(1) Ryan Dempster traded or not?
(2) Ichiro now in Big Apple after trade from Mariners.
(3) Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante sent to Detroit for future ace Jacob Turner.
(4) Colby Lewis done for year – elbow surgery.
(5) Justin Smoak sent to Triple-A.
(6) Roy Halladay shaky.
(7) Jordan Zimmerman/Ryan Vogelsong = money in the bank.
By Ray Flowers
It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball with DailyJoust.com.
For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.
HITTERS – FRIDAY
Billy Butler: Guess who loves to see the mustached one, Carl Pavano, toeing the rubber? This guy. Butler has hit .429 with a 1.124 OPS against the Twins’ righty in his career, and we’re talking 21 hits in 49 at-bats making those numbers pretty imposing. Toss in two homers and nine RBI and you should be giddy with Butler in your lineup.
Chipper Jones: Around an around the wheel spins, and where it stops no one knows. Will it stop on Chipper being IN or OUT of the lineup Friday? Who knows as this situation is about as dicey as your local weather forecaster who, inevitably, somehow ends up being off by 15 degrees when they tell you what the temperature will be. If Chipper plays he has a great matchup with 13 hits in 37 at-bats, a .351 average, with two homers and six RBI against A.J. Burnett.
Hunter Pence: Paul Maholm often posses little difficulty for the elite hitters in the game, so it’s hardly a surprise that a guy like Pence has had success against the Cubs hurler. In 44 career at-bats Pence has hit .318 with two bombs and nine RBI spread out over 44 at-bats.
PITCHERS – FRIDAY
John Danks: Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting a pitcher against the Red Sox, but the team is a mess right now. No Ellsbury or Crawford, Ross has a knee issue, they’ve got the off the field turmoil, all of that would seem to make Danks a passable play. Current Sox batters have a .186 batting average against Danks, not to mention that he has a 2.82 ERA over his last 30 innings against the Red Sox.
Tommy Hanson: He’s made four starts this season an only once has he allowed more than two runs. He’s also won two of his last three decisions, and on the year he has 23 Ks in 24 innings pitched. When you toss in the gravy on top of that turkey dinner, the competition, it’s a meal you’ll want to saddle up to the table to eat. His opponent Friday is the Pirates, a team hitting .221 with 41 runs scored, 18 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.
Corey Luebke: He’s starting against the Giants, and in general, that’s usually a good thing for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two starts, and that he’s allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts to drop his ERA to 2.52 and now we’re cooking with gas. You might pause to start him when you realize the game is being played in San Francisco, but that’s only because you haven’t looked at the numbers. In his career at home he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, impressive numbers to be sure, but no match for his work on the road (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
HITTERS – SATURDAY
Orlando Hudson: Yes he is hitting .206, and he is also facing Tim Lincecum Saturday. So why in the world is he listed here as a potential play? Surprisingly, O-Dog has 10 hits in 27 at-bats against The Freak, a .370 average. Hey, if you really think that Lincecum is that awful then you don’t have a problem starting Hudson, do you?
Grady Sizemore: He is hitting .550 with three homers in 20 at-bats against Dan Haren… oh, sorry.
Paul Konerko: The White Sox first sacker, who just blasted his 400th career homer, has enjoyed a ton of success against Jon Lester who also happens to be struggling to find any consistency this year on the hill. That make Konerko, who is hitting .389 with three homers and six RBI against Lester (18 at-bats) a solid play.
Danny Valencia: Not a name you probably figured you would be reading about, but when a guy has nine hits in 18 at-bats against someone (Bruce Chen) people tend to take notice. He hasn’t taken the lefty deep but he does have five RBI and just one punchout in their matchups.
PITCHERS – SATURDAY
Colby Lewis: Not only is Lewis 3-0 against the Rays with 15 Ks in 17.1 innings in his career, he’s off to a blazing start this year with a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 Ks in 26.2 innings. He’s also not beating himself with only one free pass issued proving that he’s about as locked in as any hurler in the game right now.
Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays hurler has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the year, but only 12 strikeouts through four starts causing some people to be a bit nervous. He should be able to turn that worry on its ear given that he faces a Mariners club that he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13 innings against. He’s 2-0 against the Mariners while posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Anibal Sanchez: This righty has made five starts against the D’backs to the tune of a 3-1 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 31 Ks in 34 innings. He’s allowed only two runs in each of his three starts this year. Seems like a recipe for success, does it not?
