Friday’s Follies

Miguel Cabrera is hitting .333 with 41 homers and 130 RBIs. He leads the AL in batting average and RBIs, and is one homer behind Josh Hamilton for the AL HR lead. That’s right folks, he is on the cusp of the Triple Crown. Will he win the award over everyone’s darling, Mike Trout? If late season performance sways voters than he surely will. Since the start of August, here are each man’s numbers.

Cabrera: .360-16-45-35 with a 1.145 OPS
Trout: .274-9-22-38 with a .811 OPS (Trout does have 15 SBs)

Thanks to Elias for this one. Chris Carpenter will be the first pitcher in the history of baseball to make his season debut after his teams 150th game played when that pitcher made 30 or more starts in the previous season. For more on Carpenter see my September 20th Mailbag piece.

Yu Darvish has had an up and down season, but he also has 214 Ks which are the 9th most for any rookie hurler since 1893. Of course he’s not really a rookie since he pitched for five seasons is Japan. Only once in those five seasons did he fail to record 200 Ks (he had 167 in 182 innings in 2009). He had 276 Ks in 232 innings last year for the Nippon Ham Fighters (I’m not making that name up).

I mentioned this at the BaseballGuys Twitter account last night, but for those of you that missed it – Eric Hosmer is on the cusp of something pretty impressive given just how dreadful his overall production has been. Yes he’s hitting .240 with 59 RBIs an a .686 OPS, but did you realize that he is just one homer from a 15/15 season? Those numbers stand out as there have been only 10 seasons of 15/15 by a first baseman in the 21st century with only three first sackers pulling off the trick more than once (Derrek Lee three times, Albert Pujols and Ryan Klesko two times).

I don’t normally look forward to Friday’s like most people do. Why? Because sports never stop. Think of it. When you are heading out to your in-laws for the holiday celebration in the car with the two kids in the backseat yelling, what are you doing? You’re listening to the radio (hence I work all the holidays for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio). Also, what do you do on the weekends? You watch sports. Therefore, it’s pretty obvious what I’m doing on the weekend – I’m working, hard at this point covering the NFL (my Sunday’s start at 7 AM PST when I tweet start/sit for @SiriusXMFantasy on Twitter. The Tweeting ends at 10 A PST, I then watch the games all day, and then do the radio thing at 7-10 PM PST which means my Sunday’s are 15 hours of work. Of course there are worst things to be doing than watching football, trust me I get that, but it’s still a long day). So what I’m basically trying to say is that I do appreciate Friday’s now. Given that I’m in all day Sunday, starting before the sun comes, I had better enjoy my Friday nights cause it’s pretty tough to be focused at 7 AM Sunday if I’m all about getting bombed on Saturday night until 4 AM.

Oh Carlos Quentin, you are killing me in my NL-only league. I know you are always hurt, I knew that when I drafted you, but this is pretty awful my friend. In each of the past three seasons you have hit at least 21 homers while appearing in 130, 99, 131 and 118 games. So I was thinking, on the safe side, 120 games worth of action. With less than two weeks left in the regular season Quentin has hit 16 homers in just 81 games played. Ugh. Too bad too as he’s averaging a homer every 17.6 at-bats after posting a 2009-11 mark of 17.25.

Chris Young is another player killing me in my NL-only league. Young is doing his normal torpedo job in the batting average category with a .227 mark (career .239) and his OPS is .740 (career .755) as expected. However, it’s the counting categories that have been the disappointment. After appearing in at least 134 games each of the previous five seasons, and four times he’s hit at least 148 games played, he’s appeared in all of 96 games this season. After hitting 47 homers the past two years he has 14 this season. After stealing 50 bags the past two years he has eight thefts this year. Let me state it another way. The past two years Young has averaged 24 homers and 25 steals, yeah that’s damn good. This year he has 14 homers and eight steals. That’s awful. He’s also scored 36 runs after posting at least 85 runs in four of the previous five seasons. Unmitigated disaster meet Chris Young.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September20, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Would you start Chris Carpenter Friday or wait and see?
– @lxvythrs

Chris Carpenter (thoracic outlet syndrome) last tossed a pitch of significance in October of 2011. That’s 11 months ago folks. I know that he is set to pitch Friday against the Cubs, but you have to be pretty desperate in my opinion to turn to Carpenter at this point of the fantasy season (obviously in H2H setups he might hold a bit more value as a streaming option depending on your league rules). Beyond the obvious, that he hasn’t tossed a single pitch of significance in 2012, we have the following. (1) Do you know how many pitches he has thrown in the minor leagues this season? Don’t bother looking it up. The answer is zero. (2) All he has done is throw simulated games. The last time he did so was last Saturday as he tossed a 95 pitch simulated game. Playing that out, it would seem logical to think that, even in a best case scenario, that he will throw at most six innings and that likely is asking too much. Could Carpenter toss a gem Friday? He certainly could. But given that he has been out of action for nearly a calendar year I’m not ready to throw him out there at such an important time of the year in the fantasy game unless I’m one of those people who doesn’t mind taking risks like diving with sharks, skydiving or going out to a restaurant to eat dinner by yourself (apparently going to dinner without a companion is risky behavior according to some).

Better keeper for next year – Johnny Cueto or Kris Medlen?
– @KRubes

Medlen has been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half. He’s undefeated at 8-0. Moreover, the Braves have won each of Medlen’s last 21 starts, the longest streak in baseball since Whitey Ford’s Yankees won 22-straight starts of his in the early 1950′s. He’s posted an ERA of 0.77. He has a WHIP of 0.84. He’s struck out 83 batters in 82.1 innings while walking only 13 batters. That’s as good a pitching line as you will likely ever see over a span of 82.1 innings. I hope we can all agree that the prospects of Medlen being that pitcher over the course of 180+ innings next year is infinitesimally minute, so the question is how much will his performance pull back in 2013? In order to try and get a feel for the answer to that question, let’s compare Medlen’s career numbers, over just slightly more than 300 innings, to those of Cueto.

Medlen: 7.88 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 3.63 K/BB, 1.42 GB/FB
Cueto: 7.01 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 2.50 K/BB, 1.24 GB/FB

Medlen has the slight advantage across the board, but the numbers are close. There is obviously the additional factor that Cueto has been a starting pitcher who has thrown more than 170 effective innings innings in four of his five seasons in the big leagues. There’s also this. Since the start of last season, here are the numbers for Cueto who has been no slouch in his own right.

26-14, 2.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.65 K/9, 2.87 K/BB

Neither player is a bad pitcher to hold of course, but I’m leaning to the history of Cueto in this matchup. Medlen might have slightly better skills than Cueto, but without even a full season of innings under his belt as a starter I will cast my lot into the corner of the Reds’ hurler.

Manny Machado vs. Elvis Andrus 2013?
– @ghostyoda

Tough one here.

Machado is one of the elite prospects in the game, period. He’s performed admirably this season hitting .264 with four homers, 17 RBIs and 17 runs scored in 38 games this season with the Orioles in his first taste of big league pitching. At the same time he’s walked just three times in 148 at-bats, and that makes me very nervous with a young player. As a result of his lack of patience he’s currently been able to get on base at a mere .276 rate, an awful number. Machado has also struck out 30 times leading to a sickening 0.10 BB/K mark. This shouldn’t be surprising though considering that Machado had only 109 games of Double-A ball under his belt and not a single game at the Triple-A level when he made his Orioles debut. Not just that, but Machado really wasn’t producing that well in the minor leagues either. In his 109 games at Double-A this season he was hitting a mere .266 with 11 homers. In time Machado, the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 Entry Draft, will likely be a borderline elite fantasy performer. He’s big (6’3”, 185 lbs), athletic, has 20 homer power and should also be able to steal 15 or so bases a year. Notice I said in time.

Andrus is already an elite level performer at the shortstop position, albeit without a hint of the power of Machado. To counterbalance that is the fact that Andrus is an impressive base stealing option. Andrus has stolen 20 bases this year, the fourth straight season he has reached that mark (in fact, it’s 4-year low as he had hit the 30 steal mark in each of his first three seasons). Andrus is also batting .291 this season, the best mark of his young career, as is his .353 OBP and .388 SLG. Andrus has also recorded at least 80 runs scored in each of his last three seasons.

At this point I’d go with Andrus. Machado may be the upside play, and perhaps in a few years he will eclipse Andrus in terms of his fantasy value, but for now the 20 year old Machado is simply too raw an inexperienced to take over a player who has been an impressive fantasy option for each of the last four years.

How many beers will it take to get over blowing a 40 point July lead in my 7×7 roto league?
– @mdbaumer

I’d say it would at least be a pony keg’s worth. Might want to add something a bit stronger, perhaps a lot stronger, something like a Lemon Drop maybe?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

I hate to say I told you so, oh who are we kidding I love nothing more than to tell you I told you so, but Henderson Alvarez has stunk this year. As I wrote back on April 2nd in his Player Profile: “Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012…He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces.” Amazingly for a guy who throws 93 mph with a wicked high 57.3 ground ball rate, Alvarez has still been just as bad as I suggested he would be five months ago. He’s gone 9-12 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with, wait for it, 62 Ks in 168.2 innings. That’s a 3.31 K/9 mark. You could TRIPLE that and he still wouldn’t be striking out 10 batters per nine innings. Given his stuff, that’s an unbelievably pathetic number.

It looks like the Cards will roll out there Chris Carpenter next week. Can’t have set up a better return for him either as it looks like he will be on the hill to face the Astros (more on them below). Carpenter will still have to make it through a 90 pitch simulated game, so he’s still no lock to return from his neck/shoulder woes, but the clubs is encouraged.

Felix Hernandez seems to think that he is Dice-K all of a sudden. King Felix allowed seven runs Thursday night and now has a 9.00 ERA and 2.13 WHIP over his last three starts. What do I always say? Sample size people. He’s been unabashedly awful his last three starts but over his last 12 outings he still owns a 2.63 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It’s not what anyone really wants to hear, but the truth is that things are just returning to “normal” with his performance.

Torii Hunter is hitting .300 this year, .309 to be precise. If you try to check the old memory banks for the last time that Hunter hit .300 you’ll be searching for a while since he has never hit .300 before as a big leaguer (he was one hit short in 2009 as he finished the season at .299). It’s not often that a guy sets a career best in his 16th season, but it certainly seems possible for Hunter given that he’s hitting an out of this world .351 over his last 56 games. Overlooked every year on draft day, Hunter just goes out and produces year after year (he’s batting .309 with 15 homers, 76 RBIs, 72 runs scored and nine steals).

The Houston Astros are 46-98 and have been outscored by their opponent by a major league worst 206 runs. No other NL team has been outscored by more than 117 runs (the Cubs). That is all.

Phil Hughes tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the listless Red Sox Thursday to up his season long record to 15-12. I know he’s a Yankee so everyone gets all excited about him, but consider these points. (1) His 3.96 ERA is only slightly below the league average of 4.09. (2) His 7.61 K/9 is only slightly better than the league average of 7.39. (3) His 1.25 WHIP is only slightly ahead of the league average as well (1.31). He’s solid, but you can put the ticker tape parade on hold.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde meet Jason Kipnis. Everyone’s fantasy darling at second base hit the All-Star break with a .277-11-49-53-20 line. In the 52 games since he has hit .216 with three homers, 18 RBIs, 21 runs scored and just seven steals in 13 attempts. He’s gone from being Ian Kinsler to Ronny Cedeno.

Lance Lynn stepped into the rotation for an injured Jake Westbrook an allowed one run over six innings Thursday (Westbook could still miss a couple more weeks of action so Lynn may see a start or two more down the stretch). With the effort he lowered his ERA to 3.95 on the season while picking up his 15th win. He’s been a remarkable waiver-wire add this year even if he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last 54.1 innings.

Joe Nathan blew it on Friday night as he allowed three runs without getting an out for the Rangers.  He only has a 2.83 ERA, 10.99 K/9 and 30 saves in 32 chances. Loser.

I saw Raiders of the Lost Ark last night in IMAX. Pretty amazing I must say. It’s the first time I’ve seen it in the theaters – I was an HBO junkie as a kid. The film holds up really well with the passage of some 30 years.

It’s way too little, way too late, but Michael Young has finally started to hit a bit. In 12 games in September he has posted three homers and 10 RBIs. Too little too late as I stated, but maybe he can give ya something down the stretch.

HITTERS – FRIDAY
Carlos Lee vs. Bronson Arroyo: .321-3-11 in 53 at-bats
Evan Longoria vs. CC Sabathia: .378-5-9 in 37 at-bats
Vernon Wells vs. Brice Chen: .333-3-7 in 21 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY
Robinson Cano vs. James Shields: .417-4-12 in 72 at-bats
Casey Kotchman vs. Anibal Sanchez:  .471-1-3 in 17 at-bats
Michael Young vs. Jason Vargas: .400-1-6 in 30 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY
Aaron Laffey vs Red Sox: .230/.302/.287 in 87 at-bats
Chris Sale vs. Twins: .183/.231/.283 in 60 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: .207/.292/.319 in 116 at-bats
Shaun Marcum vs. Nets: .196/.281/.301 in 56 at-bats

By Ray Flowers

The Old, The Young and The Pretty

Chris Carpenter was traded. Tommy Hanson has a concussion. Matt Moore won’t have an innings pitched limit. The Dodgers named their closer, an it’s not who you think. Raul Ibanez is a Yankee. Katharine McPhee is… well you have to keep reading for that.

RHP Chris Carpenter was traded to the Red Sox today. I know, crazy isn’t it? Oh wait, we’re talking about the 26 year old former Cub, not the Cy Young winning Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. How made are you at me right now?

Tommy Hanson, who is attempting to return from shoulder woes, has reworked his mechanics to take better advantage of his lower half (i.e. his legs). While that sounds like a good thing, mechanical alterations for pitcher’s always make me a bit nervous. Now we get word that Hanson was involved in a car accident yesterday and that he received a Grade 1 concussion that will likely preclude him from doing anything for a few days. I know it’s early, but are you getting the unsettling feeling that things may not go Hanson’s way this year?

Raul Ibanez signed a one year deal for $1.1 million to join the Yankees. The 39 year old Ibanez is nothing more than an AL-only play at this stage of his career. The expectation at this point is that he will form a solid DH duo with Andruw Jones. If we combine the 2011 production of Jones against lefties and Ibanez against righties the result would be a “player” who produced the following 5×5 line: .263-24-85-36-2. The homer and RBI production is solid, but what is it with these guys aversion to crossing home plate?

Ever do situps first thing in the morning? I tried it today, an I gotta tell ya, not a huge fan. Of course, I have to keep the temple that is my body in shape, so I did it anyway while reading the newspaper (yeah I’m one of those dinosaurs who actually gets a newspaper).

Don Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times Tuesday that “I’m going into camp thinking Javy Guerra is the guy.” Of course he meant the 9th inning arm for the Dodgers. I know that Kenley Jansen has a huge arm, and I’m a big proponent of the record setting fireballer (see the October 6th Around the Horn), but Guerra did stabilize a Dodgers’ bullpen that was a disaster last year and in the process he only blew two of 23 save chances. With the announcement today I wonder if people will change their drafting strategy since Jansen’s ADP is 176, roughly 60 picks ahead of Guerra (233) – numbers are from MockDraftCentral.

Big news out of the Rays camp Tuesday is that the club will not have an innings pitched limit for phenom Matt Moore. Executive VP Andrew Friedman said that the arm of Moore has been “built up in a pretty systematic way” which would seem to signal that he could be allowed to toss 200-innings this year. The Rays have certainly shown the ability to develop pitching over the years so I’m inclined to trust them here. If Moore does throw 200 innings he’ll finish the year as a top-10 AL strikeout arm who could live up the billing that has his current ADP sitting at 102.4.

Manny Ramirez will arrive at Athletics camp on Friday. He’ll make $306,000 on his pro-rated contract which tells you that he really is intent on returning to the game because a guy who has made nearly $207 million in his career certainly doesn’t need a few more bucks. He’s an AL-only grab, but he did hit .298 with a .870 OPS in 90 games in 2010 so he might be worth a reserve round add.

I admit it, I’ve watched the first two episodes of Smash (albeit with the controller in my hand to fast forward the slow parts). I know that Katharine McPhee never really made it as a singer, but something about her persona on screen is certainly enticing.

Johan Santana is throwing without pain, an everyone is getting excited. Let me say it again – don’t be one of that group.  He’s coming back off major shoulder surgery and his performance has dipped year over year the past few seasons. Let him be a headache for someone else.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 6, 2011

The season might be wrapping up, but there are still fantasy championships to be won. At the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account people continually send in questions in search of answers. Hopefully my answers are helpful.

I’m so sick of Tim Stauffer. If I hadn’t reached my season acquisition limit I would never have him pitching.
– @iamfantasyking

Perception is a witch (you know what word really should be there).

I’ll grant you that two of the last five times that Stauffer has taken the hill he has gotten lit up (16 ER in a mere 4.2 innings), and that would kill anyone’s fantasy squad. Hell, the guys seen his ERA go up a full run over his last 10 outings. Who wouldn’t be ticked off? Still, I’m gonna say it’s been a successful season, and so should you.

Stauffer had never made more than 14 starts in a season his big league career and he’s up to 29 this season. That’s led to 173.2 innings, more than double his previous career best of 82.2 innings. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he owns a 3.97 ERA. This season his ERA, despite his recent downturn is 3.83. Give him a check mark here.

For his career he has a 1.32 WHIP. This season his WHIP is 1.27. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his K/9 mark is 6.11. This season his K/9 mark is 6.06. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his BB/9 mark is 3.08. This season his BB/9 mark is 2.64. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his HR/9 mark is 0.98. This season his HR/9 mark is 1.04. Give him a check mark here.

For his career his GB/FB ratio is 1.49. This season his GB/FB mark is 1.83. Give him a check mark here.

The point should be obvious. Stauffer has been the same pitcher he has always been, just over twice as many innings as normal. In my mind, that means he has had a successful season (especially when you consider things like the fact that he has a better ERA than Chris Carpenter and Zack Greinke while posting a better WHIP than Matt Garza and Wandy Rodriguez). The timing of his recent struggles is horrible for those fighting for a fantasy championship, but in totality Stauffer has pitched pretty darn well this season.

Is Steve Cishek worth it for saves while not blowing up WHIP/ERA or is Jonny Venters a better options for cheap wins?
– @Chaka606

The Marlins’ closer, Leo Nunez, has decided to suck wind for the second straight season in the second half. Nunez has seen his 3.51 first half ERA jump to 6.38 (he’s allowed 11 ER in his last 10.2 innings), and his BAA go from .221 to .307 since the All-Star break. Oddly, he’s only walked three batters in 20 outings, but he’s been bit by the long ball allowing four homers. As a result he has three saves in his last 11 outings while he has also blown three chances. His last save was August 16th. Cishek has picked up two saves in his last four outings as he gains a foothold in the 9th, and on the year he has a 1.24 WHIP and 47 Ks in 45.1 innings. However, he too has hit a bit of speed bump of late allowing six hits, three walks and four runs in his last 4.1 innings.

Venters continues to be an astronomically effective setup man who picks up the odd save (five on the year). He’s also vultured six victories against one loss. However, it’s his ratios that really stand out. On the year, and we’re talking 77.2 innings, Venters has a 1.39 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .160 BAA and 87 punchouts. That level of production just isn’t seen by anyone other than the elites in the game. To be quiet honest, his performance this year is superior to all but a handful of closers in the game – if that. He’s been flat out amazing.

All of that analysis misses the point. Wins are hard enough to predict for starting pitchers, in fact I would argue that no one can effectively predict them. As for wins from a reliever, you’re better off trying to guess how many times a day that everyone in the world sneezes. There is certainly no way to predict wins from a reliever, and you certainly shouldn’t add one trying to add to the win column for your team.

Secondly, the worry about blowing up your WHIP or ERA at this point of a season, if we are talking about relievers, is negligible at best. Let’s say your team has thrown 1,200 innings and it has allowed 450 runs leading to an ERA of 3.38. We can agree that the last month of work from Nunez is about as bad as it gets, right? So let’s add in 11 runs and 10.2 innings to the mix to give us 1,210 innings and 461 runs allowed. The result is a 3.43 ERA. I’m not saying that isn’t enough of a downturn to lose you a spot or two in your standings, but how often do relievers allow a run an inning over 10 innings? Not often is the correct answer, and with less than a month left in the regular season, it will be tough for most relievers to toss more than 10 innings the rest of the way.

The bottom line is that you needn’t worry too much about any reliever crashing your ratios at this point of the season.

Jeff Niemann or Doug Fister going forward?
– @MoonSetGallery

In 19 starts for the Rays this year Jeff Neimann has posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s also picked up a victory in five of his last seven outings. However, he’s started to allow a lot of homers, seven in his last seven outings, while his ERA is up to 4.01 in that stretch. That’s still a passable number of course, and his 3.03 K/BB ratio for the year says it isn’t all smoke and mirrors as he’s posting three year bests in K/9 (7.00) and BB/9 (2.31). His GB/FB ratio is also a career best at 1.27. All of that says that his current level of production could be sustainable.

Fister has been a solid pitcher in his big league career with a 3.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but the prevailing wisdom was that his production would take a slight dip outside of Safeco which so heavily favors the pitcher. That assumption has been wrong as Fister has taken off since he joined the Tigers. One of the biggest reasons is that his run support, which was under two runs with the Mariners, is approaching 4.7 in his seven starts with the Tigers. It’s also helped that in his seven outings he’s allowed more than two earned runs only once leading to a 4-1 record, 2.64 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s actually pitching like a new man with his new team (how appropriate). In addition to all of that just mentioned goodness, Fister has walked three batters in 44.1 innings. Three. That’s led to a BB/9 mark of 0.61. That mark was 1.97 in Seattle. He’s also struck out more batters with a 7.31 per nine mark compared to his 5.49 mark with the Mariners.

