Spring Training Notes

Major league baseball is rocking and rolling with Spring Training underway, so now is a good time to take a little trip around the league to hit on a few of the stories making the rounds.

Mike Carp has been dealt from the Mariners to the Red Sox for a Player to be Named Later or cashola. He’ll likely serve as depth behind Mike Napoli at first base in case big Mike’s hip issue flares up. As for Carp, he’s gone deep 18 times with 71 RBIs in 545 big league at-bats spread over four seasons. He’s got decent pop though he doesn’t hit too many fly balls (33 percent) so that will cap his potential upside there even if he’s given a lot of work. A solid depth add for the Red Sox and a strong late round addition in AL-only leagues.

A follower pointed out today that Matt Holliday had a career worst strikeout total of 132 last year, and he wondered if that was a significant issue that needed to be addressed? My answer? Not really. It’s a concern that he posted a career worst total, but it’s also the only time he’s gone over 105 since 2007. In addition, his K-rate last season was 19.2 percent, a career worst, but only 1.2 percent above his 2011 mark (he appeared in 124 games in ’11 to keep his overall K total a bit muted). As players age they sometimes see an uptick in strikeouts, but Holiday’s overall skill set is very stable and I see little reason to think that he can’t repeat his totals from last season (.295-27-102-95).

Phil Hughes has a bulging disk in his back and he will be shut down for two weeks to let the area heal. There is still time for him to be available in the first week of the season, but as his Player Profile points out, you shouldn’t really care about his health as much as you might think.

Just how overlooked has Juan Marichal been when the discussion roles around to great pitchers of the past fifty years?

Shelby Miller, one day, will likely be a top of the rotation ace. Everyone believes that. Will that happen in ’13? Probably not. In fact, he may not even make the rotation out of camp. That won’t stop some from over drafting him this year though. Perhaps this note will. Miller is dealing with some soreness and tightness in his shoulder. The team believes it’s not a serious situation, but a little hiccup like this could lead to him falling out of contention for the 5th rotation spot, though it’s likely his spot to lose if he performs well.

Ever heard the urban legend of alligator’s in the sewer? Turns out it’s real…

Brett Wallace is going to play first base for the Astros, this according to Bo Porter the manager of the club. Wallace has 709 at-bats as a big leaguer, but he’s never attained the levels of success that were predicted for him when he was drafted. Wallace has hit .250 with a poor .699 OPS while going deep 16 times. He’s been a replacement level bat, simple as that. If he can’t make it happen this season he’ll likely settle in to a depth player for big league clubs for the rest of his career. With Wallace at first, that means Carlos Pena will likely be the DH most days. This seems like an odd choice to me since I don’t know of many baseball people who think that Wallace profiles as a better defensive player than Pena. By the way, Carlos will be looking to return to the 28 homer, 80 RBI level that he flashed each year from 2007-11 before dipping to 19 and 61 last year. Be careful with Pena as we all know he’s gonna kill your batting average (the last time he hit .230 was 2008). Chris Carter is likely to play left field on a regular bases with that power bat of his. He’s gone deep 19 times in just 332 at-bats, but he’s also struck out a whopping 124 times.

Did you know that Jered Weaver led AL hurlers last season with a .214 batting average against? The NL leader was Gio Gonzalez at .206. The #2 man in baseball was Clayton Kershaw at .210.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Monday Madness

I love the Player Profiles, digging deep into a player and trying to ferret out whether or not expectations are too high or too low for the guy. Alas, I don’t want to become monotonous in the way that I cover the world of baseball, so I’m throwing a change up. Today I’m gonna touch on a handful of stories that have cropped up over the last 24-48 hours and give my take on players as diverse as Oswalt, Pujols, Trout, Marcum and Webb.

Shaun Marcum is still without a team, though Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that the Padres, Pirates and Rangers are all showing interest in the righty hurler of late (the Indians, Royals and Twins have also been mentioned as possible landing spots). There are issues concerning his health, he was limited to just 124 innings last season and has a history of issues with the wing, but whenever he is on the hill he’s been a damn fine big league hurler (last year’s 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were both four year highs). If Marcum’s healthy he’s an ideal #4 starter with SP3 upside.

Roy Oswalt hasn’t decided if he wants to pitch this season, but it sounds like even if he does return he may pull a Roger Clemens and only pitch for half the year. Oswalt was a huge letdown last season in his 59 innings with the Rangers posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Given that his career numbers are 3.28 and 1.20 you can see just how off the rails things were last year. It may be hard to tell given how bad he was onteh surface, but Oswalt still did some awfully nice things last year. He struck out a better per inning. He posted a 1.68 BB/9 mark which was a six year low. The result was a 5.36 K/BB ratio which was his best mark since his rookie season of 2001. He had a GB/FB ratio of 1.42, only four hundredths below his career mark an actually a four year best. He was done in by a career worst .378 BABIP (just .079 points above his career mark) and by a HR/F ratio of 18.6 percent (in his previous 10 seasons only twice did that ratio even reach double-digits). If he wants to, if he’s motivated and healthy (his back is an issue), he can still help out plenty of teams on the hill.

