Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Spring Training Begins

(1) Eric Gagne to sign with Rockies?
*After this video was made, Gagne signed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal.

(2) Ted Lilly having knee issues.

(3) Brad Lidge struggles due to tipping pitches?

(4) Blue Jays arms on the mend – Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum.

(5) Brian Roberts dealing with back spasms.

(6) Wade Davis – no IP limit with Rays?

(7) Cliff Lee’s foot progressing well. Should throw next week.

(8) Joel Hanrahan having elbow issues. May need surgery.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Brilliance

A year after being a bit unsure about this guy because of his lack of patience and a whole bunch of strikeouts, I’m finally sold on the superlative slugger from the Brewers. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t a naysayer last year, but I did have my doubts about whether or not he could be a top-10 fantasy performer (I was thinking more like top-20). Turns out I was wrong. I think Ryan Braun could go 30/30 this year, he seems a fair bet to at go 30/20 as he did last season, and if he continues to show growth in his plate discipline he could rival Albert Pujols in the Triple Crown categories. Given that, I thought it might be fun to compare Pujols and Braun’s first three seasons in the league to one another, though remember that Braun was called up late in 2007 and appeared in only 117 games as a rookie while Pujols appeared in 161 games in his freshman season.

Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a .363 OBP and .574 SLG in 1,697 ABs

Pujols: .334-114-381-367-28 with a .412 OBP and .613 SLG in 1,771 ABs

OK, Braun clearly comes up short, but Pujols does arguably own the greatest three season run to open a career of any man who has ever played the game. Therefore, let’s lower the bar a bit and compare Braun’s first three season to some of the best hitters of recent memory to see how he stacks up. In order to make this comparison fair to everyone, I’ll list each players first three “full seasons” in the bigs since no one hits .324 with 34 homers in their rookie season as Braun did. This gives “the field” an advantage over Braun whose numbers come from his true rookie season and following two campaigns. Can anyone use that edge to best Braun’s barometer of success?

Miguel Cabrera: .318-92-342-319-15 with a .394 OBP and .547 SLG in 1,792 ABs

Prince Fielder: .276-112-302-277-12 with a .372 OBP and .536 SLG in 1,730 ABs

Todd Helton: .336-102-358-30-15 with a .415 OBP and .607 SLG in 1,688 ABs

Matt Holliday: .326-89-338-307-35 with a .387 OBP and .571 SLG in 1,171 ABs

Manny Ramirez: .315-90-307-278-16 with a .405 OBP, .559 SLG in 1,595 ABs

Alex Rodriguez: .322-101-331-364-90 with a .375 OBP and .562 SLG in 1,874 ABs

Mark Teixeira: .282-107-340-279-9 with a .362 SLG and .541 SLG in 1,718 ABs

Chase Utley: .310-82-310-328-40 with a .388 OBP and .543 SLG in 1,731 ABs

David Wright: .314-83-325-308-71 with a .396 OBP and .534 SLG in 1,761 ABs

———-

Ryan Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a 363/.574/.937 line in 1,697 ABs

Braun is the only player surveyed, other than Pujols and Teixeira, whose production is from his first three seasons in the bigs, while all others were from their first three “full seasons.”

So what does all of this mean? A couple of points stand out.

(1) Braun’s combination of batting average and home runs is nearly unmatched by any of the games current crop of stars. Only Braun, Helton and A-Rod hit at least .305 with 100 homers.

(2) Only A-Rod and Wright can match Braun’s 5×5 talents across the board.

(3) Braun is off to a start that, if not for Albert Pujols, could legitimately be called the best three season run to start a major league players career in 15 years. Sign me up for some bratwursts and Braun Milwaukee as there is little doubt in my mind that he is the top option in the outfield for fantasy leagues in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.25, 2010

Around the Horn we go, and I’ll break down the following topics in today’s video.

(1) Ben Sheets still wants $8 million. (2) Chase Utley to get more time off? (3) Rick Ankiel signs with Royals. (4) Jim Thome still looking for team. (5) Carlos Delgado’s hip an issue. (6) Johnny Damon still searching. (7) Miguel Tejada to play third base for Orioles.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Second Base

In my continuing trip down memory lane I’ll review the second base position to see how my prediction for the top-10 at the position panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

1. Ian Kinsler

2. Brian Roberts

3. Chase Utley

4. Brandon Phillips

5. Dustin Pedroia

6. Dan Uggla

7. Robinson Cano

8. Mark DeRosa

9. Kelly Johnson

10. Rickie Weeks

Kinsler was injured yet again and hit a career worst .253 making this call a bust right? Well, not really. Kinsler went 30/30 with 31 homers and 31 steals, as he also knocked in 86 runners while crossing home plate 101 times. Nothing wrong that that effort at all.

Roberts is historically good, and I’ve written it before. He has produced at least 100 runs, 30 steals and 40 doubles in 3-straight years. It may not sound like much, but it is an all-time major league record for second sackers.

Utley would have been the #2 guy on the list if it wasn’t for concerns about his surgically repaired hip (remember this was back in January when we thought Utley could miss April, and yes, I would have still had Kinsler higher than Utley last season even if dude was healthy). All Utley did was go 20/20 for the first time while hitting 31 bombs with 93 RBI and 112 runs.

You are pretty darn good when you’re an afterthought after the top group despite going 20/20 in each of the past three years. If you have to “settle” for Phillips consider yourself in good hands.

Dustin Pedroia didn’t repeat his MVP effort of 2008 (.326-17-83-118-20), but that was never going to happen anyway – though he got awfully close. He settled in and had a fine season one that was well worth a top-5 selection at the position (.296-15-72-115-20).

Uggla is a beast at the dish, a fact I recounted in Player Movement Thoughts.

Cano was, simply put, amazing. He hit a career best 25 homers, knocked in his second best total of 85 runners, scored a career-high 103 runs all the while batting .320 with 48 doubles. Time to include this man in the discussion of outright stars at the position.

DeRosa was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, and dealt with a left wrist injury that eventually required surgery when the season was over. He wasn’t great, but it’s not like a .250-23-78-78 line is weak if you play second place.

Johnson completely tanked – completely. After 2-straight years of at least .276-12-68-86-9, Johnson struggled all year hitting just .224 with eight homers and 29 RBI in just 303 ABs. Eventually the Braves turned to Martin Prado who hit .307 and now appears the favorite to start at second for the club in 2010.

I was higher on Weeks than anyone on staff. Though mid-May, I was looking like a genius. Unfortunately, Weeks was once again struck by another wrist injury, and as a result he appeared in a mere 37 games. Still, if we quadruple his effort we would end up with a .272-36-96-112-8 line which would have made me look like a genius. What could have been.

By Ray Flowers

Brotherly Love? Not so Much

“I can’t wait for it to end,” Cole Hamels said after the a Game 3 loss to the Yankees in the World Series. “It’s been mentally draining. At year’s end, you just can’t wait for a fresh start.” Those comments obviously were certainly pretty shocking, and they certainly didn’t endear Mr. Hamels with his teammates. In fact, Brett Myers, never one to avoid a melee (he was reportedly seen physically abusing his wife a few years back in Boston though charges were eventually dropped), confronted Hamels before Game 5 when an altercation ensued after Myers was heard to say “What are you doing here? I thought you quit.”

I thought these guys played for the City of Brotherly Love?

(A subsequent report says that the confrontation was “fake” and that the two hurlers remain close friends)

As a result, Hamels has lots of explaining to do (I just had an I Love Lucy flashback). He tried to start the process with the following statement. “Sometimes I might not say the best things or the smartest things, but I’ve learned and am learning. I wasn’t able to sleep the past couple of nights because of it.” Neither was I Cole, but it wasn’t because I sounded like a buffoon, it was because of this new pillow I got that seems to be just a tad too poffy to allow me to really get into the groove to get my sleep on. But I digress.

I don’t know what’s been going on in Hamels head, but clearly his performance this season has suffered – substantially. After winning 29 games the past two seasons with and ERA of 3.22, Hamels struggled along in the regular season to a 10-11 mark with a 4.32 ERA. Even worse than those regular season struggles though has been his continued misadventures in these playoffs. Hamels is 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA through four starts this post-season, this after a playoff run last season that saw him take home the NLCS (2-0, 1.93 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and World Series (1-0, 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) MVP awards.

Clearly Hamels hasn’t been at his best, and for a guy who has probably dominated nearly every batter he faced over the first 20 years of his life, one can imagine it has been rather difficult for him to find a way to deal with the struggles this year. Still, that’s no excuse for being an idiot when talking to the press. I’ve written it before, and here it is again; if you are a pro athlete never let your guard down, and do your best to give “yes” and “no” answers if at all possible. The more elucidation you offer, the more willing you are to simply “be real” with the press, the more likely you are to emerge looking like a moron. Keep your mouth shut and stick to doing what you do best – playing your sport.

WORLD SERIES NOTES

Chase Utley has tied Reggie Jackson’s record of five home runs in a single World Series.

A.J. Burnett’s failures in Game 2 (six earned runs in two innings), besides being his worst start as a Yankee, was also the first time that the Yankees’ starter hadn’t gone at least six innings in the playoffs. In five playoff appearances, Burnett is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

Ryan Howard has struck out 12 times in the Series to tie Willie Wilson’s mark from the 1980 Series.

Andy Pettitte will start Game 6 on short rest. In five previous post-season appearances on short rest Pettitte is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Overall in his playoff career Pettitte has made 39 starts going 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 243.1 innings.

Only six of the 43 teams that have been down three games to one in the Series have come back to win, the last being the 1985 KC Royals which I mentioned yesterday. The Phillies need two more wins to be the seventh.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Preview

Which team will emerge victorious in the 2009 World Series between the Phillies and the Yankees? In what follows I’ll give my thoughts on who it looks like will win this battle of two potent offenses.

OFFENSE

Phillies: The fourth highest scoring team in the regular season (820 runs), the Phils also hit 224 home runs, tied for second overall with the Rangers.

The Phils boast four 30-homer bats in Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley. Howard and Ibanez are traditional slugger types whereas Werth (20 steals) and Utley (23 steals) bring a 20/20 game to the party. The Phillies also boast two solid table setters in Jimmy Rollins (100 runs, 31 steals) and Shane Victorino (102 runs, 25 steals). There is no finer group of six offensive weapons in the game in one lineup.

Yankees: The highest scoring team in the regular season (915), the Yankees also led baseball with 244 home runs.

Like the Phillies, the Yankees boast a powerful lineup with two 30-100 guys in Mart Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Nick Swisher also went deep 29 times with 82 RBI while Hideki Matsui (28-90), Robinson Cano (25-85),Johnny Damon (24-82) and Jorge Posada (22-81) are all also members of the 20-HR, 80-RBI club. And to think, I didn’t even mention their most important player yet in Derek Jeter.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees
Both of these teams can bash, and both yards are clearly made for offensive explosions. Given the depth of both lineups this is almost a toss up, but I’ll go with the Yankees who figure to have an advantage when using the DH in the Yankees’ home park for up to four games.

PITCHING

Phillies: Finished eighth in ERA (4.16), 8th in WHIP (1.3520) and tied for 12th in K (1,153) during the regular season.

Cliff Lee is amazing, and Brad Lidge has apparently figured things out at the back end of games. Pedro Martinez has also dialed back the calendar some seven or eight years. Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ can start or relieve at this point, but the key to this unit is twofold. (1) Can Cole Hamels recapture last year’s success? (2) Will that bullpen be able to get leads from the starters into the hands of Mr. Lidge, and will he be able to convert if they do?

Yankees: Finished 12th in ERA (4.26), 7th in WHIP (1.3517) and 4th in K (1,260) during the regular season.

The Yankees didn’t give CC Sabathia the keys to Fort Knox to waste away on the bench, so it looks like he might be asked to go in Games 1, 4 and 7. Andy Pettitte continues to come through in big games, and A.J. Burnett might be erratic, but the man has no-hit stuff every time he takes the mound. There are no concerns here about the bullpen as Mariano Rivera is the all-time playoff reliever, and with Joba Chamberlain on hand to help Phil Hughes to get the ball to Mariano, things are looking pretty good.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees
The bullpen will likely be the difference here, and as long as the Yanks can get Hughes back on track, they have the advantage.

BENCH

Phillies: There is little depth here for the Phillies who were lucky enough to have pretty much every offensive weapon suit up for at least 130 games during the regular season. Matt Stairs will likely be called on to try and hit a ball to the moon, and Greg Dobbs and Ben Francisco are also on hand for some added depth.

Yankees: When the game moves to Philadelphia, the Yankees will have a huge advantage with Hideki Matsui, an everyday slugger, able to pinch hit at a moments notice. That gives them the advantage on the road, and at home they will also be in the same position rolling Matsui as DH with the Phillies likely using someone like Dobbs, Stairs or Francisco. That’s not a favorable matchup.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees

INTANGIBLES

Phillies: 5th in fielding percentage (.987).
Manager Charlie Manuel has a World Series Championship under his belt from last season, but the guy just scares the hell out of me with the use of his pitching staff.

Yankees: 16th in field percentage (.985).
Manager Joe Girardi will look to emulate his former manager, Joe Torre, and return the Yankees to the realm of World Champions.

ADVANTAGE: Yankees

RAY’s PICK: Yankees in Six
I almost want to puke. In fact, I might if I was picking the Dodgers here. Still, the Yankees are my second most hated club, cue the vomit bags, and given that their player’s salary is something like the GNP of a few countries in the world, it’s hard to like the Evil Empire. However, it looks like they will win their first World Series since 2000 and their 27th overall championship.

By Ray Flowers

The Ideal First Round

We are still months away from the 2010 major league season, shoot, we aren’t even to the World Series yet, but that doesn’t mean that I’m not knee deep in baseball data right now as we are beginning to put together out first 2010 Baseball Magazine (it should be out in time to stuff your holiday stocking). Given that, combined with our recent purchase of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship which uses 15 team leagues, I thought I would run through my ideal first round for 2010. It won’t be the last time I do this leading up to the actual draft weekend, but sitting here today this is how I see things playing out.

1- Hanley Ramirez
How is this for a three year average from a shortstop: .325-29-85-117-38. His steal total is dipping (51, 35 and 27), but the average has been over .330 two of the past three years and he knocked in 106 runs batting third this season.

2- Albert Pujols
I know, I know. How could he not be #1? At this point I’m putting him #2 because of his most recent elbow operation and the slight concern I have about that. You can read my thoughts on the matter at Is Perception Reality?

3- Alex Rodriguez
Showing, once again, what he can do when the stars align. If we add in the eight playoff games he has played this year he has produced a .293-35-111-88-15 line in just 132 games this season.

4- Ryan Braun
Strikes out too much without drawing walks (his 0.35 BB/K mark for his career is well below the 0.50 major league average), but he has managed to hit .308 in his three seasons. Doesn’t have the speed of Kemp (though he had 20 steals in ’09), but of the two this is the guy would could hit 40 homers with 120 RBI and a .330 batting average.

5- Matt Kemp
I don’t like the large K totals (153 and 139 the past two years), but how can I argue with a guy who in his second full season hit .297-26-101-97-34? 30/30 is the next step.

6- Miguel Cabrera
The best right handed power hitter in the AL who hasn’t been linked to performance enhancing drugs, Cabrera has hit at least .320 in four of five seasons while also knocked in at least 112 runs five times in six years.

7- Chase Utley
Shrugged off the hip surgery to produce spectacularly. He went 20/20 for the first time (31 homers, 23 steals), scored 100-runs for the fourth straight year and has now gone at least .280-22-93-93 in each of the past five seasons.

8- Ian Kinsler
How many players went 30/30 this past season? One, and he plays second base for the Rangers (he had 31 homers and 31 steals). Even though he hit only .253 he still scored 101 runs with 86 RBI.

9- Tim Lincecum
The best pitcher in the game. Period.

10- Ryan Howard
Wildly deficient in steals (10 career) and average (only once over .280 the past four years), but with 4-straight 45 homer, 135 RBI seasons who cares?

11- Jacoby Ellsbury
Major league steals leader (70) doesn’t have the power of Crawford, but he has more steal upside, has scored at least 94 runs each of the past two years, and upped his average .021 points in just his second full season (.301).

12- Carl Crawford
Even with a late season fade he still set a career best with 60 steals, his fifth 50+ steal season in seven years, while scoring 96 runs, hitting 15 bombs, and batting .305.

13- Mark Teixeira
I don’t think he takes the next step to outright greatness, but in that park, and with that lineup around him, he is as close as a guy can be to a completely lock to hit 30 homers with 100 RBI and a batting average of .280+ (6-straight years).

14- Roy Halladay
Yes Zack Greinke was better last season, but at the same time Halladay has been the most consistently excellent pitcher in the game the past four years. There is also the growing specter of Halladay being dealt, and that would likely help him in the “W” category much more than Greinke will be aided pitching for the Royals.

15- Mark Reynolds
Reynolds was the only man who hit 40 homers while knocking in 100 runs and stealing 20 bases. Reynolds set a major league record with 223 Ks, so I still worry about his ability to match his .260 mark from last season, and honestly, I would never take him this high, though some might even put him higher on the list so I added him, grudgingly, to the list.

By Ray Flowers