Fantasy Beat – End One Fantasy Season, Begin Another!

For all of you fantasy basketball players, Justin and Trevor talk about players that you can still find on your waiver wire who can help you win your fantasy basketball league. The guys also recap the first week of the 2013 MLB season and talked about which players came up huge. The guys make some serious predictions.

NBA: Carl Laundry, Derrick Favors, Kyle O’Quinn

MLB: Chris Davis, Tyler Flowers, Michael Morse, Josh Hamilton, Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Marmol, Kyuji Fujikawa, Yu Darvish

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Fantasy Baseball: Bullpen Woes

It’s already started, and no one is pleased about it. I’m not talking about the fact that Kim Kardashian is wearing tight skirts and sexy outfits despite being pregnant and really showing (am I the only one that thinks that is a hideous look?). I’m talking about 9th inning woes. Last year two-thirds of closers changed from Opening Day on, and the turnover is usually in the 40-50 percent range on a yearly basis. It’s why I always preach going for the skills/talent over the role. Eventually the skills win out, and more often than not you can roster skills for a lot less on draft day than roles. With that, here are some situations to monitor.

NOTE: Don’t forget that the Reds have already moved on from Jonathan Broxton to Aroldis Chapman, so the merry go round actually started before the season even began.

BREWERS

John Axford is third in baseball the last two years with 81 saves. Still, he blew nine chances last year an in two outings this season he’s allowed four runs while recording five outs. Panic stricken owners are running for cover all over the place. You would have to think that his past success will give Axford some rope, but his fastball was down about four mph in his last outing, so perhaps his arm isn’t right. It would appear that Jim Henderson would be next in line a season after he produced a 13.21 K/9 mark and allowed one homer in 30.2 innings thanks to his 95 mph heater. Axford owners would be wise to add Henderson, and Jim is worthy of throwing a few FAAB bucks at this week.

CARDINALS

We still don’t know how long Jason Motte will be sidelined, it’s All Quiet on the Western Front with his progress, but it’s looking like it could be a significant situation. As such, Mitchell Boggs became the hottest pickup in many fantasy leagues in Week 1. Hopefully you didn’t go all in. Boggs blew his first save chance this season, and as I’ve been telling those that asked, he’s not an elite arm – he’s much more Jim Johnson than Jonathan Papelbon. Boggs has a strong 52 percent ground ball rate in his career, but he’s also a below average strikeout arm (6.68 per nine) and his K/BB ratio, even the last two years, isn’t great (2.52). On the other hand, Trevor Rosenthal is an elite arm who regularly blows 97 mph cheese past batters. In his young career he has a 12.00 K/9 mark, a 4.00 K/BB ratio and an even better ground ball rate than Boggs at 55 percent. I’d be targeting Rosenthal as a cheap pickup right now, one with huge upside and potentially a fantasy goldmine.

CUBS

Carlos Marmol has had a rough start. What a shock. In his outing he allowed a run, walked a batter, and got one out. Marmol has still blown only one of his last 20 save chances, and the Cubs won’t get much on the trade front if they demote him to middle relief and then try to deal him. Kyuji Fujikawa came in to save Marmol’s bacon and pick up the save, but he recorded all of one out. I know he’s had a ton of success as a professional, and that folks really like his makeup, but it’s far to early to bail on Marmol and go all in on Fujikawa. Now if Kyuji is on waivers right now… he’s a must add. What, you don’t think I’m devoid of a brain, do you?

TIGERS

The Tigers signed Jose Valverde to a minor league contract even though they continually said they had no interest in bringing back into the fold the majors saves leader the past three seasons. So much for that when Phil Coke is out there blowing leads in the 9th inning (I warned you not to get overly excited about Coke getting a long look in the 9th inning this season). Valverde is likely weeks away from being called to the big leagues, he’ll eventually report to Triple-A once the team is comfortable that his arm is right,m as he tries to prove that he is worthy of a roster spot. Valverde’s a 35 year old arm who struck out fewer than 6.50 batters per nine innings last season which is more than three an a half batters below his career 9.91 per nine mark (a total he last reached in 2008). I’d still say that Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque and Octavio Dotel have better arms, I might even add in there Brayan Villarreal to be honest, but sometimes experience wins out over talent.

Oh, and finally there is this… Francisco Cordero can be ruled out for the entirety of the 2013 season as he was forced to undergo surgery on his non-throwing shoulder (he wasn’t able to convince anyone to sign him this offseason). The owner of seven 30 save seasons, tied for the 5th most in the history of the game, Cordero also owns 329 career saves, the 12th most in the history of the game.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com

Justin and Trevor are joined this week by Jeff Erickson from RotoWire.com. They discuss Bryan LaHair, Albert Pujols, Carlos Marmol, Tim Lincecum, punting categories, third base worries and who to possibly add (Ian Stewart, Jed Lowrie, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Chris Johnson)  and much more.

Listen to the Audio.

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

The Strikeout: Relievers

We all love the strikeout. There is nothing more exciting than seeing a hurler unleash a 98 mph heater that a batter has no chance to catch up to as he swings feebly before heading back to the bench with his head down. Yesterday in The Strikeout: Starters, I touched on my overall thoughts about how to understand and evaluate the strikeout, while focusing on which starting pitchers might be undervalued entering the 2011 season. Today, in the same vein, I’ll break down which relievers appear lined up for solid fantasy efforts in the coming campaign even if they currently don’t appear headed for 9th inning work (remember, it often makes sense to targets skills over role).

Relief Pitchers

No discussion about relievers could begin anywhere else than the Cubs’ closer, Carlos Marmol. In a season unmatched in the annals of the game, Marmol had 138 strikeouts in in 77.2 innings. That K-rate equates to a K/9 mark of 15.99, and that is the best mark in baseball history of any pitcher who threw at least 50 innings, one full batter better Eric Gagne’s 14.98 mark in 2003. In fact, so great was Marmol’s K-rate that his total of 138 Ks was better than the marks posted by the following starting pitchers:

Derek Lowe 136 in 193.2 IP
Joe Blanton 134 in 175.2 IP
Jaime Garcia 132 in 163.1 IP
Fausto Carmona 124 in 2101. IP
Bronson Arroyo 121 in 215.2 IP

Since we’re focusing on relievers in this piece, not starters with moderate K-totals, here’s a list of the top pitchers in baseball last season in K/9 amongst those that tossed a minimum of 50-innings.

15.99 Carlos Marmol
13.50 Billy Wagner
12.92 Joel Hanrahan
12.85 Rafael Betancourt
12.18 Stephen Strasburg
12.02 Matt Thornton
11.79 John Axford
11.50 Takashi Saito
11.45 Carlos Villanueva
11.21 Brian Wilson
11.19 Joaquin Benoit
11.08 Tyler Clippard
11.06 Heath Bell
10.95 Hong-Chih Kuo
10.95 Brandon Morrow
10.87 Ryan Madson
10.85 Sean Marshall
10.83 J.J. Putz
10.55 Octavio Dotel
10.54 Jonathan Broxton
10.52 Francisco Rodriguez
10.42 Bobby Jenks
10.42 David Robertson
10.25 Frank Francisco
10.23 Luke Gregerson

Only two starters are on this list – Stephen Strasburg and Brandon Morrow (you can read more about Morrow in the starters piece linked to at the top of this piece).

Evaluating Relievers

A couple of weeks back in How to Evaluate Relievers I gave some simple “rules” to use when looking at bullpen arms. In that piece I listed the 17 relief arms that tossed at least 60-innings last season with a K/9 of at 7.50 and a BB/9 mark under 3.00. Some of the names were likely fairly obvious, but others certainly weren’t. Here is that list again.

Casey Janssen
Matt Thornton
Sean Burnett
Rafael Soriano
Joaquin Benoit
Luke Gregerson
Joakim Soria
Neftali Feliz
Darren Oliver
Kyle Farnsworth
Edward Mujica
Matt Belise
Billy Wagner
Sergio Romo
Rafael Betancourt
Hong-Chih Kuo
Joba Chamberlain

What follows are my thoughts on some of the less than obvious names on that list. Remember, we are focused on the strikeout in this piece, but that doesn’t mean we want to neglect the walk as all the K’s in the world don’t mean a heck of a lot if a pitcher is walking every third batter.

Rafael Betancourt: In 2010 this Rockies’ reliever had a 12.85 K/9, and a 11.13 K/BB – marks that would make any pitcher who has ever tossed the ball blush. Rafael has 497.1 IP in his career leaving him 2.2 innings from becoming the ONLY man in history with a 9.50 K/9 mark and a 4.35 K/BB in 500 career innings (his career marks are 9.53 and 4.36).

Edward Mujica: I already broke down his historically significant effort of last season when he became one of just the fourth man in the history of the game to do something that will blow your mind. If you want to know what he accomplished take a look at Radiant Relievers.

Darren Oliver: He is old, boring and never drafted except in league specific scenarios. Still he has a two year average of 8.69 in the K/9 department and a 3.51 K/BB ratio. There are worse options to round out a bullpen in league specific set ups.

Kyle Farnsworth: The potential closer for the Rays over guys like Jake McGee and Joel Peralta, Farnsworth owns a career 9.04 K/9, but walks are usually a concern (his career K/BB ratio is 2.33). Still, he has done a better job the past two years throwing strikes leading to a 3.12 K/BB ratio in that time.

Matt Belise: Given that he owns a career 6.64 K/9 mark his rate of 8.90 last year was a bit surprising. Already 30 years old, did it just take him a while to put it all together? After all, his K/BB ratio the past two seasons has been special (4.40 and 5.69).

Joba Chamberlain: In many ways Joba out-pitched Daniel Bard in 2010 (you can read about that comparison in Hot Stove: The Arms Race). Of course, there are now reports that Joba gained weight this offseason, and not in a good way, and that his roster spot could be in jeopardy. With Rafael Soriano in the mix, the best Joba could hope for to start the year is the 7th inning gig, and that pretty much tanks his fantasy outlook.

And finally…

Craig Kimbrel: Kimbrel is kind of cheating since he didn’t reach the threshold of 60-innings for the above list. Still, when you strike out 17.42 batters per nine innings you get a mention, even if you only pitched 20.2 innings. Moreover, that mark of 17.42 per nine is the highest mark in history of baseball for at least 20 IP (the next highest mark is Marmol’s 15.99). Be careful though as Kimbrel also walked a sickening total of 6.97 per nine. To compare, his minor league numbers include a K/9 of 14.42 K/9 and a BB/9 of 5.66. Still, he is slated to open the year as the Braves’ closer.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May27, 2010

(1) No new injury with Jacoby Ellsbury. A DL trip is still possible though. Victor Martinez also out with his toe issue.

(2) Carlos Zambrano has appendicitis? A report says he was taken to the hospital.

(3) Carlos Marmol on amazing K pace – a historic one.

(4) John Ely is the real deal for the Dodgers.

(5) Matt Lindstrom blows 1st save chance in 23 tries.

(6) B.J. Upton struggling terribly in May.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.4, 2010

(1) Orlando Hudson reportedly agreed to a 1-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. (2) Carlos Marmol agrees to 1-year deal to avoid arbitration with Cubs. (3) Nomar Garciaparra aims to keep on playing. (4) Russell Branyan still a free agent, wanted outlandish money at one point. (5) Erik Bedard looking more and more like he will return to the Mariners.

You can also read more of my thoughts on Carlos Marmol in my Breaking Down piece on him.

Oh, and that bikini picture below? There is no reason for it to be there other than I figured you might like to look at their fine feminine form more than my ugly mug.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Pitchers

Today it’s all about pitchers. I just started typing some random bits of information that caught my fancy, and when I looked up I realized that everything I penned had to do with guys who take the hill. So without further ado, here are five men, who throw the ball for a living, that I thought you might enjoy reading about today.

Joe Blanton threw seven shutout innings on Tuesday to lower his ERA down to 3.82. In 14 of his last 15 appearances he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. The man may not know how to wear stirrups, or how to shave his ridiculous looking facial hair, but he knows what to do with the ball in his hand.

Angel Guzman has been shut down for the remainder of the 2009 season do to a strained right triceps muscle. You may not have realized it, but he was actually the most consistent arm in the Cubs’ bullpen this season. Kevin Gregg leads the team with 23 saves and Carlos Marmol leads the group with 27 holds and 86 Ks in 70 innings, but guess who has the best WHIP on the team? That’s right, it’s Guzman with his 1.05 WHIP in 61 innings. Guzman also owns a 2.95 ERA on the year which also is the best mark of any hurler on the squad who has thrown more than 30 innings. See what I mean?

Josh Johnson picked up 10 strikeouts on Tuesday in his fifth loss of the season. Johnson threw five innings to leave him on the precipice of a milestone with 199.1 innings pitched on the season. Still, the Marlins continue to baby him. Johnson has been allowed to throw more than five innings just one time in four starts despite allowing two or fewer runs three times in this stretch. In fact, Johnson has now gone seven starts without tossing seven innings. Managing a pitchers innings count is important, especially when a guy is coming off injury, but if you are just going to pull him out of the game every time he hits 90 pitches (he tossed 92 on Tuesday), what’s to keep the other team from simply taking pitches and trying to drive up a guys pitch count so that they can get into the bullpen?

Pat Misch has lost each of his last three appearances for the Mets, hardly a shock given that he owns a 1-11 record in his big league career. In fact, it took him 55 appearances at the big league level to come up with his first victory, and in his three appearances since then he has gone 0-3 with a 12.40 ERA with two Ks and two BBs over 12.1 innings for the Mets. The Mets have decided to return Misch to the pen after those three outings. They certainly have some sharp guys making decisions with the Mets don’t they?

Manny Parra (neck) will make his scheduled start on Friday as he attempts to improve on his 10-10 record. No word yet on if he will resemble a major league pitcher or not in that outing given his 6.42 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over his 25 starts this season. Those numbers got me to thinking. How easy is it to win 10 or more games with an ERA over 6.40? So I looked it up and the answer is – not very. It’s only happened twice in the last decade though Parra could make himself the third man on the list joining Ryan Drese and Colby Lewis. If we add on another decade, and take things back to 1990, one more name is added in LaTroy Hawkins. Going back to 1980, no one else makes the cut. Ditto if we go back to 1970, 1960, 1950, 1940. In fact, since the era of modern baseball began way back in 1900 there have only been three seasons in baseball history with an ERA over 6.40 and at least 10 victories in a single season. If Parra wants to become a part of history all he needs to do is continue along at his current rate and he will make it four. You don’t think he would purposefully throw a few batting practice type fastballs to see if he could keep that ERA high do you? Me neither, but it may be the only shot he ever has at history so perhaps I’ll shoot him an email to let him know he is on the edge of something really big.

By Ray Flowers