FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 13 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day, both good and bad. Oh, and you know I have to comment on the Carlos Quentin charging the mound on Zack Greinke…

NOTE: In the video I say David Murphy, should be DANIEL Murphy as the great play tonight.

NOTE II: Zack Greinke will undergo surgery on his clavicle. Word is now that he will miss eight weeks.

By Ray Flowers

Review: NL LABR

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…

Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.

Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).

Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.

Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).

Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.

So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.

As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.

Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.

Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.

Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…

Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.

Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).

How was the club on the hill?

Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks

Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves

Reserve picks – Two played out.

Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs

So how did it all turn out?

CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.

By Ray Flowers

Friday’s Follies

Miguel Cabrera is hitting .333 with 41 homers and 130 RBIs. He leads the AL in batting average and RBIs, and is one homer behind Josh Hamilton for the AL HR lead. That’s right folks, he is on the cusp of the Triple Crown. Will he win the award over everyone’s darling, Mike Trout? If late season performance sways voters than he surely will. Since the start of August, here are each man’s numbers.

Cabrera: .360-16-45-35 with a 1.145 OPS
Trout: .274-9-22-38 with a .811 OPS (Trout does have 15 SBs)

Thanks to Elias for this one. Chris Carpenter will be the first pitcher in the history of baseball to make his season debut after his teams 150th game played when that pitcher made 30 or more starts in the previous season. For more on Carpenter see my September 20th Mailbag piece.

Yu Darvish has had an up and down season, but he also has 214 Ks which are the 9th most for any rookie hurler since 1893. Of course he’s not really a rookie since he pitched for five seasons is Japan. Only once in those five seasons did he fail to record 200 Ks (he had 167 in 182 innings in 2009). He had 276 Ks in 232 innings last year for the Nippon Ham Fighters (I’m not making that name up).

I mentioned this at the BaseballGuys Twitter account last night, but for those of you that missed it – Eric Hosmer is on the cusp of something pretty impressive given just how dreadful his overall production has been. Yes he’s hitting .240 with 59 RBIs an a .686 OPS, but did you realize that he is just one homer from a 15/15 season? Those numbers stand out as there have been only 10 seasons of 15/15 by a first baseman in the 21st century with only three first sackers pulling off the trick more than once (Derrek Lee three times, Albert Pujols and Ryan Klesko two times).

I don’t normally look forward to Friday’s like most people do. Why? Because sports never stop. Think of it. When you are heading out to your in-laws for the holiday celebration in the car with the two kids in the backseat yelling, what are you doing? You’re listening to the radio (hence I work all the holidays for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio). Also, what do you do on the weekends? You watch sports. Therefore, it’s pretty obvious what I’m doing on the weekend – I’m working, hard at this point covering the NFL (my Sunday’s start at 7 AM PST when I tweet start/sit for @SiriusXMFantasy on Twitter. The Tweeting ends at 10 A PST, I then watch the games all day, and then do the radio thing at 7-10 PM PST which means my Sunday’s are 15 hours of work. Of course there are worst things to be doing than watching football, trust me I get that, but it’s still a long day). So what I’m basically trying to say is that I do appreciate Friday’s now. Given that I’m in all day Sunday, starting before the sun comes, I had better enjoy my Friday nights cause it’s pretty tough to be focused at 7 AM Sunday if I’m all about getting bombed on Saturday night until 4 AM.

Oh Carlos Quentin, you are killing me in my NL-only league. I know you are always hurt, I knew that when I drafted you, but this is pretty awful my friend. In each of the past three seasons you have hit at least 21 homers while appearing in 130, 99, 131 and 118 games. So I was thinking, on the safe side, 120 games worth of action. With less than two weeks left in the regular season Quentin has hit 16 homers in just 81 games played. Ugh. Too bad too as he’s averaging a homer every 17.6 at-bats after posting a 2009-11 mark of 17.25.

