Player Profile: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer is a flame thrower for the Tigers who has had a difficult time early in his career flashing start to start consistency. That somewhat uneven effort has caused many to not look closely enough at his dynamic right wing. In what follows I’ll hope to be able to make the point that given his draft day cost that he is a hurler you should be targeting for inclusion on your fantasy squad (he’s barely being taken inside the top-20 at the starting pitching position).

REVIEW: 2008-09

Scherzer started out his big league career with the D’backs and over two seasons he was 9-15 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He was a huge K arm though with an average of 9.54 punchouts per nine innings leading to a solid 2.86 K/BB ratio.

REVIEW: 2010

Max posted a career best set of ratios in 2010 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Oddly, his strikeout ratio dipped to 8.46 per nine though his walk rate continued to dwindle (3.22 per nine after seasons of 3.38 and 3.33).

REVIEW: 2011-12

This is when things started to take off for Scherzer. He won 31 games, more about that below, and he struck out an average of 9.53 batters per nine innings while dropping his walk rate to 2.73 per nine allowing his K/BB ratio to improve to an impressive level of 3.49 (that mark is 16th in baseball among hurlers who tossed 325 innings.).

THE 2012 RUN

In April last year Scherzer went 1-3 with a 7.77 ERA and 2.05 WHIP as batters hit an unconscionable .356 off him. Obviously the regression monster showed his face the rest of the season, and over the final five months of the year he was very, very good. Not just that, he was actually excellent.

Over his final 27 starts of 2012 Scherzer went 15-4, posted a 3.14 ERA, had a 1.16 WHIP, a 11.2 K/9 mark an a 4.34 K/BB ratio. Let’s compare that to the work of Justin Verlander last season.

Verlander: 17-8 (.680 WIN%), 9.0 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Scherzer: 15-4 (.789 Win%), 11.2 K/9, 4.34 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Amazing how similar the two were in overall value if you remove April from Scherzer’s line, isn’t it?

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

THE STRIKEOUT

Scherzer isn’t just a dominating K arm, he’s a historically impressive one. Last season Scherzer struck out 231 batters in 187.2 innings. Since he failed to throw even 190 innings the K total hasn’t been viewed by many in the manner it should be cause he didn’t push 250 Ks. So here’s some context to help out.

(1) Only one man in baseball had more punchouts, and that was his teammate Justin Verlander who had 239 in 238.1 innings, or, 50.2 more innings pitched than Mad Max (I told myself I wasn’t going to use that term in this piece but I just couldn’t help myself). Fifty more innings than Scherzer folks. Think about that for a brief moment before moving on to #2.

(2) Scherzer’s K/9 mark was 11.08, the best in baseball. No one else even struck out 10.50 per nine (Yu Darvish was second at 10.40).

(3) Scherzer’s K/9 mark of 11.08 was historically impressive. Among all pitchers who have ever thrown 162 innings in a season, the number of innings needed to qualify for the ERA title, that 11.08 number has only been bettered 18 times – ever (the single season record is 13.41 by Randy Johnson in 2001 when he struck out 372 batters in 249.2 innings).

(4) Scherzer has thrown 804.2 innings in his career and has posted a 9.27 strikeout per nine mark. Among pitchers who have thrown 800 innings in their career that K/9 mark sits at 11th all-time. Eleventh.

The fact is that Scherzer is as dominating a strikeout arm as you are going to find among starting pitchers.

WINS

You all know my thoughts on wins, I don’t pay them much mind since so much goes into them beyond what the pitcher can control, but facts are facts, and the last two years Scherzer has been a big winner. The last two years Scherzer has won 31 games. That total of 31 wins is the 9th best mark in baseball (tied with James Shields, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels). Max is also one of just 10 hurlers who have won 15 games in each of the past two years.

OUTLOOK

Scherzer is as dominating an arm as there in baseball among starting hurlers. Yes there are some concerns about his ability to bring it start after start, but as I noted above he was pretty much nails after a rough April last year. If he can lock things in for six months, and stay healthy (the team is bringing him along slowly this spring), there’s a very real chance that he could post numbers that can rival those of his more celebrated rotation mate at a greatly reduced cost. Without question the risk is higher with Scherzer than Verlander, but given the draft day cost Scherzer profiles as the arm I would rather target in 2013.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July25, 2012

(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?

(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?

(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?

(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?

(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.

(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).

(8)  Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Best Duo Ever?

Do the Braves have the best lefty-righty duo in modern big league history out of the bullpen?

Craig Kimbrel is up to 39 saves, the highest total in baseball. Kimbrel is also sporting a 14.51 K/9 mark and that mark would be the 7th best mark in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed 60 innings in a season. Kimbrel has allowed eight hits in his last 16.2 innings and on the year he is holding batters to a .174 BAA. Oh yeah, his last blown save was on June 8th (he’s converted 21-straight chances).

Jonny Venters has even better ratios with a 1.11 ERA an a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also struck out more than a batter per inning 0 79 in 72.2 innings – and he’s given up only one long ball on the year (he’s given up only two in his career of 155.2 innings). Why only one homer allowed? Look at that INSANE ground ball rate of 74.8 percent. That’s nearly impossible to sustain, though after last years 68.4 percent mark Venters is starting to look like a guy who might be able to maintain that phenomenal rate. Oh, and good luck getting a hit off him as he’s even better in terms of batting average against with a .156 mark.

Just how good is the duo this season? I’m going to add their numbers together and then compare it to some of the ace starting pitchers in the league. Prepare to be shocked. Kimbrel/Venters would be in the NL Cy Young award talk if they posted these numbers as a starting pitcher.

Braves duo: 13-3, 1.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 3.27 K/BB in 135.1 IP

Josh Beckett: 10-5, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.43 K/BB in 157 IP
Roy Halladay: 15-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 7.91 K/BB in 189.2 IP
Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 4.43 K/BB in 172 IP
Clayton Kershaw: 15-5, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 4.33 K/BB in 183.2 IP
Justin Verlander: 18-5, 2.31 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 4.86 K/BB in 202.2 IP
Jered Weaver: 14-6, 2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 3.76 K/BB in 188.1 IP

See what I’m saying about Kimbrel/Venters being elite? If you get a chance to watch the duo work the 8th and 9th innings do yourself a favor and do it. Pull up a chair, crack open a beer, and watch why  Braves’ game are done after seven innings – you simply aren’t going to score against this duo.

RANDOM MUSINGS – Stephen Strasburg

Don’t get too excited about Stephen Strasburg. If he has any kind of physical hiccup the Nationals will shut him down, an in his next minor league outing he’ll be limited to 65 pitches. Strasburg will likely be really good when he’s on the hill, but I’m thinking he’s a five inning type the ROTW, so don’t go overboard with your expectations for 2011. Also, for those of you in keeper leagues, look at how the Nationals handled Jordan Zimmerman this season if you want to know what to expect from Strasburg next year. That’s right, I’m thinking 160 innings for SS next year, so factor that in to your 2012 rankings.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 9, 2011

Photo by Gary McCabe

I am in 5×5 roto league and have a stacked offense, but my steals are so-so. I’m considering offering Brandon Phillips and Matt Holiday for Ian Kinsler and B.J. Upton. Am I giving up too much in reliable players for a couple with questions?
– Tom, Cypress, Texas

This question brings up an obvious point some people forget at times – nothing is done in a vacuum. Sometimes trading “better” players to get “inferior” ones might be more beneficial to your spot in the standings. Remember, it doesn’t matter if you win the homer category by three or 33, you still get the same amount of points in a rotisserie league. Dealing from an overwhelming strength to shore up a weakness often makes a lot of sense.

Straight up I’d prefer Holliday over Upton – by a lot.
Straight up I’d prefer Kinsler over Phillips – but it’s pretty darn close.

In this scenario however…

Last year Phillips (16) and Holliday (nine) had 25 steals.
Last year Kinsler (15) and Upton (42) had 57 steals.

