2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball: Player Volatility

Sometimes people miss the point. We’re all guilty of this (even the great Oracle isn’t always understanding of everything that is presented to him). In this piece I thought I would try to explain a few things that might be missed when people look at players and try to discern what is going on with their value.

There is no certainty in baseball. Yes Albert Pujols always hits 30 homers with 99 RBIs (has every year from 2001-12). Some day that run will end, just like it has for a guy like Mark Teixeira who went 30-100 each year from 2004-11 before injuries limited him to 24 homers and 84 RBIs last year in 123 games (he’s not likely to get there this season either due to his wrist injury). Injuries play a huge part in whether or not players live up to expectations.

A player’s personal life can impact his game. Did he sleep well? Did he get in a fight with his wife? Is his kid sick? Did his lawyer steal money from him? Players are people too and they are all dealing with the same things we all do on a daily basis.

Hopefully all of those things were obvious to you. Now let’s dig a little deeper into some other points that are often overlooked.

Wins and loses, and I say this all the time, come and go. Cliff Lee was a top-15 starting pitcher last year in terms of his skills, but he won six games with a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Ricky Nolasco won twice as many games, 12, and his ratios were 4.48 and 1.37. There’s just no way to know how the record will play out. I think most folks get this one.

What about saves? As I’ve noted elsewhere, the man who leads baseball in saves the past three years – Jose Valverde – doesn’t even have a team to call home right now. Moreover, only three men in baseball have had 20 saves each of the past four seasons (Valverde, Huston Street and Jonathan Papelbon). Are you really sure you can predict which closers are “locks?” I think most folks get this one too.

What about homers? A guy goes from 30 homers to 20 and people freak out. Would it surprise you to learn that both numbers fall within the realm of imminently possible for a 25 homer hitter. Think about it. That’s a +5 or a (-5) in either direction. That 25 homer guy hits 30 one year and 20 the next his two year average is… what do you know, 25. Take the case of Nick Swisher. Over the past seven seasons he has averaged 27 homers a season with a high of 35 and a low of 22. That’s a spread of 13 which, if you divide by two gives you 6.5. Add that to 22 and your at 28.5. Subtract it from 35 and you’re at 28.5. Take a look at his year marks while keeping in mind two things, (1) that 27 average homer mark a season and (2) he is about as consistent a bat as there is in the game: 35, 22, 24, 29, 29, 23 and 24. Another way to look at his situation is to saw that he has FAILED to reach his seven year average four times in the past seven years.

What about batting average? This one is a tough to understand for some folks. We can talk about BABIP and line drive rates all we want, but let’s keep things simple and take a look at Dexter Fowler. In 2010 he hit .260 and people were disappointed. In 2011 he hit .266 and people were disappointed. In 2012 he hit .300 and people were happy. As I noted we can point to the .390 BABIP as a major reason his average went up, but there is also this – what about random luck/chance?

In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 460 at-bats a season. He had 454 at-bats in 2012, a virtually identical mark.

In 2010-11 Fowler averaged 121 hits a season. In 2012 he had 136 hits.

Fowler obviously had 15 more hits last season than his average the previous two years. The baseball season is 26 weeks long. That means in 2012 Fowler had an average of 0.58 more hits a week than he did the previous two seasons. That’s it folks. Barely half a hit difference per week over the course of the season led to Fowler’s average going up almost .040 points. Forty. A grounder off the tip of a glove here. A bad break by an outfielder on a ball hit in the gap. Hitting the ball an eighth of an inch lower on the barrel of the bat there. Barely half a hit a week over the course of the season changed his average by nearly .040 points. The point is that a .280 hitter could just as easily hit .260 as he could .300, even if you don’t want to hear or accept that fact. Remember that when you bail on a guy because his average dropped the previous season. Don’t just discount a guy until you do some digging to find out what is really going on with him.