CONTEST
Are you ready to test your fantasy baseball acumen against one of the best in the business? Well you may not ever get the chance to do that, but I can guarantee that you will have your chance to take on Ray Flowers, me, in the BaseballGuys / DailyJoust $250 Free Roll this Friday, April 27th.
There’s still time to sign up. Click on the link to participate, for Free, to win $ and to get bragging rights if you can beat me.
By Ray Flowers
When is one not one? No, I’m not operating in some alternative universe outside of the Matrix with Morpheus trying to wake me up to the truth (if you don’t get that pop culture reference you need to start seeing some movies), I’m simply asking when is one not necessarily equivalent to one? If you are interested in riddles, or just want to know what the hell I’m talking about, please read on.
AVERAGE BASES ALLOWED
Average Bases Allowed, henceforth ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher’s effectiveness and is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP), though I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP until it catches on (I’m so amenable aren’t I?). What spawned the idea of ABA? Consider the following simple comparison.
Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).
Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two innings).
So, according to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean that they were equally effective? What if we added a bit more depth to our example?
Pitcher A: Allowed a walk an a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: Allowed a walk an a home run in his two innings.
Therefore…
It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero. After all he gave up only two bases in his two innings. However, Pitcher B’s ERA was at least 4.50. Why? If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter he would have allowed two runs in two innings – hence his ERA would be 9.00, an even if it was a solo shot it would have still plated a run leading to a 4.50 ERA. So as you can plainly see, while the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the actual result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different. Because of this simple yet often overlooked fact, I went about trying to set up a way in which I could analyze a pitcher’s performances in a more equitable way. Instead of using hits and walks as does WHIP, I decided to use total bases allowed and walks (because WHIP leaves out things like hit by pitch, I made the decision to do the same with ABA). Why replace hits with total bases?
Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?
Here is the formula for ABA.
ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP
Does it not stand to reason that the pitcher who allows fewer bases to those batters who do reach base would have a better chance of limiting the amount of runs that score? Let’s take a look at a concrete example to illustrate.
In 2011 Tim Lincecum and Colby Lewis had identical WHIP’s of 1.21. Does this fact mean that they were equally effective hurlers in 2011 at limiting hitters ability to produce bases and runs? Let’s use ABA to investigate to see if we can form a more nuanced opinion between the two hurlers who had the the same WHIP last season.
Lincecum: 111 singles, 48 doubles, two triples,15 homers, 86 BBs in 217 IP
Lewis: 112 singles, 35 doubles, five triples, 35 home runs and 56 BBs in 200.1 IP
Remember, according to WHIP both pitchers were equal with a 1.21 mark. This is not the case according to ABA.
Lincecum: 273 total bases + 86 BB in 217 IP = 1.65 ABA
Lewis: 337 total bases + 56 BB in 200.1 IP = 1.96 ABA
As you can see, if you were only looking at each pitchers WHIP columns last season, you might miss the fact that Lincecum did a much better job at limiting baseball runners last season (this is also reflected in the ERA – 2.74 for Lincecum and 3.38 for Lewis). Thanks to ABA we can state that, despite equal WHIP marks, Lincecum was easily the more effective pitcher last season. All told there were five pitchers who threw at least 160-innings and posted a WHIP of 1.21. Here are the ABA mark for all five.
1.61 – Madison Bumgarner
1.65 – Tim Lincecum
1.80 – Jeff Karstens
1.83 – Hiroki Kuroda
1.96 – Colby Lewis
As you can tell, WHIP really doesn’t tell the whole story. ABA may not either, but it certainly is a much more accurate gauge of how a pitcher has performed.
Speaking of that, how in the heck to read ABA? Glad you asked. The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.
Here is a rough key you can employ for ABA.
Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major leaguer worthy of counting on in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine
So there is my brief explanation of Average Bases Allowed, or ABA. Now that you know what it is, you’ll have to read PART II where I will take a look at the hurlers who threw at least 40-innings in 2011.
To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.
By Ray Flowers
There are only a few weeks left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season, sniffle, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Of these four, who to keep: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Mike Trout? We start three outfielders and two utility.
– @TheRKG
Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI,. 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position that sports, to be kind, few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves one well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer’s keeper value in this setup as low.
Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, he’s also taken his walks leading to a .367 OBP, and he’s shown solid extra base power as well for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we’d end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homer, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.