Per 162 games in their careers…

Phillips (23) and Holliday (14) average 37 steals.
Kinsler (28) and Upton (40) average 68 steals.

Clearly, if the goal is to improve your steal total, this is a move you have to make.

There is obvious risk however. Holliday will hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI while Upton could hit .230-15-60. I personally think Upton has a legit shot to be a dominating force this season, he’s a 20/40 threat in my mind, but their reliability grades couldn’t be more different. I’d also make the argument that the upside with Kinsler is immense, we saw what he could do in 2009 when he went 30/30, but he’s also played more than 130 games just once in five seasons. As for Phillips the ceiling may not be as high as it is with Kinsler, but he has averaged a mighty impressive 21 homers and 24 steals the past five seasons.

Given your situation, and your stated need for speed, I can support this deal as long as you have enough batting average strength to take on the potential downside that Kinsler and Upton could bring.

What do you think of the outlook for Edinson Volquez this year? I have him as a $3 keeper in my $100 salary cap auction league. I have an owner with Cole Hamels ($9) that is interested in Volquez. Would you recommend trading Volquez for Hamels?
– Tom, Baltimore, Maryland

Edison Volquez was a star in 2008 with a 17-6 record, a 3.21 ERA and a mouth watering 206 Ks in 196 innings. He struggled in 2009 before being shut down due to an elbow issue that led to Tommy John surgery, and last season he wasn’t much better in his return to the bigs. In fact, over his last 21 starts the only thing that stands out is his still impressive K-rate: 8-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.13 K/9. He’s also really struggled to throw strikes with a walk rate of 5.37 per nine the past two years. No matter how dominating your stuff is you simply cannot succeed long term when you issue that many free passes. Some of that lack of control can be blamed on the injury and working his way back into shape, but even when Edinson dominated in ’08 he still had a BB/9 rate of 4.27, a full batter above the big league average.

Hamels, for some reason, gets about as much love as Paris Hilton at the Academy Awards. Last year Hamels was 12th in the NL in ERA (3.06), had the same WHIP (1.18) as Clayton Kershaw, Johan Santana and Chris Carpenter, and had a career best 211 Ks, 6th in the league. Flat out, this guy is an ace, even if he doesn’t always get the love that he should in fantasy leagues. He is a safer and vastly superior option when compared to the Reds’ Volquez.

But what of the cost? Converting the dollars to the standard $260 scale, Volquez would be $8 and Hamels $23. Obviously Volquez is a tempting hold given that his cost is 1/3 of Hamels. Would I pay $23 for Hamels in a keeper league? I would. Would I pay $8 for Volquez in a keeper league? I actually answered yes before I finished typing the previous sentence. Without knowing how long players can be kept, if there are any salary increases in successive years, how much money you have invested in your other players, and without knowing who else is on your staff, I’d keep Hamels. If everything breaks right for Volquez we’ve seen that he can be an elite level producer, but Hamels is already there. I know the cost is significant, but in this case I’d go with the higher priced ace from the Phillies and sleep more comfortably at night.

I’m a football convert trying to get into fantasy baseball this season. My question is about draft strategy. Which positions should I target early – like a RB in football – and which should I leave until the end – like a kicker?
– Wilson, Nashville, Tennessee

I get a version of this question every once in a while, and I’m afraid my answer always disappoints – there is no single way to do a baseball draft. There are general rules, and I’ll get to them in a second, but there is nothing like there is in football where you can basically say go running back and wide receiver in the first two rounds and defense and kicker in the last two. There are many reasons for this.

First, there are more positions to fill in fantasy baseball. There are six main starting positions in football (QB, RB, WR, TE, DEF and K) while there are eight in baseball (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, SP and RP). Seceond, there are more players drafted in fantasy baseball – sometimes as many as 10-14 more. Third, there is less certainty in some respects. In football when a RB goes down you know who the team will turn to for 20 touches the next week. In baseball, when a starter goes down, there is often a mix and match scenario that takes place, in addition to there being nothing akin to the replacement player being given a ton of touches and work at the goaline. Simply put – the situation is more variable in baseball.

