2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

The Catcher’s Position

I say it every year – the catcher’s position is a field filled with landmines. There are certainly options that are elite when it comes to offensive output, but at the same time there is always an inherent risk with anyone who wears the tools of ignorance (Victor Martinez injured his knee – a torn ACL – knocking him out for the season. Was it the result of wear and tear? We may never know.). So what are my thoughts on how you should handle the catchers position, especially if you are in a league (as you should be) that has two starting backstops?

Consider the following.

Strike One.

Last year only one catcher appeared in 150 games – Carlos Santana (155).

Last year four catchers appeared in 140 games – Martinez, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and John Buck.

Last year six catchers appeared in 130 games – Yadier Molina, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Olivo.

In total we have 11 catcher eligible players who appeared in 130 games, or, to put it another way, there were only 11 catchers who appeared in more than 80 percent of their teams games. How about this – there were only 11 catchers who missed as few as a month worth of games. Think about that for a moment. If you were in a 15 team league last year you had about a 50 percent chance that your starter  behind the dish missed a month worth of game action. That alone should cause you pause when you think about reaching early for a catcher. Hidden inside this digression about games played is the point I brought up at the start – that is the fact that injuries are a huge issue for a backstop. Do you really want to spend a high level pick on a player that is, in the best case scenario, going to miss 15 percent of his teams games? What if there was a fair amount of risk that even that number would be missed (i.e. another injury – think Mike Napoli who is still dealing with an ankle injury from last season)?

Strike Two.

How about this one – how many catchers stole 10 or more bases last year? The answer is zero. Moreover, only four eligible catchers even stole five bases (Russell Martin 8, Miguel Olivo 6, Chris Iannetta 6 and Santana 5). Strike two is a total lack of speed from the player who you will have fill the catcher’s position. There simply no juice at all from backstops in the steals category.

Strike Three.

How about we talk about batting average. Amongst catcher eligible players who had 400 plate appearances do you know how many hit .290? The answer is four – V-Mart (.330) Napoli (.320), Yadier Molina (.305) and Alex Avila (.295). That’s a pretty high batting mark, so let’s drop the qualification down to .275. How many catchers hit .275? The answer is just seven (add in A.J. Pierzynski .287, Carlos Ruiz .283 and Miguel Montero .282). If we drop that number down to .270 we only add two more guys (Yorvit Torrealba .273 and Brian McCann .270). So all told we’ve got nine, not nineteen but nine, catchers who had 400 plate appearances that also hit just .270. Clearly catcher isn’t the place to look for batting average help.

Strike Four.

Is there big time power at the catchers spot? The answer is not really (five catchers hit 20 homers in 2012: Mike Napoli 30, Carlos Santana 27, Brian McCann 24, J.P. Arencebia 23 and Matt Wieters 22). The reason, chiefly, is that they just don’t play enough games. There were nine other catchers who hit between 15 and 19 homers, but that makes my point for me doesn’t it? After a mere handful of guys, pretty much any catcher you will draft is going to hit you something like 15 homers. If the difference between the #6 guy at the position in homers and the #14 guys is just four homers, less than one a month, does it really matter who your catcher is? Further, there were also four more catchers who hit 14 homers (that brings the total to 18 backstops who went deep at least 14 times). The bottom line here is that there was a lot of parody at the catcher’s position, at least in terms of the power output they provide.

I know you have to take a catcher, and I know it matters who you end up with. There is no doubt that there is a significant difference between Mike Napoli and Kurt Suzuki, but my point is that I’m concerned enough about the potential injury situation to always be reluctant to spend big on a catcher. Further, with most catchers missing so much playing time, it just doesn’t make much sense to reach for a catcher. In addition, no catcher is a five category contributor which should further diminish the value of those players at the position. I’m not suggesting you wait until your stuck drafting the #19 and #23 catchers as your starters, but at the same time I’m also much more comfortable targeting catchers in the 8-15 range than I am reaching early, or waiting late, on getting my backstop duo.

Check out the link to Fleaflicker for their rankings on the catcher’s position.

By Ray Flowers

Behind the Dish

photo © 2011 Adam Jackson | more info (via: Wylio)

Buster Posey was creamed last night at the plate in a collision with Scott Cousins. Was it a dirty play? I don’t believe so, but that’s a discussion for another day. The issue at this point is what do you do if you own Posey because a report from Amy Guttierrez says that Buster Posey is in a cast (the team has already placed him on the DL with a broken leg, and unconfirmed reports are circulating that he also has injured ligaments in his leg)? Whatever the truth turns out to be, it’s pretty clear that in a best case scenario Posey is going to be out for the foreseeable future – at best.

This situation will send all Posey owners scrambling to the waiver-wire. Of the options available, who might you consider picking up? Here are some thoughts.

Ryan Doumit – .272-4-15-7-0 in 92 ABs
Who doesn’t wish that the Pirates would play him more frequently, even if it isn’t behind the dish. I mean, it’s not like Lyle Overbay is tearing it up at first base is it? He isn’t for those of you wonder as he’s hitting .235 with a .662 OPS. Doumit has flashed his power bat in May hitting .289/.351/.477. The best thing for him could be a deal to a team that would play him everyday. Until then, at a weak hitting position, he still is someone you need to consider.

Ryan Hanigan – .261-2-12-12-0 in 92 ABs
He isn’t close to an everyday option, not with Ramon Hernandez around (.327-6-15), but it might surprise you to learn that Hernandez only has 12 more at-bats than Hanigan. Why would I suggest adding a guy who is hitting .261 with a .359 SLG? Because there is no downside here. Hanigan never strikes out, in his career he’s walked more times than he’s whiffed, and that means there is virtually no chance that his average will fall below where it is right now (career .276). You could do a lot worse as a second catcher in mixed leagues, but he would be stretched as a starter if you only use one backstop.

Jonathan Lucroy – .321-5-22-15-0 in 112 ABs
The name everyone is interested in, and why wouldn’t you be given his work to this point? Be warned though. Unless your name is Joe Mauer or Mike Piazza, catchers don’t hit over .320. Second, though he looks to have a huge a power bat, Lucroy has a 48 percent ground ball rate that will keep the big flies in check. The only reason he has five bombs already is due to an unsustainable 17 percent HR/F rate. He’s probably already snatched up unless you are in a shallow league, but if he isn’t, give him a look – there’s likely to be plenty of production from this bat.

Miguel Olivo – .229-4-15-20-4 in 144 ABs
He’s not hitting very well, but what’s new if you are a Seattle Mariner? However, three things of note. (1) He  has four steals, a huge boost at a position where guys don’t run. (2) He plays everyday. His total of 144 at-bats is 10th at the position (3) Each of the last five years he has hit at least 12 homers with 41 RBI. Those seem like mild totals but only he and Brian McCann can say that they have reached both totals each of the last five years.

Mike Napoli – .185-6-16-15-1 in 92 ABs
I blame this one on the Rangers. When Napoli was hot to start the year the Rangers just kept sitting him on the bench. Despite their thoughts, what I see is the seeds of success. Napoli currently has the best walk rate of his career, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and his 18.2 HR/F ratio is a dead on match for his 18.1 percent career mark. One this hits start falling, his BABIP is .172, only .114 points below his career mark, he’ll return to being a power hitting star at the position… that is if the Rangers ever play him.

Wilson Ramos – .255-3-11-18-0 in 110 ABs
As great as he was in April (.358) he has been as bad in May (.158). He has value, but it may only be in certain spots right now. Consider these two points. (1) You only want to play him at home where he has hit .349 with a .990 OPS (his marks on the road are .194 and .605). (2) He has killed lefties (.323/.462/.484) while struggling badly against righties (.228/.284/.392).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .240-4-15-11-0 in 100 ABs
Salty, and no, I’m not going to type out his name again, has been a blasting of late with four bombs and seven RBI in his last five games. Long thought of as a guy who could hit .250 with 20 homers, is he finally reaching his potential after years of false starts?

Kurt Suzuki – .252-4-13-17-1 in 155 ABs
I cant understand how, after three solid years, that this guy is on so many waiver-wires. He’s currently working on his best BB/K mark of 0.82 (career 0.61), and though his has a superb 22.5 percent line drive rate he has only been rewarded with a .261 BABIP that isn’t even the equal of his career rate of .276. I see lots of room for improvement here.

My rest of the way rankings of these catchers:

Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Jonathan Lucroy
Miguel Olivo
Ryan Doumit
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Wilson Ramos
Ryan Hanigan

By Ray Flowers