Have you ever had a Mexican torta? I’m getting me one for lunch today from the local taqueria.

Justin Smoak hasn’t lived up to expectations – about as obvious a statement as saying that Mike Trout is a really good baseball player (more on Trout below). The Mariners have brought in vets this offseason, and if guys like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are up to speed, it’s possible that Smoak would be without a spot in the daily lineup (what do you expect when you’ve hit .223 with a .683 OPS over 355 career games). The Red Sox, still uncertain about how the Mike Napoli situation is going to play out, have apparently reached out to the Mariners to gauge whether or not the club might be willing to deal the first baseman. Smoak still could end up being a productive run producer, think Carlos Pena at the dish without the walks, though that would obviously be a significant issue for Smoak since he’s shown an inability to get on base (career .306 OBP).

For the hell of it – puppies.

Mike Trout continues to be the early leader for the #1 selection in fantasy leagues according to ADP. I knew it would happen, didn’t we all, but I’m still a bit surprised by it. How anyone could take him over Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera is beyond me.

The D’backs still sound like they want to deal Justin Upton. I just don’t get it. For more on this situation check out my piece entitled Pujols at End of Road? That article also gives a rundown of what you should be thinking about Mr. Pujols heading into 2013.

Brandon Webb is drawing a bit of interest on the market with the latest team reportedly kicking the tires being the Rockies. Webb is just the type of arm that the Rockies covet as he’s a guy who disdains the fly ball. For his career Webb owns a 64.2 percent ground ball rate, and each of the six seasons he threw at least 180 innings that mark was at least 61.8 percent. Unfortunately he last threw a big league pitch in 2009, and even then it was just four innings worth of throws. Webb has had surgery and been doing his best to get his arm back in shape – his shoulder is the issue – so I wish him luck. The odds are about as strongly against him as possible in his bid to return to big league baseball though.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Who should you be playing Friday and Saturday? In addition to that info, I’ll hit on a few of the relevant stories in the game as well.

The Dodgers, to the frustration of everyone, will use Ronald Belisario and Brandon League in the 9th inning with Kenley Jansen (heart) on the sidelines. Way to clarify that situation for us Mr. Mattingly. I’d favor Belisario, 60/40, for 9th inning work. Also, Chad Billingsley will have platlet-rich plasma injections in his elbow in the hopes that it will help him return before the end of the season. It may, or may not, get him back out on the field this season.

The Giants plan on getting Joaquin Arias more time on the field. Good idea Giants. Arias is hitting .429 with 15 RBIs in just 56 at-bats in the month of August (that average leads baseball by the way). He’s not a great hitter, not even close, but he’s rolling right now making him a wonderful NL-only option at the moment.

Carlos Pena has been told his playing time will be cut. Shocker. When you’re hitting .188 with just 16 homers you should have your playing time reduced. Looks like Jeff Keppinger will get more time at first base against left-handed pitchers. Seems like a good thing since, oh, Keppinger thinks he’s Ted Williams against lefties this year as he’s hitting .411 with a 1.005 OPS through 90 at-bats.

Alex Rodriguez (hand) could return from the DL as early as Monday. Hand/wrist injuries traditionally sap the power of batters a wee bit, so it would be wise not to expect him to have some massive month of September, but at least he might have a month to help out fantasy squads.

Josh Vitters has failed, miserably, to do anything for the Cubs. He’s been awful at the plate going 5-for-54. That’s less than a .100 batting average folks (.093). The team doesn’t want the youngster to think he’s the worst player of all-time, so they are going to manage his workload moving forward. That’s code for they are going to bench him an awful lot. Hard to believe, but Luis Valbuena appears likely to get an awful lot of work at the hot corner (that’s not code – you want to add Valbuena in NL-only leagues if he is available, even if he can’t really hit either: .227/.319/.384 in 920 career at-bats. Maybe that’s why no one has bothered to add him to their team at Fleaflicker). Speaking of youngsters, Brett Jackson’s numbers are still poor – .216 average and 37 Ks in 74 at-bats (to state it differently, he’s striking out in literally half his at-bats) – but unlikely Vitters there seems to be some short-term hope. Jackson has been a highly effective offensive performer over his last seven games with three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored. At least one of the Cubs’ youngsters is showing something.

HITTERS FOR FRIDAY

Stephen Drew vs. Aaron Cook: .342 in 38 at-bats
Jonny Gomes vs. Aaron Cook: .500-3-6 in 14 at-bats
Torii Hunter vs. Kevin Millwood: .405-2-13 in 42 at-bats
Dan Uggla vs. Roy Halladay: .355-3-7 in 31 at-bats
Chris Young vs. Aaron Harang: .316-3-5 in 19 at-bats

HITTERS FOR SATURDAY

Aaron Hill vs. Josh BeckettL .412-1-8 in 34 at-bats
Ryan Howard vs. Tim Hudson: .344-7-17 in 61 at-bats
Adam Lind vs. Jeff Niemann: .448-3-9 in 29 at-bats
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: .500-1-3 in 26 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Max Scherzer: .385-1-5 in 26 at-bats

PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: 11-6, 2.69 ERA in his career.
Hiroki Kuroda: 8-straight starts 3 or fewer ERs (11 ERs total).
Adam Wainwright vs. Nats: 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA last seven starts this year.

PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Homer Bailey vs. Astros: 4-0, 1.33 ERA vs. ‘Stros. Club hitting .225 since All-Star Break.
Kyle Lohse vs. Nats: 5-0, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over last nine starts
Max Scherzer vs. W.Sox: 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 Ks in 75.2 IP vs. W.Sox.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your daily fantasy baseball lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Phillies vs. Kyle Lohse: Look at the numbers some of the Phillies’ batters have put up against Lohse, they are pretty staggering – Juan Pierre (.500), Ty Wigginton (.533), Brian Schneider (.308), Hunter Pence (.317) and Placido Polanco (.357). All of that doesn’t include Ryan Howard (.500) and Jim Thome (.400) who aren’t active. Moreover, the entire Phillies roster has hit .299 against Lohse.

Carlos Pena vs. Jon Lester: In two games as a leadoff man Pena is hitting .375 with a homer, three runs an a .545 OBP. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling Friday when he takes on Jon Lester, a pitcher that he has hit hard to the tune of five homers, 13 RBI an a 1.086 OPS in 37 at-bats.

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ervin Santana: Hitting just .283 on the season, Ichiro is no longer the dominating force he once was. Still, the guy is no stranger to the base hit and given that he faces Santana, who he is hitting .350 against in 80 at-bats (big time sample size), you have to feel pretty good about his odds. Speaking of something having to do with odds, how about this oddity – Ichiro has tried to steal off Santana nine times and he’s never been successful.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Anthony Bass vs. Mets: The Metropolitans are hitting .259 with a mere 26 homers and  187 runs scored (the homer total is second lowest in the NL and they’ve scored three runs more than the Giants which should tell you how potent their offense isn’t). Bass has a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season which includes a total of four runs allowed in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo vs. D’backs: Gallardo is on a roll having gone 3-straight outings of six innings while allowing two or fewer runs. He’s also scaled back the long ball having allowed just one in eight starts.  Friday he faces a D’backs club that he has owned in his career going 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32 Ks in 30 innings.

Tim Hudson vs Nationals: Since returning to the field all that Hudson has done is pitch like, Tim Hudson. In five starts he is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, an in four of his outings he’s allowed two or fewer runs. He faces a Washington club that used to be the Expos (remember that?) Friday. In 23 starts against the franchise he has been phenomenal going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Melky Cabrera vs. Mark Buehrle: I admit it. I was apparently wrong about Melky Cabrera. Watching him on a daily basis, all the guy does is hit. Currently batting .362 on his way to leading baseball in hits (67) there is virtually no way he won’t go off Saturday. Cabrera is 17-for-27 against Buehrle for a .630 average. Flipping amazing.

Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon: Flipping amazing #2. A-Rod is hitting .468 against Colon over 47 at-bats. He’s not rapping out singles either as his 22 hits have produced six doubles, a triple an eight homers leading to 17 RBI. The guy has a 1.149, not OPS but SLG mark, against Colon (his OPS is 1.630).

Luke Scott vs. Josh Beckett: Scott is having a strong power season with eight homers and 31 RBI, though his average is languishing down at .243. Perhaps seeing Beckett on the hill will help him to continue his productive efforts as he has 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) including three homers and seven RBI.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Minor vs. Nationals: This one is as much a hunch as anything else. Look, I know his ERA is 6.96 and his WHIP 1.45, but I’m telling you, the parts are far greater than the sum here. In 53 innings this season he has 48 Ks. In 15.2 innings against the Nats in his career he has 16 Ks, has issued just five walks, and has a 1.28 WHIP. Risky as all hell, but sooner or later he is going to have a gem.

Bud Norris vs. Dodgers: Over his last four starts Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while he’s racked up 29 Ks in 26 innings as perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball (people might be a bit slow to wake up to that fact if we can judge by the numbers over at Fleaflicker). The Saturday matchup affords him a Dodgers club that he has faced five times leading to some dominating numbers as well (2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 Ks in 30.1 innings with a .183 BAA). Lock and load.

Jerome Williams vs. Mariners: It’s almost as simple as – if a guy is facing the Mariners you can have confidence starting him. Williams has had success in two starts against the Mariners with a 3.00 ERA and 0,73 WHIP over 15 innings, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep the good times rolling with another solid effort.

CONTESTS

I just gave you some rather substantial advice on how you could have success this weekend, right? Sign up for the Beat Ray Promotion – it will be on the $50 freeroll this week. Go to the BaseballGuys/DailyJoust landing page, sign up for the $50 Free Roll, and have at it.

Around the Horn: May23, 2012

(1)  Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.

(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?

(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?

(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.

(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?

(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.

(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.

(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Players Switching Leagues

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray talk about the new players to the AL. Whether they are new to the AL coming from the NL or whether they are rookies, every year AL-Only Keepers leagues are stuck with the tough decisions in ranking the new additions.

Listen to the Audio.

How are these players being valued? Check out what Fleaflicker thinks.

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers