All Good Things Come to an End

Dallas Braden threw a perfect game a while ago – you heard about that right? On Thursday he pitched a strong game allowing one run over six innings, but he had to be removed after 83 pitches because of some concern over his forearm, and he was awarded a no-decision when the bullpen blew the game. Braden hasn’t won a game in seven starts since his perfect game on May 9th.

Adam Dunn has at least two hits in 11 of his last 21 games, and now he is batting .288. Dunn has never hit higher than .267 in a season, and owns a .251 career mark, so you know the average is going to regress moving forward, but he will continue to draw walks and blast balls into the seats. What is that saying again? Oh yeah, chicks dig the long ball.

It might officially be time to jump off the John Ely train. He was tattooed for seven runs in 4.2 innings on Thursday by the Reds. That’s 3-straight starts of at least four earned runs allowed (none lasting more than five innings), and in those three outings his ERA is 9.20.

Travis Hafner will not play for 9-straight games in interleague play because he simply cannot play defense with his bum shoulder. Talk about a way to screw up a guys swing. Reason number 8,729 why interleague play is a bad idea. Reason number 8,730? A team like the Rockies has to use a guy like Chris Iannetta at the spot when he is hitting .179.

Speaking of that Rockies game, Ubaldo Jimenez is flat out filthy. He tossed another eight innings of 1-run ball on Thursday to lower his ERA slightly to 1.15. Dude is scary good right now.

Who doesn’t wish they were me? I might see Rick Springfield in concert tomorrow night. I might take my VHS camera to record the event so I can play it on my huge 26 inch television.

Chipper Jones might retire at the end of the 2010 season. (1) Big shock. How can anyone be surprised when he’s hitting .234 with an OPS that doesn’t even hit .750? (2) Why is it such a big story that he might hang them up? Until he announces that he is retiring everyone should let it go.

Sorry Mike Lowell. It seems like you may never end up being traded. The Red Sox can’t seem to find a fit with either the Twins or the Rangers as both clubs aren’t willing to give up a player of quality unless the Red Sox shoulder a lot of the money Lowell is owed.

Randy Wells allowed just two runs to the A’s over seven innings on Thursday. I’m no pitch Nazi, in fact I have no idea why pitchers today, with all our medical and training advances, can’t throw more frequently than in the past, but letting a guy throw 130 pitches in a game, which the Cubs did today with Wells, has proven to be rife with danger. Look for him to breakdown or in the least to see his production regress in his next few starts.

And finally, Darin Erstad has retired. One of my favorite players because of his all-out, never quit attitude, Erstad’s body betrayed because he flung it around with such reckless abandon. He ends his career with 1,697 hits and a .282 career average, but he will always have a place in the hearts of those that played fantasy baseball back in 2000. That year Erstad made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and a Silver Slugger award on his way to an 8th place finish in the AL MVP race. Erstad lead the league in at-bats (676) and plate appearances (747), as he rapped out a league leading 240 hits. All told he hit .355 with 25 homers, 100 RBI, 121 runs scored and 28 steals in one of the most complete fantasy season in recent memory as he produced one of only two seasons in the history of baseball of .355-25-100-120-25 (the other was by Larry Walker in 1997 when he hit .366 with 49 homers, 130 RBI, 143 runs and 33 steals). Via Con Dios my friend.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5^th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 1, 2010

(1) Alfonso Soriano to hit 6^th for Cubs.

(2) Troy Glaus says his shoulder is doing well.

(3) Josh Hamilton still dealing with sore shoulder.

(4) Miguel Cabrera quits drinking, ready to mash on field.

(5) Jose Reyes plays/runs with positive results for Mets.

(6) Bobby Jenks – what does 2010 hold in store? You can hear my thoughts in the video and augment that with my Breaking Down: Jenks article.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Third Base

Today I’m going to discuss the third base position as I continue to review my predictions for the top-10 at the position to see how they panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright

3. Aramis Ramirez

4. Evan Longoria

5. Chippers Jones

6. Garrett Atkins

7. Chone Figgins

8. Aubrey Huff

9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Alex Gordon

A-Rod rebounded from hip surgery and missing a month of action to record yet another 30-HR, 100-RBI season. That’s 12-straight years of that type of effort to tie the all-time record previously held by Jimmie Foxx. Yeah, he really slowed down didn’t he?

Wright hit .307, two points below his career mark, got on base at a .390 clip (career .389) and stole 27 bases. Yet his season was a failure. Why? A five year low in runs (88) and RBI (72) was distressing, but his simply atrocious total of 10 homers, after 26 or more the previous four seasons, rendered his ’09 after an abysmal outing for a player who wasn’t hurt.

Ramirez injured his shoulder which limited him to a mere 82 games played. Still, in half a season of games he hit .319 with a .905 OPS as he hit 15 long balls and 65 RBI putting his production slightly ahead of the levels we have come to expect.

Longoria had only 58 RBI over his last 105 games, but with 55 in his first 51 his overall mark of 113 was the best at the position. Evan also went deep 33 times, was one of only three third sackers to score 100 runs (100 exactly), and hit a solid .281 with a .889 OPS. Not a bad second season in the league wouldn’t you say?

Jones hit at least .324 from 2006-08, but at 37 years of age expecting a repeat was asking too much (he hit just .264). Why was he ranked fifth on my list then if I already had lower expectations for his ’09 outlook? Bottom line was that the third base position just wasn’t that deep heading into last season (and still isn’t in 2010).

Atkins was abysmal. Period. You can read all about the performance in my recent Five Questions piece.

Figgins had a terrific season and it will make him a lot of money this offseason. Chone led the position with 114 runs and 42 steals, while hitting .298 with a .395 OBP. By thaw way, he was second in the AL in runs scored (Dustin Pedroia crossed the plate 115 times).

Huff failed, miserably, to repeat his tremendous 2008 effort (.304-32-108) turning out a .241-15-85 line in a season split with the Orioles and Tigers. He didn’t play a single game at third instead seeing time exclusively at first base (93 games) and DH.

Youkilis was much more productive than I thought he would be. He failed to match his ’08 numbers (.312-29-115-91), but was pretty darn close across the board (.306-27-94-99).

Gordon was injured, had hip surgery, spent time at Triple-A and all-around was a huge disappointment. He hit only .232 with a .703 OPS in 49 games, and in the offseason the Royals brought in Josh Fields to possibly challenge Gordon for starts at third in the coming campaign.

By Ray Flowers

Wanted – Answers

I get email questions all week. It’s a great way for me to interact with you, my faithful readers, and today I thought I would answer a couple of the questions that have come to me the past few days.

What are your thoughts on Brett Anderson the rest of the year? Is he a better pickup than someone like Chad Gaudin?
– Joe, Chrisman, IL

Kyle Elfrink and I talked about Anderson on our Fantasy Buffet podcast on Monday, a show that can be heard live every day, Monday – Friday from 8-9 AM PST. If you want to give it a listen, simply tune in to the show at the link above. I’ll restate what I basically said at the time.

Anderson was great the other day, he took a perfect game into the seventh inning, and over his last three starts he hasn’t allowed a single run while giving up only seven hits in 21 innings. That leaves him with solid AL ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) though it would be nice to see a few more strikeouts (6.61 K/9 – it was over a batter per inning in his minor league career). He has done a good job throwing strikes, 2.36 BB/9, but he has needed to as he has allowed 1.23 home runs per nine innings. Still, I don’t see much that really stands out here. I’m also a bit concerned by the fact that he has permitted a line drive rate of just 15 percent yet he still has an ERA well above four, partly because of a very low left on base rate of 65.5 percent. If that line drive rate climbs toward the league average (20), his average BABIP (.297) could certainly rise, and if that occurs, without an increase in his LOB mark, well, that ERA could be closer to five than four by the end of the year. He is a solid AL-only option for sure, and one with mixed league relevance, though I certainly wouldn’t think we are looking at the next Mark Mulder based solely on a great 3-game run. Still, he is probably a better bet at this point than Chad Gaudin who despite the impressive K-totals (9.58 K/9), doesn’t throw enough strikes (4.95 BB/9), or flash near the consistency one looks for (in his last nine starts he has allowed two or fewer runs five times but five or more runs three times with a six and an eight run outing mixed in).

I’m in a 10 team league with 5 x 5 scoring. We start five OF, & have to keep two OF. As of now, my keepers are Ichiro & Hawpe. I am looking to pair Hawpe with maybe Chipper for an upgrade and am looking at Justin Upton, Holliday & Markakis. Markakis & Holliday are on the same team & can likely be had easier than Upton. Who should I go after of these three?
– Jim

Keeper questions are always a bit difficult. Are there salaries involved? Is there a contract length for how long you can hold on to players? Etc. Without knowing the answer to those type of things, I’ll just answer with the belief that you can keep the guys for a couple of years, and that there is no salary concern.

(1) You have to keep Ichiro. Period. Not only does he hit .300+ every year, he does so in such a massive amount of at-bats that his production is even more valuable than you would think straight away (an extra 80 at-bats versus a “normal” everyday player with a .320 is huge to a team’s overall mark).

(2) Chipper Jones has little value in a keeper league at this point of his storied career, and he hasn’t looked anything like the hitter we have seen the past three seasons this year.