Chris Young is another player killing me in my NL-only league. Young is doing his normal torpedo job in the batting average category with a .227 mark (career .239) and his OPS is .740 (career .755) as expected. However, it’s the counting categories that have been the disappointment. After appearing in at least 134 games each of the previous five seasons, and four times he’s hit at least 148 games played, he’s appeared in all of 96 games this season. After hitting 47 homers the past two years he has 14 this season. After stealing 50 bags the past two years he has eight thefts this year. Let me state it another way. The past two years Young has averaged 24 homers and 25 steals, yeah that’s damn good. This year he has 14 homers and eight steals. That’s awful. He’s also scored 36 runs after posting at least 85 runs in four of the previous five seasons. Unmitigated disaster meet Chris Young.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July5, 2012

Each week I’ll be  answer some of the questions I’ve received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Pablo Sandoval and Desmond Jennings for Joey Votto? Have Brett Lawrie at 3B so Panda sits on my bench or in utility spot.
– @Youksbeard

All of this hullabaloo over Sandoval being named the starter over David Wright for the All-Star Game has obscured the fact that Sandoval is performing very well. Yes he’s only been on the field for 47 games, but if we push things out to 150, at his current pace, we’d be looking at a guy hitting .313 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs (those numbers are nearly identical to his career marks per 162 games: .308-23-87). Those aren’t stupendous numbers, but they are pretty darn good, aren’t they? If you’re “stuck” with that as your utility option many will wish they could be you.

Jennings was a victim of his own hype. As I stated to everyone that would listen all offseason, Jennings wasn’t going to be a 25 homer hitter this season, and those who thought he was a 20/40 option were always going to be disappointed. He’s stolen 15 bags in 59 games including three in his last four games, so apparently his knee is finally healthy. However he’s hitting .231 as his walk rate has gone down from his rookie season leading to a below league average 0.40 BB/K mark. He’s also be smart to hit a few more balls on the ground to take advantage of his speed. The talent is still here for a huge second half, but there’s not a lot going on right now to suggest he’s going to realize that potential in the second half this season.

Votto — do I need to waste time/space saying he is elite? As long as his body holds up there is little reason to think that he won’t end the year the way he was drafted – as a top-10 overall performer.

You have Lawrie at third so you don’t have to have Pablo around, but as I mentioned, Pablo is still a great utility option. Jennings is a borderline elite talent, even if his production has been far from that level this year. Most people will tell you that getting the best player in the deal often means you win. In this case here is my answer – you’re never going to be wrong adding Votto to your club, but if you’re team is lacking depth holding on to Pablo and Desmond might still end up being the best move.

Anibal Sanchez dropable in 12 team roto? Dude has been killin me for over month.
– @lmfriedrich

On June 9th, less than a month ago, Sanchez had a 3.19 ERA. Now that mark stands exactly one run higher at 4.19. Obviously he’s had a brutal stretch (honestly it’s even worse as his ERA was 2.56 on June 4th). So what should be done with a guy who has a 7.34 ERA and 1.69 ERA over his last six starts? Do you drop him in a 12 team league? The answer comes down to who is available to add. If you’re in a league where people have itchy trigger fingers maybe there are guys like a returning to health Derek Holland or an improving Ubaldo Jimenez on the wire, an in that case you could consider moving on from Sanchez. Personally, I’m stubborn. If my pitching wasn’t a mess, if I could afford to give him some time, I’d bench Anibal and give him a few more starts to see if he can right the ship. What’s done is done, there’s no going back now. Still, we’re talking about a guy who some rather impressive numbers overall this season including a 8.20 K/9 mark, a 2.97 K/BB ratio and a 1.46 GB/FB rate. Chances are pretty good that if he holds on to all three of those numbers for the duration of the year that he’s going to have a good deal of success in the second half.