In closing hopefully something in this piece resonated with you. We focus on numbers in baseball, especially in fantasy baseball, but sometimes the raw number don’t tell the whole story.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jon Lester

From 2008-11 Jon Lester of the Red Sox was one of the best lefties in baseball. Not only that, he was actually one of the better pitchers regardless of the arm he used to chuck pitches toward the plate. During that four year run Lester won at least 15 games each season with an ERA under 3.50 with a WHIP in the 1.20′s each year. He also struck out at least 180 batters over the final three seasons. In fact, he was an elite arm if you compare him to all other hurlers in baseball over those four seasons.

His 65 wins were tied with Cliff Lee for 4th in baseball.
His 3.33 ERA was 13th in baseball (min. 600 IP).
His 8.68 K/9 mark was 8th in baseball.
His total of 784 Ks was 8th in baseball.
His total of 813.1 innings was 18th in baseball.

Give that track record of success, and the fact that he was just 28 years old last season, what can explain his disastrous ’12 campaign that was by far the worst of his career? We’ll investigate.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Lester bombed last season, worse than anyone could have imagined. His record reversed itself, he went 9-14, his ERA exploded to a career worst 4.82, his WHIP shot up to 1.38 and his K mark fell to 166 (a four year low). One of the few positives was that he continued to take the ball every five games as he made 33 starts covering 205.1 innings. So why the downturn in production from a guy who appeared to be lined up to have a lot of success in 2012?

Lester has been an impressive strikeout arm with 225 Ks in back-to-back seasons in 2009-10. That number dipped a bit in 2011 as his 9.80 K/9 mark from 2009-10 fell to 8.55. That number further regressed last year falling to 7.28. Did he suffer a velocity dip? Nope. His fastball was 92.6 mph last year, a tenth above his career number. In fact, his cutter was thrown harder than ever before at 90.3 mph. He also deployed the pitches in the same manner.

Fastball 52 percent of the time (career 54 percent).
Cutter 22 percent of the time (career 21 percent).

A velocity loss doesn’t explain things.

When he threw the ball in the strike zone batters made more contact that ever before, 91 percent of the swings, though his career mark is 89 percent so it’s not a huge difference. There was also a four year high in the contact rate of batters swinging at all pitches inside/outside the strike zone at 80.4 percent, but again that only two percent above his career mark (79.3). There’s also this – Lester walked 2.98 batters per nine innings, a three year low after back-to-back seasons of a mark in the 3.50′s. He lost some K’s but also cut the walks with the result being a 2.44 K/BB ratio, right on his 2.47 career mark despite the significant decline in punchouts. Given all that data, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if his K/9 rate went back up to his career level of 8.20 as I just can’t pinpoint why the mark fell off so dramatically last year.

A few things that should normalize as well and lead to improvement.

His 22.0 percent line drive rate was a career worst (career 19.1 percent).

His .312 BABIP was a three year high and the second highest mark of the last six years.

His HR/F ratio was 13.9 percent, a career worst and well above his 10.1 percent career mark. The result was a HR/9 mark of 1.10, a five year high and well above that 0.85 career mark.

He had a 6.31 ERA and 1.59 WHIP at Fenway last season. For his career those marks are 3.89 and 1.36.

Lester is no longer someone you can look at with a shot to be a top-15 starting pitcher. That said, his current ADP numbers in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship barely have him listed as an SP3. Given the cost, I think Lester is going to be well worth investing in this season

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Review: Tout Wars

I stand accountable for my actions. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. Here is how things went in my first year in Tout Wars (I was in the mixed league with 15 clubs).

