Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key players that have started off the season really hot, but tell you what you can really expect from them the rest of the season.
NBA: Streaming players for the fantasy playoffs?
MLB: Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Coco Crisp, Wilin Rosario, Chris Heisey, Matt Harvey, Dan Straily, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson
I made an executive decision over the weekend when I was away drinking champagne and sitting in front of the fire with my friend in Carmel (she was decidedly better looking than the Peep that you see in main photo, and she is even sweeter than my sugary friend as well). I decided that every Monday I’d run through my seven main leagues that I’m doing this season and regale you with my personal FAAB decisions. Hopefully it won’t be as boring as it sounds and you’ll all be able to get something out of my personal decisions on many of the same players you will all be looking at each week.
To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.
Oh, and before I get to my moves. Remember this – IT’S EARLY. If you want to tweak your roster, fine. But one week of games is far too early to do anything rash like blowing your club up. Patience. Now where is my robe, room service and snuggle time? Am I the only one that thinks returning to the real world blows chunks sometimes?
TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): I didn’t make any moves this week. I tried to release Mike Adams for Jim Henderson but my $6 bid (out of $100) fell well short of the $13 that he went for. Chris Heisey went for $9, Jose Fernandez for $8 and Jose Valverde going for $7. No other player cost more than $3.
LABR (12 team, AL-only): Slim pickings in a league specific setup. I added Matt Lindstrom for $2 (out of $100) as I put Jeff Niemann on the DL. Other adds in a rather quiet week (I had Jose Valverde on reserve in this league and that could turn out to be huge if he gains the closer’s role): Blake Beaven ($1), Jayson Nix ($1), Eric Sogard ($6), Sam Fuld ($3), Kevin Correia ($4), Shelly Duncan ($2), Brett Cecil ($2) and Drew Smyly $13 (I bid $8 for him).
FSTA (13 team mixed): Seventeen players were added here. Part of the reason for that is that this league drafted in January which leaves many more options to add early in the year that have since our draft gained roles. Jim Henderson ($56), Jeremy Guthrie ($71), Rajai Davis ($99) were the highest adds ($1,000 budget). I added one player – Sergio Santos ($9). I put Shaun Marcum in the DL to make the move.
SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): I had to place Hanley Ramirez on the DL so I needed a middle infielder. I really wanted Eduardo Nunez, but given his biceps issue, and the fact that I couldn’t afford another injured middle infield option, I added Chris Nelson for $5 (out of my $100 budget). The big add of the week in the league was Jose Fernandez ($19) with only one other player in double-digits (Jose Valverde at $11).
SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): I didn’t make a single move in this league. This is the only league I’m in that moves can be made on a daily basis so there is no pressure to set up FAAB – you just free for all with it (which you all know I hate). There have been a ton of moves in this league – hello John Buck, Jackie Bradley and Jaime Garcia – but it’s only 11 teams and it’s a long season.
K-BAD (12 team mixed): Eleven total players were added this week. The big money guys – $1,000 budget – included Kelvin Herrera ($167), Jose Valverde ($62) and Jim Henderson ($62). Obviously trolling for saves eats up a lot of a FAAB budget as you’ve seen in many of the leagues listed here. That’s why it always makes sense to try and attach the position a week early. You could have gotta Herrera or Valverde or Henderson for a $1 a week ago. Now look what you have to spend to get the. My add of the week – I only went $32 for Henderson and $31 for Valverde since I’m not convinced either ends up leading his team in saves – was Drew Storen for $3. He’s an elite talent who is one injury or a couple of more bad outings from Rafael Soriano from working the 9th inning for the Nationals. I released Shaun Marcum.
FANBALL (13 team mixed): I added one player in this league – Jose Valverde ($3 of $100). Now I don’t love Valverde by any means, but after the Rockies decided to demote Tyler Colvin I thought I’d take a shot on adding a guy who could end up as the Tigers’ closer by the end of the month (letting go of a minor leaguer for a potential closer can’t be viewed as a bad move). If not, I’ll just use that spot to rotate weekly depending on need. In fact, only nine players were added by the 12 others in the league. The most cost add was a tied between Jim Henderson ($4) and Chris Heisey ($4). Mark Buehrle and Jeff Francoeur were dropped, two moves I have no problem with.
By Ray Flowers
I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.
To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team
And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.
A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).
To my team.
Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.
First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).
Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.
Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.
Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.
Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.
The pitching…
Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.
CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.
FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
Jay Bruce is at it again. He’s mashing. Over the past three weeks he’s hit .352 with eight homers, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored. The recent rush has pushed his season marks to .265-32-93-80-7. Last season he produced a fantasy line of .256-32-97-84-8. It might look like nothing has changed but remember that he’s had 110 fewer at-bats this season.
Speaking of the Reds, Chris Heisey is hitting .469 over his last 32 at-bats for the club from Cincy. That’s 15 hits in 32 at-bats folks. He’s been a huge boost in NL-only leagues (check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker).
Josh Johnson has looked much better in the second half as he has a 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB ratio over his last 11 starts. That’s more like it big fella.
Jed Lowrie hit 14 homers with a .799 OPS in 80 games this season. He’s joined Double-A Corpus Christi. Consider me nonplussed. The guy is a walking injury and his performance is always up and down, up and down. I’ve never been a huge fan despite the obvious skills.
Joe Nathan has been nails the past three weeks. In that time he has struck out 11 batters, without issuing a single free pass, as he’s picked up seven saves in eight outings. Actually, Nathan has been killing it all year long. Not only does he have a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he’s also struck out 10.76 batters per nine innings this season while striking out 8.13 batters for every walk. Oh yeah, he’s also 30 for 31 in converting save chances. Obviously his arm is all the way back.
Chris Perez called out the Indians for being cheap. “They (the Tigers) are spending money. He (Mike Ilitch the Tigers owner) wants to win. Even when the economy was down (in Detroit), he spent money. He’s got a team to show for it. You get what you pay for in baseball. Sometimes you don’t. But most of the time you do.” Can’t disagree with the sentiment Mr. Perez, but it might be wise to put your house on the market because if I’m the owner of the Indians you’re on your way out this offseason since you clearly don’t want to be in Cleveland.
I know it’s hard to believe, but Kurt Suzuki has actually looked like a big league hitter since he joined the Nationals. He’s hit .266 with three homers, 13 RBIs an a .742 OPS over 22 games.
Mike Trout, and save the hate email people as I’m just pointing out a fact, is hitting .275 over his last 33 games. It would be advisable for you to spend a few moments reading Ron Shandler’s recent article on Trout as well.
Shane Victorino has not performed up to par with the Dodgers. He’s stolen eight bags in 32 games which is a fine pace of course, but he’s hitting just .254 with one homer and a .651 OPS in the blue and white. I’d expect him to perform better in the month of September.
Tom Wilhelmsen leads baseball with eight saves the past three weeks. Yet again we have proof that you don’t have to spend early draft picks or lost of cash on closers on draft day. On the year Tom has 24 saves in 27 opportunities for the Mariners. He’ also struck out 73 batters in 66.1 innings while posting solid ratios (2.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
HITTERS – FRIDAY
Evan Longoria vs. Derek Holland: .421-2-6 in 19 at-bats
Juan Pierre vs. Jeff Francis: .429 with 18 hits in 42 at-bats
David Ross vs. Jonathon Niese: .462-1-8 in only 13 at-bats
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: .472 in 53 at-bats
Adam Jones vs. CC Sabathia: .342-3-10 in 38 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Bruce Chen: .424-2-4 in 33 at-bats
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
A.J. Burnett vs. Cubs: .179/.256/.192 in 78 at-bats. 1 RBI allowed.
Francisco Liriano vs. Royals: .239/.302/.316 in 117 at-bats
Luis Mendoza vs. White Sox: .230/.312/.388 in 152 at-bats
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Bronson Arroyo vs. Astros: .180/.198/.270 in 100 at-bats.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Pirates: .149/.231/.234 in 47 at-bats
C.J. Wilson vs. Tigers: .240/.324/.323 in 96 at-bats. Zero HRs.
DAILY JOUST CONTESTS
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By Ray Flowers
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss cheap draft day hitters that are off to a great start on the young season. They will tell you what which of these guys to believe in, and which guys to wait on.
J.D. Martinez, Raul Ibanez, Jordan Schafer, David Freese, Omar Infante, Zack Cozart and Brett Lawrie (who has stunk so far, though it’s still early of course).
Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.
Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.
Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.
Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).
Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.
Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.
For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.
How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing
Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings
How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.
One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings
Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings
What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.
Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
