Player Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

Jason Collette of Rotowire.com and Cory Schwartz of MLB.com and I all have an unhealthy love for Edwin Encarnacion (fittingly, Cory outbid me for Encarnacion last year in Tout Wars – I was the runner up bidder. Cory, by the way, was sitting immediately to my left at the draft while Jason was sitting immediately to my right recording the results, real time, for the internet audience). For years the three of us pushed people to draft EE, and for years we looked only mildly intelligent. However, with one fell swoop EE made us all look like geniuses with not only his best season but one of the better all-around seasons by a third baseman in the 21st century. What can Edwin do for an encore, and will Jason, Cory and myself be pushing him as hard in 2013 as we have the past few years?

Looking just at the results, EE had a HOF type season for a third sacker as he hit .280 with 42 homers, 110 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 13 steals. In the history of baseball there have been six seasons of .280-40-110-90-10 at the third base position (Alex Rodriguez did it twice, then single season efforts from Ken Caminiti, Dick Allen, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and EE). Honestly there have only been five such seasons by full time third sackers as EE appeared in only one game at third base in 2012 (he was eligible at the position in fantasy after appearing in 36 games at the hot corner in 2012). So while putting him in that group is sort of cheating, it doesn’t take away from a spectacular season for the fantasy game in 2012. Let’s look at his skill set and see where we should set expectations for a guy who, in his 8th season, exploded onto the scene.

EE is never going to be a batting average booster. His .280 batting average in 2012 was the second best mark of his career, he hit .289 in 2007, and only once from 2008-11 did he hit even .270. Why? Pretty simple really. He’s just not a great hitter – the 2006 season was the last time he posted a line drive rate of 20 percent, and his career BABIP is .280. Neither of those two numbers is anything close to being something to be proud of. On the plus side EE usually doesn’t give away too many at-bats, he’s only struck out 100 times once and his K-rate has been under 16.5 percent the past three years (a solid number in today’s game). Last season was the first time that he really took to the walk as his 13 percent walk rate was well above his nine percent mark entering the year. If he continues along those lines his outlook would remain strong (his 0.89 BB/K ratio from 2012 dwarfs his previous career best of 0.60).

Moving on from the average, what about the power output? Always a fly ball hitter, one of the other reasons his average has never risen to the level of excitement, EE owns a 45 percent career fly ball rate (about 10 percent above league average). In ’12 Edwin had a 49.5 percent fly ball rate, the third highest mark of his career, and that certainly played a part in his homer explosion. There are two other major factors. The most obvious being an 18.7 HR/F ratio, fifty percent better than his 12 percent career mark entering last season. So Encarnacion hit more fly balls than normal and those fly balls reached the seats more often than at any previous time in his career. Add in the fact that he appeared in 151 games, a career best and his first season over 140 games since 2008, and you have another pertinent reason for his growth – he was on the field more than ever before (his total of 644 plate appearances was 62 more than ever before). That certainly helps one to produce in the counting categories.

Let’s keep things simple here. For seven seasons EE teased. In year eight he became a superstar. What that means is that for 87.5 percent of his big league career he has been solid, and 12.5 percent of the time he has been elite. Teammate Jose Bautista followed a similar path and backed up his breakout season with another impressive campaign (he was on his way to a second strong follow up before injuries limited him to just 92 games in 2012). Will Edwin be able to follow that same path? Remember the following before you go all in with EE in ’13.

He had never hit 27 homers before going for 42 last year.
He had never driven in 80 runs before going for 110 last year.
He had never scored 80 runs before going for 93 last year.
He had never stolen more than eight bases before going for 13 last year. He stole a grand total of 12 bases in the previous four seasons (2008-11).

Heading into the 2013 fantasy campaign Edwin Encarnacion’s value is limited off the hop – the only position he will qualify for is first base. That really hurts his value. Add in the fact that he took such a substantial step forward in year eight that it must at least be considered that 2012 will go down as a career best effort. The pendulum hasn’t swung completely, I’m not going to suggest avoiding Edwin after pleading for people to draft him for five years, but I will exercise a word of caution with Edwin. I find it hard to believe he will be able to replicate his 2012 numbers. If you draft him hoping for 80 percent of last year’s production I’d be OK with that, but you will almost certainly have to draft him earlier than that projection would lead you to considering the hype he will likely draw at the draft table.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Billy Butler: Guess who loves to see the mustached one, Carl Pavano, toeing the rubber? This guy. Butler has hit .429 with a 1.124 OPS against the Twins’ righty in his career, and we’re talking 21 hits in 49 at-bats making those numbers pretty imposing. Toss in two homers and nine RBI and you should be giddy with Butler in your lineup.

Chipper Jones: Around an around the wheel spins, and where it stops no one knows. Will it stop on Chipper being IN or OUT of the lineup Friday? Who knows as this situation is about as dicey as your local weather forecaster who, inevitably, somehow ends up being off by 15 degrees when they tell you what the temperature will be. If Chipper plays he has a great matchup with 13 hits in 37 at-bats, a .351 average, with two homers and six RBI against A.J. Burnett.

Hunter Pence: Paul Maholm often posses little difficulty for the elite hitters in the game, so it’s hardly a surprise that a guy like Pence has had success against the Cubs hurler. In 44 career at-bats Pence has hit .318 with two bombs and nine RBI spread out over 44 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

John Danks: Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting a pitcher against the Red Sox, but the team is a mess right now. No Ellsbury or Crawford, Ross has a knee issue, they’ve got the off the field turmoil, all of that would seem to make Danks a passable play. Current Sox batters have a .186 batting average against Danks, not to mention that he has a 2.82 ERA over his last 30 innings against the Red Sox.

Tommy Hanson: He’s made four starts this season an only once has he allowed more than two runs. He’s also won two of his last three decisions, and on the year he has 23 Ks in 24 innings pitched. When you toss in the gravy on top of that turkey dinner, the competition, it’s a meal you’ll want to saddle up to the table to eat. His opponent Friday is the Pirates, a team hitting .221 with 41 runs scored, 18 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.

Corey Luebke: He’s starting against the Giants, and in general, that’s usually a good thing for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two starts, and that he’s allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts to drop his ERA to 2.52 and now we’re cooking with gas. You might pause to start him when you realize the game is being played in San Francisco, but that’s only because you haven’t looked at the numbers. In his career at home he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, impressive numbers to be sure, but no match for his work on the road (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Orlando Hudson: Yes he is hitting .206, and he is also facing Tim Lincecum Saturday. So why in the world is he listed here as a potential play? Surprisingly, O-Dog has 10 hits in 27 at-bats against The Freak, a .370 average. Hey, if you really think that Lincecum is that awful then you don’t have a problem starting Hudson, do you?

Grady Sizemore: He is hitting .550 with three homers in 20 at-bats against Dan Haren… oh, sorry.

Paul Konerko: The White Sox first sacker, who just blasted his 400th career homer, has enjoyed a ton of success against Jon Lester who also happens to be struggling to find any consistency this year on the hill. That make Konerko, who is hitting .389 with three homers and six RBI against Lester (18 at-bats) a solid play.

Danny Valencia: Not a name you probably figured you would be reading about, but when a guy has nine hits in 18 at-bats against someone (Bruce Chen) people tend to take notice. He hasn’t taken the lefty deep but he does have five RBI and just one punchout in their matchups.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Colby Lewis: Not only is Lewis 3-0 against the Rays with 15 Ks in 17.1 innings in his career, he’s off to a blazing start this year with a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 Ks in 26.2 innings. He’s also not beating himself with only one free pass issued proving that he’s about as locked in as any hurler in the game right now.

Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays hurler has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the year, but only 12 strikeouts through four starts causing some people to be a bit nervous. He should be able to turn that worry on its ear given that he faces a Mariners club that he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13 innings against. He’s 2-0 against the Mariners while posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez: This righty has made five starts against the D’backs to the tune of a 3-1 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 31 Ks in 34 innings. He’s allowed only two runs in each of his three starts this year. Seems like a recipe for success, does it not?

CONTEST

Are you ready to test your fantasy baseball acumen against one of the best in the business? Well you may not ever get the chance to do that, but I can guarantee that you will have your chance to take on Ray Flowers, me, in the BaseballGuys / DailyJoust $250 Free Roll this Friday, April 27th.

There’s still time to sign up. Click on the link to participate, for Free, to win $ and to get bragging rights if you can beat me.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Frown – Upside Down

How fun is fantasy baseball? Instead of bemoaning the struggles of certain players, why don’t we turn that frown upside down and see if there might be some players who have failed to live up to expectations to this point of the season that might be able to lend a boost to our fantasy squad moving forward. That’s a noble goal is it not? I’ll also talk about a former Cy Young winner who may have finally turned the corner, a reliever you’ve never probably heard of who leads baseball in wins, and a former fantasy superstar who is slowing improving physically in his attempt to come back from a mysterious knee injury.

Daniel Bard picked up his first win of the season Monday night, while pitching out of the bullpen, but he is still currently scheduled to make his start on Friday against the White Sox. The Red Sox though may have no other choice than to slot Bard in as their 9th inning arm (even though Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox manager, said that moving Bard back to the pen full time “doesn’t look like a great temptation.”). Bard has 13 Ks in 12.1 innings this season, but he’s also 1-2 with nine walks allowed an a 1.70 WHIP. Even if he had been successful as a starter, the Sox would still have to consider him for the 9th inning since they just can’t afford to give away games late. Alfredo Aceves, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Justin Thomas… boy do the Sox miss Andrew Bailey. If Bard is on waivers he’s worth adding in the hope that he’ll be asked to work the 9th greatly improving his fantasy value – even though the Red Sox are currently saying that isn’t going to happen.

Erik Bedard is 0-4 though he does have a 2.62 ERA after allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. Wins may be tough to come by for the lefty in Pittsburgh, but I’ll continue to say it – when healthy he can be a mixed league option worthy of pretty much being an every game starter.

Chipper Jones didn’t start again on Monday. He continues to be a daily disaster, you never know when he’s going to be playing, but he also continues to be might successful when on the field. No only is he hitting .276 with two homers and eight RBI in nine games, but he has a .870 OPS. That’s a better number than guys like Miguel Cabrera (.857), Adrian Beltre (.826), Alex Rodriguez (.800) and Jose Bautista (.771).

Tim Lincecum was much better in his fourth start of the season Monday (5 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks, 5 BBs). I got a chance to watch nearly every pitch he tossed, an I liked what I saw. His pitches were darting all over the strike zone, but he wasn’t locked in as he missed the target on many of the pitches. Still, this was an improvement over the way that he opened up the season, so you have to be feeling pretty good if you didn’t panic and decided to hold on to him (or if you dealt to add him).

Kyle Lohse is up to 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA. I’m still not buying it. No way he continues to hold batters to a .170 batting average, and as impressive as his control was last year (2.01 BB per nine), the man isn’t going to continue to walk one batter every 13 innings. Now is the perfect time to sell high. If you don’t, just make sure you remember me when his performance tanks in relation to his current levels.

Vodka and Red Bull – nectar from the gods? Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm would agree.

Vulture wins anyone? Robbie Ross has worked five games covering 5.1 innings. All he’s done is rack up three wins. Do you even know what team he is on? Try the Rangers. This is just another example of why it is virtually impossible to predict wins in the fantasy game – Robbie Fricken’ Ross is tied for the major league lead with three victories.

Chase Utley (knee) did some things Monday, and that included fielding grounders. Though he is said to be feeling stronger and making progress, he also admitted that while BP cause him no discomfort that fielding those grounders was still bothering him. There is no timetable in this continually vexing situation that the Phillies have not been able to clarify in the least (apparently Utley doesn’t want his medical information shared, which is his right of course, but it sure plays havoc with what reasonable expectations should be this year). There’s been some discussion of Utley possibly playing some first base when he comes back, though Jim Thome and Ryan Howard obviously can’t play anywhere else on the diamond. I’ll bet that Utley’s bat still has some juice left in it, but it’s growing harder and harder to hold on to him in 12 team mixed leagues unless you have a DL spot.