It all went wrong from the day the draft was held. The following three players saw me battle down to the end, it’s an action league, but ultimately I stopped bidding on all of them a dollar short (I was the runner up for each if you will): Edwin Encarnacion, Zack Greinke and Andrew McCutchen. In their place I ended up with Pablo Sandoval, Cliff Lee and B.J. Upton. Pretty understandable how I didn’t finish higher in the league isn’t it now? Speaking of Lee, I’m flabbergasted at his total of six wins. I started him every time he took the hill this year, so let’s saw he won 13 games and not six this season (his performance warranted 13 victories, at least, and he averaged 16 wins the previous four years). If I had seven more victories to my team total I would have gone from 86 wins to 93 victories. That alone would have netted me three more points in the standings and put me into 8th place overall. It’s always amazing how closely these things end up being after 162 games. If I had rostered EE, Greinke and McCutchen… I don’t even want to try and figure that out cause it would likely make me want to vomit.

Suzuki and Buck both had career worst seasons.

Carlos Lee was passable but Gaby Sanchez went from productive to the minors. Dreadful.

Chase Utley was supposed to miss about a month. He ended up playing only 83 games. Dustin Ackley played on a bad ankle all year and was terrible. At least Danny Espinosa turned out pretty damn well with 17 homers, 20 steals and 82 runs scored.

Derek Jeter was a star and a fantastic $13 investment on draft day.

Pablo Sandoval was solid when on the field. He didn’t get to even 400 at-bats though.

Nelson Cruz stayed healthy but didn’t perform to his previous levels, though surprisingly he remained relatively healthy. B.J. Upton was supposed to miss a week. Turned out to nearly be a month even though he was very impressive when on the field. Alex Rios – superstar effort for $13. Carl Crawford was thought to be good to go by May 1st at the latest. Hey, it was worth the risk as my 4th outfielder. Turns out his season was an unmitigated disaster as he had more injuries than John J. Rambo picks up when saving people in the jungle. He appeared in 31 games. Denard Span was a decent 5th OF in a 15 team mixed league, especially for $2, as he hit .283 with 17 steals.

On the hill Cliff Lee pitched very well, but couldn’t get any run support at all. Felix Hernandez wet the bed in September, but overall he had a very impressive season. John Danks, was injured and made just nine starts. Chad Billingsley was having a nice bounceback season but made 25 starts, his lowest total in five years, cause of injury. James McDonald was a fantastic reserve round add even if he too died in the second half. Oh, and Ricky Nolasco? It’s time to give up there. In the pen I had a tremendous group with Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo (I bought the duo for $7) and Kenley Jansen. However, Sergio Santos was a total bust due to injury, and literally right after Mariano Rivera was hurt and David Robertson was moved into the closing role, Robertston also came up lame. You guessed it. I also had Robertson on my staff. I could have had Romo/Clippard/Robertson/Jansen, all as closers, for a total of $13. That’s how you put together a pitcher staff without spending big dollars on closers. I finished second in the league in saves even with the injuries to Sergio Santos/Robertson and the Giants stubbornness in not using Romo as the closer until late in the year.

Missed substantial time on DL: Utley, Sandoval, Upton, Crawford, Santos, Robertson, Danks, Billingsley. When you lose that many guys in a 15 team league, it’s rough to play catchup. Not that I didn’t try considering that I had, at one time or another, 44 hitters and 25 pitchers work their way through my lineup.

CONGRATS: Cory Schwartz who won the league. Greatest celebration picture ever by the way.

FINAL RESULT: 9/15. Just wasn’t meant to be this year.

By Ray Flowers

To Sum Up

The 2012 regular season is over. Special congratulations should be handed out to Miguel Cabrera for winning the Triple Crown, and to the Orioles who made the playoffs winning 93 games a year after they lost — 93 games. To celebrate the end of the regular season I thought I would list some of my favorite tweets of the last 24 hours. You are all following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, right? If you are this will seem a bit redundant, but it’s still nice to have all the tweets in one spot. Don’t make me come looking for you in the offseason. Sign up. It’s free, hopefully entertaining, an always informative.

@BaseballGuys Will Miguel Cabrera win AL MVP? 5 times a player has won TC and not been MVP: Williams (’42, ’47), Gehrig (’34), Klein (’33) & Hornsby (’22)

@MLBStatoftheDay Since the start of play on June 4, the @Athletics own a 70-37 record – the best in @MLB.

@MLBStatoftheDay Craig Kimbrel’s 0.654 WHIP is 3rd lowest in history for a pitcher with at least 50 IP, behind Dennis Eckersley’s 0.607 in ’89 & 0.614 in ’90

@MLBStatoftheDay Chase Headley is first @Padres player since Dave Winfield in 1979 to finish the season as the NL leader in RBI.

@ESPNStatsInfo Adam Dunn struck out 222 times this yr, the most in AL history and 2nd-most in MLB history (Mark Reynolds, 223 in 2009).

@ESPNStatsInfo Fernando Rodney posted an 0.60 ERA this season, the lowest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 50 IP.

@ESPNStatsInfo Cliff Lee is the 1st pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1900) to strikeout 200 batters and have 6 or fewer wins in a season.

@Jonathan_Gantt Best pitching staff ever to not make playoffs? 2012 Rays led @MLB in ERA (3.19) and opp. avg. (.228) and led AL with 1,383 Ks.

@MikeDiGiovanna Torii Hunter pulled after two ABs, closes year with .313 average, oldest player since 1957 to hit .300 first the first time.

@STATS_MLB Curtis Granderson is the fifth Yankees outfielder to hit at least 42 home runs, joining Maris, Ruth, Mantle and DiMaggio.

@beckjason In 5 seasons of AL ball, Miguel Cabrera now owns back-to-back batting titles, 2 home run crowns and 2 RBI titles.

@Haudricourt Aramis Ramirez finishes with .300 average, 50 doubles, 27 HRs 105 RBI. Not to bad as Prince Fielder’s replacement.

@richardjustice The Athletics used 16 players in clinching the AL West. GM Billy Beane acquired 9 of the 16 in the last 10 months.

@SBerthiaumeESPN Athletics join ’06 Twins, ’51 Giants as only teams whose only day alone in 1st place was the last day of the season.

@susanslusser Athletics 1st in history to win a division or pennant when trailing by 5 games or more w/ no more than 10 games left.

@PeteAbe $103 million later, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched 668.1 innings in 6 years for the RedSox with a 4.52 ERA.

@ESPNStatsInfo Orioles are now 29-9 in one-run games. According to Elias, that’s the best win pct since 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms (14-4)

In the coming days I will start to break down players as we start the inevitable process of looking toward the 2013 season. I will also review how my teams did this year, and let’s just say I gave better advice this year to others than myself. With that I hope that everyone had a successful fantasy season in 2012. Enjoy it. Soon enough it will be time to start focusing on what lies ahead in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 18, 2012

(1) Gordon Beckham hot in September. Sign of things to come?

(2) Rob Brantly streaking for Marlins at the dish.

(3) Chase Utley to play 3B for Phillies?

(4) Cliff Lee streaking for Phillies.

(5) Martin Prado scorching with 17 hits in 10 games.

(6) Nate McLouth savior in Baltimore even if no one is noticing (see Fleaflicker)?

(7) Kevin Correia getting it done.

(8) Ike Davis to be dealt by Mets?

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Champ or Chump?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss starters so far this season and declare them a champ or chump for the next 2 weeks.

Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon, Jake Peavy, Jason Vargas, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Barry Zito, Edwin Jackson and Danny Duffy

Listen to the Audio.

* Note: Ryan Dempster was placed on the DL with a right quad strain right after this audio was recorded.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: Friday he faces Ervin Santana. Jeter is a rather amazing 17-for-38 against the righty with three homers (that’s good for a .447 average). Teammate Robinson Cano is hitting .344 with four homers in 32 at-bats against Santana.

Shin-Soo Choo: Friday he faces Luke Hochevar who he simply hammers into the Dark Ages. Choo has 13 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .565 average. In addition to all the hits, he’s doing something with them as he has four doubles, three homers and 10 RBI. Impressive.

