WHIP over 81 innings for the Braves. Unfortunately his season was cut short by an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John Surgery. His rehab has gone well to this point, he hopes to be able to start throwing off a mound by Spring Training, and there is a belief that he will be able to return to the rotation by June. Great news, but do you draft him? In a mixed league it would be wise to pass unless you have a DL spot (you obviously take a shot in NL-only leagues). It’s still no lock that he will return in June or that he will return to mowing down batters right off the hop.

Shaun Marcum signed a deal with the Mets for $4 million dollars with incentives that could add another $2 million to his one year contract. Marcum has dealt with elbow issues for years but he brings a nice skill-set to a park that certainly isn’t an offensive environment. Since 2008 here is an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB over an average of 168 innings per season (that’s leaving out 2009 when he missed the entire season). Look at those numbers. Much better than you thought, right? The innings are a bit low for sure, as I noted he’s long had issues with his health which continues to depress his value, but those are some pretty impressive ratios are they not? In fact, among all hurlers who have thrown at least 650 innings since the start of the 2008 season, do you know how many hurlers have posted an ERA under 3.60, allowed 10.85 base runners per nine innings or less while striking out 7.40 or more batters per nine innings with a 2.75 or better K/BB ratio? The answer is 11 — including Mr. Marcum. That’s why I felt very comfortable taking Marcum in the 23rd round in the recently completed 2013 FSTA Experts League.

Just cause. Jennifer Love Hewitt. My mom thinks we would make a wonderful couple.

Carl Pavano fell and ruptured his spleen while he was clearing snow from his driveway. Something is always happening with that guy. To his credit he actually tossed at least 199.1 innings each year from 2009-11, I know a shock, but he regressed to 11 starts and 63 innings last season for the Twins. He’s likely to miss 6-8 weeks with his current injury which might mean he will be forced to take a non-guaranteed deal this season (the Mets and Rockies are said to be the most interested).

David Robertson agreed to a 1-year, $3.1 million deal to continue to ply his trade out of the bullpen of the Yankees. Mariano Rivera is expected to be full recovered from his knee surgery and once again handle 9th inning duties, but with Rafael Soriano out of town (he signed with the Nationals), it seems likely that Robertson will be the primary setup man. Rather quietly Robertson posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, a 12.02 K/9 an a 4.26 K/BB ratio over 60.2 innings. A little secret. The last two years he has been on of the five best right handed setup men in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Biding My Time

I’m sitting here staring out the window. We’re all kind of in no-man’s land right now. Playoff football is ongoing, but fantasy football is basically over for most people (those playoff leagues just don’t do it for me). I’m one of the few people who actually plays fantasy hockey, and likewise there is a small but dedicated group that plays fantasy basketball, but we are in the minority. So where does that leave most fantasy sports addicts? It leaves you begging for the fantasy baseball season to begin. It’s about a month until pitchers and catchers report, and February is usually when the heavy lifting really starts with fantasy baseball, though to be honest, I’ve literally been writing about the 2011 fantasy baseball season since October. I know, I have a disease don’t I?

I’ll also be attending the FSTA Trade Association meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, so if you’re gonna be there let me know and we’ll grab a beer (or a fruity drink with an umbrella in it).

PLAYER RATINGS

Over at ESPN they have a whole section devoted to different player rating systems: Inside Edge, The Baseball Encyclopedia, ESPN Rating and Elias. Here are a few things that jumped out at me from those rankings.

Miguel Cabrera was the top player in 2010 according to two of the systems (ESPN and Elias). The man widely regarded as the best player in baseball – Albert Pujols – was second on the ESPN scale and came in at 6th in the Elias Rankings.

According to Inside Edge, the best player in baseball last year was Josh Johnson. I don’t know what the formula is for this measure, but when your top-5 includes Johnson, Cliff Lee and Paul Konerko, consider me dubious as to it’s value.

The top-3 performers according to the Baseball Encyclopedia were Troy Tulowitzki, Pujols and Robinson Cano. How could a guy who appeared in only 122 games last season be the best player in baseball?

You can check out the rankings for yourself at the link above, but here is their top-10 based on the average ranking of the four systems:

1- Albert Pujols
2- Miguel Cabrera
3- Roy Halladay
4- Joey Votto
5- Felix Hernandez
6- Jose Bautista (seriously)
7- Paul Konerko (gulp)
8- Ubaldo Jimenez
9- Adam Wainwright
10- Josh Hamilton

PLAYER PROFILE – LANCE BERKMAN

I wrote about the new Cardinals outfielder in Breaking Down: Lance Berkman. Here is a brief synopsis of what I said there.

“Currently sporting an ADP in the 300′s, it would seem that Berkman is in a good position to far surpass the value he is currently being assigned. It would be wise to avoid expecting a return to the salad days for Berkman, but if he slips far enough in drafts he is well worth taking a shot on as a mutli-position guy who will hit behind, arguably, the two best right-handed hitters in the National League.”