Miguel Bautista started Game 1 of the Mets/Giants doubleheader Monday. You remember back in 2005 when, a year after going 10-13 with a 4.85 ERA, that the Blue Jays asked Bautista to close leading to 31 saves? Since then he has four saves — in six years.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: Friday he faces Ervin Santana. Jeter is a rather amazing 17-for-38 against the righty with three homers (that’s good for a .447 average). Teammate Robinson Cano is hitting .344 with four homers in 32 at-bats against Santana.

Shin-Soo Choo: Friday he faces Luke Hochevar who he simply hammers into the Dark Ages. Choo has 13 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .565 average. In addition to all the hits, he’s doing something with them as he has four doubles, three homers and 10 RBI. Impressive.

Chipper Jones: Friday he faces Randy Wolf who he beats around like a pinata. In 53 career at-bats Jones has four bombs and 10 RBI. He’s also hitting .377 with a 1.228 OPS. It’s a great match up for Chipper. However, it seems to be an awful match up for his teammate Michael Bourn as the speedster has all of one hit in 17 at-bats against Wolf including seven punchouts.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

R.A. Dickey: Friday he faces the Phillies, a team he has had a lot of success against. In six career starts covering 38 innings, R.A. has a 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB ratio against the Fightin’ Phils.

Cliff Lee: Friday he faces the Mets. It’s only 21 innings, but the guy has a 0.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.40 K/BB ratio against the Metropolitans. He’s pretty much always money though regardless of the opposition.

Clayton Richard: Friday he faces the Dodgers, a team he has thoroughly dominated with a 2.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 45.1 innings. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, but you can’t argue with the results.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carlos Lee: Faces the often wild and tempestuous Carlos Zambrano. Lee not only has a 1.098 OPS in 67 career at-bats against Big Z, he’s also had more walks than strikeouts (eight to seven), while hitting .358 with five homers and 15 RBI.

Jhonny Peralta: Faces Gavin Floyd whom he has 10 hits in 31 at-bats against (.323). He’s also gone deep two times leading to a seven RBI. Other Tigers with success against Floyd include Ryan Raburn (.375 in 32 at-bats), though he is really struggling on the young season (.105 through five games).

Placido Polanco: Faces Jonathon Niese who he has hit .429 against in 21 at-bats. Polanco has hit four doubles helping him to a .619 SLG, and he’s driving in six runs against he Mets’ lefty.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Joe Wieland: Faces the Dodgers starting in place of the injured Dustin Mosley. The game will be played in Los Angeles, a park that has played as the 14th lowest scoring ball yard in the National League the last three years according to Park Indices (nine percent below the league average). The Dodgers as a team haven’t exactly been impressive on the early year either hitting .204 with a .306 OBP and a mere .363 SLG.

Carlos Zambrano: Faces the Astros on Saturday. Though I noted how Carlos Lee kills Zambrano, non one else on the Astros has done much of anything against him. In addition, the guy has flat out owned the ‘Stros in his career. Check out the numbers: 16-8, 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with 186 Ks in 218 innings. Basically he’s been what Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 178 Ks in 225 IP) was last season when he’s faced the Astros.

Barry Zito: Faces the Pirates in San Francisco. The Pirates are currently the worst hitting team in baseball as they are batting .199 with a .241 OBP, 293 SLG and 11 runs scored in six games. Zito is also coming off his first shutout since 2003 and he has a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates. Are you feeling lucky punk (thanks for that one Dirty Hairy)?

CONTESTS

Finally, here are two of the main contests you might be interested in (there are many other options to sign up for at Daily Joust, so don’t think you are limited to just this duo).

The $500 King Richard Survivor Tourney is on Fridays. The tournament includes 32 participants on Day 1. Then it’s paired down to 16 on Day 2, eight on Day 3 etc. Basically, the players in the top half each day move on to the next day. The winner end ups with $195, on just a $20 entry fee, and the winner is also added into the MLB Super Joust III tournament in September! Super Joust II is April 18th and has $10,000 in prizes up for grabs. If that wasn’t enough of a reason to get excited, maybe the two tickets that the winner gets to the NBA Finals will help get your blood pumping.

