The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Votto A Runaway Winner?

Every time I pat the voters on the back, like I did for their AL Cy Young selection of Felix Hernandez, they turn around and do something a bit odd. In a piece entitled Who is the NL MVP?, I made a case for a narrow, and I mean razor thin, victory for Joey Votto over Albert Pujols. The Baseball Writers Association of America got it right in giving the award to Votto, so what am I scratching my head over? The results. Here they are:

Joey Votto: 31 1st place votes, one 2nd, for 443 points
Albert Pujols: one first, 21 2nd, eight 3rd, one 4th, one sixth, for 279 points
Carlos Gonzalez: 0-7-13-5-4-2-1, for 240 points.

Votto and Pujols were the only two players listed on every ballot. I have no idea in the world how CarGo wasn’t deemed at least the 10th best player by one voter who should have their credentials revoked, but I’m even more aghast at the fact that Votto was a near unanimous selection. Again, I’m not saying that Votto didn’t deserve the award, but 31 of 32 first place votes? After all, Pujols did lead the NL in RBI (118) and runs (115), it’s not like he as crushed in a myriad of other categories by Votto.

Pujols: .312/.414/.596, 42 HRs, 14 SBs, 39 doubles, 103 BB, 76 Ks
Votto: .324/.424/.600, 37 HRs, 16 SBs, 36 doubles, 91 BB, 125 Ks

There is simply no way that I can fathom this situation ending up with Votto being a near unanimous selection.

Let the bashing of me begin since I’m sure I will get a host of emails saying ‘but Votto’s Reds made the playoffs’ to which I will reply – so flipping what? This isn’t tennis folks. Baseball is a team game, and no matter how great a player is, no one person can win anything by his lonesome. This is about as tired an argument as I ever come across, and year after year you hear countless people espousing this nonsense. As near as I can figure it, this very line of reasoning must have been why Adrian Gonzalez received 197 points while Ryan Braun picked up only 19. After all, the Padres just missed the playoffs and the Brewers were well under .500 at 77-85. I would be much more willing to accept a line of argument along the lines of (a) Gonzalez plays in atrocious park for hitters and (b) he had all of that success with hardly any support in the lineup. Still, results are results, and I just don’t see how Gonzalez demolished Braun in the vote given their production.

Gonzalez: .298-31-101-87 with a .393 OBP, .511 SLG
R. Braun: .304-25-103-101-14 with a .366 OBP, .501 SLG

Speaking of Braun, I had him fourth on my ballot. It’s possible that I took too much of a “fantasy centered” approach in selection Braun for his 5×5 talents, but there is NO FLIPPING WAY that he should have finished behind Jayson Werth (52 points), Martin Prado (51 points) and Ryan Howard (50 points). I love Buster Posey (40 points), but he also shouldn’t have been ahead of Braun either. I don’t what is more shocking – Scott Rolen (26 points) finishing higher than Braun or Ryan Howard getting a second place vote for his worst full season ever? What cruel joke is being played here?

One final point. How in the world does Roy Halladay finish 6th in the NL MVP vote with 130 points when Adam Wainwright, who produced nearly identical totals this season (you can read about that situation in NL Cy Young and an Import) received just 12 points?

Someone has some explaining to do.

By Ray Flowers

First Round, 2011

It’s months away, and you’re likely either (a) intensely watching the playoffs, (b) knee deep in fantasy football or (C) all excited about fantasy hockey or basketball, but it’s never too early to look ahead. So, and I’m sure this list will change innumerable times before the actual 2011 drafting season is upon us, in honor of my Review: First Round, 2010 article in which I looked back at the top-15 choices in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft from the just completed season, here is my early projection of what the first round of a 2011 draft might look like.

15- Alex Rodriguez
He’s hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI in each of the past 13 seasons, and that is the longest streak in MLB history. He’s the Yankee I think will go in the first round over Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.

14- Evan Longoria
Entering his fourth season, his career bests in the 5×5 categories would result in a .294-33-113-100-15 line.

13- David Wright
Rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to go .283-29-103-87-19. Wright has hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals in five of the last six years.

12- Josh Hamilton
I wouldn’t take him this early, he’s still a big health risk in my eyes, but he did lead baseball with a .359 average, and he has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in two of the past three seasons.

11- Chase Utley
An injury limited him to 115 games, but there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to go .285-25-90-100-15 yet again in 2011.

10- Adam Wainwright
Over the past two years Wainwright has 39 victories (2nd in baseball), a 2.53 ERA (2nd), 425 Ks (7th), 3.48 K/BB (10th) and 463.1 IP (6th).

