Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Radiant Relievers

Yesterday in How to Evaluate Relievers, I gave my general theory with relievers – that is to target skills over role. While some spend their resources on draft day for Kevin Gregg and Brandon Lyon types, I’ve always been content to target power arms like Madson, Thornton and Hanrahan. Below, I’ll give my thoughts on some of the relievers I’m targeting this season – hopefully you won’t take them from me if we are in a league together.

Joel Hanrahan: This call is sort of cheating. Everyone knows who Hanrahan is, and there is at least a 50/50 chance that he will close at the start of the season for the Pirates over Evan Meek, but I love Joel’s arm (current ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central have Hanrahan at 337 and Meek at 383). Hanrahan certainly has better skills than guys being drafted ahead of him like Fernando Rodney (260), Brian Fuentes (271), Kevin Gregg (286) and Ryan Franklin (288), but people are worried about his role. Check out what Hanrahan did last year: 12.92 K/9 and 3.85 K/BB including a 13.50 K/9 and a 4.00 K/BB ratio over his last 33 appearances. I’m targeting this power righty.

Bobby Jenks: I wrote about Jenks when he signed his 2-year deal with the Red Sox in Hot Stove: Signings Galore. Most will overlook him on draft day because of the fact that he is behind Jonathan Papelbon, and potentially Daniel Bard, but Jenks was actually pretty darn good last season (check out the link for an explanation of that statement). In addition to the solid skills, I think that Jenks would be the fall back option in the 9th if Papelbon is hurt or dealt to another club, so that’s another feather in his cap.

Brandon League: In A Hip That Makes You Hop?, I broke down the Mariners’ bullpen situation and gave a litany of thoughts as to why I’m all about taking League late in drafts (397) instead of Aardsma much earlier (280). One more little diddy on League. Since he started his career in 2004 he owns a career GB/FB rate of 3.09. Amongst hurlers who have tossed at least 280-innings since then, League’s GB/FB mark is third in baseball behind Cla Meredith (3.66) and Brandon Webb (3.51).

Ryan Madson: I’m telling you, this guy is a burgeoning bullpen star. OK, he blows chunks half the time he is given a shot at pitching the 9th inning, but just look at the consistency he has brought in ERA and WHIP the last four years.

ERA: 3.05, 3.05, 3.26, 2.55
WHIP: 1.27, 1.23, 1.23, 1.04

Madson has also seen his K/9 mark rise in each of the past four seasons: 6.63, 6.91, 7.29, 9.08 and 10.87. Not surprisingly, he has seen his K/BB ratio improve each of he past three years: 1.87, 2.91, 3.55 and 4.92. Last time I checked, a K/9 of nearly 11.00 and a K/BB mark of nearly 5.00 are historically good numbers (only 12 hurlers have hit both of those numbers in the same season since the calendar flipped to 2000). Don’t be afraid to nab Madson late in drafts.

Edward Mujica: Another one of those wondrous arms from San Diego, Mujica was sent to the Marlins in the deal for Cameron Maybin (you can read about that deal in Four in One). Mujica was simply dynamic last season with a 9.30 K/9 rate and a 0.78 BB/9 rate which led to a stupendous 12.00 K/BB mark. Mujica was just the fourth pitcher in the history of baseball to have a season with a 12.00 K/BB mark while throwing at last 65 innings (Bert Dorr in 1882, Dennis Eckersley in 1990 and Mariano Rivera in 2008).

Chad Qualls: I’ve already explained why Qualls is a terrific bounce back option in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29th. I look for him to rebound strongly in San Diego after signing a 1-year, $1.5 million deal.

Matt Thornton: I’m on record saying he has been the best left-handed reliever in baseball the past three years. I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves.

2008-10: 16-10, 2.67 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11.01 K/9, 4.15 K/BB, 6.60 H/9 in 200.1 IP

Dominating.

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 21, 2010

(1) Clayton Kershaw suspended, then appeals suspension.

(2) Brett Myers, 20 starts, 20 outings of at least six innings.

(3) Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Adam LaRoche rumors heating up.

(4) Mets looking to bolster bullpen.

(5) Pedro Martinez will not pitch in 2010.

(6) Scott Sizemore to play third base for Tigers.

(7) Carl Crawford doesn’t wear a cup.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 14, 2010

(1) Interleague play returns on Tuesday.

(2) Trade talks heating up – Roy Oswalt, Ty Wigginton, Conor Jackson, Mike Lowell etc.

(3) Jeff Suppan returns to Cardinals.