MLB 50/50 Survivor Tournament. A $20 entry fee gets you entered in the tournament (all other rounds free). There are five rounds, top half per round qualify for next round. Payouts by round are $5/15/25/50/100 with the final round winner getting one of the spots in the $10,000 NBA Super Joust tournament on April 18 with a shot at those two NBA Finals tickets.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

Around the Horn: June 8, 2011

(1) Jake Peavy to DL with groin issue.

(2) Adam Dunn to get a few days off as did Alex Rios in an attempt to wake both up.

(3) Knees bothering Jimmy Rollins and Mark Teixeira.

(4) Carl Pavano pitching well of late, really.

(5) Justin Masterson has no wins in eight starts despite pitching well.

(5) Jason Heyward called out by Chipper Jones.

By Ray Flowers

Spring Training – Injuries

Photo by Keith Allison

Things are finally starting to heat up. Games are underway, baseball fever is starting to percolate once again meaning there are plenty of topics to discuss as MLB gets ready for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll focus on one aspect of the spring talk by breaking down the situation of a few of the players who have been in the news for the wrong reason – they’re dealing with some type of injury concern.

Shin-Soo Choo is dealing with a hyper extended elbow. Everyone is saying the right things, and the big key is that this does not appear to be related to previous Tommy John surgery. Keep an eye on the situation, but it looks like Choo should be good to go when it counts in his attempt to post a third straight 20/20 season with a .300 average (Choo and Hanley Ramirez are the only two players who have hit all three of those levels the last two years).

Adrian Gonzalez is swinging the bat though we’re talking about him hitting balls off a tee and in soft toss, and we are talking about a max of 60 swings a day. I take that many cuts a day when I’m stretching to lift weights in my garage. I expect Gonzalez to be fully healthy by the start of the year, but does that mean we should expect him to be operating at 100 percent? I know he is an elite talent, but we are just about a month away from regular season games and he hasn’t even come close to taking batting practice. Doesn’t that make you nervous? Think of the case of Chipper Jones. He’s coming back from knee surgery and everyone is freaked out that his career is over (granted there is a massive difference with the health record of each, and Chipper is about 29 years older, but still). I hate to break this to you all, but Chipper is way ahead of A-Gone right now since he’s fielding, sliding, and even DH’ing on Monday. Is perception reality?

I had a nice, lazy weekend. It’s amazing what fun doing nothing can be if you actually have the time to do nothing. After years of working 65+ hours every week I might actually like this having a normal work day type of thing. At the same time, I might go bored out of my mind too, so time will tell.

It looks like the Pirates are planning on using Andrew McCutchen in the third hole this season, his rightful place given that he is by far and away the best hitter wearing a Pirates’ uniform. In each of the last two years he has hit .286 with a .365 meaning only some slight improvement will take his game to the elite level. If there was one guy who hasn’t hit 20 homers with 30 steals but could this season it’s McCutchen. I don’t think the move to third in the order will cut down on him swiping a bag, and it should help to boost his RBI total substantially.

Mike Stanton tweaked his right quad on Sunday, and everyone started panicking. It doesn’t appear that he blew the leg out or anything, but the team will obviously take a measured approach with their future power hitting star (reports suggest that he could be out of game action for two weeks). Stanton only appeared in 100 games last season, but if you give him 150 games played at last years pace you’d end up with 33 homers, 89 RBI and 184 strike outs. Where have I see that before… oh yeah, Adam Dunn.

The Beastie Boys really have annoying voices don’t they? Still they have some dope beats, yes I just wrote “dope beats,” and I still enjoy their music. I can also remember the horn tweeters in my pick-up truck blasting Paul Revere back in the day.

Brandon Webb might be showing all kinds of positive signs but let’s slow down the plans for a ticker tape parade. He’s tossed only four innings the past two years, and shoulder woes are very tough to recovery from. Plus, just because throwing long toss and tossing the pill off flat ground is going well, that doesn’t mean you can pencil him in for 180 quality innings this year. He might end up being a solid fifth starter type in mixed leagues, but there is no way I’m drafting him expecting that to become reality.

I know this is a year old, but I still love my artwork in the video so I’m going to re-post it for all of you. It’s a brief history of who Ray Flowers is, and what his goals are in the fantasy sports world, and it’s called The Illustrated Ray Flowers.