9- Roy Halladay
Lets look at Halladay’s numbers the past two years – 38 wins (3rd), 2.61 ERA (3rd), 427 Ks (6th), 6.57 K/BB (1st) and 489.2 IP (1st). Barely a difference between him and Wainwright.

8- Troy Tulowitzki
He appeared in only 60 games in the second half but still hit .323 with 18 homers, 61 RBI an a 1.020 OPS. Dude is a star.

7- Joey Votto
The likely NL MVP was second in the NL in batting average (.324), third in homers (37), third in RBI (113) and first in OPS (1.024).

6- Miguel Cabrera
His numbers are a near carbon copy of Votto’s (.328-38-126 with a 1.042 OPS) though Miggy gets the nod as the higher selection because he has done it for longer. Amazingly, Cabrera is only five months older.

5- Carlos Gonzalez
He was flipping amazing in ’10 (.336-34-117-111-26), but he must learn how to hit on the road (.289-8-41 with a .775 OPS).

4- Carl Crawford
If we remove the 2008 season, CC has gone at least .301-11-68-89-46 in each of the past five seasons.

3- Hanley Ramirez
He disappointed some after a monstrous 2009 (.342-24-106-101-27) as he produced a 5×5 line of “only” .300-21-76-92-32.

2- Ryan Braun
I’ve got the sneaking suspicion that we haven’t seen the best from him yet, and that is saying something when you consider that his 162 game average is .307-36-118-111-18.

1- Albert Pujols
Until someone dethrones the king, he remains my choice as the top selection. There isn’t a more consistently excellent option in the game – period.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the NL MVP?

I don’t care if a guys team went 90-72 or 75-87. To me, a teams’ record has no bearing on whether or not a player should, or shouldn’t, win the MVP award. The best player in the league should win the ward. In addition, no pitcher should ever win the award. Pitchers have the Cy Young Award, players have the MVP.

In what follows I will begin to run through of the awards and who I think should win them in the NL and AL. Will we agree all the way through? No doubt we won’t, but that doesn’t lesson the fun that the debate engenders.

These are the top-5 options, in my mind, for the NL award. Let me briefly run through the candidacy of each.

Ryan Braun: The modern day Hebrew Hammer, Braun had a bit of a down season with a career worst 25 homers (he’d never been under 32 before). His RBI mark of 103 was also a 3-year low, and though he stole 14 bags, that tied for his career worst mark. Oh, and his OPS of .866 was well below the .918 career mark. It’s pretty tough to think that a guy who failed to live up to his previous level of production would be rewarded by MVP voters in ’10, but that doesn’t change the fact that Braun was again great.

Carlos Gonzalez: The best combo of power and speed on the list, CarGo is the only man who went 20/20, and he actually went 25/25. He actually socked 34 homers and stole 26 bases, while leading the NL in batting average at .336. He was also one RBI off the NL lead in RBI (117) and he and Pujols were the only two players to have 110 RBI and 110 runs (CarGo had 111 runs). However, Gonzalez has one massive negative on his ledger – he was merely a major league average hitter on the road (.289-8-41-41-16 in 71 games). As great as his numbers were, and they were spectacular, it appeared to have been solely a function of hitting in Colorado half the time (.380-26-76-70-10).

Albert Pujols: For the first time Pujols led the league in RBI (118) while he repeated as the homer champ (42). Pujols also paced the senior circuit with 115 runs scored, hit .312 (12th), and had a 1.011 OPS that was fourth. The numbers were once again stupendous, but will Pujols lose some votes this season because of the fact that, despite his otherworldly studliness, his production this season (.312-42-118-115-14) was really no different than his career pace per campaign (.331-41-123-119-8)?

Troy Tulowitzki: You often win MVP’s because of your late season work, and no one was more impressive in that regard than Troy Tulowitzki who had a historic finish to a great season (.315-27-95-89-11). Tulo hit .323 with 18 homers and 61 RBI over his last 60 games, but even those numbers pale in comparison to what he offered over his last 30 games during which time he hit .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. He ended the year leading all big league shortstops in homers, RBI and batting average, and his total of 89 runs was fourth. He only appeared in 122 games though, and he also will lose some votes to CarGo who was a great foil.

Joey Votto: He led the group of players in OPS (1.024 – the best in the NL), and he also led the group with a .424 OBP (another league best) and a .600 SLG. Votto also blasted 37 homers leading to 113 RBI and 106 runs, while hitting a robust .324 with 16 thefts. Votto’s team also made the playoffs, and some will undoubtedly view that fact as the deciding factor when placing their vote.

Some more numbers.

Braun: .866 OPS, 112 RC, 31 RCAA
CarGo: .974 OPS, 132 RC, 44 RCAA
Pujols: 1.011 OPS, 142 RC, 66 RCAA
T. Tulo: .949 OPS, 98 RC, 25 RCAA
J. Votto: 1.024 OPS, 144 RC, 74 RCAA

Braun and Tulowitzki clearly fall behind the other three, and they can be removed from the discussion.

Gonzalez has the worst OPS, lowest RC and RCAA of the final three, and again, he just didn’t do anything on the road.

That leaves Votto and Pujols. Given that Votto slightly edged Pujols in AVG/OBP/SLG and RCAA, I’m gonna give he award to Votto by the slightest of margins.

5- Troy Tulowitzki
4- Ryan Braun
3- Carlos Gonzalez
2- Albert Pujols
1- Joey Votto

By Ray Flowers

Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 9, 2010

(1) Drew Stubbs is a fantasy ace.

(2) Jose Valverde right elbow tenderness.

(3) Bobby Jenks has ulner neruitis.

(4) In my By the Numbers piece today, I gave a bunch of interesting numbers. Here is a review of a few including history possibly being set by Mat Latos, Dan Uggla and Carlos Pena.

(5) Carlos Gonzalez on fire – but poor on the road this season.

By Ray Flowers

Random Thoughts

I felt like doing some random commentary today so what follows, in no particular order, follows that line of thought. – or better yet no line of thought.

I wrote about Andres Torres today in an IMPACT REPORT on Wednesday. I got a very well thought out email from a reader today which pointed out that sometimes guys get labeled as one thing (organizational depth) and never have a chance to bust out from that mold. I certainly agree, but I’m still sticking by what I said in the piece that I’m just not sold that he will be able to sustain his growth this season moving forward. One other little known fact – Torres uses the biggest bat on the Giants (35 inches, 33 ounces). Not bad for a guy who barely checks in at 190 lbs.

Yesterday I wrote about how Albert Pujols has a good chance to win the Triple Crown this season. However, as I was thinking about things today, I was struck by something rather amazing. As great as Pujols has been, and you can make the argument that no player has ever had a better 10-year run to start their career in the history of the game, it’s utterly amazing to think the following:

Albert Pujols has only led the league in average once (.359 in 2003).
Albert Pujols has only lead the league in homers once (47 last year).
Albert Pujols has NEVER led the league in RBI.

Isn’t that amazing? That means that Pujols has only led in the Triple Crown categories twice in his career. Hell, Dante Bichette pulled off that trick in 1995 when he led the NL in homers (40) and RBI (128).

Have you seen Madison Bumgarner in person? That is one big boy. Listed at 6’4″, 215 lbs, he is every bit of that. He might still get bigger too. The kid is only 21 years old (he reached that age just over three weeks ago). Don’t know how he gave up three first inning homers to the Reds on Wednesday though. Despite the rough outing, he still has an extremely bright future, and with his loose arm action I’m looking at him as a potentially dominating ace on the hill now that his fastball is back in the 93-94 mph range.

The last 30 days Garrett Jones is hitting .165, the worst mark in baseball, just ahead of the .170 total posted by Felipe Lopez. If you add up those two marks you end up at .335 which is a mere .121 points worse than the .456 mark of Joe Mauer. The previously mentioned Mr. Pujols leads the NL with a .398 mark.

Joey Votto is here to stay as a top fantasy option, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The man has a smooth stroke and isn’t afraid to go the other way. He should be a .300 hitter with 30 homers for years to come.

Brennan Boesch has scored four runs the past 30 days despite coming to the plate 104 times. That’s putrid.

I know Jose Bautista has gone deep 40 times, and dating back to last season he has 50 homers in his last 154 games, but are you buying this power surge? After all, the guy hit just 43 homers the past three years over 1,238 at-bats. So again, are you buying this? I put the over/under on his homer total at 31 for 2010.

Homer Bailey is still just 24 years old. Who knew?

Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .291 with 15 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs and 15 steals despite spending some time on the DL this season. While that level of offensive production may not sound overwhelming, it should be pointed out that he is one of only four men in the game who are hitting .290 with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. The others are Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright and Evan Longoria.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 20, 2010

(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.

(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.

(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.

(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?

(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.

(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.

(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April16, 2010

(1) Who do you want on your fantasy staff – Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang?

(2) There are a ton of players who look like they could return this weekend: Carlos Gonzalez (hamstring), Mike Cameron (kidney stones), Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) and Chris Coghlan (ribs).

(3) Fred Lewis traded to Blue Jays.

(4) Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris performing pretty well for Astros.

(5) Carlos Beltran (knee) still not running.

(6) Ted Lilly (shoulder) nearing a return.

(7) Brandon Webb throwing, though off flat ground.

(8) Lance Berkman sent to minors to play this weekend, could be activated next week.

By Ray Flowers