(3) Trying to parlay Chipper and Brad Hawpe for an upgrade seems like a fine idea. Remember, sell high. Hawpe is a solid 25 HR, 100 RBI guy, but his .324 batting average far exceeds his .288 career mark, and the man has no speed at all.

(4) Nick Markakis has averaged 22 homers, 100 RBI and 102 runs the past two years, and he owns a .298 career average. Unlike a lot of youngsters he also flashes solid strike zone control as evidenced by his .371 career OBP. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 20/20 guy like some hoped, or even a 15/15 guy, but at the same time I could see him hit .300-20-100-100-10 for about the next decade, and that is tremendous.

(5) Justin Upton won’t be 22 until August, and that guy has tons of talent. He is hitting nearly .300 with 13 steals, and the power should grow to the 30-HR level. I still see holes in that swing, and I worry about his brutal defense in the outfield, but he is already a great player, and one who could dominate for years.

(6) Matt Holliday has been awful for three months, and everyone has just forgotten about him. I’ve received a couple of emails the past few days asking me about his value. In fact, one of the emails said that a guy was trying really hard to get the suddenly hot Ryan Ludwick – and if he couldn’t he would try to get Holliday. What? Try to get Holliday as a fall back option? That sounds crazy. Seems to me that everyone has allowed three months of struggling to erase three years of superstar performance. I know he isn’t in Colorado anymore, but really, Ryan Ludwick? I don’t care if he ends up moving to another club or staying in Oakland. If the emails I have received recently are any indication of how Holliday is being viewed out there, I’m all over acquiring that guy at a major discount.

So what would I do? I would offer Hawpe and Chipper for Holliday and ??? – I’d ask for another part because as I stated, I bet Holliday’s current owner is so down on him that he would throw someone else in if it would mean ridding himself of the former Colorado great. If not, targeting Markakis or Upton would also make a lot of sense as they certainly possesses more fantasy upside than Hawpe ever will. Some might rank the guys Upton. Markakis, Holliday, but I have a lot of faith in Matt.

By Ray Flowers

McLouth Traded to Braves

The Braves, desperate for a big stick to add to the outfield mix, have acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates in exchange for three minor league prospects not named Tommy Hanson or Kris Medlen in a huge move that shook the baseball universe late on Wednesday night.

The Braves recently came to the realization that Jordan Schafer and his .204 average and 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats wasn’t big league ready, so they sent him down to the minors recently which left the club one bat short in the outfield. The Braves, in desperate need of some pop considering that the team leaders in home runs have just five – Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar (and as you obviously surmised none of those guys is an outfielder), were looking to make a big move. As such, reports are that the Braves sent pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke as well as outfielder Gorkys Hernandez to the Pirates for their best player, McLouth, an outfielder with power, perfectly fitting the Braves’ need.

Nate McLouth hit .276 with 26 home runs and 94 RBI in 2008 as he also managed to scored 113 runs while swiping 23 bases. As such, he was one of just four 25/25 men in the bigs – the others being some fairly significant names: Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran. Though he has battled some injuries this season, McLouth is still working on a pace that would net him roughly 30 home runs, 115 RBI, 95 runs and 25 steals, a virtually repeat of his 2008 campaign. Sure his average is a bit down at .256, but that should reverse itself when his “luck” changes. By luck I mean when his BABIP, just .262, returns to his career level of .285, and his line drive rate, currently just 13.6%, also picks up and returns to his traditional level of 18.8%, that average of McLouth’s should rise a bit at least returning to the realm of respectable even if he doesn’t push the .290 or .300 mark.

As for the lineup change, McLouth figures to become one of the centerpieces of what could be a tremendous 3-4-5 in the heart of the Braves lineup with Chipper and Brian McCann. That obviously bodes well for his outlook. In addition, he moves from a park in Pittsburgh that is currently 19th according to Park Factors in runs scored to a park that is 15th. That isn’t a huge improvement, but it should help a bit. However, he is also going from the park that was 11th according to Park Indices in 2008 in the NL in home runs for left-handed batters to the park that ranked 13th. That’s pretty much a wash, though hitting in a better lineup with a team vying for a playoff spot should certainly offer a boost to a guy who has played for an outright loser his whole life.

As for the Pirates, this team, which hasn’t made the playoffs since 1992 when Barry Bonds roamed their outfield, has once again traded a franchise building block for future promise. At some point the fans in that wonderful city are just going to have to give up and cheer for the Steelers year round as it’s clear that the baseball team just isn’t wiling to do what is necessary to field a championship caliber team on the diamond. My heart goes out to you Pirates fans. Maybe it isn’t too late to cheer the Penguins on as they try to come back against the Red Wings to win the Stanley Cup.

By Ray Flowers