I don’t need a 2B but should I drop Carlos Quentin for Alexi Amarista? Quentin is tickin me off.
– @BigDaddyLowery

Amarista has been killing it the past two weeks hitting .424 with four homers and 15 RBIs (that includes all four homers, and 13 of those RBIs, in his last seven games). Point blank, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game. Still, let’s not go overboard here. Amarista is 5’8” and weighs about a buck-fifty. He’s no power hitter. Just look at his minor league totals by year.

2008: 2 HR, 21 RBI
2009: 4 HR, 49 RBI
2010: 5 HR, 68 RBI
2011: 4 HR, 55 RBI

He does have a .312 minor league average, and he owns some speed, but this is a guy at this point that profiles as an NL-only option, and not a mixed league force. If you don’t need a second baseman, he’s not someone you should be picking up to start in your utility spot (over at Fleaflicker people seem to agree).

Quentin was insanely hot when he returned from his knee issue hitting five homers with nine RBIs in his first six games. Everyone thought he was Babe Ruth. Over his last 14 games he has one homer and three RBIs. Now everyone thinks he is Willie Bloomquist. He is neither player of course, and this brings up the shortsightedness that so many people have in the fantasy game (Bloomquist by the way is hitting .333 over his last 78 at-bats). Quentin is hitting .289 this season which is .035 points better than his career mark. Quentin has a .430 OBP which is .080 points better than his career rate. Quentin has a .577 SLG which is .083 points better than his career rate. Taken in total, Quentin is working on a 29 game pace that would equate to 35 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.007 OPS over the course of a full season. Are you really going to complain about that? Of course you wouldn’t.

Baseball is a long season. If you don’t have the patience to wait out players slumps you’ll likely miss the good that they have to offer. So next time you think about dropping a guy who has had a rough three weeks for someone who’s name you didn’t even know two weeks ago because that unknown player has been hot take a deep breath, logically analyze the situation, and make sure you aren’t making a snap decision that will cost you later.

Yasmani Grandal or  J.P. Arencebia who I have held into him begrudgingly last two months in a 16 team points league?
– @lilnas2000

Grandal has burst on the scene swatting four homers in just 20 at-bats for the Padres. A borderline elite prospect at the catcher’s position, he’s already flashed the plus power he possesses. However, he’s yet to translate that pop into consistent power production in the minors, and Petco isn’t likely to do him any favors. Also, let’s not forget that the Padres still have Nick Hundley and his 3-year deal trying to find his swing in the minors, so it isn’t likely that he’s going to spend a tremendous amount of time down on the farm if he starts hitting.

As for JPA, what were you expecting? Just like the case with Quentin above, Arencebia has his strengths and his faults. Just like Quentin he has long stretches of ineffectiveness. Just like Quentin he’s a power bat and the results often come in bunches. Sure J.P. hit a mere .189 with eight RBIs in June, but let’s take that holistic approach again. JPA has 239 at-bats right now. If we give him 443, the same total as last season, what do we get?

2011: .219-23-78-47
2012: .222-20-70-54 (pace)

That’s right. He’s on pace to pretty much replicate his production from last season, so is being disappointed in his production really fair?

I’d stick with Arencebia, though if you are worried about the batting average, taking a shot on Grandal is fine as well since the duo profiles as similarly productive fantasy options the rest of the way.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: June6, 2012

(1) Alex Avila headed to DL with hamstring injury.

(2) Colby Rasmus blows up – can he be trusted?

(3) Andy Pettitte dominating batters. Can it continue?

(4) Carlos Quentin is Babe Ruth?

(5) Huston Street returns to action.

(6) Alfonso Soriano flashing power bat. Did you notice?

(7) What to do with the perpetually disappointing Tim Lincecum?

By Ray Flowers

LABR: An Experts Take

The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, just completed the 19th draft in the history of the event (12 experts drafted in the American League, and 13 in the National League, this past weekend in Phoenix). I was graciously invited to the NL-only draft, thank you to Steve Gardner for that (you can read Steve’s thoughts on the draft in this piece), and though my team has been roundly lambasted since the drafts completion I still had a great time at the event and look forward to the marathon that is the baseball season. Before I offer some thoughts on the draft, here’s who I was able to roster on my squad (for a look at the entire auction here is a Google Doc with all the selections).