As for some general rules, here is what I would suggest.

(1) Never draft a closer in the first couple of rounds. Don’t wait until the last round like you would with a kicker, but there is no reason to jump into the closer mix until the middle rounds of a draft.

(2) I would not take a starting pitcher in the first round. Moreover, in most scenarios, I wouldn’t take a starting pitcher in the first five rounds of a draft. This is not a hard and fast rule of course, but I rarely deviate from this plan unless I’m in a scoring setup which favors pitchers. In a standard 5×5 setup, there will be plenty of pitching available in the middle rounds.

(3) I would never take a catcher in the first round. I probably wouldn’t take one in the first couple of rounds actually. Catchers are so susceptible to injury, especially foul tips to their hands or issues with their knees, that consistency from them is elusive. It’s also not at all rare for a starting catcher to play 75 to 80 percent of their teams games, and that dampens the ability for them to post strong counting totals (especially in the RBI and runs scored columns).

(4) While paying attention to position scarcity early on, at least in the first couple of rounds I’m still targeting the best players with my first few selections. As an example, I’m not going to draft Jose Reyes in the second round if players like Matt Kemp, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen are still there. Reyes might play shortstop, a position that is in arguably thinner than the outfield, but if I have Kemp, Upton and McCutchen ranked ahead of Reyes on my draft board, I’m still going to go with the outfielders.

Have fun with it – and welcome to the world of fantasy baseball.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s baseball analysis can be found at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Around the Horn: NLCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the National League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Phillies and the Giants. Here is a link to the ALCS Preview in case you missed it.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Perspective

It’s playoff time, and thankfully, just before a heart attack set in, the Giants dispatched the Braves to move on to the NLCS. They now face arguably the best team in baseball in the Phillies, but you have to beat the best to be the best. Here are some playoff thoughts as we head deep into October baseball.

Phillies vs. Giants

Speaking of the Phillies against the Giants, could you possibly construct a scenario more interesting than the presumed Game 1 matchup of Halladay vs. Lincecum? Let’s go to the tale of the tape.

Age, Height, Weight

Halladay: 33 years old, 6’6″, 230 lbs
Lincecum: 26 years old, 5’11″, 170 lbs

ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, BAA

Halladay: 2.44, 1.04, 7.86, 7.30, .245
Lincecum: 3.43 1.27, 9.79, 3.04, .242

Styles

Halladay: Tall, lanky and the possessor of one of the most versatile arsenals in the game, Halladay can beat you pretty much any way you can think of. If he needs a strikeout he can pick one up, and he is never going to beat himself with the free pass. When he is “on” you will be hard pressed to see someone who can control both sides of the plate any better, and he simply gets filthy movement on his pitches to constantly mess with the hitters line of site. There is no better “pitcher” in the game today.

Lincecum: He couldn’t be any different than the Phillies’ ace. While Halladay has the prototypical pitchers build and a smooth flowing motion, Lincecum is all arms and legs as he seems to propel himself plate ward with every pitch. No bigger than the guy you just ran into in line at Starbucks, Lincecum generates tremendous whip with his arm, and it allows him to hurl the ball harder than he should for a man his size. While he can certainly “pitch,” Lincecum is the type of dominating hurler that when he is “on” batters give each other high five’s if they merely manage to put the barrel on the ball.

If I had to some it up I would say this. Halladay quietly retires the side over and over while Lincecum does the same while striking fear into the hearts of batters.

It should be a wonderful matchup.

Thanks to Jeff Fletcher of AOL for the following Tweets:

* Roy Halladay- Roy Oswalt-Cole Hamels vs SF this year: 1-2, 6.12;
Tim Lincecum- Matt Cain- Jonathan Sanchez vs PHI: 2-1, 1.96
* OK, here’s one you won’t believe: Slugging pct: Phillies .413; SF Giants .408.

* Since 9/1 Phillies scored 167 runs (most in MLB), SF Giants allowed 60 runs (fewest in MLB).

Tupac or Biggie? I’ve always been a huge Tupac fan, and that will never change, but as time wears on I’ve been giving Biggie a second look and the dude is growing on me. Just thought I would throw that in there.

Rays vs. Rangers

Heading into Game 5 of the the ALDS – here is one stat line you need to keep in mind; Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA an a 0.80 WHIP in the playoffs.

The Rays hit .123 through the fifth inning of Game 3. Since then they are batting .362 with four homers in 58 ABs.

Yankees

The Yankees lost 17 of their last 26 games entering the playoffs before the went out and swept the Twins three games to none.

The Twins, they have lost 12-straight postseason games since 2004, one short of the all-time record set by the Red Sox (1986-95). The last nine loses have all come against the Bronx Bombers.

Some more bad news Twins fans? How about the fact that the Yankees have won the last four playoff matches between the clubs as they have outscored the Twinkies by the score of 69-36. That’s about as ugly as it gets.

By Ray Flowers

Three's Company

I’m going to hit on three topics today. First, I’ll discuss the move of Manny to the White Sox. I’ll then break down why I think there are two full fledged aces with the Phillies though many only see one (Roy Halladay). Finally, I’ll play a little game of “Who am I?’ with you to see if you can guess which pitcher I’m talking about.

Manny to Be Manny in Chi-Town

Manny Ramirez is an amazing hitter. In fact, he is likely one of the 10 best right-handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Just look at how he stacks up historically amongst righties (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

4th with 1,120 extra bass hits
8th with 554 home runs
6th with 1,828 RBI
8th with a .411 OBP
5th with a 1.000 OPS

Those are some mighty impressive numbers indeed. He’s also been pretty darn effective this season as well, albeit in limited work because he just can’t see to get, and then stay, healthy. Still, he is hitting .311 – just two points below his career rate – while his .405 OBP is six a points down. Mere mortals would be enthralled if the back of their baseball card had a season with an .915 OPS, but for Manny that is a disappointing total considering that his OPS has been under .949 only one time since 1995. The guy can still hit, and he should offer the White Sox a tremendous boost as a middle of the order thumper – provided his calf is healthy. If you are in an AL-only league dump whatever remaining FAAB dollars you have to acquire the aloof yet stupendous gifted slugger in his return to the AL.

Cole Hamels is Pitching Very Well

Has anyone noticed just how well Hamels is hurling of late? I kind of doubt it because all anyone seems to see is that pathetic 8-10 win-loss record. Much like Felix Hernandez who is a mere 10-10, Hamels has actually pitched very well this season, particularly as the summer has dragged on. Here is what you should know but may have overlooked.

On the year Hamels has a 3.31 ERA which is better than Francisco Liriano (3.41), Ryan Dempster (3.42) and Yovani Gallardo (3.50) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has a 1.20 WHIP which is better than Zack Greinke (1.21), CC Sabathia (1.23) and David Price (1.26) to name a few.

On the year Hamels has 176 strikeouts which are more than any lefty in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw (180) or Jon Lester (176).

Moreover, Hamels has pitched wonderfully the past month an a half since the All-Star break. Here are his numbers over his nine starts.

2.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 6.27 K/BB

If you pitch like that over the course of a season they call you the Cy Young Award winner, so how in the world is he just 1-3 in that time? Man that Phillies offense has been a letdown this season.

Who Am I?

I’m a really good pitcher, but no one seems to notice. Here are some facts to help make clear just how good I’ve been this year.

I own a 3.39 ERA over 162 innings. It’s not really odd that I’m posting such a strong number. After all I have a career mark of 3.62.

I currently have a WHIP of 1.19. Again, it’s not at all surprising to me considering that my career mark is the same – 1.19.

I currently have a 3.28 K/BB mark that is 20th best in baseball.

Any idea who I might be?

No, I’m not Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster or Johnny Cueto. I’m also not Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt or CC Sabathia. Who am I?

I pitch for the Dodgers.

I’ve been in the United States for three years.

My name is Hiroki Kuroda.

Will someone please show me some respect?

Arigatou
(Thank you in Japanese)

By Ray Flowers

Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers