Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Ray’s Random Musings

photo © 2011 Matthew Straubmuller | more info (via: Wylio)

Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).

Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.

Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical  woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.

The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.

Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of  32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.

* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.

* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.

Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Breaking Down the NL

I wrote my weekly National League breakdown piece today. Here are a few of the tidbits that really stuck out for me.

* Daniel Hudson leads the NL with 79.2 innings pitched since August 1st.

* Tommy Hanson has a 2.77 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He is 2-6 in that time.

* Carlos Zambrano is 6-0 with a 1.63 ERA over his last 12 appearances.

* Scott Rolen has 20 homers on the year but only three in his last 50 games.

* Melvin Mora is hitting .325 with 17 RBI in the month of September.

* Clay Hensley has a 2.25 ERA and a K per inning over 72 frames.

* Bud Norris has 152 Ks over 147.2 innings.

* Rod Barajas has five homers in 59 at-bats with the Dodgers.

* Randy Wolf has a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts.

* Carlos Beltran is hitting .329 with a .991 OPS in the month of September.

* Ryan Madson has made 42 appearances since the All-Star break with a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.

* The Pirates have only only player who is hitting above .250 while qualifying for the batting title (502 plate appearances). It’s Andrew McCutchen at .284.

* Jon Jay is hitting a mere .214 over his last 25 games.

* Will Venable is batting an insane .529 over his last nine starts.

*Aubrey Huff is leading the Giants in the Triple Crown categories (.291-26-85).

* Adam Dunn has at least 37 homers and 92 RBI in 7-straight years. There has only been one longer streak in the annals of the game; Rafael Palmeiro had a stretch of 9-straight years from 1995-2003.

To read the entire article click on the link to National League Breakdown.

Anyone out there notice that Mark Ellis is hitting .400 in September? His season has been a disappointment with only four homers and six steals after back-to-back 10/10 efforts the past two years, but his .281 batting would be his best mark since a career best effort of .316 in 2005.

What the heck is wrong with Jonathan Papelbon? It’s always hard to judge relievers on the fly given how small of a sample size we have to deal with, but his work of late has been awful – and that is with a capital “A.” He has made nine appearances in September during which time he has a 10.61 ERA, a 2.14 WHIP and a .372 BAA. At the same time he has a rather amazing total of 18 punchouts in just 9.1 innings. His late push in the K category has upped his season long K/9 mark to 10.11, his fourth straight year above ten, though his BB/9 mark is a career worst of 3.69 (more than a run above his 2.55 career mark). I tend to think he is just missing his spots right now, though this late season run of putrid production clearly won’t lock him into the 9th inning next season, not when Daniel Bard continues to deal. Bard has more than a K per inning this season (73 in 72.1 IP), owns a 1.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, and has been amazingly effective in his two season big league career (2.59 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, .199 BAA).

Justin Upton’s season is likely over because of that shoulder injury of his. He is visiting Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion today, but with a week left there is zero reason for him to return to game action even if he gets a positive report. That means he will finish the year with a .273 average, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 73 runs and 17 steals in 132 games. Every one of those numbers is smaller than his effort from 2009 (.300-26-86-84-20 in 138 games). In fact, his OPS dropped exactly .100 points down to .799 as he racked up 15 more punchouts (152). Still, he could be undervalued on draft day next season as he clearly has 30 homer, 20 steal potential.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 25, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano goes bonkers in dugout is suspended.

(2) Jair Jurrjens likely to return to the rotation next Wednesday.

(3) Carlos Beltran back by Monday?

(4) Carl Crawford’s shoulder still bothering him.

(5) Aramis Ramirez back from thumb injury.

(6) Jake Peavy coming on strong.

(7) A big announcement coming on Monday.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

The Weekend is Here

I’ve got a date on Saturday with a pretty lady friend. She is coming over for dinner, so if you have any suggestions on what I should make to impress her – I’ve already thought of SPAM and a vat of wine so you don’t have to suggest those – let me know in the Comments section below.

Wait a second, this is a baseball website, right? Sorry about that.

* Mike Aviles is hitting .341 in 70 at-bats. Yeah, good job Royals for sending him down to the minors so you could give at bats to Chris Getz (.188) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.280, .301 OBP).

* Ryan Dempster will defer money so that the Cubs can try to improve their team. (1) Dempster is set to make $12.5 million this season. He will defer $3 million of that at “little or no interest” according to Ken Rosenthal. (2) Good for him. I mean when you’re making millions of duckets a year, why not defer a few bucks if it helps the team? If you can’t live off $9.5 million a year you are seriously in need of an adjustment – even if you are 50 Cent. If you didn’t notice that the picture above was 50 Cent by the way, you lose your street cred completely.

* Jacoby Ellsbury is back on the DL with continued pain in his side and there seems to be some growing animosity between the two sides. Ellsbury feels that the team completely misdiagnosed his injury which has led to all the problems and whispers that he wasn’t tough enough to play through pain. All I know is that he is killing fantasy owners with a mere nine games played this season. And don’t think we “experts” don’t know how you feel. On one of my teams this year I had Ellsbury, Joe Nathan who didn’t throw one pitch, Lance Berkman who missed weeks with his knee injury, Josh Beckett who has been awful and is now out with a back condition and Brian Roberts who has all of 14 at-bats this season. Yeah, it doesn’t get much worse than that does it?

* Adam Jones had an interesting experience when he was detained for hours when the Orioles went to Canada to face the Blue Jays. Apparently they thought he was a hoodlum. Perhaps they thought he was NFL player Pacman Jones? Newsflash – the easy way to tell if it was Pacman would be to have a hot stewardess walk by and see if he started “making it rain.”

* From the oddity file. Jay Bruce has a .247 career batting average with a homer every 19.2 ABs. The past three weeks he is hitting .328 with one homer in 67 at-bats. Go figure.

* Will Ohman has three saves in a career that spans 7+ big league seasons. He is now the primary closer in Baltimore.

* Grady Sizemore is still seeing specialist about his knee injury. The more doctors he visits the more likely it is that he is hearing information that he doesn’t really like, or worse yet, there is a disagreement amongst doctors as to what the best course of action would be. We should hear over the weekend what the plan is, but I’m starting to give some serious thought to the position that Sizemore may have played his last game in 2010. Who would have thought back in March that Carlos Beltran and Sizemore, combined, wouldn’t suit up for 162 games in 2010? Sure looks like it might happen at this point.

* My Jed Wars team is about ready to get medieval on some fools. I’ve got Derek Holland who was recently recalled, Chris Tillman who is on the verge of his first appearance with the Orioles and Daniel Hudson who should replace a useless Freddy Garcia at some point in the near future in Chicago. If two of those three hit – in addition to Wade Davis who is also on my squad – I’m gonna have a killer AL-only staff. Can you imagine if this was a keeper league?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April16, 2010

(1) Who do you want on your fantasy staff – Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang?

(2) There are a ton of players who look like they could return this weekend: Carlos Gonzalez (hamstring), Mike Cameron (kidney stones), Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and Chris Coghlan (ribs).

(3) Fred Lewis traded to Blue Jays.

(4) Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris performing pretty well for Astros.

(5) Carlos Beltran (knee) still not running.

(6) Ted Lilly (shoulder) nearing a return.

(7) Brandon Webb throwing, though off flat ground.

(8) Lance Berkman sent to minors to play this weekend, could be activated next week.

By Ray Flowers