We may only be talking about a month plus of work, but Fister is performing at a near elite level since he joined the Tigers so ride that wave until his season hits the beach.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: June 21, 2011

photo © 2008 Rich Anderson | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

If you had to pick one would you choose Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson?
– @we3kings00

Carpenter has frustrated everyone who owns him. Four times in his past 10 starts he has allowed at least 10 hits, and five times in that stretch at least four earned runs have crossed the plate leading to a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the year. However, I still see positives here, and I was writing about them all the way back on May 12th in Buy or Sell – NL Version. Here is why I’m still bullish on Carpenter.

(1) His K/9 rate is 7.11. That would be a five year high.

(2) His fastball velocity is 92.3 mph, higher than the 91.4 from 2010 and better than his career 91.6 mph mark. It doesn’t seem like he is injured.

(3) His BB/9 rate is 2.19, nearly a half a batter below his career 2.59 mark. As a result, his K/BB ratio is 3.25 which would be his second best mark in five years.

(4) His HR/9 mark is 0.91 and his HR/F mark 10.1. His career rates are 0.92 and 10.3.

(5) His xFIP is 3.34 and his career mark is 3.41.

So why is he struggling? He’s currently allowing his fewest grounders since 2002 leading to a 1.44 GB/FB ratio that is well below his 1.78 career mark. He’s also been battered to the tune of a 23.4 percent line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. Given that Carpenter owns a 19.1 career line drive rate and a .297 BABIP, it would seem like he’s probably due some regression. Also, his current left on base percentage of 67.5 percent would be his first time under 71.7 percent since 2000 (minus his six inning 2007 season).

Hudson twirled a gem Monday to even his record at 6-6. People get so fixated on one thing at times, and with Hudson it was his 4.08 ERA heading into the outing. With eight shutout innings that mark has now dipped to 3.73. Hudson also has a superb 1.09 WHIP. Is that surprising? Hardly, not when you consider that Hudson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career. If we remove his 2009 season when he hurled only 42.1 innings because of injury, here is what we find.

Hudson has won at least 11 games in each of his 11 full seasons.

Hudson has posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice in 11 years. Nine times that mark has been under 3.65.

Hudson has posted a WHIP below 1.27 eight times.

Hudson is as consistent as any hurler in the game over the past decade plus, and his only real failing is that he doesn’t strike batters out (he’s punched out more than six batters per nine only once in seven years).

Both pitchers are solid veteran arms that should have plenty of value the rest of the way. Hudson might be the “safer” option, but I’d still choose Carpenter who offers more upside in the strikeout category, not to mention that I think his ratios also have a good shot at improving the ROTW.

Should I deal Stephen Drew and Jordan Walden to get Hanley Ramirez?
– @noneedforreason

What do you do with an injured player? It’s a question that is at the fore of everyone’s minds. Think of it. Of the top-25 players coming into the year, here are the guys who have been on the DL: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez. It’s been simply amazing.

Ramirez is back for the Marlins, but he’s still not playing day games after night games because of his wonky back, and he’s also been dropped to sixth in the batting order. It really does no good to analyze his work to this point since it’s so clearly been inferior to his career levels in pretty much every conceivable way. With his continued struggles to get healthy, it’s a fair question to ask if he will be able to flash his elite skills this season, and even if he does, how long will it take him to get there?

I dislike making deals in which I give away the “best” player in the group. I also dislike making deals in which I give up an elite player. However, at this point, I wouldn’t look down my nose at someone who took Drew and Walden for Hanley, especially if that club could use help in the bullpen. I’d like to see if I could get more because HanRam is still an elite talent, but I would understand why someone would make a move. Given that, I’d probably end up withdrawing this offer leaving Hanley on the other squad.

Jon Jay looks like he’s gonna play every, so Jay or Angel Pagan as 4th outfielder until Albert Pujols gets back?
– @metsthoughts

Jay has hit .304 with eight homer, 41 RBI, 64 runs scored and seven steals in 450 big league at-bats. Clearly he has the bat to garner significant work in the big leagues. However, he’s never been a big homer bat, his high was 12 in 2008, and that will not change if he continues to operate with a 1.97 GB/FB ratio which is his career mark (that number is through the roof this season at 3.21). While he will steal the odd base, Jay’s not likely to challenge Vince Coleman’s team records for thefts.

