Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Numbers

The only numbers that really matters are 2 and 0, as in the Giants 2-0 lead over the Rangers, but that isn’t going to stop me from relaying a whole host of numbers that have come to light in the 2010 World Series.

* There have been 106 World Series match-ups, and this is the 52nd time that a team has taken a 2-0 Series lead. Of the 51 previous times it occurred, the team with the 2-0 lead has won 40 times – a winning percentage of 78.4 percent. The last seven teams to go ahead 2-0 have won the Series, and 13 of the last 14 (Atlanta came back in 1996). This is the fourth time that the Giants have led a Series 2-0, and they won each of the previous three times (1922, 1933 and 1954).

* Matt Cain is a star (note to East Coasters, he has been for a while now, he didn’t just all of a sudden get good). Cain is one of only four pitchers in history to post 20 or more scoreless innings in a single postseason. Here are the others: Christy Mathewson (27 IP), Waite Hoyt (27 IP), Kenny Rogers (23 IP) and Carl Hubbell (20.0). Some more Cain knowledge. Cain is the 8th starting pitcher in postseason history who has not allowed an earned run in 3-straight starts. Cain is the fourth pitcher out of that group to do so in his first three postseason starts. Only one pitcher has ever gone 4-straight – Whitey Ford in 1960-61.

* Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz both lost their playoff hitting streaks in Game 2 at 12 games. They had become the 4th and 5th players to compile a 12-game hitting streak to open up their playoff careers. The record is 15-straight by Marquis Grissom in 1995-96.

* The Giants, going all the way back to the New York vintage, have won 47 World Series games. The only two teams with more victories are the Yankees (134) and the Cardinals (52).

* FOUR: The number of starters the Giants have used through the playoffs, and each one of them is homegrown – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, That makes the Giants the first team since the 1986 Red Sox to have a 4-man World Series rotation of entirely homegrown hurlers (Roger Clemens, Bruce Hurst, Oil Can Boyd and Al Nipper).

* The Giants don’t score seven runs very often, they were held to six or fewer runs in 141 of their previous 172 games before Game 2, but when they do score seven runs they hardly ever lose (they are 29-4). Speaking of scoring runs, here are some other amazingly relevant facts.

The Giants went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Game 2 and are now 13-for-26 in the Series.

Each of the Giants runs, all 20 of them, have come with two outs.

The Giants have scored more runs in their last 12 innings (19) than they did in winning the NLCS (17).

The Giants have scored nine runs in back-to-back World Series games, only the ninth time a team has done that in Series history.

* The heart of the Rangers lineup has been held in check. Michael Young (1-for-8), Josh Hamilton (1-for-8) and Nelson Cruz (1-for-9) are hitting a combined .120 through two games.

* Edgar Renteria, who is playing with a torn left biceps, has played 63 games at shortstop in the playoffs, second in baseball history to the 147 games of Derek Jeter. Oh, and after producing three RBI in Game 2 Renteria now has one 3-RBI game this season.

* Cliff Lee had never allowed more than three extra base hits in any playoff game. In Game 1 he allowed three doubles to Freddy Sanchez.

* TWO: The number of catchers in World Series history who have hit third in the lineup. Yogi Berra did it for the Yankees in 1947, and Buster Posey is currently doing it for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought

I’m going wild about pitching today as I point out a few pitchers who actually pitched better than you may have thought they did during the just completed 2010 season.

Scott Baker had elbow surgery this fall, but he should be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training. Should you care after he posted a 4.49 ERA for the Twins in 2010? Heck yes you should. Baker had a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best, and though he also posted a 5-year high with a 2.27 BB/9 mark, his K/BB mark was still 3.44. Toss in 148 Ks, and Baker was one of just eight pitchers – eight – in all of baseball to have a 7.80 K/9, 3.40 K/BB, 145 or more K’s and a walk rate under 2.30 per nine. Look at the others on the list: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The eighth guy? He is another hurler I would look to buy low on in 2011, and that is James Shields. There is no way that Shields should once again lead the AL in homers allowed (34), and he certainly won’t allow another BABIP mark of .354, especially considering his career mark is just .316. You also have to factor in that Shields posted a K/9 rate of about a batter better than his career mark of 7.38 at 8.28. Guys with K/9 rates that high who also post a 3.67 K/BB mark just don’t post ERA’s over five very often (Shields was at 5.18). In fact, over the past 11 years, Shields season is one of only two by a hurler with at least an 8.20 K/9 mark, a 3.65 K/BB ratio an an ERA over 5.00. The other season like that was authored by Ricky Nolasco in 2009.

Chris Narveson just barely posted an ERA in the four’s at 4.99 over 37 appearances, including 28 starts. How in the world could he have pitched better than that number looks? Well, things clearly took a turn for the better in the second half of the year as everything simply clicked for Chris. Over his last 14 appearances, all starts, Narveson was 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That’s some seriously strong pitching. He also posted a decent 2.75 K/BB ratio as batters hit just .231 off him over those 81 innings. He’s no ace, but once the draft hits the late rounds next year, don’t forget about this Brewers’ starter.

