The NL Cy Young Race

I know I wrote about this in my By The Numbers piece, but I just felt that I needed to repeat it here. The last 11 times a pitcher posted an ERA below 2.50 while striking out at least 260 batters that pitcher has won the Cy Young. So why is it that Tim Lincecum, who has struck out 261 batters while posting an ERA of 2.48, isn’t a shoe-in for the NL Cy Young award? Perhaps it is because of the fact that he won only 15 games and no hurler has ever won the Cy Young award with less than 16 victories unless he was a closer. Still, I just don’t get it. Let’s compare Lincecum to the two Cardinals hurlers who are his main competition (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright) and see how the three men who toe the rubber match up.

Lincecum: 15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261 K, 1.05 WHIP in 225.1 IP
Carpenter: 17-4, 2.24 ERA, 144 K, 1.01 WHIP in 192.2 IP
Wainwright: 19-8, 2.63 ERA, 212 K, 1.21 WHIP in 233 IP

Carpenter has the best ratios of the trio, and that will certainly weigh heavily on many voters minds. In addition, he also has the fewest loses and the best winning percentage, and with a bunch of people still operating under the assumption that wins and loses are the most important numbers on the back of a pitcher’s bubble gum card, this fact could weigh heavily on voters. However, Carpenter fell light years behind the other two in strikeouts, and he also tossed the fewest innings by a fair margin.

Wainwright leads the way with 19 victories, and he has a surprising 212 Ks. Still, his ratios are the worst of the group.

On balance, Lincecum looks great. Despite the fewest victories, he has the most Ks, by a boatload, has the second best ERA, the second best WHIP and the second most innings pitched.

Let’s take the debate one level further by looking at some other numbers.

Lincecum: 10.42 K/9, 3.84 K/BB, 0.40 HR/9, 6.71 H/9, .206 BAA
Carpenter: 6.73 K/9, 3.79 K/BB, 0.33 HR/9, 7.29 H/9, .226 BAA
Wainwright: 8.19 K/0, 3.21 KBB, 0.66 HR, 8.34 H/9, .244 BAA

Again, there is a whole lot to like about Lincecum here including a massive lead in strikeouts per nine innings as well as the fact that he was by far and away the most difficult pitcher to hit. Clearly, these categories point out that for all the good, Wainwright just wasn’t quite as amazing as the other two. For me, it’s pretty clear that it should be Lincecum, Wainwright and Carpenter in the NL Cy Young race.

Plus, be honest. Not that it should matter as the voting should be performance based, but if you say that Lincecum isn’t the single most compelling figure to take the mound every time he starts, you are fooling yourself. No one, perhaps since Pedro Martinez in his prime, has engendered more awe and interest every time he takes the hill than Lincecum. Given all that, I think it would be a crime if “The Franchise” doesn’t win the award.

As for the playoffs, here is a quick note on another fine NL starting pitcher.

The Phillies continue to look like genius’ for having made the move to acquire Cliff Lee at the trade deadline. In Game 1 of the playoffs against the Rockies, Lee hurled a complete game in his first post-season experience as the Phils emerged with the victory by the scored of 5-1. At one point Lee retired 19-straight batters and it wasn’t until the ninth inning that the Rockies could push a run across the dish. Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 12 regular season starts, but he will earn his paycheck this post-season. The best news? Perhaps it was the complete game that spared the Phils from having their manager blow the game by pitching Brad Lidge in some pressure packed situation.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday's Thoughts

Today I’m going with some short hitting, somewhat irreverent comments about a handful of players around the diamond. So, giddy-up.

Ryan Braun got yet another MRI, this one on his sore back. There is nothing structurally wrong with his body according to the test, so the hope is that he will be able to work through the aches and pains. There is no truth to the rumor that Braun’s body functions like a giant magnet after all his early season tests.

Chris Carpenter played catch on Monday. Whoopie. You know you are an injured mess when that is news. I played catch with my buddies son over the weekend. I called the San Francisco Chronicle to tell them, but they told me they didn’t have any more space on the front page to make a note. In all seriousness, Carpenter should throw off the mound this weekend, or something like that, so he is still weeks away from a possible return.

Now we know where he gets his addictions. According to an Associated Press report, Joba Chamberlain’s mother has been arrested for selling methamphetamine to an undercover cop. Man the Yankees are a mess. The only shot Joba has to avoid this becoming a nation-wide story is if the book on A-Rod takes away the press. You gotta think that Joba, for one, is glad A-Rod is his teammate right now as the A-Rod story will likely be the lead story for ESPN for probably the next, oh I don’t know, 113 days?

Tom Glavine threw off the mound on Monday and said that his left shoulder felt fine. He will likely throw another session later in the week and then will likely need a couple of minor league outings before being considered for a spot in the Braves rotation. Out of the big-3 that the Braves used to boast (including John Smoltz), how is it that Greg Maddux is the only one not trying to continue his pitching career?

David Ortiz hit a couple of line drives last night off of Phil Hughes. He still hasn’t gone deep this year (99 at-bats), but he looked pretty locked last night. He may have just turned the corner. Speaking of Hughes, how is it that a guy that throws that hard, with some decent movement as well, just can’t seem to lock it in. Maybe it’s because he wears number 65. I know the Yankees have a lot of retired numbers that are unavailable, but Hughes, you aren’t on the ice wearing skates, so pick a baseball number.

Oliver Perez will remain with the Mets and work on his control issues in the bullpen. Why? When you walk 21 batters in 21.2 innings you don’t deserve to be paid for your work, let alone rewarded with first class meals, flights and hotels in “The Show”. Man, I wish I was left-handed.

Carlos Zambrano has indeed been placed on the DL with his hamstring injury. I’m only surprised he didn’t end up on the DL earlier in the year with some sort of oblique strain considering how hard he swings the lumber. Speaking of that, who is the best hitter amongst pitchers? The list may not be limited to Zambrano and Micah Owings, but they are certainly both near the top. Here are the career numbers for each.

Zambrano: .240-17-49-55 in 512 ABs. He also has 182 K and six walks.
M. Owings: .315-5-23-17 in 130 ABs. He also has 43 K and seven walks.

Man that Owings can hit can’t he? In fact, if we get a little crazy and extrapolate his level of production over 500-AB, we end up with a batting line that any fantasy leaguer in the world would take in their outfield: .315-19-88-65 with a .894 OPS. Could we see a Rick Ankiel conversion here from the hill to the field if Owings can’t find his grove on the mound? After all, he does owns one rather average pitching line in his 279.2 inning career with a 4.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.56 K/9 and a 2.00 K/BB mark. Speaking of Ankiel, that sure was scary last night when he face planted into that wall. Thank goodness he’s OK, though he might still end up on the DL just to make sure everything is alright.

By Ray Flowers