Pagan snuck into the top-50 overall last year with a wonderful 5×5 line of .290-11-69-80-37. He’s not going to match those totals this season after a slow, injury filled start, but he’s cranked things up in June hitting .297 with 11 RBI and five steals, production that mirrors his level from last season. He’s done a great job controlling the strike zone with three more walks than punchouts, and he only figures to see his totals improve when the Mets get back David Wright and Ike Davis from injury.

I’d take Pagan. Neither player will kill you in average, and neither has more than moderate power either, but Pagan has the wheels to easily outdistance himself from Jay.

Everyone in those 10 team mixed leagues with three starting OFs and no MI or CI are killing me.
– @BaseballGuys

Obviously this isn’t a question, and I’m quoting myself (how narcissistic is that?). Still, I just had to vent a bit. I get questions about 15 team leagues, dynasty leagues, NL-only leagues that also use the AL central (that’s not made up) etc. However, the one that really gets me is when people are asking for advice for their 10 team mixed league that starts only three outfielders and does not use middle or corner infielders. I addressed this situation recently in Player Pools where I tried to explain why 10 team mixed leagues are just too shallow.

And finally, I know it’s not a question, but I thought you would all enjoy the sentiment from @justintime56 who had an interesting take on the Albert Pujols injury…

I blame La Russa for Pujols’ injury. Should have played him @ 3B… he only needed one more start at third for eligibility.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Buy or Sell – NL Version

photo © 2008 David Ohmer | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing the National League players I’m asked about all the time (to see my AL list, click on Buy or Sell – AL Version).

* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.

Pedro Alvarez: I’m telling you, this guy will be a 30-100 man at some point of his career. You can bank on it. Every scout in the world will tell you that Pedro has an elite power bat. Now there are concerns about his ability to keep his weight under control, whether his glove is good enough for third base, and if he will ever make enough contact to be more than a .270-ish hitter, but the power is an elite tool – period. People expect so much out of youngsters anymore. I mean, this guy has 242 at-bats at Triple-A and just 455 in the majors. Are we really going to label a guy a failure based on 700 at-bats against elite level competition? Two things. (1) Ramirez has 17 homers and 71 RBI in 455 at-bats with the Pirates. (2) He’s always been a slow starter. Don’t forget that he hit six bombs with 27 RBI over his last 28 games last year so it remains wise to be patient here.
BUY

Chris Carpenter: The sky is clearly falling here. I mean the guy has been awful with one victory and a 4.32 ERA through eight starts. Oh how some numbers can deceive. Last year Carpenter posted a 3.22 ERA with a xFIP of 3.70. This year his ERA is more than a run higher, but guess what, his xFIP is lower at 3.63 (xFIP tells you what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that he can control). In each of Carpenter’s  eight seasons with at least 175.1 innings pitched his BABIP has never been higher than .309, and he owns a career mark of .297. That would seem to suggest that his current .327 mark is a bit driven by bad luck, especially since his K/9 and BB/9 marks are pretty much spot on his career levels. If you can buy low do it – the only real concern is if he can take the ball every five games.
BUY

Kyle Lohse: In seven starts this year Lohse has allowed more than one earned run just three times, and five of the seven outings its been two or fewer earned runs. Clearly he is as locked in as he could possibly be. You already know I’m going to say he can’t keep it up, right? (1) He hasn’t thrown 120 innings since 2008. (2) His current K/9 rate of 4.99 would be his worst mark since 2005. (3) He’s the owner of a 2.74 career BB/9 mark. Currently he’s at 1.72. (4) His career HR/9 mark is 1.12. He’s halved that so far at 0.52. (5) His career left on base percentage is 69.9 percent. Currently it’s 79.0 percent. I could go on and on but here’s the gist of it – Lohse is performing, across the board, at rates he has never been able to sustain. His 2.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP simply aren’t sustainable with his K/9 rate, and his lack of anything other than an average GB/FB rate of 1.19. He could continue to do this, it’s possible, but his skills and history (a decade of work) suggest now is the perfect time to sell.
SELL