Pineda has been as good as advertised this year. Yes he’s had a bit of a rough go of late, but he’s still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It’s not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there’s no reason to expect any fall off in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.
Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that’s saying something. The uber-talented outfielder can’t legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, and if Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, that means the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it’s nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.
I’m gonna pass on Trout – he’s not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I’d pass on Hosmer – I don’t think he’s going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it’s Ackley or Pineda. Since I’m of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitchers season, I’d settle on Ackley who could be an up the middle star as soon as next year.
Keeping Roy Halladay & Matt Kemp. Can you pick two more from Yovani Gallardo, Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, John Axford, Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz?
– @JonMize1978
Having a better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you’re in great shape there.
Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s inconsistent as all hell, but in the end, the production simply cannot be argued with (there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks – Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).
Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He’s also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season, and for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he’s batting .301 right now). He’s an elite performer at what he does.
McCann is as consolid a hitter at the catchers’ position as you’re going to find. He’s hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He’s also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI. There isn’t a more consistent power bat in the game behind the dish.
Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18th.
Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He’s also had a fantastic fantasy season as he’s hit .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years – Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.
Ortiz is having a fantastic season, he’s on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he’ll be 36 next year, has never been a paragon of physical fitness, and he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.
If I’m protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don’t trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn’t protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy go lucky attitude, but I’m not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, a truly elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.
Colby Lewis on waivers – worth a pick up?
– @Robert6286
Colby has won 12 games for the second straight year though his performance has slipped a hair (his ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). Four starts ago his ERA was 3.83 though, but he’s been hit hard over his last four outings leading to 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally I would say something like “it’s only four starts, things will even out,” and though I still believe that, we don’t have much time left this year for that stuff to even out. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.
Lewis is a solid hurler who has actually pitched slightly better in the second half of the season (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than the first (4.38 and 1.24). Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is the 17th in Seattle then the 24th at home against Seattle. You really can’t ask for two better match-ups. So do you start a pitcher with great match-ups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I’d let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Pitching is the name of the game, and you can never have too much of it. I thought I’d go around the league and take a look at a handful of pitchers that toed the rubber Wednesday night. Here are my thoughts.
Kyle Drabek: 3-4, 4.69 ERA, 45 Ks, 1.69 WHIP in 63.1 IP
The kid hit rock bottom Wednesday as he allowed four runs while getting only two outs. At this point it’s hard to trust him in an AL-only league, let alone a mixed league setup. The primary culprit has been a complete inability to throw the ball over the plate. Over his last 10 starts he’s walked less than three guys only one time, and six times he’s walked at least four batters. On the year his BB/9 rate is a ghastly 6.40. My goodness, he has two more walks than strikeouts on the campaign. The guy still has a bright future, but your a certified masochist if you’re continuing to roll him out there each start.
Daniel Hudson: 6-5, 4.22 ERA, 67 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 79 IP
Hudson has won his last three decisions, and six of his last seven for the surging D’backs. Hudson has also thrown at least six innings each of the last eight times he’s taken the hill, and six of those outings have been “quality.” Unfortunately he has been beaten around his last two outings allowing nine earned runs in 13 innings. On the plus side he allowed only a single walk in those two outings. On the year he has a solid 7.63 K/9 mark, and his 3.53 K/BB ratio also portends a lot of success when his BABIP mark recedes (it’s currently .338). See if you can use his poor last two outings to snatch him away from his current owner.
Colby Lewis: 5-5, 3.48 ERA, 55 Ks, 1.15 WHIP in 75 IP
Three weeks ago in Buy or Sell – AL Version, I suggested buying Lewis. Since that time he has posted a 1.82 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 3.43 K/BB ratio in four starts, so after a rough start to the year Lewis has totally turned things around. He isn’t walking anyone, he’s only issued 10 walks in his last seven starts, and he has thrown a “quality” start up in six of his last seven outings. Moreover, dating back to the start of last season when he returned to the States from a stay in Japan, Lewis has thrown 276 innings posting a 1.18 WHIP, the 22nd best mark in baseball for a pitcher who has tossed at least 200-innings in that time.
Brett Myers: 2-4, 4.82 ERA, 53 Ks, 1.47 WHIP in 74.2 IP
Myers had a magical season last year. Not so much this year. His trademark consistency from last year has pretty much vanished. Oh he’s throwing his innings, at least six in all but two of his 11 starts (the other two times he fell an out short), but there has been no consistency in his performance. Well that might not be fair either. He’s been consistently below average of late allowing at least four earned runs in six of his last eight outings. It’s the same old story with Myers as the culprit has been the long ball. His current mark of 1.81 is preposterously high, more than double his 0.80 mark from last season and more than half a homer more than his career rate (1.29). You have to think the homer total will regress moving forward, but even so his xFIP which normalizes for homers is just 4.24. Be wary.
Brian Matusz: 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in 5.2 IP
Matusz made his long awaited 2011 debut Wednesday night after being sidelined the first two months of the year because of an intercostal strain. Everyone is jazzed about the young lefty after his impressive second half last year that included a 7-3 record, 3.63 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last 14 starts. He could certainly replicate those numbers this season, but remember he is coming off injury, is young, and pitches in a wicked tough division – the AL East.
Javier Vazquez: 3-4, 6.02 ERA, 35 Ks, 1.54 WHIP in 58.1 IP
Vazquez has been awful for most of the season. However, he seems to have somewhat turned the corner. On May 15th, in his darkest hour, Vazquez owned a 7.55 ERA and seemed destined to lose his starting role with the Marlins. Since that time he’s made three starts, lasted at least six innings each time out, and posted an ERA of 2.84 with a WHIP of 0.79. Moreover, he’s whiffed 15 while issuing only three free passes. Problem solved eh? It’s far too early to say that, but given his track record of success, and we’re talking about more than a decades worth, perhaps this wily veteran should be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his recent work – maybe he has it in him to once again be a useful pitcher.
And one rookie who didn’t pitch Wednesday…
Jordan Lyles: 0-0, 2.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 0.71 WHIP in seven IP
The Astros top pitching prospect and #42 overall prospect according to Baseball America, Jordan had a strong first outing, a great effort actually for a guy who can’t even legally pull back on a bottle of Captain Morgan (and who doesn’t want to do that on a daily basis?). At the same time, it would be wise to keep expectations in check. Lyles is only 20 years old and has only 16 games of experience at Triple-A where he posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He knows how to pitch, and likely will have a long and successful career, but Lyles just doesn’t profile as a top of the rotation fantasy arm.
By Ray Flowers
I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing a handful of the American League players I’m asked about all the time.
* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.
Brennan Boesch: On April 28th Boesch was hitting .350. Two weeks later he is batting .298. His OPS in that time has dropped from .926 to .779. He’s also hit only one homers in his last 31 games. So are the vagaries of small sample sizes. In his career Boesch has hit .265 with 16 homers and 85 RBI in 585 at-bats, not .300-30-100 like some people seem to think he will do this year. He will not hit .300. He will not hit 30 homers. He will not have 100 RBI. In fact, if Boesch were to match his career .265-16-85 line I’d be pleasantly surprised. He’s murdering lefites with a .387/.459/.548 line in 30 at-bats, but in 90 at-bats against righties is once again looking no different than an average big league hitter (.267/.320/.378).
SELL
Zach Britton: It’s getting harder to write off his hot start with each successive successful start. Seven starts into his big league career only once has he allowed more than three earned runs, and the result is an impressive 2.93 ERA. He certainly gets a ton of ground balls, nearly 55 percent of batted balls, but I still worry about his poor K/9 rate of 5.02, and his completely average 3.35 BB/9 mark. Sooner or later you have to think that his 1.50 K/BB ratio will catch up to him, especially when his hit rate goes up (his current BABIP is .236). In addition, his left on base percentage is 81.1 percent, well in excess of the big league average of 70 percent. Toss in the fact that his xFIP (3.97) says his ERA “should” be a full run higher than it current is, and you’d be smart to see what you could get for Britton if you sold him off.
SELL
Colby Lewis: On April 5th, when his ERA was 6.95, everyone thought this guy was a one year wonder and waiver-wire fodder. However, over his last three outings, Lewis has 17 Ks and three walks, has gone at least 7.1 innings in each outing, and is sporting a 2.31 ERA in that trio of starts. The strikeout rate still has some room to grow since it’s barely over six, in fact I’d be pretty darn surprised if it didn’t, and once that ridiculous HR/9 mark of 2.38 regresses, and it will, his ERA should stand a solid chance of creeping back below four (it’s currently 4.57). He gives up too many fly balls, not a great match for his ballpark, but we saw last season how he could overcome that foible.
