Maddux or Halladay?

There’s been some back and forth about whether or not, at their peak, that Roy Halladay or Greg Maddux was the better pitcher. I came down on the side of Maddux, while most others seemed to favor Halladay. Here are a few thoughts about their peak value, as well as their career long exploits.

Maddux: 8 All-Star Games, 4 Cy Young Awards (1992-95), 18 Gold Gloves
Halladay: 8 All-Star Games, 2 Cy Young Awards (2003, 2010), 0 Gold Gloves

Maddux: Top-5 in ERA 10 times, Top-5 in WHIP 10 times
Halladay: Top-5 in ERA 7 times, Top-5 in WHIP 6 times

Maddux: Top-5 in IP 11 times, Top-5 in WAR 11 times
Halladay: Top-5 in IP 8 times, 6 times

Who had the best four year span of pitching? Come on now.

Maddux (1992-95): 75-29, 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.97 K/9, 4.16 K/BB, ERA+ 200
Not only did Maddux win 4-straight Cy Young awards, he posted a 4-year ERA under 2.00. Oh, and that ERA+ mark points out that his ERA was, literally, 100 percent better than the league average (If you had a 3.00 ERA, and the league ERA was 3.00 it would be 3.00/3.00 = 1.00). His ERA was 1.98 while the leagues mark was 3.96.

Halladay (2006-10): 90-43, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.89 K/9, 4.86 K/BB, ERA+148
Halladay won 15 more games, but he also lost 14 more. His ERA was nearly a full run higher, and in a surprise to most I would bet, Maddux produced a better K/9 mark in our four year comparison.

Maddux was a more durable pitcher. Think about this. As great as Halladay is, for all those innings he eats up, he hasn’t even tossed half as many innings as Maddux did in his career and he’s already 34 years old (2,482 innings compared to 5008.1). How many more elite seasons does Doc have left in his body?

I just can’t see how anyone could side with Halladay here.

ODDS AND ENDS

J.J. Hardy continues to impress. Since June 1st he has 21 homers, tied with Albert Pujols for the major league lead. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it. On the the year his 23 homers are 13 more than Orioles’ shortstops hit the last three years. Wow. He also leads AL shortstops with a .988 fielding percentage.

Zack Greinke might be 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the road, but in 10 starts at home with the Brewers he has gone 8-0 with a 3.36 ERA an a 1.03 WHIP. Toss in a stupendous 11.89 K/9 mark and 9.44 K/BB ratio and you can make an argument that he has been the best “home” pitcher in baseball this year.

Casper Wells has only 250 big league at-bats, but he’s hit .296 with 13 homers, 41 RBI and 39 runs scored in that time. Dealt to the Mariners from the Tigers in the Doug Fister deal, Wells has taken off hitting .341 with five homers, 12 RBI, two steals an a 1.102 OPS in just 12 games. For those of you looking for a waiver-wire boost there aren’t likely to be many options performing better right now.

Finally, don’t forget to sign up for this weeks fantasy baseball contest that will be held on Friday. You can sign up to play me in the one day contest, it’s FREE, and you can win real money. For more see Win $100 FREE Taking on BBGuys.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn

Photo By Gradeki

On an almost daily basis I get an email from someone asking me about Ryan Raburn. Usually they read something like ‘this guy will hit 30 homers this year for sure if he gets 500 at-bats.’ Well, let’s take a look and see if (a) he is lined up for 500 at-bats, (b) if he ‘will’ hit 30 homers and (c) what his fantasy value is for the 2011 season.

PLAYING TIME

Ryan Raburn will start in left field for the Tigers. The team will go with Austin Jackson in center, and Magglio Ordonez in right on most day, and it appears that more often than not Victor Martinez will serve as the DH. The Tigers made the decision to send Scott Sizemore down and give the starting spot at second base to Will Rhymes until Carlos Guillen is back at full strength and ready to play every day (if that will ever happen no one knows). What all of that means is that Raburn had better keep hitting or he could start to lose some playing time, especially with Casper Wells and Brennan Boesch around to take away some at-bats in the outfield if need be. Even with all of that, Raburn appears set to make 140 starts in 2011, so in terms of playing time you’d have to give him the thumbs up after he’s appeared in 113 games each of the past two years.

A HOMER BINGE?

In his career, Raburn has hit 39 homers in 981 at-bats, or one every 25 at-bats. If he is able to keep that pace in the coming season he would need 750 at-bats to reach 30 homers. Clearly that isn’t going to happen. However, he has upped the homer ante a bit the past two years leading to 31 homers in 632 at-bats. Still, it’s pretty difficult to envision a scenario in which he blows past 600 at-bats this year, so that’s going to make his run to 30 homers this season a bit difficult. He does have a slightly elevated carer fly ball rate of about 43 percent (the big league average is about 38 percent), and a slightly better than average HR/F mark of 12.5 percent. Again, neither of those numbers screams out 30 homers. I hate projecting actual numbers, but if you pressed me I would say 25 homers are doable for this fella with full time work.

2011 FANTASY VALUE

If Raburn hits 25 homers and plays everyday, he is going to be a mixed league asset, right? As an outfielder he would kind of blend in with the rest because (a) he won’t steal many bases (14 in his career) and (b) because he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats his batting average could settle in right around his career mark of .274. However, if he qualifies as a second baseman in your league, than it’s bonanza time because a .270 hitting, 20 homer threat up the middle has a lot of value. Unfortunately, Jim Leyland must not play fantasy baseball as he allowed Raburn to play second base just 18 times last season, two short of the standard requirement of 20 games played for eligibility. Check your league rules on this as his fantasy value goes through the roof if he qualifies at second base (he could be a top-15 guy at second).

I’ve mentioned playing time in this piece, but I’ve only talked about the upside. You might have asked yourself ‘if Raburn is such a solid hitter, how is it that he has less than a thousand at-bats even though he has appeared in five big league seasons?’ One of the main reasons is that he is a vastly superior performer against left-handed pitching. It’s not that he is awful against righties (.278/.323/.430) but his slash line is certainly inferior to his work against lefties (.269/.346/.514). In fact, in 561 at-bats against righties in his career he has a mere 16 homers. That number can’t make you feel too good about his prospects of going deep 25+ times in 2011 can it? On top of that, the Tigers do have Brennan Boesch whom they’ll want to get some at-bats, and though he looked awful for long stretches last year he did murder left-handed pitching (.337/.403/.548). If Raburn struggles a bit, could he lose some of his starts against lefties to the power hitting youngster which could mean trouble since Raburn is also a better performer against southpaws?

Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.

By Ray Flowers