PAVANO STAYS WITH TWINS
After flirting with signing a big money, 1-year deal with the Yankees (how desperate are the Bronx Bombers when you realize they contemplated bringing back a guy who won nine games over four years with the club back in 2005-08?), Pavano decided he liked where he was signing a 2-year, $16.5 million deal to remain with the Twins. I predicted back on December 6th, 2010 that Pavano would hit it big as the second best starting pitcher on the market in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010. I missed on that one. I’m surprised that in this market, where middle relievers were getting 3-year deals at more than $4 million a season, that Pavano was only able to lock down a two year deal.

JUST BECAUSE…

One of the greatest set of lines in movie history thanks to Ron Burgundy.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 21, 2010

* Bengie Molina re-signs with Giants, leaves Mets in trouble.
* Tim Lincecum asks for record $13 million, Giants submit $8 million.
* Felix Hernandez signs deal with Mariners for 5-years, $78 million (average of $15.6 annually).
* Johnny Damon to retire?
* Ben Sheets hits 91-92, throws some curves in 55 pitch outing for scouts.
* Jim Edmonds to return to active duty?
* Paul Lo Duca signs with Rockies.
* Carl Pavano gets $7 million from Twins.
* Dave Bush to get at least $4 million from Brewers.
* Brad Lidge says he is healthy after two surgeries.
* White Sox: Andrew Jones ($500K) says he is in great shape.
* Octavio Dotel close to signing with Pirates, could close.
* Dexter Fowler hires Scott Boras as agent.
* Robinson Tejada signs with Royals for $950K.

By Ray Flowers

The Number 14

What does the number 14 mean to you? I suppose that it all depends on which sport you follow. I read one rather amazing comment on the number 14 that triggered me to go in search of number “14’s” for this piece, but before I get to the “big” one, here are a few other “14’s.”

* The uniform number of the Hit King, Pete Rose.

* The number of victories for Carl Pavano in 2009.

* The number of victories that Andy Pettitte has in three of his past four seasons.

* The point-per-game scoring pace of Tayshaun Prince last season (well it was 14.2, but if you round off that puppy you got your fourteen).

* The number of points that Rene Bourque has in 10 games with the Calgary Flames this year.

All of those are rather random “14’s” that can be found with a random sampling of sports, and none of the aforementioned “14’s” are what sent me on this kick. What is the “14” that did the trick?

From 1991-2005 the Braves won a division title, you guessed it, 14-consecutive seasons.

If you’re counting and you realize there are 15 years involved you are right. Don’t forget that major league baseball had a strike in 1994 when no divisional champions were officially crowned (the Braves were 68-46 but six games behind the Expos when the season was canceled).

In this day and age of money grubbing athletes, ah who am I kidding I’m just jealous, there is simply no way I can possibly conceive of any team in pro sports ever matching that run with guys always looking to “get mine” making it nearly impossible to set up a dynasty (also the advent of salary caps doesn’t help). Sure the Braves won only one championship in 1995, and they reached the World Series only five times, but honestly, 14-consecutive division titles? I have trouble waking up to my alarm clock 14-straight times. Here are some highlights from the run.

* The NL ERA was 4.21 in this stretch. The Braves’ ERA was 3.53.
* The NL WHIP was 1.38. The Braves’ WHIP was 1.28.
* Obviously the NL winning percentage was .500. The Braves mark was .606.

As you might recall, the Braves had a pretty strong threesome leading the charge to all those pennants.

John Smoltz: 149-99 (.601 Win%), 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.13 K/9, 3.19 K/BB. Was hugely clutch in playoffs, and there may have never been a more devastating slider from a right-handed starter.

Tom Glavine (1991-2002; he joined the Mets thereafter): 209-102 (.672 Win%), 3.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.77 K/9, 3.09 K/BB. The classiest lefty of the past 25 years. He wasn’t ever as exciting as the other two, but the man could certainly pitch with the best of them.

Greg Maddux (1993-2003): 194-88 (.688 Win%), 2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.51 K/9, 4.77 K/BB. Probably the best pitcher of his generation with his only competition being Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. No one was better at the art of pitching.

Combined, the trio also brought home some hardware.

Glavine: 1991 Cy Young Award
Maddux: 1992-95 Cy Young Awards
Smoltz: 1996 Cy Young Award

So as you can see, the Big-3 was certainly at the heart of pretty much all of the success that the Braves had. Oh, that and the man who has helmed the ship in manager Bobby Cox. Mr. Cox is fourth all-time with 2,413 victories, and though he likely won’t catch Tony LaRussa (2,552) for third overall, you can’t do anything but throw mad props at Cox who has been the Manager of the Year four times (1985, 1991, 2004-05) as the guy who captained the organization to every one of those 14 division championships.

One other “14” by the way… my brother Jeff used to wear the number while slugging homers on the diamond before be turned to soccer where he had a fair amount of success going on to become All-State in Junior College at the keeper position.

By Ray Flowers