Chipper Jones: Friday he faces Randy Wolf who he beats around like a pinata. In 53 career at-bats Jones has four bombs and 10 RBI. He’s also hitting .377 with a 1.228 OPS. It’s a great match up for Chipper. However, it seems to be an awful match up for his teammate Michael Bourn as the speedster has all of one hit in 17 at-bats against Wolf including seven punchouts.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

R.A. Dickey: Friday he faces the Phillies, a team he has had a lot of success against. In six career starts covering 38 innings, R.A. has a 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB ratio against the Fightin’ Phils.

Cliff Lee: Friday he faces the Mets. It’s only 21 innings, but the guy has a 0.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.40 K/BB ratio against the Metropolitans. He’s pretty much always money though regardless of the opposition.

Clayton Richard: Friday he faces the Dodgers, a team he has thoroughly dominated with a 2.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 45.1 innings. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, but you can’t argue with the results.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carlos Lee: Faces the often wild and tempestuous Carlos Zambrano. Lee not only has a 1.098 OPS in 67 career at-bats against Big Z, he’s also had more walks than strikeouts (eight to seven), while hitting .358 with five homers and 15 RBI.

Jhonny Peralta: Faces Gavin Floyd whom he has 10 hits in 31 at-bats against (.323). He’s also gone deep two times leading to a seven RBI. Other Tigers with success against Floyd include Ryan Raburn (.375 in 32 at-bats), though he is really struggling on the young season (.105 through five games).

Placido Polanco: Faces Jonathon Niese who he has hit .429 against in 21 at-bats. Polanco has hit four doubles helping him to a .619 SLG, and he’s driving in six runs against he Mets’ lefty.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Joe Wieland: Faces the Dodgers starting in place of the injured Dustin Mosley. The game will be played in Los Angeles, a park that has played as the 14th lowest scoring ball yard in the National League the last three years according to Park Indices (nine percent below the league average). The Dodgers as a team haven’t exactly been impressive on the early year either hitting .204 with a .306 OBP and a mere .363 SLG.

Carlos Zambrano: Faces the Astros on Saturday. Though I noted how Carlos Lee kills Zambrano, non one else on the Astros has done much of anything against him. In addition, the guy has flat out owned the ‘Stros in his career. Check out the numbers: 16-8, 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with 186 Ks in 218 innings. Basically he’s been what Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 178 Ks in 225 IP) was last season when he’s faced the Astros.

Barry Zito: Faces the Pirates in San Francisco. The Pirates are currently the worst hitting team in baseball as they are batting .199 with a .241 OBP, 293 SLG and 11 runs scored in six games. Zito is also coming off his first shutout since 2003 and he has a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates. Are you feeling lucky punk (thanks for that one Dirty Hairy)?

CONTESTS

Finally, here are two of the main contests you might be interested in (there are many other options to sign up for at Daily Joust, so don’t think you are limited to just this duo).

The $500 King Richard Survivor Tourney is on Fridays. The tournament includes 32 participants on Day 1. Then it’s paired down to 16 on Day 2, eight on Day 3 etc. Basically, the players in the top half each day move on to the next day. The winner end ups with $195, on just a $20 entry fee, and the winner is also added into the MLB Super Joust III tournament in September! Super Joust II is April 18th and has $10,000 in prizes up for grabs. If that wasn’t enough of a reason to get excited, maybe the two tickets that the winner gets to the NBA Finals will help get your blood pumping.

MLB 50/50 Survivor Tournament. A $20 entry fee gets you entered in the tournament (all other rounds free). There are five rounds, top half per round qualify for next round. Payouts by round are $5/15/25/50/100 with the final round winner getting one of the spots in the $10,000 NBA Super Joust tournament on April 18 with a shot at those two NBA Finals tickets.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers