Losing Touch

Sometimes I want to puke. Here’s is a quote from Miguel Cairo from the USA Today: “I haven’t made a ton of money in this game. But I’ve cashed a lot of playoff checks.” Huh? Miguel he has made the playoffs on in five different seasons, but that about the other part of that quote – I haven’t made a ton of money in this game. This explains, explicitly, just how out of touch some athletes are. According to BaseballReference.com, Cairo has made $7.075 million in his career. First off, the guy should be praying to the gods for their support since it’s amazing that a guy who owns a pathetic .267/.316/.361 career line has been paid that much dough. Secondly, are you kidding me here Mr. Cairo? You’ve made more than seven m-i-l-l-i-o-n dollars in your career. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average median household income in 2009 was $49,777. That means, in just a few short years – 142 to be exact – the average U.S. household will be able to make as much money as Cairo has in his 15 season baseball career. Get a clue Mr. Cairo.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Roy Halladay won his 20th game for the Phillies last night. He became the first Phillies’ hurler to win 20 since Steve Carlton in 1982, as well as becoming the first Phillies’ righty to win 20 since Robin Roberts in 1955. It was the third 20-wins season for Halladay, his career-high is 22 back in 2003. He also won 19 games back in 2002.

The Orioles went 32-73 when Dave Trembley was the manager. Since they switched over to Buck Showalter they have gone 29-17. That means the club has more than doubled its winning percentage since the managerial change was made going from a team with a .305 winning percentage to a .630 club. That’s truly amazing.

After a bit of a slow start CC Sabathia has really kicked things into gear. Not only has he won 20-games for the first time, you can read about that in Three’s Company, he has also gone bonkers over his last 21 starts going 16-3 with a 2.52 ERA for the Yankees.

Wandy Rodriguez was having a down season as well causing him to be found on plenty of waiver-wire’s in shallow leagues around mid year. Over his last 16 starts all he has done is go 8-2 with a 1.93 ERA to reward those that picked him up, or had patience and held on to him all year.

I know this is a baseball site, but I like to think of myself as a bit more well rounded. I’m no Leonardo Da Vinci or Michaelangelo, but I do write about football (NFL Player Rater: Week 2) and hockey (Frozen Pucks: Camp Begins) all the time. However, it’s a note from the world of basketball that simply blew me away.

According to Reid Cherner of USA Today, Dan Gilbert hates, an I mean with a passion, LeBron James (Gilbert owns the Cleveland Cavaliers). James, who in the mind of Gilbert is a turncoat of immense proportions for choosing to leave the Cavaliers to join the Heat, had his Fathead sign lowered in price from $99.99 to $17.41. Why the massive drop in price? Gilbert also owns Fathead, and to show his outright contempt for LeBron he chose to put LeBron’s sign on sale for $17.41 to reflect the year that American traitor Benedict Arnold was born. Think I’m full of it? Here is the link to the LeBron is a traitor article. That’s one serious man who is charge of the Cavs and Fathead.

By Ray Flowers

History is at Hand

Jose Bautista is nearing a nice round number that will place him in elite historical company, while Yankees’ hurler CC Sabathia has already reached his magic number on the hill.

Jose Bautista has hit 49 homers, the most in baseball in 2010. I’m sure I will revisit this completely nonsensical season he is having at some point when it’s all wrapped up, but here are a few things to gnaw on until then.

First, he leads baseball in homers by a total of 10 (Albert Pujols is second with 39).

Second, Bautista hit 43 homers the past three seasons – combined.

Third, by my count, there have been 41 seasons in baseball history of 50 homers. There are only a few names that really stand out on that list, and they are Greg Vaughn (50 in 1998) and Brady Anderson (50 in 1996). Vaughn was a power hitter of some repute, he did blast 355 homers in his career including two other seasons of at least 40-homers, but his name still doesn’t fit in very well on the list. As for Anderson, he is likely the guy everyone will compare Bautista to in their end of the year write ups of the Blue Jays’ outfielder/third basemen. Anderson’s season was the most improbable homer season in history – until Bautista’s this year. Anderson had a career-high of 21 homers entering his 50 homer campaign (Bautista had never hit more than 16), but Brady never even remotely approached that level of effectiveness again with a secondary career best of 24. Makes you wonder about what Bautista will do for a follow up doesn’t it?

CC Sabathia is one of the stars of the game on the hill. He has won 156 games in his career – against only 87 loses (.642 winning percentage) – including at least 11 victories each season since 2001. By the way, he is the only pitcher in baseball who has won that many each of the past 10 seasons. CC has also struck out as many as 251 batters in a season, has been named to four All-Star teams, and he won the Cy Young Award in 2007 (he also finished in the top-5 two other times – 2009 in the NL with the Brewers and 2009 in the AL with the Yankees). Yet he had never accomplished what he did in his last start, and that is winning 20 games in a season.

With the advent of the 5-man rotation, pitch and innings counts, and teams just being flat out cautious because they have so much money invested in their arms, it’s fairly difficult, even if one pitches very well, to get to 20 wins. Figure this way. If you a guy makes 33 starts he has to win nearly 61 percent of his starts to get to 20 wins. In the case of CC, even with all his innings and that great winning percentage, it took him until his 10th season to pull off the trick. In fact, since the calendar flipped to the 21st century there have been a mere 35 twenty win seasons in baseball or an average of 3.5 a year. In the AL Jon Lester has 18 victories, while over in the NL a trio of hurlers are sitting at 19 – Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright – so one or more may still yet join Sabathia in the 20-win club.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers

First Half Pitching Stars

We have a great tool called the Player Rater at Fanball. I write a weekly article where I breakdown the top-50 fantasy performers in the game, and you can find the actual Player Rater Tool by clicking on the link. This week I did things a bit different. Since we are at the half way point of the season I broke down the top-10 guys at each position, versus the top-50 overall, and you can read that breakdown at MLB Player Rater: Midseason Stars. In the current piece here at BaseballGuys I’ll break down the top-20 hurlers in the fantasy game as major league baseball gears up for the All-Star Game.

1- Adam Wainwright
He is second in the NL with a 2.11 ERA and a total of 13 victories, while he is second in innings pitched (136.1) and third in WHIP (1.00). The dude is a flat out ace.

2- Josh Johnson
All the early season talk of the #3 man on the list has obscured the fact that JJ leads baseball with a 1.70 ERA and the NL with a 0.96 WHIP. Also, he’s allowed more than one earned run just once in his last 11 starts (he gave up two runs on June 26th).

3- Ubaldo Jimenez
The numbers are spectacular highlighted by by his big league leading 15-1 record and his 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Clearly he’s not affected by the altitude in Colorado.

4- Roy Halladay
Halladay leads baseball with 148 IP, the third highest total in the NL in 15 years at the All-Star break, and his ratios are phenomenal (2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP). So how is he only 10-7? Come on Phillies offense, get to it.

5- Billy Wagner
What’s up with that retirement talk Billy? There is no need to contemplate hanging them up given his outstanding work that includes 20 saves, a 1.21 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP an a .156 BAA in 37.1 innings.

6- Mat Latos
Did you know that he is third in baseball with a 0.97 WHIP? Latos also has a 2.45 ERA for the Padres, but the team will likely be cautious with him in the second half because of innings pitched concerns.

7- Mariano Rivera
Amazingly, the guy just never seems to slow down. Is he getting even better with age? His numbers suggest it might be possible: 1.05 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .137 BAA and 20 saves.

8- Rafael Soriano
His K-rate is well off the pace at 7.75 (career 9.68), but otherwise the rest of his performance has been pretty special including a 1.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a stupendous 23-for-24 save conversion mark.

9- Jon Lester
The first lefty starter on the list, Lester overcame a slow start to produce a line that any starter in baseball would be proud of. Lester is 11-3 for the Sox, and ratios like a 2.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are rarely seen in the AL East.

10- Cliff Lee
The newest prize in the Rangers’ corral, Lee leads baseball with a 0.95 WHIP. He’s also posting an unfathomable 15.17 K/BB rate. The best mark in the history of the game for a hurler who qualified for the ERA title is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

11- Jose Valverde
He is 19-for-20 on saves and is sporting sparkling ratios of a 0.92 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. Also, how in the world is it possible to hold batters to a .125 average through 39 innings?

12- Heath Bell
The NL leader with 24 saves has a fine 1.88 ERA, though his 1.33 WHIP would be his worst mark since moving to San Diego (it was 1.21 in 2008).

13- David Price
The AL starter in the All-Star game, Price leads the junior circuit with 12 victories. It would be a shock if he were able to hold on to that 2.42 ERA, he just hasn’t pitched well enough to really deserve that mark.

14- Jonathan Broxton
Despite an irregular usage pattern – long periods of nothing followed by intensive work – Broxton has emerged with a continuation of his 2009 season, and that is a great thing. He has 19 saves, a 2.11 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and an impressive 12.91 K/9 mark leading to a striking 7.86 K/BB rate.

15- Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 and 38 saves the past two years, and just past the halfway point this season he has converted 23 of 25 chances. He also has an impressive 50 Ks in 37.2 innings, a total that goes along swimmingly with his 1.91 ERA.

16- Joakim Soria
No one pays any attention since he pitches for the Royals, but Joakim has 25 saves, the best total in baseball. He also has a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, numbers that are slightly worse than his career averages (2.13 and 0.99).

17- Andy Pettitte
He always wins games so his 11-2 record isn’t a total shock, but his 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are since over the last four seasons he hasn’t produced an ERA better than 4.05 or a WHIP below 1.38.

18- CC Sabathia
With 12 victories he has already posted a 10th straight season of at least 11 wins. He’s also near the top of the AL in ERA (3.09) and WHIP (1.14) which is a yearly occurrence at this point.

19- Leo Nunez
He entered the year with question marks but he has answered them. His 1.55 GB/FB ratio is a career best (career 0.94) and his K-rate is way up to 9.08 (career 6.78). It’s almost as if he is a new pitcher (potential alien abduction?). The work has led to a 1.04 WHIP and 20 saves.

20- Jered Weaver
Don’t even try lying and say that Weaver was your choice to be leading baseball in strikeouts at the All-Star Break (he has 137, six more than Tim Lincecum). That 1.08 WHIP of his is also fourth in the AL. Only his 8-5 record has held him back from being more of a national story.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

Halladay, Lackey, Lee on Move

Huge news today all over the ball field highlighted by three of the top-15 arms in the AL switching rosters while a national icon nicknamed Godzilla also switched his address.

Lackey Joins Red Sox

My thoughts on the John Lackey to Red Sox deal? A great move that gives the club the best top of the rotation in the AL as Lackey will team with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. To read more about the move (a reported 5-year, $85 million deal) and what can be expected from Lackey in 2010 click on the link to Breaking Down: John Lackey.

My Twitter account was blowing up all day with updates on the above deal, as well as those that I’m about to discuss. You can sign up to follow me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page. Come say hi, it’s really a great source to check in with all day for updated info while I’m busy plowing through feature length articles.

Did you catch the Fantasy Buffet Podcast this morning by the way? I think I’m pretty darn good answering the questions, at least better than running the show and asking them. Ted Carlson joined me on Monday, Kyle Elfrink was unavailable, and the show went well, but I’m clearly more effective at blabbing answers than pushing buttons. Luckily I’ll be returning to my more familiar an effective role on Tuesday. The show is Monday through Friday, 8-9 AM PST, for those of you that want to give it a listen.

Matsui to Angels

I wrote a breakdown of the Hideki Matsui to Angels’ deal that is being widely reported, and it should be posted sometime on Tuesday at Fanball. A quick synopsis follows:

1- Matsui is still a nice bat, though expecting anything more than last year’s .274-28-90 effort will likely lead to disappointment.

2- The move out of Yankee Stadium to Anaheim might not be as negative as you think.

3- The Angels might use the fact that they lost Lackey and only spent $6.5 million on a 1-year deal for Matsui to sign Jason Bay. After all, they have millions left to throw at a player and Bay would look great in the middle of that lineup.

And last but not least, the biggest deal of the day.

Halladay to Jays, Lee to Mariners

This deal has been reported by everyone, but all the details are still a bit foggy and could take another day or two to be ironed out. Here is what we think we know about the 3-way deal.

Phillies receive: Roy Halladay
Mariners receive: Cliff Lee
Blue Jays receive: C Travis D’Arnaud, OF Michael Turner, RHP Phillippe Aumont
(a late report said that Aumont was not in the deal but Kyle Drabek was).

There could be more names added to the deal, we are still trying to lock it down, but it’s a huge deal for the Phillies and Mariners.

So why did the Phillies do this, basically shipping out one top of the rotation ace for another? Here is what we think is the reason: money. Apparently Lee wanted a CC Sabathia-like deal to remain with the Phils, something like 7-years and $160 million. The Phils decided there was no way they would do that. Therefore, they parlayed Lee in the deal to bring in Halladay, who not only is a better pitcher, but one who was willing to sign a more reasonable deal with early reports being that Halladay will sign a 3-year, $60+ million deal with at least one, and possibly two, option years tacked on.

In total, the Phillies upgraded slightly on the hill, kept their payroll at an acceptable level by not giving a massive extension to Lee, and also seemingly held on to their top minor league talent that they were unwilling to move at the trade deadline when they tried unsuccessfully to add Halladay.

As for Lee, he gets to pitch in a nice pitcher’s park in the Northwest, though we’ll have to see if the club is willing to give the soon to be free agent (2010 is his last year under contract) the massive dollar figures he wants to serve as the #2 arm in their rotation behind Felix Hernandez.

All in all this was one hell of a day for the middle of December. I need to take a break now, pull back on some spiked eggnog, and truly reflect on yet another wonderful day at my job.

Cheers.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Starting Pitchers

The following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. This list represents my top-10 starting pitchers heading into the ’09 campaign. Let this list be reason number 1,976 as to why it makes little sense to draft a starting pitcher early as they are just so volatile. What do I mean? Take a look at the list. The top guy made his fewest starts since 2002. The #5 guy was a huge disappointment. #6? He made all of one start, and #7 pitched his fewest innings since his rookie year in 2002. And it’s not like I chose crazy hurlers for my list. Of the nine Fanball employees who ranked the top-10′s at each position, here is the total of how many times each of those injured pitchers were mentioned.

Johan Santana – nine
Brandon Webb – nine
Jake Peavy – eight

Just goes to show you that taking hitters early in drafts is likely the safer play. Now on to a review of my list.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. CC Sabathia

4. Roy Halladay

5. Cole Hamels

6. Brandon Webb

7. Jake Peavy

8. Dan Haren

9. James Shields

10. Felix Hernandez

Santana won 13 games with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP though he did toss only 166.2 innings his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003. Reports are that his arm should be 100 percent by opening day 2010.

Lincecum actually improved in his second full season winning his second straight Cy Young. He lowered his ERA by 0.14 down to 2.48, his WHIP by 0.12 (down to 1.05), and held batters to an anemic .206 BAA, .015 points below his ’08 mark. The best thing going – end of story.

Sabathia had a terrific first season in pinstripes giving the Yankees exactly what they paid for. He won 19 games, struck out 197, posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while eating up 230 innings. A free agent signing who delivered handsomely.

Halladay continues to be a throwback to years gone by. He tossed nine complete games, produced four shutouts, twirled 239 innings and along the way won 17 games for a poor team. He also posted a sub 2.80 ERA for a second straight year, an unheard of occurrence in the AL in this age of offense.

Hamels was terrible if you look only at the results (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, a deeper look at the numbers says that he was extremely unlucky (a .325 BABIP can be blamed – it was .289 and .270 the previous two years), and therefore he should rebound in 2010.

Webb made that one start and his year was over with a wonky shoulder that required surgery. He is back in the desert on an option year deal with the D’backs in his attempt to reassert himself as a top flight option after 5-straight years over 200-innings.

Peavy finally was moved from San Diego to the White Sox, but his year was marred by an ankle injury and later some issues with his elbow that limited him to a mere 16 starts. He posted 110 Ks and a 1.12 WHIP in 101.2 innings but will likely find success harder to come by in a hitters’ yard in Chicago.

Haren was spectacular at the start of the year (9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP prior to the All-Star game) before pulling his now annual second half fade (5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Still, no one in the game was disappointed with his final numbers: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings.

Shields had his worst season in three years seeing his sub four ERA rise to 4.14 while having his WHIP rise to 1.32 (it had been under 1.16 the previous two seasons). Still, he lasted more than 215 innings for a third straight year though he’ll need to reign in the free passes a bit to return to his previous levels.

Hernandez, in retrospect, should have been higher on my list, though I can’t give myself too much grief as I was the only one of the nine staffers who had him ranked in the top-10. All he did was go 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP. Not a bad season for a guy who doesn’t turn 24 until April 2010.

By Ray Flowers

The Evil Empire

“You don’t know the power of the dark side!” If you haven’t been living on a desert island for the past, oh, 30 years, you know that this is a quite from Darth Vader of Star Wars fame. If you don’t know who he is, I truly feel sorry for you, but sufficed to say that he is the leader of the “evil” side in the battle for the universe, and helps to patrol over the dominion of the “Evil Empire.” Taking a page from this saga, Red Sox President Larry Lucchoino in 2002 deemed the Yankees “The Evil Empire” for their propensity to spend whatever it cost to put together the best team money can buy. This has been the case basically for the past 15 years, and it continues to be a massive question that needs to be addressed if the idea of competitive balance is at the core of what major league baseball really want to address (currently there is no salary cap, only a luxury tax). Consider the following three points.

1- The Yankees 40-man payroll in 2009 cost over $215 million. The next highest team was the other one from New York, the Mets, and their payroll was “only” $141 million (these totals are from an article by Jayson Stark).

2- The difference between the Yankees and the Mets, some $74 million, is more than the entire payroll of nine teams.

3- If you add up the payrolls of the Marlins, Padres, Pirates and Athletics those four teams come in at less than $190 million, or $25 million less than the Yankees.

Obviously the Yankees spending is a huge problem, one that threatens to ruin the game in my opinion if left unchecked, but the point of the article by Mr. Stark was that there is something fishing going on here. Distilling his piece down into one sentence, here is what we get:

Major league teams pocket $80 million before they sell a single ticket because of revenue sharing, radio and television money, and the central fund.

This raises the obvious question. If major league baseball is a $6 billion dollar a year business, and teams do in fact receive $80 million a year before selling a single ticket, how is it possible that 12 teams failed to have a payroll of $80 million in 2009? Here is the explanation of MLB’s chief labor negotiator, Rod Manfred. “You need to understand that these teams have expenses in addition to the 25-man roster on the field…They have the cost of their player-development system, which averages $15 million [per team] a year. They have the cost of acquiring [amateur] players through the [June] draft and internationally, which averages $9 million [per team] a year.” While that might all be true, the $80 million figure listed above does not include ticket sales, parking, sponsorships, souvenirs etc. With all that extra do coming in, is there really a reason that any team shouldn’t be able to spend $80 million on payroll?

