Winding Down

It might be football season, I’m not blind to that, but you know at BaseballGuys that I will always keep up the good fight, leave no stone unturned, in my attempt to help you to win a fantasy baseball championship. To that end, here are a few players who I noticed some pretty interesting things about last night when I was perusing the old box scores.

Everth Cabrera is a name everyone sort of kind of knows, kind of like when you look through an unfocused pair of binoculars. You know what you are looking at, but you just find it difficult focusing on the object. In the case of Cabrera we all know he is fast, but did you noticed that he’s stolen 41 bases, the highest total in the National League? Read that again. Cabrera leads the NL in steals.

Jarrod Dyson is even less known in many circles than Everth, and that’s saying something. In fact, he is one of three players in the game who has stolen 30 bases this year with less than 375 at-bats (Cabrera has 385 by the way). Emilio Bonifacio had 30 steals and 244 at-bats while Dyson has his 30 thefts while picking up just 283 at-bats (the other player is Dee Gordon who has 31 thefts and 302 at-bats). The speed has made Dyson a tremendous option in AL-only leagues but the fact that he has zero homers and just nine RBIs is shockingly terrible news is it not?

Chase Headley has gone deep 31 times this season. Thirty-one. The last two seasons Headley had 15 homers, and he had never hit more than 12 homers in a single season before this year. Amazingly, he’s blown past those totals this year. Look no further than his HR/F ratio. If you add up his HR/F ratios from the past three years – 7.6, 6.4 and 4.3 – you end up with a mark of 18.3 percent which is lower than his 22.1 percent mark this year. There is simply no way that Headley will be able to replicate that 22.1 percent mark next year, one that is more than double his 10.3 percent career mark. Moreover, Headley has actually seen his homer total increase to the level of stardom despite a career worst fly ball rate. A career-low. You can’t more than double your career home run mark when you are hitting fewer fly balls than ever before (31.4 percent this year versus a career mark of 35 percent). Be careful in 2013.

On television right now is a produce that helps you to make tortilla bowls in the oven. Does anyone really need that? I mean it might be nice to have for Cinco De Mayo or something, but for anything else, I just don’t see the need. I need my cabinet space to store my copious amounts of alcohol.

Hunter Pence has knocked in 104 runs this season. One hundred and four. Is this the quietest 104 RBI season that you have ever seen? I bet 90 percent of the folks out there didn’t know he had crested 100 RBIs. Maybe it’s because he’s split time with the Phillies and the Giants, but still, he’s had a pretty impressive season. Pence has knocked in 45 runs in 56 games with the Giants while helps one to look past his pathetic .229 batting average and .695 OPS with the team. Well, sort of. He’s done a few things poorly, his .257 batting average and .753 OPS are career worsts, but he’s also hit 24 homers, driven in 104 runs and scored 87 times. This is the 5th straight year he’s hit 22 homers and the third straight season that he has crossed the plate 84 times and driven in at least 91 runners.

Clayton Kershaw has a 2.58 ERA, the best in the NL (R.A. Dickey is next in line at 2.69). If Kershaw does indeed win the NL ERA crown he will become the first pitcher in the NL to have won two ERA crowns before his age 25 season going all the way back to 1893.

Giancarlo Stanton has 91 homers in his young career, the 6th highest total in the game for a player through his age 22 season (he’s tied with Ted Williams). Stanton’s season has been up and down as he’s been forced to play through injury, but it’s been a rather impressive effort as he’s gone deep 36 times with 85 RBIs an a .290 batting average in 120 games for the Marlins.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Baseball Finale

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray take a look back at the season that is almost over. They discuss surprises. Mistakes they made to begin the season, and predictions that did AND didn’t come true.

Raul Ibanez, J.D. Martinez, Bryan LaHair, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Rickey Romero, Edwin Encarnacion, Chase Headley, A.J. Pierzynski, R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Kris Medlen.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: September 26, 2012

(1) Chase Headley now a top-5 3B?

(2) Torii Hunter finds the fountain of youth?

(3) Daniel Murphy finishing strong.

(4) Jeff Keppinger finishing strong.

(5) Pedro Alvarez reaches 30 homers.

(6) Wilin Rosario having remarkable season. Will it continue in 2013?

(7) Paul Goldschmidt and Billy Butler massive weapons facing Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 19, 2012

(1) Ian Kinsler a dynamic option at second base.

(2) What do Chase Headley, Ryan Braun and Alfonso Soriano have in common?

(3) Yonder Alonso streaking at the dish.

(4) Tim Lineceum turned his season around.

(5) Erick Aybar producing in the average and steals columns.

(6) Orioles call up phenom Dylan Bundy.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 4, 2012

(1) Kris Medlen, best pitcher in baseball?

(2) Jacoby Ellsbury struggling to produce.

(3) Chase Headley – out of control. Just killing it.

(4) Marco Scutaro strong pickup for Giants.

(5) Chris Iannetta surging at the dish.

(6) Wil Myers Minor League Player of the Year. Not getting called up Royals?

(7) Troy Tulowitzki nearing a return from groin injury?

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – PEDs

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key trades this season and the effect PEDs in fantasy: Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon.

