Trevor Ray & Justin Fensterman discuss some waiver wire guys that have been on Justin’s mind. They will also breakdown their thoughts on how to rebound in a category if you have fallen behind early and deal with how to spend your FAAB money.
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So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for today’s contest that also gives you a chance to win part of the $24,000 in prizes for Friday’s event.
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Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup, as well as those you would be wise to consider passing on for this Friday.
By Ray Flowers
Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
Who wins: C.J. Wilson $11, Colby Rasmus $8, Matt Holliday $30, Arod $33, Kyle Seager $6 for Mike Trout $15?
I know what I would do here, but apparently my position on the matter is the exact opposite of what everyone else on Twitter seems to think.
Trout has been phenomenal. He’s currently hitting .343 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs, 97 runs scored and 39 steals in a mere 101 games. Still, as I’ve written time after time, Trout can’t possibly perform at this level year after year. I know, I know, no one agrees with me, in fact people vehemently disagree with me and think he is going to hit .333 with 30 homers and 50 steals every year, but I’m not changing my point of view on the matter. Let’s talk again a year from now. Regardless, Trout will go for three times that $15 cost in many, if not all leagues next year, so he is an amazing value for 2013 at just $15.
Still, I’d take the other side.
Wilson has slumped of late, but he is well on his way to a third straight solid season and the $11 cost for him is reasonable. He’ll go for more than $11 in many mixed leagues next year.
Rasmus has certain holes in his game, and he’s about as inconsistent as they come, but he’s still already posted 20 homers and 66 RBIs this season, and for $8 he’s a solid value who will likely go for twice as much on draft day 2013.
Holliday at $30 is a wee bit steep for some (not this scribe), that is until you look at his production. On pace for another .300-30-100-100 effort, Holliday is about as stable a top level option as there is in the game. He’s a rock. Building around him at $30, there is nothing wrong with that at all.
Arod at $33 – no way you keep him for that. I wouldn’t even keep him for $23. At this point, I may not even keep him at half the cost of his keeper value. Drop Arod after the deal is completed.
Seager for $6 is a nice deal too. He’s only appeared in 14 games at second this year, but that might give him second base eligibility in some leagues. Regardless, he has 13 homers and 68 RBIs in his first full season in the big leagues. He’s a sneaky play that could return twice his draft day cost in value.
I’d do this deal provided that you don’t have to keep Rodriguez (he’d be an anchor at $33), but I could certainly see why someone would want to hold on to Trout since he is a special value. As great a player as Trout is, the totality of the players you would be keeping, an at a solid cost, would give you a solid foundation to build around. Plus, the money that you would be saving on your keepers, since all but Arod come at a fair price, will afford you the ability to overspend a bit on draft day for a player or two.
Kris Medlen or Matt Harvey?
Both these guys are rolling right now.
Medlen has won each of his last three starts, and the last two times he has taken the hill he hasn’t allowed a single run. Going back a bit further, Medlen has allowed a total of three runs in his five starts for the Braves. Three. In those five outings Medlen has a 0.83 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, eight strikeouts per nine innings an a 5.80 K/BB ratio. That’s about as good as you can pitch. Add in an impressive 1.94 GB/FB ratio on the season and you’ve got a fella who is (a) performing at optimal levels and (b) a rate that he can’t possibly sustain.
Harvey has the bigger arm, and he likely has the brighter future. In six starts this season Harvey has 43 punchouts in 36 innings, and that has led to an impressive 10.75 K/9 mark. He’s been walking a few too many batters, but with all those punchouts his 2.87 K/BB ratio is still solid. Harvey has also allowed just two runs while walking three batters and striking out 17 over his last two outings. There’s nothing wrong with Harvey’s performance to this point for the Mets, but there is this – he’s on an innings pitched count. The Mets have professed that they want to keep Harvey in the 165-70 range with innings this season. That makes sense given that he threw 135.1 innings last season, not to mention that the Mets have nothing to play for so there is no need to risk the future. By the way, Harvey has thrown 146 innings thus far.
I’d go with Medlen who is pitching better and doesn’t have an innings pitched count to worry about.
Jonathan Lucroy, Geo Soto, Alex Avila, Josh Donaldson @ catcher next 2 weeks?
As we get toward the end of the season, I’ve gotten a few questions like this one with people wanting me to give advice on short-term situations. Here’s the truth everyone – I have no idea. No one does. Simply put, the sample size is just too small. Take this example.
The last two weeks Todd Frazier is hitting .469 with five homers, 13 RBIs, 13 runs and two steals. If you were only looking at two weeks with numbers like that you would have to say he was a better option the next two weeks than Adrian Gonzalez who has really struggled a bit the past two weeks (.217-4-13-5). How many people would prefer Frazier over A-Gone, even in the short-term? Probably not many.
Or how about this. Which player would you rather have based on their August numbers?
.253-2-10 with a .719 OPS
.389-2-10 with a 1.012 OPS
You just chose to keep John Jay (player #2) over Andrew McCutchen.
Two weeks is just too small a time frame to accurately predict how a batter will perform. If you’re gonna try look at things like where will the games be played, how many games will the batter have, who are the hurlers on the hill that he will be facing, wow has the player performed the past few weeks and what is the players skill set?
Quickly, my thoughts on each guy.
Lucroy is hitting .325 with eight homers and 41 RBIs – in 200 at-bats. That is about as impressive a pace as any catcher could ever hope for (think of it, only 400 at-bats would lead to a .325-16-82 line at that pace). He hasn’t quite been that gutter since he returned from injury, he’s hit. 279 with three homers and 11 RBIs in 21 games, but that’s still solid production for a hitter who is clearly performing over his head.
Soto has six hits in his last four games. He’s also picked up an RBI in 4-straight games. Still, he’s hitting just .208 with a .643 OPS this season, and he hasn’t been much better with the Rangers since he was dealt to the American League (.236 with a .682 OPS over 16 games).
Avila hit .295 with 19 homers and 82 RBIs last year, a simply tremendous effort for a backstop. This year, not so much. Avila is hitting just .250 with seven homers and 35 RBIs. He’s obviously not reaching any of last year’s benchmarks. Avila is hitting .294 with a .390 OBP in August, but he still has only one homer and 15 RBIs since the start of June (47 games).
Donaldson has been killing it with 12 hits in his last six outings as his average has shot up from .167 to .226. He is the definition of a hot player that is an intriguing add if you are looking for a quick boost. Could his addition lead to greatness for the next few weeks? Possibly. But as often happens, by the time you realize a guy is hot, like Donaldson, you’ve missed the best he has to offer. There’s no way he gets 12 hits in his next six outings. Not just that, his overall performance this season has been poor, and that three walk, 31 K effort really makes me nervous.
The best catcher this season has been Lucroy. He’d be my choice to roll with out of this quartet.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
(1) Alex Avila headed to DL with hamstring injury.
(2) Colby Rasmus blows up – can he be trusted?
(3) Andy Pettitte dominating batters. Can it continue?
(4) Carlos Quentin is Babe Ruth?
(5) Huston Street returns to action.
(6) Alfonso Soriano flashing power bat. Did you notice?
(7) What to do with the perpetually disappointing Tim Lincecum?
By Ray Flowers
Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).
Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.
Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.
Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.
Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.
Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.
Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.
Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.
Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).
Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.
Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.
By Ray Flowers
It was only a matter of time before the deals started to fly with the Trade Deadline set for July 31st. I usually avoid the rumors, they tend to change like every 13 minutes, but today we’ve actually got a deal that we can discuss. Here are the parameters.
White Sox Receive: Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart
Blue Jays Receive: Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen
That’s what we know for certain. However, there’s a twist. It looks like this deal is a precursor to another move. Here is that proposed deal.
Cardinals Receive: Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepcynski and Corey Patterson
Blue Jays Receive: Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller, Brian Tallet, P.J. Walters
I know, my brain hurts too. Here are some of my thoughts on the key players involved in the deals.
A five tool talent prone to mental lapses and selfish/destructive behavior, the dude is just 24 years old and just a year removed from a .276-23-66-85-12 campaign. He can’t hit lefties (.228 in 303 at-bats in his career), is prone to massive slumps (he’s hit .201 over his last 42 games), and he strikes out too much (more than a fifth of his at-bats), but there is no disputing the talent – and he’s still just 24 years
A nice arm no doubt, but he’s always been inconsistent. On the year his K/BB ratio of 2.49 would be a career best, but he still sports a 3.92 ERA, has a high WHIP at 1.42, and is a roller coaster ride. He’ll move to the NL which should help at least a bit, making him a solid add in mixed leagues. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so he has something to pitch for.
He can still fling it, he has better than a K per inning this year, and he’s even done a solid job limiting the walks with a 3.68 per nine mark which would be a four year low. He’s also locked in right now with a 2.40 ERA over his last 19 appearances.
This righty really has better stuff than he’s given credit for. He doesn’t have one outstanding skill, but he usually throws strikes, doesn’t kill you in the ratio categories (2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), and generally does a good job keeping the ball in the yard (0.76 HR/9 for his career).
Fleet of foot, Patterson always seems to have a stretch where he flat out kills it, but in the end the numbers never seem to get to where you look at them with excitement (i.e. his slash line is .252/.287/.379). Really, a .287 OBP? The six homers, 44 runs and 13 steals make him a solid league specific add, but he simply isn’t a very good hitter.
Rumpelstiltskin has a nice arm. He get Ks, he has an 8.22 K/9 mark in the bigs, and he gets grounders like no ones business (54.4 percent). He may never pan out as a starter, but he could have a long and successful career with his skill set coming out of the pen.
A 3rd round pick in 2008, Stewart might end up doing the old starter in the minors, reliever in the majors thing. Also like Mark R., Stewart has a nice ground ball arm, though his K-rate has dipped a bit the two years (about seven per nine the past two years in Double-A).
Really? I’ll say this, he is a great follow on Twitter (@ESPY_TEAHEN)
(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.
(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.
(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.
(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.
(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.
(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.
(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.
(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D’backs.
By Ray Flowers