(4) Pablo Sandoval continues to struggle, hitting .234 last 39 games.

(5) Matt Cain new Giants “ace”?

(6) Chad Qualls likely out in favor of Aaron Heilman at closer for D’backs.

(7) Pedro Alvarez on verge of being called up for Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Diamond

I went to the dentist today. (1) Who would ever want to spend their day with their fingers in someone’s mouth? (2) I hate the dentist – though who doesn’t? (3) At least if they are gonna make me go and inflict copious amounts of pain on me they could have some eye candy for me to look at, right? Only seems fair to me.

With each passing outing I grow more and more fond of this Mike Leake kid. He skipped the minors completely after being the 8th overall selection in the 2009 Entry Draft, and that looked like a major faux pas when he walked 12 batters in his first two big league starts. Well, consider those worries completely alleviated. Leake has gone at least six innings in each of his 10 starts, and nine times the outings have been of the “quality” variety as he has lowered his ERA to 2.45 on the year. Oh yeah, and the walks, they are no longer a problem as he has walked all of 13 batters in his last eight appearances.

The Braves are 16-4 since May 10th as they have made up 7.5 games in the standings. You didn’t make the mistake of thinking they wouldn’t be in the mix this year, did you?

The Brewers went 9-0 against the Marlins in 1998. Since then they are 30-48 in the matchup.

Speaking of the Brewers, Corey Hart is blazing hot right now with 10 homers and 21 RBI over his last 16 games. Hart also has a fantastic .800 SLG in that time as he is averaging one blast every 6.50 at-bats, though there are also some rather odd numbers to be found such as his .299 OBP and the fact that he’s only scored two runs when he didn’t knock himself in with a dinger.

I know it sounds crazy, but Aaron Heilman is the best reliever the D’backs have going right now. It’s not inconceivable that he could get a few chances in the ninth inning thanks to his 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, numbers that blow doors on Chad Qualls (7.64 and 2.09) and Juan Gutierrez (10.00 and 1.72).

How disappointing was that Giants/Rockies game on Monday? Ubaldo Jimenez was once again spectacular with a complete game four hit shutout, but Tim Lincecum failed to step up as he allowed five walks and four runs (three earned) before being pulled after 121 pitches and just 5.2 innings. The Giants desperately need Lincecum to figure out what ails him – possibly issues range from blisters to a mechanical glitch – or they’ll have no chance to compete in the NL West. As for Jimenez, he tossed 130 pitches on Monday and is third in baseball in pitches thrown (1,218) behind Justin Verlander (1,243) and Roy Halladay (1,220). Verlander has three 120-pitch outings, Halladay two and Jimenez four by the way. All bear close watching as they are throwing an awful lot of pitches right now. One last note on Jimenez. If he were to allow 19 runs in his next start and not record a single out he was still have an ERA below 2.95. That’s truly amazing.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 20th grand slam on Monday to move into third place all-time in salami’s behind the Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig (23), and the Iron Head, Manny Ramirez (21). A-Rod hit .250 with two homers in April, but he was the same old A-Rod in May hitting five bombs while knocking in 27 runners in 27 games played. He also hit a fine .330 on the month.

I just started watching the series 24 for the first time on DVD. Don’t know how people waited an entire week to watch the next episode. And yes, I find Nina attractive.

Grady Sizemore was transferred from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL meaning that in a best case scenario he would return a couple of weeks after the All-Star game. He might still need more extensive surgery than what is currently planned, the doctors won’t know until they get in there, so there is a chance that he might end up missing the rest of the season.

Overall batters are hitting.215 this season against Justin Verlander. However, they seem to be able get to him before he settles in as evidenced by his .370 batting average against in the first inning. After that, they have no shot.

By Ray Flowers

Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 24, 2010

(1) Russell Branyan to start at 1B for Indians sending Matt LaPorta to left field and Michael Brantley to Triple-A.

(2) Cliff Lee throws for first time since minor foot surgery.

(3) Astros to have 9th inning competition between Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom. You can read my thoughts in Breaking Down: Lyon/Lindstrom.

(4) Josh Hamilton injures shoulder.

(5) Livan Hernandez signs with Nationals for $900,000 plus incentives.

(6) Hank Blalock to Marlins/Rays as left-handed power bat off bench?

(7) Chad Qualls undervalued on draft day with an ADP of over 200.

(8) Olympic anguish with ice hockey being taped delayed. You can witness my frustration at USA Olympic Hockey Delay.

By Ray Flowers