Joel Zumaya tossed his first inning of the spring and reported no problems with his body. When healthy, and he never is, there isn’t a more fearsome pitcher in baseball which begs the question – is it possible that Zumaya actually throws too hard for his body? By that I mean does he generate such torque and power that his body literally can’t stand the stress? It’s a fair question for a man who has thrown his average fastball at 98.5 mph in his career. Still, ever time he comes back from injury the heat is always there. In 2009 he tossed only 31 innings but his heater was 99.3 mph, the same speed it was last year when he threw 38.1 innings. You can only take a shot on him late in AL-only drafts, but if he could ever stay healthy — well, just look at his rookie season for proof of what he could do (1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.48 K/9). Amazingly, he hasn’t thrown even 40-innings in any of the last four years.

Finally, my thoughts go out to the family and friends of Duke Snider who passed away at 84 years old. For more on the “The Duke of Flatbush” give Ben Walker’s piece a read.

By Ray Flowers

Friday Follies

Johnny Cueto was given a seven game suspension for his Bruce Lee like efforts to impale the Cardinals with his Feet of Fury (Bruce Lee was in a movie entitled Fist of Fury). Oh, and in case you have no idea what I’m talking about, Cueto tried to kick about half of the Cardinals team when the Cards and Reds fought recently. Cueto took his suspension like a man, after acting like a child, and he’ll serve the suspension without an appeal.

Chipper Jones will have knee surgery and if his rehab goes well he plans on trying to play next year. I’ll try to rehab this weekend with copious amounts of alcohol so that I can return to work on Sunday night for the radio show I co-host with Kyle Elfrink from 8-12 PM EST called the Fanball Fantasy Recap. By the way, the show is on XM 147 and Sirius 211, and you can read all about it in I’m a Star.

Joe Mauer leads baseball with a .435 batting average the past 30 days (Chris Johnson leads the NL at .432). As pointed out to me today by Kyle Elfrink, Mauer hasn’t a single homer this season at home in 162 at-bats. Mauer’s also gone deep just seven times on the year. Where are those people that called me an utter buffoon when I said before the season started that there was not a scintilla of a chance that Mauer would go deep 30 times this season after hitting 28 big flies last year? Crickets? If we remove those 28 bombs, here is what his homer totals look like since his rookie season: 9, 13, 7, 9 and 7 this year.

Felix Pie is hitting .340 the past two weeks. At the same time he has a .333 OBP as he hasn’t walked a single time in that time. I don’t know if that’s real progress or not (things like sacrifice bunts and sac hits count as plate appearances and will therefore lower a players OBP even if the players batting average is not moved by the outs generated).

Dan Uggla may have “only” 26 hits in his last 25 games (he’s hitting .283 in that time), but he has made those hits count as he has gone deep 10 times, has knocked in 20 runs and has scored 24 times. It’s been said before but it bears repeating: Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball with 4-straight years of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored. All he need is one more homer, 16 more RBI and four more runs scored to run that streak to 5-straight seasons.

Are you following me on Twitter yet at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account? If your not, and yes I’m biased, your missing out on some of the best baseball knowledge you could ever hope to find. Here are some of my favorites from today.

Casey McGehee has 73 RBI, one more than Evan Longoria.

Casey McGehee has 18 homers, one more than David Wright.

David Ortiz has seven 25 HR seasons for the Red Sox. 2nd most – tied with J. Rice – behind T. Williams (14).

Orioles considering going to a 6-man rotation to get a look at guys like Tillman and Britton.

Here comes the Panda. Pablo Sandoval in August: .349 with an .899 OPS for the SFGiants.

Sign up if you are on Twitter, you wont be disappointed. If you are you can take it up with management (which just so happens to be me).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 12, 2010

(1) Pat Burrell on fire for Giants.

(2) Jose Bautista is on FIRE.

(3) Starlin Castro pushes average up to 320.

(4) Casey McGehee on fire in August.

(5) Injured pitchers – Andy Pettitte, Kevin Slowey.

(6) Shane Victorino back – implications to Phillies?

(7) Chipper Jones career could be over.

By Ray Flowers