Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL

Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.

John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.

Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).

Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.

Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.

Rookie Report

Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.

Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June17, 2011

(1) Interleague play messes with players.

(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.

(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?

(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?

(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.

(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).

By Ray Flowers

Waiver-Wire Adds

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

You’re in a 12 team league that starts 14 hitters and nine pitchers with five or six guys on your bench. If you are in a setup such as this the following guys might be available for you to add. The question is – should you?

Mike Adams: The best pitcher in baseball? Through 14 innings he hasn’t walked a better and has allowed three hits. That’s a 0.21 WHIP folks. Toss in a 0.64 ERA and the guy been utterly amazing. He’s worth a look in a 12 teamer while pitching like this just don’t expect too many saves since Heath Bell is currently working on the 6th longest consecutive save streak in big league history (40).

Alberto Callaspo: He might be hitting .301, but he’s really nothing more than a replacement level player. Callaspo has never hit more than 11 homers in a season, and he has all of 10 steals in his career. His average won’t hurt you, it sits at .280 for his career, and it is impressive that he’s currently sporting a substantial increase in his walk rate which has led to a .381 OBP, some .051 points clear of his career rate. Unfortunately he likely only qualifies at third base, but with all the injuries at that position he might be worth a short-term add.

Doug Fister: This hurler owns a solid 1.28 WHIP during his young career, and his ERA also sits below four at 3.92. Unfortunately his K/9 rate is just 5.19, so there is little in the way of upside here. Fister’s xFIP last year – a measure designed to show what a pitchers true ERA should be (including normalization for ballpark) – says that his mark last year was 4.10, that it is 4.16 this year and 4.18 for his career. Given that his ERA’s his first two years were 4.13 and 4.11, do you really think he has a good shot to keep his ERA below three this year (it’s currently 2.70)?

Kosuke Fukudome: He lit up April hitting .383/.486/.400. So the initial thought is that he must finally have figured it out. Probably not. He’s still being platooned sitting against lefties (only six at-bats against southpaws this year), and if you look at his career April is always his best month of the season. Moreover, its the only month he has hit better than .280 (.338), his only one with an OBP over .382 (it’s .448) an a SLG over .455 (it’s .507). History says you should expect things to go south pretty soon.

Todd Helton: The Rockies’ first sacker is a legitimate option at the corner infield spot, especially with guys like Daric Barton and James Loney struggling. Helton isn’t likely to reach his totals from 2009 (.325-15-86-79) but it’s doubtful he’ll be as bad as he was last year either (.256-8-37-48). As long as his back doesn’t betray him his bat can play as a depth option.

Phil Humber: His spot in the rotation isn’t secure with Jake Peavy nearing a return, but Humber has performed admirably. However, he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.85 per nine), and there is little chance that he will be  able to continue to keep his HR/9 so low (it’s 0.56) and there is no chance he’ll keep his hit rate down at .212 (that’s some .065 points below his career rate).

Conor Jackson: A first round draft pick with beautiful stroke, Jackson was a solid performer from 2006-08 as a guy who was hitting .290 with 15 homers and 70 RBI. He then picked up West Valley Nile River Mekong Delta Virus or whatever it’s called. It ruined his 2009 and 2010 seasons. Playing time is an issue this season, the A’s have seemingly 47 hitters on their roster, but Conor is looking just like his old self hitting .298 with a .375 OBP and his normally stellar BB/K ratio (1.00). He’s worth an add if he continues to play every day.

Jason Marquis: He’s 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA. Come on, seriously though? Marquis will take the ball every five games, throw a lot of innings, and produce double-digit wins. He does it every year he is healthy. He also owns a career ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.42 over more than 1,500 big league innings. He’s totally on his game right now and might be worth a spot start or two in the short-term, but you can’t count on him to be anything more than your last starter – and even that may not be a deal you’ll want to make in a mixed league.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 20, 2010

(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.

(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.

(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.

(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?

(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.

(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.

(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 16, 2010

(1) Jake Peavy has an arm issue. Does that mean Daniel Hudson is close to be recalled?

(2) Tim Lincecum takes a liner off his shoulder – appears to be OK.

(3) Carlos Ruiz slumping, missing time with injury for the Phillies.

(4) Alex Rodriguez back from hip injury after missing about a week.

(5) Giants still hoping to get Pablo Sandoval to lose weight.

(6) Conor Jackson to play everyday in LF for the Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 14, 2010

(1) Interleague play returns on Tuesday.

(2) Trade talks heating up – Roy Oswalt, Ty Wigginton, Conor Jackson, Mike Lowell etc.

(3) Jeff Suppan returns to Cardinals.

(4) Pablo Sandoval continues to struggle, hitting .234 last 39 games.

(5) Matt Cain new Giants “ace”?

(6) Chad Qualls likely out in favor of Aaron Heilman at closer for D’backs.

(7) Pedro Alvarez on verge of being called up for Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April20, 2010

(1) Edinson Volquez suspended 50 games for trying to start a family?

(2) Cliff Lee has suspension rescinded.

(3) Lance Berkman returns – Chris Johnson to DL.

(4) Russell Branyan back for Indians.

(5) Mike Gonzalez getting second opinion on shoulder.

(6) Mike Cameron to DL. Jacoby Ellsbury still dealing with side issue leaving Red Sox thin in outfield.

(7) Conor Jackson to DL, Gerardo Parra into lineup.

(8) