Player Profiles: Corner Infielders

We all love Albert Pujols an Evan Longoria, but it’s just not always feasible to have a superstar at first or third base on a fantasy squad, let alone one at each position. Today I’m going to run through some guys who might not quite be top-shelf option but still qualify at first or third base for the 2012.

Chone Figgins: Looking for a corner infielder that could steal you 30 bases on the cheap? This just might be your guy. Figgins, who currently has an ADP of 291 according to MockDraftCentral.com, is going off the board 24th at the third base position. Coming off a dreadful year, Figgins figures to be heavily involved with the Mariners this year and he could easily bat out of the leadoff spot. If he does, he could end up being a nice draft day bargain.

Todd Helton: He’s having a huge spring, but he has recurring back woes an will be 39 in August. Still, he hit .302 with 14 homers and 69 RBI last season, numbers that don’t look that different from a guy like James Loney who will also be discussed below. Helton has nothing to give other than a repeat of last year, and that’s likely why people are overlooking him on draft day.

Aubrey Huff: Everyone is all excited about Brandon Belt, as they should be since the youngster has tons of talent, but Huff is being treated as an afterthought. I will admit things could go either way – Huff could get 500 at-bats or 350 – but with the way the Giants offense looks right now, I think he’ll be closer to the bigger mark. Can the Giants really hope to win if they are giving 500 at-bats to Angel Pagan and Nate Schierholtz? I don’t think so. The club also lacks thump, and while Huff isn’t a huge power bat, the club doesn’t have enough 20-homer power bats to simply overlook Aubrey. Plus, and I know it makes NO sense, it’s an even year, and he just kills it when it is (see his player card).

James Loney: Interested in getting an .285 hitting, 85 RBI bat at pick 259 in mixed leagues? If you are, Loney is your guy. You’re sitting there saying to yourself ‘Ray has lost his marbles.’ I haven’t. Did you know that Loney has hit .281 or better in five of his six seasons? You’re also aware that in three of the last four seasons that he’s also had at least 88 RBI, right? Oh you weren’t? Consider yourself informed.

Brent Morel: He may end up hitting ninth in the order, but Morel has little competition for a starting spot at the hot corner with the White Sox. He may never be any better than a guy like Danny Valencia was last season, but if you get get a .246-15-72-63-2 line from a guy being drafted around 275th overall (those were Valencia’s numbers last season), should you at least know which team he plays for?

Gaby Sanchez: He’s hit 19 homer each of the last two years while knocking in 85 and 78 runs, and he also scored 72 times each season. If Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez do what is expected, and Mike Stanton is out there impressing with the power, then the Marlins might have a pretty darn good lineup. By the way, last season Sanchez had as many homers and RBI as Eric Hosmer and scored just one run less than Michael Morse.

Ian Stewart: A potential 30 homer bat with an ADP of over 380? Sign me up for that. Stewart is dealing with a wrist issue that he will have to keep an eye on all year, and that is concern. Also concerning is Stewart’s massive K-rate of 28 percent, or more than once every four at-bats. I’m not saying Stewart will be an All-Star, and he is coming off a .156, zero homer effort in 122 at-bats, but how in the world is he being taken after Miguel Tejada, Jose Lopez and Scott Rolen? Really people?

Mark Trumbo: I must be missing something here, aren’t I? Why in the world is everyone so high on a guy who had a .291 OBP an a BB/K mark of 0.21 last season? The guy has major power, but he also has some pretty gaping holes in his game. Everyone assumes he is going to play third base full time this year. One main problem with that is that Alberto Callaspo is already in town, and he owns a solid glove (Trumbo is still trying to prove he can handle the hot corner). Callaspo also hit .288 last year and is a .281 career hitter with a .337 OBP. Those numbers aren’t great, but Trumbo doesn’t figure to reach either in 2012. For those thinking Trumbo is going to get 500 at-bats this season I would offer an  dose of reality – it’s going to be tough for him to get there.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers

Labor Day

It’s Labor Day, so I hope all of you are pulling back on a beer, sitting poolside, and just enjoying life while I soldier on at the keyboard (I know, I’m, such a martyr aren’t I?).

Franklin Gutierrez is likely done for the year with a strained oblique muscle. He’s been bad for so long that you may have forgotten that he avereged 16 homers, 67 RBI, 73 runs and 21 steals the past two years. Well, he hit one homer, knocked in 19 runners, scored 26 times and stole 13 bases in 92 games for the Mariners this season. Yeah, that qualifies as a massive letdown. Don’t get me started on his teammate Chone Figgins (.188-1-15-24-11).

Remeber that story about Josh Hamilton not being able to see during the day time because he had light colored eyes (What’s on Tap)? Well, Hamilton has apparently settled on a routine of drops and sunglasses to help cure his woes, and it’s showing as he has hit .342 in day games since the All-Star break. I still find this story so fascinating. Is he really the only player in baseball with light colored eyes? I’m no optomitrist, but still.

I bet you might be unware of this fact but Aaron Hill is finally hitting. I know, shocking to think isn’t it? Not only has he hit .381 since he joined the surging D’backs he’s also been smoking hot of late going 11-for-22. That’s a .500 average folks. It’s not time to put behind him all the all struggles he’s shown the past two years, but he’s finally starting to perform like the All-Star level second baseman that he has shown himself to be previously.

Speaking of hot bats, have you been keeping an eye on Carlos Lee? Of course you haven’t, and why would you since he plays for the Astros. However, if you haven’t checked lately you will have missed the fact that he’s  hit, get this, .457 the past two weeks. His current hot streak has pushed him up to a pace that would nedt hit a line of .277-16-89. That’s not great production by any means, but it’s a usuable line in deep mixed leagues.

Cliff Pennington the last two weeks – .359 with 15 RBI. One word for that – wow.

Grady Sizemore has been activated from the DL. He’s hitting .237 without a single steal in 61 games this season. Remember back when he was a 30/30 performer in 2008 as he was finishing up a 4-year run of at least 22 homers, 76 RBI, 101 runs and 22 steals?

Example 1,873,279 of why being a major league pitcher isn’t always fair. Ian Kennedy leads the NL with an 18-4 record while teammate Daniel Hudson is 15-9. Those two D’back hurlers have ERAs of 2.96 and 3.53, while their WHIPs are 1.12 and 1.22. Tim Lincecum is 12-12 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while Matt Cain is 11-9 with a 2.85 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP. Speaking of poor records, Lincecum, Cain, Ryan Vogelsong (2.62) and Madison Bumgarner (3.43) are all in the top-16 in the NL in ERA (if you remove MadBum the other trio of Giants hurlers are all in the top-8). That foursome has combined to go 42-39 for the sinking Giants.

by Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Which players, who have stunk so far, could be in line for a strong second half? It’s a question I get all the time. So I’m going to spend some time in my next few articles talking about which players you should BUY for the second half. Today, the infield.

CATCHER
Kurt Suzuki: .225-7-22-25-2 in 275 ABs

Two things here. First, Suzuki has been pretty bad, so he’ll be cheap to acquire. Second, the guy plays almost every day, so even if he isn’t that talented a hitter his counting stats figure to be solid because he rarely sits. A full time player for three years, Suzuki is currently on pace for four year lows in homers, RBI, runs, average, OBP and SLG. At the same time his BB/K is the same as always and he’s actually operating at the second best line drive rate of his career at 19.2 percent. History says his BABIP should rise, it’s .272 for his career and with a 19.2 percent line drive rate his mark shouldn’t be a sickly .235. When it does, that average should creep upwards providing even more value.

FIRST BASE
Carlos Lee: .268-7-48-35-3 in 339 ABs
Lee is a solid veteran type that you could target to acquire on the cheap since his current owner would probably deal him for relatively little. History says power is coming, he’s hit at least 24 homers each year since 2000, and every one of his 12 seasons he’s had at least 80 RBI. I wouldn’t expect him to go homer crazy in the second half, but he’s never finished a season with a HR/F mark below 9.5 percent so it would stand to reason that his 5.1 percent mark would improve moving forward.

SECOND BASE
Dan Uggla: .185-15-34-43-1 in 340 ABs
Obviously you want to add Uggla, right? Well not according to some people. I will freely admit that a guy who is hitting .185 with an OBP (.257) that would be a poor batting average is a disaster. At the same time, his power is finally starting to show, and that should remain a constant moving forward. Don’t overlook the fact that, despite being an  absolute dead weight to a club in the average and steals categories, that Uggla is fourth at the second base position in homers, has as many RBI as Ian Kinsler and has scored more runs than Michael Young (42).

THIRD BASE
Chone Figgins: .183-1-14-21-9 in 262 ABs
What a disaster this position has been. David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria, the top-4 at the position coming into the year, have all missed extensive time with injury. It just gets worse from there as well as seemingly every player at the position has something wrong with them. As such, there really isn’t much to mine at the third base spot since most leagues have all these guys already rostered, so coming up with a name that you could buy on the cheap to help out was pretty difficult. I went off the board and listed Figgins who is almost certain to be dealt. If he is, there’s still a chance that he could be a productive performer in the second half – he can’t possibly have fallen this far so quickly, and he’s likely on waivers in your mixed league so you can pick him up for nothing.

SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett: .238-1-21-32-18 in 323 at-bats

Bartlett has maintained some value by swiping bags, but overall his work has been awful. Despite a career norm in BB/K (0.51), and what would be the second best line drive rate of his career (23 percent), Bartlett is undershooting his career average by .038 points partly because his BABIP is .280, a mark that is .037 points below his career level. If he were to maintain his current rate, he’d also post a six year low in the category. He has no power, and won’t drive in any runs, but he certainly seems like a strong candidate to boost his average, substantially, in the second half.

ALL-STAR GAME

Oh, and by the latest count it appears that 83 players have been named to the All-Star teams. That’s more than 10 percent of the players in the league. What a joke.

 By Ray Flowers

BABIP – An Early Look

photo © 2010 Chelsea N. | more info (via: Wylio)

You hear the term Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) mentioned along in the analysis of players, and today I’m going to break down a few of the players whose current BABIP marks are outstanding for one reason or another.

WHAT IS BABIP?

BABIP, also referred to as a player’s hit rate, is the rate at which batted balls end up as base hits. There is one caveat with BABIP; it removes home runs from the equation, because technically the ball isn’t in play on a home run. Here is the simple formula in play for the measure:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

The major league average is in the .290-.300 range, but it should be pointed out that players tend to set their own baselines, and even if their batting averages are similar, they can have differing BABIP marks. Example:

Ichiro Suzuki has a .330 career batting average, Albert Pujols .330.
Ichiro has a .356 career BABIP, Pujols .313.
(Part of the reason for that is that Pujols hits 40 homers a year, and they don’t count toward a player’s BABIP mark).

With that brief intro, here are some early season outliers. To be fair, there really isn’t enough data to draw on for players in 2011, so this is more of a comparison looking at established levels than it is an indictment or thumbs up for the batters work through a couple of weeks of the big league season.

IN NEED OF TLC

.094 – Jorge Posada
Remember when I wrote that .290-.300 is the big league average? I don’t really need to break down how unlucky Posada has been this year then do I?

.162 – Jacoby Ellsbury
Players with big time wheels often exceed the big league average by a substantial amount because their legs allow them to beat out balls that the average player simply can’t. This situation makes Ellsbury’s low BABIP even more odd, especially since he has a .315 career mark. Ellsbury’s situation is bound to change, but he really needs to cut down on his Ks with 14 in 55 ABs this year or it won’t really matter.

All of the following batters are mired in terribly slow starts that will turn around in short order if history is an accurate guide.

.167 – Jason Heyward
.169 – Angel Pagan
.176 – Ian Kinsler
.179 – Carl Crawford
.182 – Brett Gardner
.183 – Chone Figgins
.185 – Dan Uggla
.197 – James Loney

The oddest name on that list might be Figgins. First off he has speed which, as mentioned, always helps. Second, his current mark is barely 50 percent of his career mark of .335. Third, he’s been hitting the ball hard with a line drive rate of 20.7 percent. It’s not quite up to his career level of 23.2, but it’s better than the big league average of 19-20 percent. Add that all together and it appears that Figgins is a great buy low candidate.

MIGHT BE TIME TO MOVE

The following players have marks that are out of this world right now, ones that hey have no chance in hell of being able to extend out for the course of the season (Austin Jackson led baseball with a mark of .396 last year). You might consider selling high on some of these guys, especially the ones that aren’t “household” names (obviously you’d only move the top-3 names on the list if you received a whopping package in return).

.500 – Matt Kemp
.456 – Andre Ethier
.444 – Joey Votto
.431 – Maicer Izturis
.426 – Alex Gordon
.421 – David Freese
.421 – Colby Rasmus
.410 – Travis Hafner
.410 – Nick Hundley

The last two names on the list deserve a mention.

Everyone is jumping on the Hafner train, and I fear that sucker is about ready to veer off the tracks. Maybe he is finally healthy after years of not being physically capable of playing everyday, but as a DH only eligible player he’s really going to clog your roster up if he stops hitting. Hafner’s career BABIP is .318, and only once in the last four years has he even reached that level.

Hundley is a catcher, so if he goes out there and hits .250-15-65 people will be happy, but some people seem to have the feeling that he might be the next V-Mart. He isn’t, not by a long shot. In his three previous seasons Hundley posted marks of .288, .303 and .293 in the BABIP column, so do you really think he’s going to be able to sustain a mark that is .100 points clear of that?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 13, 2010

A couple of players have decided where they will be plying their talents in 2011, while a few others seem to be nearing an end to the saga of where they will play in the coming campaign.

Scott Downs: The ace lefty reliever left the cold of Toronto for the warmth of Southern California when he signed a 3-year, $15 million deal with the Angels. Downs has been a wonderful reliever since the start of the 2007 season with some rather impressive numbers that Zack Greinke would be proud to call his own – 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 7.80 K/9 over 236.2 innings. Downs is also a dominating force against any left-handed batter with a career .223 batting average against portsiders. Simply put, he is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Is this signing a prelude to the Angels also adding power-armed Rafael Soriano as many thought? The answer would appear to be no. It turns out the Angels are likely done spending on their bullpen and will instead go with a bullpen by committee in 2011. “If we need one or two guys at times to get the last out, we’re going to do it but I don’t think the committee’s going to be very large,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. Fernando Rodney would appear to be the leader in the clubhouse for the spot, though if the matchup dictates we could easily see Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden and Mr. Downs working the ninth inning.

Matt Garza: This impressive right-handed arm is apparently up for auction, and the Cubs are looking at picking up the impressive righty. Why Garza over another available righty, Zack Greinke? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out in Gauging the Value of Garza vs. Greinke, the reason the Cubs, or any team, would be more interested in Garza is the fact that he is in a more financially agreeable position with the end result being he will be paid, over the next three seasons, about what Greinke will make over the next two. Garza also has five playoff starts in his career – Greinke has none – and Matt has pitched very well when the pressure has been on (2-1, 3.48 ERA), and you know teams love to see success in the second season. Both pitchers are solid options who have pitched well the past three years. Here are the numbers for 2008-10.

M.Garza: 34-31, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.32/BB
Greinke: 39-32, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.74 K/BB

Either one would be a tremendous coup for whichever team acquires their services. From an on-field assessment Greinke would appear to be the better hurler, but in terms of the dinero it will take to sign their checks the next three years the more prudent course of action would be to pull the trigger on Garza.

Bill Hall: The Dodgers appear to be in the lead for his services with a report suggesting that they would even make him their starter in left field against right-handed pitching. For the Dodgers sake let’s hope that report was inaccurate. There might even be a bidding war on the horizon as the Astros too are interested in adding the versatile Hall. To think, all a guy has to do is hit worse than the league average (.247), never get on base (.316) and always strikeout (more than 30 percent of the time) to get paid millions of dollars to play professional baseball. These teams do realize that Hall has hit .225 with a .687 OPS over his last 1,082 at-bat don’t they? The versatility he brings is nice, and he does have some pop with 41 homers over those 1,082 ABs, but there is no way you can legitimately make the argument that he should be an every day player on a club that hopes to make the playoffs.

Brendan Ryan: No longer needed in St. Louis after the Cards brought in Ryan Theriot, Ryan was dealt to the Mariners for RHP Maikel Cleto. Ryan, widely regarded as a plus defender, Ryan hit a mere .223 with a sickly .573 OPS lasts season in more than 430 at-bats for the Cards (perhaps the wrist injury that required surgery was more of an issue than he let on). In a career of more than 400 games in the bigs, Ryan has hit .259 with a .658 OPS, though at least he has flashed some speed (39 steals). Can he hit enough to play everyday? The jury is still out. What we do know is that he will be given a chance to earn a starting job either at second or short for the Mariners. Here is what this move means for the Mariners.

(1) Chone Figgins will likely move back to third base this season. This is a great bonus since he will obviously qualify at second and third, as well as middle infield and corner infield, in fantasy leagues. He hit an awful .259 but he still stole 42 bases in 2010, so bump him up in your rankings a bit with this news.

(2) Dustin Ackley is going to have to impress in spring training to make the club. Despite a strong AFL effort that ended up with him taking home league MVP honors (he led the league in average at .424, OBP at .581 and SLG at .758), Ackley isn’t going to be handed a starting spot at second base, he is going to have to earn it. If Dustin doesn’t prove he belongs, Ryan will play second base.

(3) If Ackley proves capable of handling the rigors of second base and major league pitching, Ryan will then compete with Jack Wilson for the starting spot at shortstop. Wilson was no better than Ryan at the dish hitting .249 with a .598 OPS, and injuries limited him to 193 at-bats. He still plays decent defense, but why wouldn’t the Marinres go with the younger Ryan if everything else was equal?

As for Cleto, the 21 year old has hit 100 mph on the radar gun, but he had a terrible 6.16 ERA in Single-A ball last season and is one of those “projects” that teams simply take a flier on in case it comes together. “Cleto has a power arm,” GM John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back-of-the-bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

In closing, for continued updates on the machinations of the world of baseball make sure you follow the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Blogosphere

I’m going to do something I haven’t done in a long while, and that is I’m going to link to a bunch of pieces that I think you might find interesting – similar to what we do with our Blog Roll pieces at Fanball.com and Rototimes.com. With that, here are some of the pieces that have caught my attention of late.

Offseason Moves: AL West – This piece goes over the myriad of moves by the teams in the division including the additions of Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. It also details two players – Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero – that switched teams but stayed in the division.

Team Poll: Oakland A’s — We’ve been reviewing each team as a staff, giving our thoughts on which players are in line to break out, fail etc. The most recent piece focuses on the team from California.

Post-Hype Sleeper: Cameron Maybin — Some of the best options on draft day are those youngsters that didn’t quite live up to the hype in their first go round. Cameron Maybin just might fit that outlook provided that his operated on shoulder is healthy.

On Nathan and Broxton — Ted Carlson does a great job in discussing just what it means to be an effective reliever year after year. Here’s a shock – it’s a lot harder than you might think.

Updated Top 10s — Interested in what one of the best minds in the business thinks about who the top-10 players are at each position. I know what you’re thinking oo, and I’m not referring to myself here.

5 Questions: Chicago Cubs — Our Cardinals blogger has begun his look around the NL Central by starting with the team most figure will represent the biggest roadblock to the playoffs for the team from St. Louis.

Breaking Down: Cabrera/Garko/Gross – I hate to toot my own horn, but you didn’t think I wouldn’t being the braggart I am did you? Per the title, I break down the recent signings of Orlando Cabrera (Reds), Ryan Garko (Mariners) and Gabe Gross (Athletics).

Pick an Ace, Any Ace – How does the Angels’ rotation of Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro look to our intrepid Angels writer?

Player Profile: Mark Teahen — The White Sox are truly counting on one of their offseason acquisitions, infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen. He’s never really been a difference maker, but hopes are high that he might finally reach that status in 2010.

Monday Notes on the Rangers — Which players are in the news for the team from the south?

Diamondback Non-Roster Players — The D’backs are bringing 17 non-rostered players to spring training. Have you even heard of any of them before?

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Third Base

Today I’m going to discuss the third base position as I continue to review my predictions for the top-10 at the position to see how they panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright

3. Aramis Ramirez

4. Evan Longoria

5. Chippers Jones

6. Garrett Atkins

7. Chone Figgins

8. Aubrey Huff

9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Alex Gordon

A-Rod rebounded from hip surgery and missing a month of action to record yet another 30-HR, 100-RBI season. That’s 12-straight years of that type of effort to tie the all-time record previously held by Jimmie Foxx. Yeah, he really slowed down didn’t he?

