Hot Stove: Signings Galore

Its been another wild and wooly day in the world of baseball as a whole handful of fantasy relevant players have decided where they will play in 2011.

Edwin Encarnacion: Well look at that. After casting EE adrift because they didn’t want to overpay him (he was picked up off waivers by the Athletics who subsequently decided not to offer him a contract as he was non-tendered), the Blue Jays brought Encarnacion back into the fold. Paid $4.75 million last season, Encarnacion signed a one year deal for $2.5 million with a club option of $3.5 million for 2012. You might not be aware, but Edwin hit 21 homers last season which is more than Scott Rolen (20), Kevin Youkilis (19), Casey Blake (17) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (16) despite the fact that he had just 332 at-bats. A poor third basemen, it appears that the current plan is for Edwin to see some time at third, first and DH this season, potentially splitting time with Adam Lind at 1B/DH. For more of the Encarnacion love fest make sure you read Jason Collette’s Free Agent Forecast: E5 where he expounds about his unhealthy man-crush on the free swinging infielder (it’s kind of creepy how much Jason digs Edwin… I’m just saying Jason).

Bobby Jenks: Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks have agreed to a 2-year deal for $12 million. This signing is a bit odd since the Red Sox already have young flame thrower Daniel Bard, not to mention closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s pure speculation at this point, but why would the BoSox bother to bring in Jenks to pitch the 7th inning? The point is, they wouldn’t. This leads to the obvious – perhaps the Red Sox are going to rid themselves of Papelbon. Problem is, Jonathan is coming off his worst season since becoming the closer, and he will likely make upwards of $11 million or more through arbitration. Who wants to take on a slumping closer who will make more than $11 million, especially when he will become a free agent after the 2011 season (for more on Papelbon see Around the Horn: Offseason Moves)? Good question. As for Jenks, he is coming off a career worst 4.44 ERA and a five year low of 27 saves, but he actually pitched very, very well. In addition to a five year best with a K/9 rate of 10.42, Jenks also managed the best GB/FB ratio of his career at a superb 2.80. If he combines those two numbers again in 2011, his ERA should fall by at least a run if not back into the 2′s.

Russell Martin: I wrote about Martin’s decision to sign a one year deal with the Yankees in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker. Now comes word that during his physical it was determined that he will need minor knee surgery. The Yankees still signed him to the contract with this knowledge, so you have to think the issue is relatively minor, but it can’t make you feel good about Martin’s 2011 outlook given that he is coming off of two mediocre seasons (at best) and a fractured hip. He’s dropping down my draft list.

Magglio Ordonez: Jon Heyman is reporting that Mags will return to the Tigers on a 1-year deal for a rather large $10 million. The Tigers likely had to overpay a bit since they only wanted to do a one year deal with a guy coming back from ankle surgery. Ordonez has been working out and is said to already be close to 100 percent healthy. For more on Ordonez and his prospects for the upcoming season check out Around the Horn: Offseason Moves.

Josh Willingham: Buster Olney is reporting that Willingham will be dealt to the Athletics in exchange for two players (one who has major league experience). I have to hand it to the A’s, they are doing some nice things. Not only have they added two arms to what was potentially the best staff in the AL last year with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, they have also augmented the offense by adding Hidkei Matsui, David DeJesus and now Willingham (you can read more about the addition of Harden in Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News and more about Matsui in the link above in the Martin writeup). Willingham missed the end of 2010 because of knee surgery, and he will be a free agent after the coming campaign, but the guy can hit. Over the past five years Josh has averaged 20 homers and 66 RBI a season despite an average of just 434 at-bats a year. It is a concern that Oakland’s home park doesn’t reward power hitters, and that Willingham hasn’t had even 430 at-bats in any of the last three seasons, but he does add some needed thump to a lineup whose biggest home run hitter in 2010 was Kevin Kouzmanoff with 16.

By Ray Flowers

Californian’s on the Move

Uribe to Dodgers

Jose Uribe, coming off a career best season of 24 homers and 85 RBI, signed a 3-year deal for $21 million to leave the World Champion San Francisco Giants (it’s still an amazing feeling to write that), to move south to join the Dodgers. He now becomes a hated player in this writers’ household as he joined the Dodgers placing his name alongside the likes of Benedict Arnold.

Now I’m not saying that the Giants should have matched the offer, they certainly should not have. It’s too much money, and too many years for Uribe. Why the Dodgers would give him that contract for Uribe to play second base is also a mystery. They already have 37 year old Casey Blake at third, and an aging an injury prone Rafael Furcal at short which means that Uribe will play second base. He’ll give them ample power for that spot (he’ll still qualify at third and shortstop in fantasy baseball 2011 as well), but let’s put things in perspective.

Uribe is a career .256 hitter who batted .248 last season.

Uribe never walks. His career-high was in 2010 when he walked all of 45 times. As a result, his OBP is .300 for his career. Not his batting average, his OBP. That’s dreadful when you consider that the league average since 2001. the start of his career, is .337.

Though he has hit 20-homers four times, he has averaged only 17 homers per 500 at-bats in his career. Speaking of 500 at-bats, he has only eclipsed that mark twice (2007 and 2010), and his career SLG of .431 is just five points better than the league average during his career.

Uribe also has no speed with only seven steals the last five seasons.

Only once in three years has he hit more than 16 homers.
Only once in three years has he scored more than 50 runs.
Only once in three years has he had more than 55 RBI.
Only once in three years has he hit over .250.

To wrap it up, the Dodger gave a 33 year old versatile infielder who has averaged, per 500 at-bats in his career a line of.256-17-69-63 with a .731 OPS, $7 million a year for three years. I can’t envision a scenario where they don’t end up regretting that.

Torrealba to Rangers

Yorvit Torrealba left the Padres to join the Rangers as he signed a 2-year deal for $6.25 million. Yorvit will replace Bengie Molina as the Rangers #1 man behind the dish (it’s not known if Molina will retire or look for another deal).

Torrealba had a Catcher’s ERA of 3.14 in 2010, and that was the best mark in Padres history for a catcher who appeared in 81 or more games. It was also the lowest since Paul Lo Duca posted the same mark in 2003 for the Dodgers. The Rangers had the 4th best ERA in the AL in 2010 with a 3.93 mark, so Yorvit will have a solid staff to work with.

As for his offense, it’s pretty fair for a catcher. It’s always hard to tell how good a guy is when his playing time is sporadic, and that is certainly the case with Torrealba who has had only one season in his career of more than 325 at-bats. Torrealba has 538 at-bats the past two years, basically a full season, an in that time he has hit .279 with nine homers, 68 RBI, 58 runs and a .725 OPS. He also moves from arguably the worst hitting park in baseball in San Diego for one of the best in Texas, and that should certainly help his production. All told, he is a sure fire starting in AL-only leagues, and he has a legit shot to be a solid second catcher in mixed leagues as well, especially if he is able to increase his at-bat total a bit. This deal, unlike the one given to Uribe, seems like a really good move for the Rangers, especially when a guy like John Buck got 3-years and $18 million from the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

The Week that Was

With the Academy Awards due to be handed out this weekend, I thought I would take a break from all the face time I give myself with my video segments in Around the Horn. I wouldn’t want to make the “professionals” look bad. So today all you’ll get is my razor sharp wit through the written word.

* How great is it to have baseball games, and therefore box scores, to watch/read each day? I’m fortunate as hell to have my job, who wouldn’t want to immerse themselves in sports all day, and that point is squarely driven home when I can turn on the MLB Network at 10 AM and get the chance to watch a spring training ballgame. Priceless.

* Did you catch my recent review of the Dodgers’ third baseman Casey Blake? In case you missed it, here is a morsel to get you to click on over. “Did you know that over the past three years that Blake has hit at least .270-18-78-7… only he and Alex Rodriguez can make that claim at third base.”

* Peter Gammons came out and said that Delmon Young looked great and that he thinks he has finally figured it out. I give my thoughts on the young outfielder in Breaking Down: Delmon Young. “He is also one of just 21 guys who have had at least 400 plate appearances in each of the past three years who has hit at least .284 in each of those seasons.”

* Are you as confused as I am with all the uncapped NFL stuff? Sorry I slipped there and mentioned the pigskin. I guess it’s just a left over reflex from the recently completed season.

* Can Bobby Jenks hold down the White Sox closers spot in 2010? He’s in better physical shape and is ready to attack hitters again. Read about him in Breaking Down: Bobby Jenks? “Jenks has posted at least 29 saves in each of the past four seasons. There are only seven men in the group that have accomplished that: Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Francisco Cordero and of course Jenks.”

* Since I slipped and mentioned football above, I thought I might as well reference my NHL Trade Diary piece as well. I tell you, I literally sat at my computer for eight straight hours the day of the trade deadline writing that piece. That isn’t hyperbole either. I literally was at the ready for about seven hours and 55 minutes as I only took about five minutes out of that time to get a few drinks (juice, not booze), go to the bathroom a couple of times, and to stock up on granola bars that I ate throughout the day. What I do for my craft. You should have seen more poor back at the end of the day. Cue the violins.

* It’s not the be all end all of pitching analysis, but did you catch my creation to measure pitchers effectiveness called Average Bases Allowed? I think it should replace WHIP in fantasy leagues, even if few agree with me.

* Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes as the Yankees fifth starter? I’m already tired of the debate. Face it everyone – ALMOST EVERY HURLER WOULD BE MORE DOMINATING OUT OF THE BULLPEN. I mean seriously, how many times have you heard “…Joba loses about five mph when he starts, he just loses his willingness to attack hitters.” Um, sorry morons, he’s throwing five mph slower because he has to last for 100 pitches, not 20 like he did when he worked out of the pen. Memo to the Yankees – leave Joba in the rotation, remove the stupid Joba Rules, or just move the guy to the bullpen forever. It’s not that complicated is it?

I’m out.

By Ray Flowers