C: Wilin Rosario ($8), David Ross (2)
1B: Garret Jones (10)
2B: Daniel Murphy (17)
3B: Placido Polanco (10)
SS: Rafael Furcal (12)
MI: Chris Nelson (4)
CI: Derrek Lee (3)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (33), Dexter Fowler (19), Chris Young (20), Alfonso Soriano (10), Carlos Quentin (13)
UT: Nate McLouth (4)

PITCHERS: Madison Bumgarner (19), Tommy Hanson (14), Rafael Betancourt (16), Wandy Rodriguez (10), Gio Gonzalez (13), Sergio Romo (6), Luke Gregerson (3), Takashi Saito (2), Jeff Samardzija (1), Erik Surkamp (1)

BENCH: Ross Detwiler, Rick Ankiel, Blake DeWitt, Tom Gorzelanny, Logan Forsythe, J.D. Drew

Some general notes.

In this league trading is allowed. That might be something I will need to explore to bolster some areas of weakness.

There is an odd quirk in LABR. All players that were drafted at the auction table need to be in your active roster. The only want to remove a player from your lineup is if he is placed on the DL or demoted to the minors, or of course you can always just cut a player. However, if Dexter Fowler is hitting .199 in April I can’t just put him on the bench, he has to remain active (Chris Liss of Rotowire.com won the AL-Only league last year despite having to hold on to Adam Dunn all year).

As for my team…

Yes I left money on the table, and yes that was a mistake. I’d pinpoint two areas where I should have spent more. (1) I should have added Aaron Hill up the middle. I backed out at $14 and Wolf/Colton rostered him for $15. If I had gotten Hill the last quarter of my team would have looked different, but I certainly could have used him given my lack of infield strength. (2) I should have gone the extra dollar on either Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco who went for $9. Could have also gone the extra dollar on Chris Volstad who I let go (maybe a few bucks to Roy Oswalt would have been nice too). Everyone who follows my work knows I’m a fan of both. Instead, I ended up with Erik Surkamp as my final starter.

Everyone is bashing me for my weak infield, and I can certainly see why there is concern. A big key for me is obviously what happens with Derrek Lee. If he signs with someone a 20 homer, 70 RBI season would be huge for my club. However, he might retire, he might end up in the AL or he might end up playing as a part timer in the NL. People have also questioned my catchers, and with good reason. But to be fair, catchers were going for some pretty high dollar amounts. Would you have paid $10 for Jonathan Lucroy, $8 for Ryan Hanigan or $5 for Jason Castro? Maybe, maybe not, right? Another key is the health of Rafael Furcal and Placido Polanco. If they play 135 games each then this situation looks a lot better. If they don’t, look out below.

Is the infield weak? Yes it is, but I think some have overlooked the strength of my outfield. For my money, it’s the best group in the league. There might be valid concerns with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Quentin, but if the both hit 25 homers with 80 RBIs, as my 4th and 5th outfielders in an NL-only league, that’s pretty damn good. Chris Young might hit .240, but he’s also been a 20/20 guy three of the last five years while averaging 91 runs scored a season the past two years. At this point everyone knows I’m on the Dexter Fowler train, I might be the conductor, but I really have high hopes for him putting it all together for a full season. And then there is Andrew McCutchen who is a wonderful foundational building block.

On the hill, I love my top-4 arms: MadBum, Hanson, Wandy and Gonzalez. I took a risk on Hanson, but I thought at $14 it was worth it even with the health concerns. As for Gio, I’m shocked I got him actually. I threw him out there for $13 fully expecting him to go for at least $18. Ten seconds later he was part of my team. Funny thing, after the :10 seconds of silence when no one pushed his bid up I then heard three teams at the table say that he was a great buy.