After all of that Mr. Stark says that we shouldn’t blame the Yankees because at least they take that money and shove it back into their payroll. However, what does a team like the Marlins, who had the lowest payroll in baseball at under $40 million, do with all that extra dough? Honestly, a team like the Marlins just might be out-profiting clubs that spend three times as much money, even if their ticket sales are rather diminutive.

In the end I still hate the Yankees, and the fact that they simply try to buy championships. But this is a free market society, and a free market game, so you can’t blame them for taking advantage of the rules. However, if you are a Marlins fan, you might want to ask your team where that extra $40 million dollars is going because it clearly isn’t being invested in the on the field product.

By Ray Flowers

The AL Cy Young Race

Yesterday I tackled the NL Cy Young Race, so for the purpose of symmetry it only made sense that I would address the AL situation. Being someone who likes a completed circle as much as the next guy, here is my take on the Junior Circuit’s race for the top pitcher of the year award.

While there were three men up for the award in the NL, I see a field of five men vying for the award this season in the AL. I’ll give each guys numbers and then add a few thoughts why the are deserving, and not deserving, of the award.

Zack Greinke
16-8, 2.16 ERA, 242 K 1.07 WHIP in 229.1 IP
Reasons for: Led the AL In ERA and WHIP while finishing second in Ks, fifth in IP and second in batting average against (.230). Also posted a tremendous 4.75 K/BB mark. He also showed an amazing ability to remain consistent posting virtually identical numbers before (2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and after (2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) the All-Star game.

Reasons against: He won only 16 games for a team that won only 65 contests.

Roy Halladay
17-10, 2.79 ERA, 208 K, 1.13 WHIP in 239 IP
Reasons for: Third in the league in ERA and second in WHIP. Halladay was also second in innings (one behind Verlander), though he still led the circuit in complete games (nine) and shutouts (four). That total of CGs is more than the total of seven posted by Verlander, Sabathia and Hernandez. He had a hiccup in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) but was great in September (4-2, 1.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP).

Reasons against: His team wasn’t as bad as Greinke’s Royals, but the Jays won just 75 games. Plus, as good as his numbers were, there were others who were better in almost all categories except for CGs.

Felix Hernandez
19-5, 2.49 ERA, 217 K, 1.14 WHIP in 238.2 IP
Reasons for: Tied for the league lead with 19 victories and finished third in innings pitched. Pretty quietly he also came in second in ERA, third in WHIP and fourth in strikeouts while leading the league with a .227 BAA. Was also fantastic in both the first (9-3, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and second (10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) half.

Reasons against: No one ever sees him pitch since he is on the Mariners. Will he be punished because his team was barely better than average (85 victories) and because people on the east coast rarely stay up late enough to watch him pitch?

CC Sabathia
19-8, 3.37 ERA, 197 K, 1.15 WHIP in 230 IP
Reasons for: Pitches for the Yankees and lead the league with 19 victories. Third in the league in BAA (.232), fourth in ERA, fourth in WHIP and seventh in strikeouts.

Reasons against: Sure he led the league in victories and gave the Yankees all they hoped for when they back up the money truck, but his numbers, other than the wins, just don’t measure up to the others.

Justin Verlander
19-9, 3.45 ERA, 269 K, 1.18 WHIP in 240 IP
Reasons for: Led the majors with 269 Ks while his innings pitched total also paced all of baseball. He was also very effective in both the first (10 wins, 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHP) and second half (nine wins, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) showing season long dominance.

Reasons against: Had a great bounce back season and no one was more dominating, but at the same time his ratios were a bit behind the others.

So how do I rank these guys? Just like in the NL, I think the choice is obvious.

5. Sabathia – Too much attention given to wins and being a Yankee.
4. Verlander – Ks and innings are great, but not good enough.
3. Halladay – He was a lot better than most give him credit for.
2. Hernandez – In many other years he would be the choice.
1. Greinke – The most dominating hurler in the league, period.

By Ray Flowers