Aramis Ramirez: He’s hitting .925 with a .352 OBP, numbers that are slightly better than his career marks of .282 and .340. There’s no issue there. The concern is obviously with his lack of pop since he has only one homer. Will that lack of power continue? It sure seems unlikely to. At 33 years of age his power stroke should still be there. While he’s not Adam Dunn, Ramirez is a pretty established power bat in his own right. In eight of his nine seasons in which he has accrued 450 or more at-bats Ramirez has gone deep 25 or more times (he had 18 homers in 522 at-bats in 2002). Ramirez currently has a 42.5 percent fly ball rate. Each of the past five years that mark has been 44 percent or higher. In addition to the dip in fly balls, he just isn’t converting them into bombs right now with a sickly 2.1 percent HR/F ratio. That will not continue since each of the last eight years he has produced a mark of at least 11.6 percent. I’m not giving up on Ramirez, and neither should you.
BUY

Jose Tabata: Mired in a hideous slump that has seen him got 9-for-67, Tabata’s hot start to the year is a distant memory at this point. Here’s what I see. First, Tabata has doubled his walk rate from last season helping to push his BB/K mark up to 0.74, a solid number (the big league average is usually around 0.50). I also see that he’s continued to hit the ball on the ground almost identically matching his 59.4 percent mark from last year at 60.2 percent. Given his game, that’s ideal. However, the issue is that he simply hasn’t been able to produce hits given his line drive rate of 9.7 percent. There’s no way that mark stays that low this season, no way. Last year Tabata produced a 16.1 percent mark, still slightly below average (19-20 percent), but that’s alright because his wheels will allow him to turn more grounders into hits than most. This is an ideal time to add a player with 30 steal wheels who has a reasonable chance of matching his career batting average (.283) over the next four months.
BUY

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

NL Cy and an Import

NL Cy Young Controversy?

I just don’t get it sometimes. It could be the booze or it could be the fact that I’m usually only half paying attention when I write given that I have about 867 tasks a day to complete, but how in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America name Roy Halladay the unanimous Cy Young Award winner in the NL? I admit it, I selected Halladay as my winner in the piece Who is the NL Cy Young?, but as I pointed out in that piece, Halladay’s numbers were almost matched by the Cardinals ‘Adam Wainwright. Check it out (you can access all the numbers by clicking on the link to the original piece).

Halladay had one more win than Wainwright.
Halladay’s ERA was 0.02 worse than Wainwright.
Halladay’s WHIP was 0.01 better than Wainwright.
Halladay struck out fewer batters per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay allowed more homers per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay was only 0.04 better than Wainwright in GB/FB ratio.
Halladay basically doubled Wainwright in K/BB.

I don’t know about you, but those numbers just don’t scream out unanimous selection. Like I wrote Halladay was still my choice to win the award, but I’m just shocked that no one gave a first place nod to Wainwright.

Three other notes that are everywhere but needs to be mentioned nonetheless. (1) Halladay became the 5th pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues as he joins Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry. (2) Halladay became the 7th Phillie to win the award. (3) Halladay was just the 13th unanimous choice in the NL.

Oh, and before moving on, here is an interesting note for the bridesmaid, Mr. Wainwright. Since he finished second in the Cy Young voting, his options for 2012 and 2013 will become automatically activated – as long as he doesn’t finish the 2011 season on the DL. If he can just stay healthy he will be guaranteed $9 million in ’12 and $12 million in ’13 – plus be eligible for bonuses based on his Cy Young finishes.

Kuroda Re-Signs with Dodgers

Hiroki Kuroda decided to remain with the Dodgers for at least one more season after signing a 1-year, $12 million deal (rumors are that he might return to Japan for the 2012 season which is why he signed for only one year). I find that number off since Kuroda made $13 million last season and because of the fact that Ted Lilly, also of the Dodgers, recently signed a 3-year, $33 million deal. I will say this, the 35 year old Kuroda pitched very well last season. Sure he went only 11-13, but the numbers were mighty impressive.

His 3.39 ERA was better than the 3.43 mark of Tim Lincecum.

His 196.1 innings were more than Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Sanchez to name but a few.

His 1.16 WHIP was better than Clayton Kershaw (1.18), Johan Santana (1.18) and Chris Carpenter (1.18) to name but a few.

His .243 BAA was better than Ryan Dempster (.244), Roy Halladay (.245) and Brett Myers (.248) to name but a few.

Face it, Kuroda is a solid pitcher who has shown no sign of decline as he hits his mid 30′s (for one, his K/9 rate was a career best at 7.29, well above his 6.56 career mark), even if his career record of 28-30 would lead you to another conclusion.

By Ray Flowers

Pitching on Trial

The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?

It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.

In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.

At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.

I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.

Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.

Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.

If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.

By Ray Flowers