A.J. Burnett. There, I said it, and now people are running for the exits right? Hear me out before you go pulling the alarm lever.

Burnett was terrible late in the year (3-8, 5.95 ERA over his last 15 starts), but his overall performance, other than a rather precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (6.99 in 2010, 8.23 for his career), really wasn’t awful compared to his career levels. Burnett did lose a mph off his fastball, but he was still throwing it 93 mph, so there likely wasn’t an injury. Secondly, his walk rate was 3.76, which is almost spot on his career mark of 3.78. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a three year high, but that mark was 1.09 in 2009 and 1.25 in 2007, so it wasn’t that far off his recent performance. His BABIP of .319 was a bit above his career .297 rate, but it was lower than the .328 mark he posted in 2008. His GB/FB ratio was a bit down at 1.20 (career 1.49), but it was better than his ’09 mark (1.09). And for goodness sakes, his line drive rate was a 3-year low (17.6 percent) and the second best mark in six years. Burnett will be an afterthought on draft day 2011, and I’m telling you, he has a chance to produce a nice return on investment if the cost is low enough.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.

Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

No one could have predicted this back in April. The San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers will face one another in the World Series for the first time. Not only that, this will mark the first time that two teams with World Series droughts of at least 49 years since their last championship will square off (in the case of the Rangers, they have never won a title). Here are some other interesting facts as we get ready for the final battle of the 2010 season.

* Two Rangers have hitting streaks of 11 games (every game the team has played this postseason). Nelson Cruz is batting .375 with five homers, eight RBI an a 1.294 OPS while Elvis Andrus is hitting .333 with six runs scored and seven steals for the team from the Lone Star State.

* Eleven is the number of consecutive games in this postseason that the Rangers have homered in, one short of the record of 12 set by the 2004 Astros.

* The Giants have tied the playoff record with six victories in one postseason by a single run (the 1972 Athletics pulled off the same trick). The Giants won 28 of the 52 one-run games they had during the regular season.

* Vladimir Guerrero had 115 RBI during the regular season while batting .300, but his body is no longer capable of playing everyday, especially if he is taxed by playing in the field (he played 18 games in the field this season). Therefore, the Rangers are planning on using Vlad in only one game in San Francisco in Games 1 and 2 since the DH will not be in effect.

* Josh Hamilton was the ALCS MVP after hitting .350 with four homers, but more impressive was the fact that he reached base in 15 of his 28 plate appearances (.536 OBP).

* The Rangers have never reached the World Series before while the Giants are 5-12 over the history of the franchise. However, the Giants have never won the Series while playing on the left coast as they lost in 1962 in seven games to the Yankees, in 2002 they fell in seven games to the Angels, and in 1989 they lost to the Athletics in the Series that was delayed because of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

* Cliff Lee will start Game 1 for the Rangers. He is 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts earning himself the moniker of “the” big game pitcher going (with all due respect to guys like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Andy Pettitte to name just a few).

* Bengie Molina will get a World Series ring no matter who wins. He played 61 games with the Giants before he was traded to the Rangers where he suited up for 57 games.

* Cody Ross was the NLCS MVP for the Giants after hitting three homers with five RBI an a .350 batting average in the six game victory over the Phillies. He is also working on a 7-game postseason hitting streak, the second longest in franchise history in the playoffs.

* Only two teams have won a best of seven series with each of their four victories coming by at least four runs – the 2007 Red Sox and the 2010 Rangers.

* Brian Wilson became the fourth pitcher in history to pick up a win or save in each of his teams four victories in one playoff round (he had one win and three saves). The others are Dennis Eckersley (1988 ALCS), Mitch Williams (1993 NLCS) and John Wetteland (1996 World Series).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Miss Something?

I came across a note today on Twitter, and if you aren’t following Baseball Guys on Twitter shame on you. Here is the note from the official MLB twitter feed: “Congrats to @Padres closer Heath Bell on 2010 MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award. Converted 47 of 50 save opportunities, MLB-best 94%.” Wait a second, did I miss something? What about the majors saves leader, Brian Wilson? Let’s compare the two relievers from the NL West.

Wilson had 48 saves. Bell had 47.
Wilson had a 1.81 ERA. Bell had a 1.93 ERA.
Wilson had a 1.18 WHIP. Bell had a 1.20 WHIP.
Wilson had a .220 BAA. Bell had a .221 BAA.
Wilson had an 11.21 K/9. Bell had a 11.06 K/9.
Wilson had a 3.13 BB/9. Bell had a 3.60 BB/9.
Wilson had a 3.56 K/BB. Bell had a 3.07 K/BB.
Wilson had a 86.1 LOB%. Bell had a 81.1 LOB%

Am I missing something here? Did they really erase the fact that Wilson was a better pitcher in 2010 and give Bell the award because Wilson had two more blown saves (five to three), or because he had three fewer wins (six to three)? Please tell me they didn’t. You tell me, am I off here? If I am, I just don’t see it.