I overpaid for Rafael Betancourt at $16. This was another mistake I made – i.e. I waited to long to jump into the closer mix. I incorrectly thought that people would grow weary of paying $15 for every closer that was thrown out for bid. They didn’t. At the point I added Betancourt he was the only legitimate closer left on the board other than a guy like Frank Francisco, so I was forced to overpay to add Rafael who has elite skills but has never shown the ability to work the 9th inning before the last month of 2012. I should have jumped into the closer mix earlier – I might have saved a few bucks.

In the end, the truth is every team in an NL-only league with 13 clubs is going to have holes. Hopefully things break right for me an I’m in contention late. If not, I’ll review all the correct an incorrect decisions I made over the course of the season and come back even more prepared in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Chase Headley has always had a fan at BaseballGuys.com. If you purchased a copy of the 2011 BBGuys’ Draft Guide, and if you didn’t shame on you, you will recall my words of encouragement about Headley (this years Draft Guide will likely drop at the end of January or early February for those of you itching to get it in your hands). Headley didn’t live up to expectations in terms of his fantasy output in 2011, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t show some growth. Read on for my explanation of what I’m talking about an if there is enough here to make him someone to target in 2012 (I broke down his new teammate, Carlos Quentin, in this Player Profile).

Headley will have corner infield value in mixed leagues because he isn’t afraid to steal a bag. Each of the past three years he has stolen at least 10 bags, and his three year average is a cool 13 thefts a season, the same total he posted last year. Amongst third base eligible players only Eduardo Nunez (22), Ryan Roberts (18) and Mike Aviles (14) had more last season. Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying – I’m not saying Headley is some base stealing marvel, but he does steal a fair amount of bags relative to others at the third base position.

Headley hit a career best .289 last season, better than the marks posted by Placido Polanco (.277), Chipper Jones (.275), Martin Prado (.260), Kevin Youkilis (.258) and Roberts (.249). That certainly helped to boost Headley’s value in the fantasy game. While OBP isn’t counted in the majority of leagues, Headley was also a strong performer there. Headley’s .374 OBP was the highest mark of any third baseman in the National League (minimum 400 plate appearances). He can thank the fact that he pushed his walk rate to a career best level (11.8 percent), two percentage points above his career rate. He still struck out 21 percent of the time, but the result was a 0.57 BB/K mark, the best of his career. As you can see, Headley produced a strong average and got on base at a great clip in 2011 compared to other third sackers – and there is value in that.

There’s a pink elephant in the room though, and the number on that tutu is four, as in the homer total of Headley in 2011. As a third baseman, Headley would have to be performing at an Ichiro-like level to overcome a mere four homers, and clearly Headley didn’t so his fantasy value was sunk last season. We can partly blame the fact that injury limited him to just 113 games, but that’s like using a band aid for a broken leg. The fact is that Headley has never learned how to lift the ball. He raps out extra base hits, he’s averaged 29 doubles the last three years, an as we’ve see he produces hits, but he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Chase’s fly ball rate has regressed the past two years, down from 38.3 percent to 36.0 and 32.3 percent, which is well below the big league average of about 37 percent. So he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a big time home run hitter. Second, his HR/F ratio is just 7.0 percent for his career, and the last two years he’s failed to reach 6.5 percent. You can certainly blame him for that, but his home ball yard in San Diego also isn’t doing him any favors. Petco was 12th out of 16 NL stadiums last year according to the HR Park Idicies, and the past three years Petco is 15th in the NL. If Headley were to move out of San Diego a run to 15 homers seems reasonable, though that’s still nothing to get overly excited about when we’re talking about a third baseman hitting 15 homers.

The best thing that could happen to Chase would be for him to be dealt to another club. He seemingly profiles very well as a #2 hitter, but he might be best suited as a 6th or 7th place hitter on a strong team. If he was allowed to spend his home games in an offensive leaning park a 15 homer, 15 steal season could be possible. Toss in a .280-ish batting average and then we’d be talking. However, if he isn’t dealt out of San Diego, Headley would likely be best served as a solid third base option in NL-only leagues. Headley might still produce enough to be a solid corner infield option in deep mixed leagues, after all his career bests would lead to a .289-12-65-77-17 fantasy line, but he’s more of a speculative play in that format.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin is a bit of an enigma. He possesses a nice power bat (4-straight 20 homer seasons), strikes out less than other top level sluggers (just a 15.9 percent K-rate), but never seems to be able to put it together because of one injury after another. Tired of the ups and downs, and looking to go with youth, the White Sox dealt Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez (neither arm is an elite level prospect). Can the California born Quentin, who was a 3-sport performer at University of San Diego High, be the middle of the order bat that the Padres need?

Quentin’s main bugaboo is ill health. He’s been a “full-time” player for four years, but he’s never appeared in more than 131 games (don’t forget that includes the ability to function as a DH). As a result, he’s averaged a mere 426 at-bats over those four seasons. Obviously the fact that Quentin has been unable to stay on the field consistently is a major concern if you are planning on Quentin being a centerpiece of your fantasy squad in 2012.

The second major issue with Quentin is the fact that, despite having ample power, that he’s going from one of the best homer hitting havens in the game to one of the worst. “He’s got huge power, so he has hit a good number of homers to right, right-center,” GM Josh Byrnes said. “It’s a tall order for any player in Petco, but from center to the left-field foul pole, they’re gone in any park.” That might be so, but let’s not gloss over the facts here Josh. According to Park Indices, Petco comes in at 8th in the NL for right-handed hitters during the 2011 season, an over the past three years that ranking is also 8th. While that might be better than you thought given Petco’s reputation, it was still two percent below the league average the last three years while U.S. Cellular Field, Quentin’s old home, was 38 percent better than the American League average. That’s a massive difference and is should give you pause with Quentin.

The third issue with Quentin is that, honestly, he’s just not that good of a hitter. Quentin has a career batting average of .252. Moreover, he’s hit better than .254 in just one of his six big league seasons. That number doesn’t figure to improve in the NL playing half his games at Petco.

The fourth issue for Quentin is that he has no base stealing speed. Only once has he stolen as many as four bags, and he’s swiped just 16 bags in his career (616 games).

So what do we have with Quentin? Let’s review.

He has shown a propensity to be injured.
He’ll play half his games in a pitcher’s park.
He’s a below average big league hitter in terms of batting average.
He has no stolen base speed.

I’m not suggesting that Quentin has no value. Quentin has hit at least 20 homers in 4-straight seasons with a career best of 36 in 2008, and per 500 at-bats in his career he’s averaged 29 homers and 91 RBI. Remember though Quentin has never, not once, had 500 at-bats in a season. He’s also produced those numbers in the offensive environments of the the desert (the Diamondbacks) and the Windy City (the White Sox). Given his limitations, his home ball yard, and his record of ending up on the trainers table, you would be wise to view Quentin as nothing more than a mid round outfield gamble in mixed leagues. There’s always a chance that some home cooking will inspire him (for example I know I type much better when I’ve had a nice home cooked meal of SPAM and cheese), but in my mind he simply cannot be trusted to be an elite power bat given the particulars of his situation in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April22, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano moved to bullpen for Cubs.

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury has four fractured ribs. What does that mean for is recovery?

(3) Dallas Braden continues great early season work against the Yankees.

(4) Prince Fielder goes deep for first time in 54^th at-bats.

(5) Brewers destroy Pirates 20-0.

(6) Scott Baker has rough outing, or did he?

(7) Carlos Quentin demoted to 6^th in order. Andruw Jones takes his spot in third hole.

(8) Brian Fuentes still closer in Anaheim.

(9) Mike Lowell gaining on David Ortiz?

(10) Ryan Zimmerman dealing with another hammy issue.