Zambrano Headed to Florida

Are you read for it? By “it” I’m referring to the combustible mix that the Marlins have in store for the 2012 season. They added the over-the-top Ozzie Guillen to manage the club, and now they’ve added the most volatile pitcher in baseball in Carlos Zambrano (for more on Zambrano and his “blow ups” see this Miami Herald piece). Get your bomb shelters stocked with canned goods Marlins’ fans.

The Deal
Cubs Receive: Chris Volstad
Marlins Receive: Carlos Zambrano and $15 million*

(*Reports have suggested that number could approach $16 million of the $18 million that Zambrano is due in 2012. Carlos also agreed to waive his $19.25 million option for 2013).

Carlos Zambrano
The Marlins dealt away a legitimate big league arm but got Zambrano back for a few million dollars thanks to the Cubs willingness to pay virtually his whole 2012 salary. Why did the Marlins make the move? “Going back to Ozzie – and I hate to put it all on him – he just feels really comfortable that the kid is going to do well here,” GM Larry Beinfest said. “Ozzie feels very confident in him. He’s confident he can help him.” Can he? It’s questionable whether anyone can help Zambrano, but what does Guillen have to work with in Big Z?

From 2003-07 Zambrano threw at least 200-innings each season. That number dipped to 188.2 in 2008, 169.1 in 2009 and then 129.2 in 2010 as his issues started to pile up. He tossed 145.2 innings in the bigs in 2011, and though he has a lot of mileage on his arm, it’s pretty shocking to think that he won’t be 31 until June. Of bigger concern than his age is the fact that he has lost about two mph off his heater the past couple of seasons. He’s still averaging 90 mph on the gun, but he’s apparently lost that little extra that made him a bigger strikeout threat.

In 2011 we saw a positive and negative trend with Zambrano . His walk rate was 3.46, a three year best, and more than half a batter better than his 4.05 career mark. Throwing strikes has always been an issue for Zambrano who quite frequently ends up having to leave a start after 5.2 innings because he’s already thrown 114 pitches. On the negative side his K/9 rate dropped all the way to 6.24, a batter an a half off his career rate. Is age, wear and tear, lost velocity or poor location to blame? Perhaps all of the above? Amazingly, despite his success over the years, Zambrano’s 1.80 K/BB mark last season was the 6th straight year he has failed to post even a mediocre 2.00 K/BB ratio.

Normally able to keep the ball in the yard fairly well, Zambrano was saddled with a 1.17 HR/9 mark last season, the first time in his career that he ever finished a season with a mark over 1.00. He allowed a career-high 37.1 fly ball rate, but that’s still a league average rate, so most of the blame deserves to be placed on his 11.3 HR/F rate that was more than his combined totals in 2009 and 2010 (5.6 and 5.2 percent). No one knows for certain, but the assumption is that the new park in Florida will slightly favor the pitcher, so the move down south should benefit Zambrano an allow him to do a better job keeping the ball in the yard.

Zambrano is likely to be healthy enough to take the ball 30 times for the Marlins, and if he does that it’s quite possible that he could replicate his 2008 numbers (14 wins, 3.91 ERA, 130 Ks, 1.29 WHIP). At the same time, he has so much to prove to the entire world that you cannot draft him to reach any of those totals. Don’t draft Zambrano on name recognition alone, but when your mixed league draft hits the rounds that equate to the legal drinking age in the United States (21 years old for those of you who started drinking at 15) you can begin to ponder adding Zambrano to your roster… that is if you can handle the risk that the pick could blow up in your face.

Chris Volstad
The massive righty, he stands 6’8”, has a nice skill set to pitch at Wrigley, and by that I mean he keeps the ball down. For his career he owns an impressive 50.4 percent ground ball rate that has led to another strong number in the GB/FB category of 1.61. However, he lacks the pitch to put away batters which means he’s much more like Derek Lowe than Felix Hernandez. I’ll give Volstad credit, he did post a career best 6.36 K/9 mark last season, a half batter above his career rate, and he also cut his walk rate to a career best level in his fourth season of 2.66 per nine. But the result was still only a slightly better than average 2.39 K/BB ratio. When he gets the ball up in the zone, like most sinker ballers, he has trouble keeping it in the yard (career 1.11 HR/9), but that rate isn’t an out of control number.

Given his lack of strikeouts Volstad is more likely to be an asset in NL-only leagues. When he’s locked in he is one tough hurler to but the barrel of the bat on, but the fact is that he hasn’t shown enough consistency to this point of his career to be anything other than a moderate innings eater at the back of a rotation.

By Ray Flowers

Happy V-Day

In honor of Valentine’s Day – and for those of you who are without a sweetie don’t worry, I feel your pain – I thought I would review the big league pitchers who have last names that start with “V.” I know, how original right? Here are my thoughts on their value for 2011.

Jose Valverde, Tigers: Consistently going off the board as a top-12 closing option, Valverde has at least 25 saves in each of the past four seasons – something only five others have done (Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Cordero, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez). Valverde also has more K’s than innings pitched in his career (533 in 449) while posting a WHIP under 1.20 in each of the past four years. Injuries are always a concern, as is his explosive personality, but the guy still brings it (career .205 batting average against).

Jason Vargas, Mariners: This hurler had a solid set of ratios last year with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 192.2 innings, helping many a club to win a fantasy championship given that he was a waiver-wire pickup. At the same time, a repeat seems unlikely. His K/9 rate was just 5.42 leading to a slightly below average 2.15 K/BB mark (league in 2010: 2.17), and his 0.77 GB/FB ratio is a concern. That last mark troubles me. Somehow Vargas allowed 47 percent of batted balls to go skyward, a high mark. If that happens again, he’ll have no shot keeping his HR/9 mark below 1.00 (it was 0.84). Look at it this way – his HR/F rate last year was 6.1 percent, this after 3-straight years of at least 11.7 percent. Tread carefully.

Javier Vazquez, Marlins: He was never going to have success in the pressure cooker with the Yankees, or in the American League. Will he rebound from his 10-10, 5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP now that he is back in the NL? I think he has to considering that he owns a career ERA of 4.26 and a WHIP of 1.26. However, I’m concerned that his K/9 dropped to 6.92, the first time its been below 8.00 since 2004 (when he was also with the Yankees). Add in the fact that his average fastball dipped below 91 mph for the first time since 2004 (it was 88.7) and that his BB/9 rate was 3.72 (career 2.42), and I’m not expecting a full rebound, just a moderate one.

Jonny Venters, Braves: Most assume that Craig Kimbrel will open the year as the closer for the Braves, but Venters figures to be heavily involved in the late innings. Venters, a lefty, dominated as a rookie last year with a 10.08 K/9 mark, though he needs to work on the walks (4.23 per nine). If he can cut down the walks while maintaining his insanely high 4.15 GB/FB ratio, he’ll be a late inning ace for years to come.

Justin Verlander, Tigers: An ace, it would be a surprise if he fell outside the top-15 amongst starters and the top-75 overall. Verlander has been a complete beast the last two years after a bit of a hiccup in 2008 as he has 37 wins (4th in baseball), 488 strikeouts (2nd in baseball behind Tim Lincecum’s 492), a 9.46 K/9 mark (6th in baseball) and a 3.41 ERA (22nd in baseball). Told you he was a stud.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: He reportedly turned down a 4-year deal because he didn’t think the Reds offered enough money (he is playing on a $1.6 million 1-year deal). While he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, there continue to be concerns about his ability to throw strikes (he has a walk per nine rate well in excess of five the past two years). His arm is dynamic, he’ll strike out a guy per inning, and if he throws strikes we already know what the upside looks like (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206 Ks in 196 IP in 2008).

Chris Volstad, Marlins: One game over .500 (27-26) over nearly 420 career innings, Volstad is a ground ball hurler who depends on his defense and the ball ending up in his fielder’s gloves. He won’t strike out many (5.62 K/9 career), his walk rate is merely average (3.33 per nine), his HR/9 mark is average (1.05) as is his BABIP (.289 in his career). That’s a whole lot of average. Volstad can eat innings, and he is still young, but there is little in his pitching line that suggests he will ever be a top echelon arm.