Also, baseball only talk about players that have switched teams this year – Hanley Ramirez, James Loney, Also Chase Headley, Juan Pierre

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July25, 2012

(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?

(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?

(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?

(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?

(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.

(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).

(8)  Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July17, 2012

(1) Joey Votto out 3-4 weeks with knee injury.

(2) Jose Bautista (wrist) placed on DL. Further tests to be run.

(3) Jacoby Ellbury/Carl Crawford return to 1-2 spot for Red Sox.

(4) John Axford to loose closing job?

(5) Dan Haren (back) to return this weekend.

(6) Jeff Francis looking pretty sharp for Rockies.

(7) Brett Wallace close to call-up for Astros.

(8) Phenom Matt Harvey close to starting for Mets?

(9) Justin Upton on trade block – why?

Daily Joust – Wk 4: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (+72 to $258K in the DailyJoust salary)
Dickey had a rough start on April 18th (8 ER in 4.1 IP), but in his other three starts he’s posted a quality start each time out allowing a total of four runs. Overall his ratios aren’t that bad consider that one abysmal start (4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but it should be pointed out that he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts and his total of six longs balls allowed is already a third of the way to his total of 18 allowed last year.

Alex Gonzalez (+24, $89K)
He is what he is. That means Alex is a middling average producer with no stolen base speed and decent pop in his bat. Hitting .254, seven points above his career mark, Gonzalez has also not stolen a base (shocker since he has only six the past five years. Alas, there is that power. With four homers and 12 RBI through 19 games for the Brewers he’s well on pace to better his totals of 15 and 56 from last season with a shot at numbers akin to his 2010 effort (23 HR, 88 RBI).

Carlos Gonzalez (+17, $120K)
Come on, were you really worried? I know that some of you were, you know who you are, so hopefully his huge effort last week will put those concerns to bed. Over his last six games CarGo has four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and two steals. All of a sudden he is hitting .288 with four homers/steals, 16 RBI/runs in just 18 games of action. Elite thy name is Gonzalez.

Ramon Hernandez (+26, $105K)
A big couple of games for the aging catcher leave him with two homers, six RBI and three runs scored in his last three games. Alas, he’s still hitting a measly .241 on the year and he hasn’t walked once in 15 games. Really Ramon, not one walk? He can still be a productive bat when he plays, but the last three years he hasn’t played 100 games once. If not for Willin Rosario struggling so much (.194 with 12 Ks in 31 at-bats) Ramon might already be losing playing time.

Mike Minor (+76 to $293K)
In three games since giving up six runs in his first outing, Minor has gone 2-0 while allowing four runs on his way to three quality starts. Minor also has a 15:1 K/BB ratio in those three starts showing everyone why he was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves. He’s not quite on par with Brandon Beachy, but Minor’s star is certainly on the upswing.

Vance Worley (+68, $287K)
Worley has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts, an only one time has he allowed more than a run (he gave up four runs to the Mets in six innings). Stung by the long ball, he’s allowed four in four starts after giving up just 10 last season, Worley also has 27 punch outs in just 25 innings of work.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Chase Headley (-30, $80K)
Come on, you knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep up the pace. Over his last 10 games he has no homers and just two RBI, but on the year he has still produced 14 RBI and an .875 OPS. He has his issues, not the least of which being a ballpark that is going to keep his power numbers down, but overall this has been a pretty impressive start for Headley (see that .394 OBP).

Jason Heyward (-47, $67K)
With eight steals in 22 starts Heyward looks like a big time base stealing thief. Unfortunately, no one has ever thought of him in that light. Maybe 20-25 steals, but not 40+ like his early season base certainly suggests. Heyward has also gone deep just twice in 22 games, and his performance over his last 10 outings, other than the four steals, has left a lot to be desired (only seven hits, three RBI and four runs scored). Still, a heartening start.

Bud Norris (-53, $168K)
Eleven runs allowed in two outings will get everyone up in arms about your outlook. At the same time, Norris still had 12 Ks in those 11.2 innings, and four walks in that time isn’t an obnoxious number (seems like people over at Fleaflicker are plenty nervous though, just look at that ownership rate). The fact is, he just got pounded with his pitches in the strike zone leading to 19 hits. On the year he still has 22 Ks and just eight walks in 24.2 innings, solid numbers the both of them, and there is no way he’s going to allow four homers every two times he takes the hill.

Jose Tabata (-30, $55K)
Through 65 at-bats he has no homers and two runs scored. He’s also been caught on half of his six steal attempts. At the same time there has been some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel as he has raised his average from .111 to .231 over the last seven games as he has produced 11 hits. He still has an awful long way to go to get back to being the player who hit .299 with 19 steals in just 102 games in 2010.

Randy Wolf (-33, $165K)
Wolf was beat around for 11 runs in his first two outings, so allowing a mere six runs in his last two forays onto the bump is clearly progress. At best a 7.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 1.44 K/BB ratio says that Wolf should not be in your starting lineup. At worst it might be time to cut Wolf loose and replace him with someone else that at least won’t kill your ratios while he tries to figure out what ails him.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers