Back in the Saddle

For those of you that missed it, The Oracle spent three days in the hospital with a dastardly case of the flu. He’s still not even close to 100 percent, but he’s going to do his best to get back on it today. Let’s see how he does.

Tony Cingrani has shocked me with his success thus far (1.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.00 K//9, 7.00 K/BB). I’m still not sold, which I know sounds crazy given his success. However, he cannot keep up the K-rate. He cannot keep up the walk rate (2.00 per nine). He cannot continue to hold batters to a .188 average. He cannot continue to have a BABIP of .278 with a 24 percent line drive rate. He’s also still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time. Deal him at his apex before he pulls a Jose Fernandez (I dealt Cingrani for Chris Sale in one of my leagues – a steal if you ask me). By the way, Johnny Cueto will make his first minor league start Friday as he works his way back from a lat issue. He’s likely about two weeks away. As for Fernandez, I issued my warnings when he made the big league club. He’s 20 years old and entered the season without a single outing above High-A ball. What the heck were you expecting from him? Given those two facts, and those two alone, you should be really pleased with his five outings thus far that have led to a 8.63 K/9 mark and 1.29 WHIP. I know you aren’t but that’s your fault for having too high of expectations.

Carl Crawford will sit out Wednesday and Thursday (a day off) to nurse his tender hamstring. After a whopper of a start his production has slowed drastically, but his slash line is still elite. Seriously. Take a look: .308/.388/.516. He has a better average than Carlos Gonzalez. He has a better OBP than Paul Goldschmidt (.387). He has a better SLG than Buster Posey (.488). See what I mean?

Starling Marte has been killing it. Just look at his .327 average and .395 OBP. However, there is a real downside. The seven steals are fantastic, as is the batting average, but here comes the rug being pulled out. (1) He’s on pace for less than 15 homers. OK, you can live with that given the rest of his performance. (2) He’s on pace for about 60 RBIs. OK, you can also live with that given his overall work. (3) He’s taken seven walks in 26 games. While that is better than his pace last year of eight walks in 47 games, it’s still awful. (4) His strikeout rate has dipped from 27.5 percent last year to 22 percent this season, but neither number is great. When combined with his terribly low walk rate his 0.27 BB/K ratio this season is still dreadful (the big league average is about 0.45). The highest batting average last season by any player in baseball with a mark of 0.27 or less was .293 by Alcides Escobar. I doubt Marte will hit even that well given the stage of development he is currently at (also note that Escobar hit .254 in 2012, tis the nature of players who show no patience and strike zone judgement).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Hyun-Jin Ryu had 12 punchouts Tuesday night giving him 10.99 K/9 this season. NO ONE, not a single person in baseball, thought he was going to do that. I’m going to agree with everyone and side with this being a random run of greatness. I’m still thinking that there will be a pullback in the K-department. Been impressed by his efforts this season no doubt, but over his head is he (that was Yoda speak for those of you who missed it).

Way too early to draw any conclusions, but Mike Trout is hitting .261 with a .766 OPS. He’s on pace for about 12 homers, 95 RBIs, 90 runs and 25 steals. Since September 1st of last season he’s hit .276 with a .368 OBP and .467 SLG over the course of 56 games. He’s also hit only seven homers while stealing 11 bases.

Chien-Ming Wang will stay with the Yankees organization. Does anyone care? Maybe the Yankees do, but the last time he pitched 100 innings in the big leagues was 2007.

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag Mania

Another day, another couple of emails to answer. Hey, you wouldn’t expect anything different from me would you? You all know that I’m here for all of you (how sweet huh?), and I happily answer all the questions I receive, even if it takes me a day or two. Let’s get to it before you start hearing violin’s playing.

I’ve been offered Paul Konerko and Cole Hamels for Tommy Hanson in a 3 man keeper league. I’m currently in 1st place in my division and I have Garret Jones as my current 1st baseman. The balance of my pitching staff is – Greinke, Billingsley, Jimenez, Garza, Brett Anderson, and Slowey (DL).

Here is the balance of my roster: Sandoval, Phillips, G. Jones, Rollins, Youkilis, Markakis, Pence, Hart, Ibanez, N. Cruz, R. Gutierrez, McCutchen, Prado
– Alan

The first thing to keep in mind here is that you can only keep a certain amount of players in any keeper league. Having young talent is obviously a major goal in such a set up, but if you can only protect a handful of guys from year-to-year it doesn’t make any sense to compile a roster of 10 first or second year players unless they can help you win today.

In this case, we have just such a situation. Based upon the statement given, each team can only protect three players. Therefore, trades should be made much more for today, versus next season, in many cases. Someone might want to keep Tommy Hanson in such a league, but honestly, that’s way more of a risk than I would consider. Why? Let’s assume this is a 12-team mixed league. Heck, let’s assume this is a 15-team mixed league. If each team can protect only three guys from year-to-year that means that in order to protect Hanson for next season you would need to view him as one of the top-45 players in the game. I’m certainly not there. Heck, you already have Zack Greinke and Chad Billingsley to choose from if you want to protect a pitcher for 2010, and I would without question protect both of them over Hanson.

Would I therefore accept the deal? You bet I would – though realize you will have to make a secondary move in order to create space no your roster for the two men you will be receiving. Hamels is in line for a strong second half if you ask me, especially when you consider that he has a .344 BABIP mark, far too high, especially for a man who owns a superb 4.74 K/BB mark. And don’t overlook the bounce back season of Konerko (.296-18-64) who is hitting .322 with five homers and 15 RBI in his last 15 games.

Who would you recommend out of the following pitcher available (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV), keeper league:

Brett Anderson
Jonathan Sanchez
Jeff Niemann
Manny Parra
C.J. Wilson

My pitching staff looks like this: Johan Santana, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Clay Buchholz, Scott Baker, Jorge De La Rosa, Phil Hughes, J.P. Howell, DL – Lindstrom, DL – Wang, DL – Maine

Should I just wait for Lindstrom and Wang to come off the DL and not use up the waiver move (only have 3 left for the year)?
– Matthew, Toronto

Not knowing how many players can be kept, I’m at a bit of a loss here to recommend a guy.

If you are looking to add a guy to help right now, Jeff Niemann has been pretty good of late with a victory in each of his last five decisions as his ERA has fallen from 4.53 on May 23rd to 3.61.

Jonathan Sanchez has thrown consecutive “quality starts” including that no-hitter, but it’s tough to recommend a guy who has walked 47 batters in 84.2 innings.

Brett Anderson has allowed just one run in his last four appearances totaling 26.1 innings to drop his ERA to 4.25. Still, the youngster needs to prove he can handle the grind of a full season.

Manny Parra has looked rejuvenated since he returned to the Brewers allowing only one run over 13 innings while walking only four men.

C.J. Wilson continues to get save chances as Frank Francisco just cannot stay on the field. He owns a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.17 K/BB mark, merely average for a late inning reliever.

Chien-Ming Wang, I’m not ready to give up on him yet, but at the same time he has been so awful I would just leave him on the DL until he proved worthy of activation.

Matt Lindstrom continues to progress from his elbow issues and hopes to be back within two weeks, max. Still, I want to see him prove his worth as well before I activate him.

You have two choices Matt. You can grab Wilson since you currently have only one closer on your roster. However, that might indicate that you have decided to “punt” saves in which case there is little reason to add Wilson, especially since he isn’t likely to hold on to the job the rest of the way (Francisco is getting over a bout of pneumonia). Therefore I would recommend picking up Jeff Niemann. He clearly doesn’t have an upside remotely approaching the others, but I see Anderson, Sanchez and Parra as having more downside than the man from the Rays.

And finally —

Kudos to Mark Buehrle who threw just the 18th perfect game in baseball history today (including Don Larson’s outing in the 1956 World Series). Buehrle should name his next kid after DeWayne Wise who caught what would have been a home run as he crashed into the wall in the bottom of the ninth inning (he was a defensive replacement in the ninth by the way). What a game. Take that retirement talk.

By Ray Flowers