Wright hit .307, two points below his career mark, got on base at a .390 clip (career .389) and stole 27 bases. Yet his season was a failure. Why? A five year low in runs (88) and RBI (72) was distressing, but his simply atrocious total of 10 homers, after 26 or more the previous four seasons, rendered his ’09 after an abysmal outing for a player who wasn’t hurt.

Ramirez injured his shoulder which limited him to a mere 82 games played. Still, in half a season of games he hit .319 with a .905 OPS as he hit 15 long balls and 65 RBI putting his production slightly ahead of the levels we have come to expect.

Longoria had only 58 RBI over his last 105 games, but with 55 in his first 51 his overall mark of 113 was the best at the position. Evan also went deep 33 times, was one of only three third sackers to score 100 runs (100 exactly), and hit a solid .281 with a .889 OPS. Not a bad second season in the league wouldn’t you say?

Jones hit at least .324 from 2006-08, but at 37 years of age expecting a repeat was asking too much (he hit just .264). Why was he ranked fifth on my list then if I already had lower expectations for his ’09 outlook? Bottom line was that the third base position just wasn’t that deep heading into last season (and still isn’t in 2010).

Atkins was abysmal. Period. You can read all about the performance in my recent Five Questions piece.

Figgins had a terrific season and it will make him a lot of money this offseason. Chone led the position with 114 runs and 42 steals, while hitting .298 with a .395 OBP. By thaw way, he was second in the AL in runs scored (Dustin Pedroia crossed the plate 115 times).

Huff failed, miserably, to repeat his tremendous 2008 effort (.304-32-108) turning out a .241-15-85 line in a season split with the Orioles and Tigers. He didn’t play a single game at third instead seeing time exclusively at first base (93 games) and DH.

Youkilis was much more productive than I thought he would be. He failed to match his ’08 numbers (.312-29-115-91), but was pretty darn close across the board (.306-27-94-99).

Gordon was injured, had hip surgery, spent time at Triple-A and all-around was a huge disappointment. He hit only .232 with a .703 OPS in 49 games, and in the offseason the Royals brought in Josh Fields to possibly challenge Gordon for starts at third in the coming campaign.

By Ray Flowers

AFL Impressions

As I sit here in the airport eating a rather bland turkey sandwich, I had a few moments in which to detail a few of the more interesting tidbits that I was exposed to while in Arizona for the yearly Arizona Fall League.

The biggest disappointment of the trip was not getting a chance to see Stephen Strasburg throw a couple of innings. He was supposed to pitch in the Rising Stars Game, but he came up with some mysterious neck issue that kept him out of the contest (he should return to action before the AFL season ends). Maybe he hurt himself getting a tan at the pool.

I could work with one of the best crews in the business if you just read their work. When you get a chance to spend time with them, you realize that not only are they braniacs in the world of sports, they are great people as well. Good stuff.

Jemile Weeks is listed at 5’10″. He is lucky if he is 5’8″. Reminds me a lot of Chone Figgins with his size and approach.

I know they say Buster Posey is old enough to drink, but I swear the guy looks like he could be the kid in the Jerry Maguire movie – minus the glasses of course.

Grant Desme may have set the AFL on fire with his stretch of 10 bombs in 10 games, but he didn’t impress me at all at the dish. Gotta say as well that his arm is a mystery. On Friday he two-hopped the infielders on a couple of throws, though on Saturday night at the Stars’ game he unleashed a powerful toss to nail a runner that had me second guessing my initial impression.

Domonic Brown has got that tall lanky body that will lend itself to comparisons with a guy like Chris Young. While he may have that kind of all-around talent, he needs to add about 20 pounds to his frame while at the same time learning to keep his balance at the dish. He was all over the place with his cuts.

Tanner Scheppers brings the cheese. He has an odd set position on the mound where he starts in almost a sprinters type setup in the blocks in the 100-meter dash. No matter how he starts out, that is one electric arm.

Mike Moustakas has what was called by fellow Fanball employee Ted Carlson a “Royals’ body.” It worked out for Billy Butler, but for a guy who was drafted as a shortstop I just don’t get it. That lower half of his is straight out of the catcher’s handbook. He didn’t impress me at all.

Josh Fields doesn’t cast a large shadow with his size, but he looked pretty darn sharp attacking hitters in the contest.

Ike Davis may be a first round pick, but he has a long ways to go. He drops his hands about 12 inches as he enters the “launch position” which would seem to leave him terribly vulnerable to high heat and anything off-speed. He also has an odd throwing motion, albeit a smooth one, where he hooks his hand as he takes it back ala Barry Zito.

Dustin Ackley didn’t make much of an impression, but he clearly has the look of a big leaguer – sooner rather than later.

And finally, the future might be bright for the Reds. Chris Heisey looked sharp while Yonder Alfonso was hitting like it was an arcade game.

No telling just how many of these fellas will make their mark in the bigs, but it was nice to see the young talent that will likely be gracing ball fields in the majors for years to come.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

Anecdotal evidence is unreliable when trying to paint a picture of something as the human mind tends to overemphasize what it has just witnessed paying little attention to things like context and history. Nowhere is this more apparent then when it comes to players being derided for playoff failures even though we are often talking about something like 5-10 games. With that …

Here is my daily Alex Rodriguez check up. After hitting .455 with two homers and six RBI in the ALDS, he has gone on to hit .375 with three homers and five RBI in the ALCS. He has been so hot that Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia even paid him the ultimate sign of respect by walking him intentionally with the bases empty. I’ve said it before too many times to count, but remember context and sample size people. Remember back three weeks ago when A-Rod was the biggest playoff choker ever? Now he has been hot for two weeks and all of a sudden everyone thinks he is the greatest thing since the invention of porn. Look at things this way. In his regular season career A-Rod has produced a .305/.390/.576 line, and with his recent hot streak his playoff numbers are nearly identical at .299/.388/.563. It all evens out folks, though sometimes the road is a bit bumpy.

Want to talk about a playoff choker? Well then, how about we look at Mark Teixeira who is 2-for-21 of late in the playoffs. I’m just kidding. Remember the value of sample size (give me 21 at-bats and I can make Babe Ruth look pitiful and Omar Vizquel look like a legend). However, the case of Chone Figgins is worth examining. Figgins has hit .291 during his regular season career of more than 3,500 at-bats, but come playoff time he has barely hit his weight at .174, though again we are talking about just 115 at-bats. Still, he has looked atrocious this post-season going just 2-for-34, good for a .059 average. We are talking about a handful of at-bats of course, but in his last seven playoffs series Figgins has hit under .150 five times. That’s ugly.

One of the major reasons that Scott Kazmir was brought to the Angels was because of his career-long success against he Bronx Bombers which can be seen in his 2.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.83 K/9 mark over 87.2 innings covering 15 appearances. So much for history as he went out and laid an egg against the Yankees allowing six hits, four walks and four runs in just four innings of work in the ALCS. As a result, his two post-season outings this season have resulted in an 8.10 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. I don’t think that is what the Angels had in mind when they traded for him. It’s just two starts – sample size people – but the two pathetic outings certainly leave a bad taste in Kazmir’s mouth after he had so much success down the stretch when he posted a 1.73 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in six starts with the team from Southern California.

One of the worst calls in playoff baseball history occurred yesterday. It hardly mattered as the Yankees crushed the Angels, but it was still galling in it’s ineptitude. You can watch the terrible call by clicking on the link where a full description of what went wrong is explained. Dreadful.

INJURY NEWS

Albert Pujols’ elbow surgery went well as a few bone chips (apparently five) were removed from his right wing, and Pujols’ should be fully prepared to play once spring training roles around. Still, the continued issues with Pujols’ right elbow are really starting to concern me. Nothing destroys a fantasy teams chance of winning a title like having your first round draft pick crap out (ask Jose Reyes owners), and with each “minor” procedure on Pujols’ elbow I grow more concerned. We all know he will eventually need Tommy John surgery given the partially torn elbow ligament he is dealing with, and just because he has been able to play through it without further exacerbating the problem the past few years is no guarantee that he will be able to do so in 2010. Honestly I’d have to do some serious number crunching before I could suggest passing on Pujols if you had the #1 spot in your draft, but a guy like Hanley Ramirez is starting to look awfully appealing despite the reduction in steals he posted in 2009 (just 27 after being over 35 each of the previous three years, though who really cares when you hit .342, score 101 runs, knock in 106 and play shortstop?).

By Ray Flowers

The Last Man

I have nothing to say about the Dodgers or Kim Kardashian, I just like to look at her so I put her picture at the top of this piece.

There is one day left to vote on for the final player to be added to each league’s All-Star team for next week in St. Louis. If you need a little bit of perspective on who are the best choices in each league, here are my thoughts.

Note: I’m purely addressing who is the most qualified option paying no attention to position or what the All-Star squads may or may not need given how the rosters are configured.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chone Figgins, 3B, LAA: .310-1-27-63-24 in 318 ABs
Figgins has produced the average that he didn’t last season (.276), and he is on pace to return to the 40-steal plateau that he reached in 2005-07. He isn’t hitting well against lefties (.227) but he is smoking righties to the tune of a .342 mark. He ranks 11th in the AL in average, fourth in steals and he leads the junior circuit in runs scored.

Brandon Inge, 3B/C, DET: .267-19-54-48-2 in 285 ABs
Really scuffing of late hitting just .205 with a .655 OPS the past two weeks, Inge has been a life saver for the Tigers, and for those fantasy leaguers who have been running him out there as a catcher eligible player. Though he has played exclusively third this season, if we compare his numbers to the other catchers he leads the way in home runs and is second in RBI to Victor Martinez (57). As is, he leads third sackers in homers and his 54 RBI are second to Evan Longoria (64).

Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX: .252-20-54-60-17 in 333 ABs
Never has a potential 30/30 season from a second basemen looked so bad. The reason is that .252 average. Kinsler, who hit .322 in April, has hit .226 over his last 60 games. Still, he is tied for the position lead with Aaron Hill in home runs, is second to Hill in RBI (59), is second in runs (Brian Roberts has 62) and he is tied with Roberts for first at the position with 17 steals. That’s a whole lot of top shelf work, minus the batting average.

Adam Lind, OF, TOR: .308-18-57-49-1 in 321 ABs
He has been a breakout star all year, and he just keeps hitting. Still, his numbers don’t really stand out until you compare him to other AL outfielders and realize that he has more homers than Torii Hunter (17) while he has knocked in more runs than all but two others (Jason Bay has 71, Hunter 65).

Carlos Pena, 1B, TB: .228-23-55-59-1 in 294 ABs
Leads the AL in home runs, but other than that, his performance has been awful including being second in the league with 106 Ks, and don’t even get me started about how absurd it is to be considering a man who is hitting .228 for the All-Star team.

5. Pena
4. Lind
3. Inge
2. Figgins
1. Kinsler

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cristian Guzman. SS, WAS: .310-3-21-41-3 in 297 ABs
The opposite of Pena above, this man’s value is totally batting average driven as he has as many home runs this season as Paul Konerko hit on Tuesday night. Guzman also has no speed at all – those three steals are the same as Tyler Greene who has only seen the field enough for 104 at-bats with the Cardinals.

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD: .307-10-45-44-19 in 306 ABs
Kemp still hasn’t developed the power that some believe he one day will, but it’s tough to down a guy who is hitting over .300 with a pace that would result in 85 runs, 85 RBI and 35 steals. Oh, and you want to make sure he is always in the lineup if there is a lefty on the hill as he simply murders them (.384/.483/.630 in 73 ABs).

Mark Reynolds, 3B, ARI: .265-24-62-53-14 in 309 ABs
Yes he strikeouts out at an embarrassing rate (114 Ks or one per 2.71 ABs), but the man still produces as he leads the position in home runs and RBI while he is third in steals behind Wright (20) and Emilio Bonifacio (18). Not many players go 25/25 with 120 RBI (it’s only happened 16 times in big league history).

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF: .328-13-48-38-3 in 287 ABs
This is exactly the type of guy the league should be looking to publicize. Portly, a free spirit quick with a smile, and one hell of a young hitter, the Kung Fu Panda has it all. He has a better batting average, more home runs, more RBI and a higher OPS than David Wright (.322-5-42 with a .878 OPS). Nuff said.

Shane Victorino, OF, PHI: .306-6-39-60-13 in 330 ABs
Pains me to list this guy fourth in the NL, but others have been more impressive. Still, he is the only outfielder in the NL who is hitting at least .300 with 60 runs, 10 steals and 100 hits. That should result in some love shouldn’t it?

5. Guzman
4. Victorino
3. Kemp
2. Reynolds
1. Sandoval

By Ray Flowers