BUY
Jed Lowrie: Everyone’s darling after a hot start to the year. He looks to be locked into every day playing time with Marco Scutaro on the shelf, so he is a must start in mixed leagues, right? Well, maybe. Lowrie hasn’t hit a homer since April 20th (19 games) and since April 22nd he has only four RBI in 17 games. He also hasn’t stolen a base all year, and though we all knew his average would fall – he’s still hitting .327 – he has hit only .256 with 26 percent K-rate in the month of May. I’m not here to say he won’t be an effective option, I’m merely saying that expectations for him are completely out of whack. He’s best used as a starter in AL-only leagues or a middle infield option in mixed leagues.
SELL
Jorge Posada: He’ll be 40 in August, an age when about 99.7 percent of catchers have retired. All those years behind the plate simply break you down physically, and I think that’s what we are seeing with Posada. Everyone seemed to think that moving to the DH role would suddenly turn back the clock a decade – that was never going to happen. The Yankees have shown a lot of patience with Posada, but sooner or later they are going to have to admit what is becoming obvious – Posada just doesn’t have it anymore. On the plus side you have to think that his average could easily improve by 50 percent, there’s just no way he’ll have a .134 BABIP this year, not with a .315 career mark. Still, there are better options unless you are talking about him being a second catcher in a mixed league.
SELL
By Ray Flowers
Everyone always likes to take things out of context. Come on, admit it, you’ve done it yourself.
Player A goes 6-for-10 and you want to add him to your club even though he hit .218 last year.
Player B throws a shutout and you want to add him at the cost of a guy who has 175 Ks last year.
Britney Spears is a great singer. Well, if the “context” is me and her in a direct competition, than she is a great singer.
(For more on the idea of “context” make sure you give Context Revisited a read).
Today the context that we will use is FOURTEEN DAYS as in the last 14 days of the 2011 season. When we look at that tiny sample size just look at the craziness that we find.
* Ben Zobrist leads all of baseball with 16 runs scored in just 12 games played. He’s totally going to score more than 210 runs this season. Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez haven’t scored a single run the past 14 days.
* Mark Ellis and Miguel Tejada haven’t knocked in a single run the past two weeks. Lance Berkman has 17 RBI.
* Adam Lind leads baseball with six homers and he’s second with 15 RBI. To compare, Adrian Gonzalez has three homers and 12 RBI. Is there a single person out there who would prefer to have Lind over A-Gone on their team? If you raised your hand “yes” on that one then your must be related to Lind.
* Prince Fielder is hitting .149, the same mark as Starlin Castro. Anyone want to take me up on my bet that Matt Joyce (.457) doesn’t nearly triple those two in batting average this season?
* Troy Tulowitzki, you remember, the guy everyone was saying would be the most productive fantasy player in the game about three weeks ago after his massive start to the year, has hit .093 the past two weeks. He’s also posted an OPS of .426 in that time. Tulo’s career SLG is higher than that at .497.
* Colby Lewis has a HR/9 mark of 2.57. Anyone out there think that they Lewis is going to end the year with HR/9 mark more than double double previous his previous level (it was 0.94 last year)?
* Rarely is there ever an absolute in the world, but in this case there certainly is one. Shaun Marcum, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin and Josh Tomlin have 100 percent left on base percentage marks the past two weeks. Given that no one is perfect, and that the big league average is usually right around 70 percent, you know which way this number is going for all for men – drastically downward.
* The last two weeks five pitchers in baseball have an ERA under 1.00 – Shaun Marcum, Trevor Cahill, Jason Hammel, Vance Worley and Madison Bumgarner. It’s possible that at the end of the year that this five-some of arms will have a combined ERA of 4.00.
* I know that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to maintain his 18.00 K/BB rate from the past two weeks. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Hudson (17.00) and David Price (14.00) won’t be able to keep up their paces either. How can I say that? The single season record, for a minimum of 162 innings pitched, is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.
Remember folks – context and sample size are key. If you focus to so closely on what is right in front of you there might be situations that arise in which you actually think that Britney Spears is a great singer. Pay attention to what is going on at all times, but never lose site of the context.
By Ray Flowers
Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.
The Brandon Webb Saga
Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.
The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.
Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.
Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.
(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?
(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?
(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?
What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.
One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.
Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays
It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.
This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.
Takashi Saito Joins Brewers
Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.
Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.
J.C. Romero Back in Philly
After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.
A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.
By Ray Flowers
With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.
Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.
By Ray Flowers
Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