Cliff Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in seven postseason starts. In those starts he has struck out 54 in 56.1 innings while walking just six batters. This season, in two starts against the Rays, he struck out 21 while not walking a single batter in 16 innings.

A.J. Burnett is slated to get a start in the ALCS against the Rangers. He was truly brutal down the stretch with a 1-7 record and 6.61 ERA over the final two months of the year. He also went 4-14 with a 6.48 ERA over the final four months of the season. On the year he went 10-15 with a 5.25 ERA, and that is the worst ERA by any Yankees’ hurler in history who tossed at least 180-innings. In history folks. So why is he starting in the playoffs? It can’t be because he had a 2.50 ERA with 17 Ks in 18 innings this season against the Rangers, can it?

Bryce Harper will see some action in the Arizona Fall League. The 17 year old, he’ll be 18 on Saturday, has been placed on the “taxi squad” of the Scottsdale Scorpions which means he will play two days a week. Despite all the hype and hoopla, Harper is likely two years away from the majors as is, and he will begin the 2011 season in Single-A. More on the phenom can be found at All Nats All the Time.

With Billy Wagner heading into retirement as the most dominant left-handed closer in big league history (I don’t care if he finished his career with two fewer saves than John Franco), the Braves will now turn to a new face in the 9th inning, an it almost certainly will be Craig Kimbrel. If you aren’t in a keeper league and don’t know who this kid is take note – the dude has absolutely filthy stuff. Kimbrel tossed 20.2 innings for the Braves this season positing a 0.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. With an average fastball over 95 mph he struggled with control walking nearly seven batters per nine innings (6.97 per nine). However it’s that heat that makes Kimbrel special, and it led to a K/9 rate this season of 17.42. If you’ve never heard of a mark that high before I understand why – it’s the highest mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 20-innings in a season. Told you he was someone you need to know for 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Perspective

It’s playoff time, and thankfully, just before a heart attack set in, the Giants dispatched the Braves to move on to the NLCS. They now face arguably the best team in baseball in the Phillies, but you have to beat the best to be the best. Here are some playoff thoughts as we head deep into October baseball.

Phillies vs. Giants

Speaking of the Phillies against the Giants, could you possibly construct a scenario more interesting than the presumed Game 1 matchup of Halladay vs. Lincecum? Let’s go to the tale of the tape.

Age, Height, Weight

Halladay: 33 years old, 6’6″, 230 lbs
Lincecum: 26 years old, 5’11″, 170 lbs

ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, BAA

Halladay: 2.44, 1.04, 7.86, 7.30, .245
Lincecum: 3.43 1.27, 9.79, 3.04, .242

Styles

Halladay: Tall, lanky and the possessor of one of the most versatile arsenals in the game, Halladay can beat you pretty much any way you can think of. If he needs a strikeout he can pick one up, and he is never going to beat himself with the free pass. When he is “on” you will be hard pressed to see someone who can control both sides of the plate any better, and he simply gets filthy movement on his pitches to constantly mess with the hitters line of site. There is no better “pitcher” in the game today.

Lincecum: He couldn’t be any different than the Phillies’ ace. While Halladay has the prototypical pitchers build and a smooth flowing motion, Lincecum is all arms and legs as he seems to propel himself plate ward with every pitch. No bigger than the guy you just ran into in line at Starbucks, Lincecum generates tremendous whip with his arm, and it allows him to hurl the ball harder than he should for a man his size. While he can certainly “pitch,” Lincecum is the type of dominating hurler that when he is “on” batters give each other high five’s if they merely manage to put the barrel on the ball.

If I had to some it up I would say this. Halladay quietly retires the side over and over while Lincecum does the same while striking fear into the hearts of batters.

It should be a wonderful matchup.

Thanks to Jeff Fletcher of AOL for the following Tweets:

* Roy Halladay- Roy Oswalt-Cole Hamels vs SF this year: 1-2, 6.12;
Tim Lincecum- Matt Cain- Jonathan Sanchez vs PHI: 2-1, 1.96
* OK, here’s one you won’t believe: Slugging pct: Phillies .413; SF Giants .408.

* Since 9/1 Phillies scored 167 runs (most in MLB), SF Giants allowed 60 runs (fewest in MLB).

Tupac or Biggie? I’ve always been a huge Tupac fan, and that will never change, but as time wears on I’ve been giving Biggie a second look and the dude is growing on me. Just thought I would throw that in there.

Rays vs. Rangers

Heading into Game 5 of the the ALDS – here is one stat line you need to keep in mind; Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA an a 0.80 WHIP in the playoffs.

The Rays hit .123 through the fifth inning of Game 3. Since then they are batting .362 with four homers in 58 ABs.

Yankees

The Yankees lost 17 of their last 26 games entering the playoffs before the went out and swept the Twins three games to none.

The Twins, they have lost 12-straight postseason games since 2004, one short of the all-time record set by the Red Sox (1986-95). The last nine loses have all come against the Bronx Bombers.

Some more bad news Twins fans? How about the fact that the Yankees have won the last four playoff matches between the clubs as they have outscored the Twinkies by the score of 69-36. That’s about as ugly as it gets.

By Ray Flowers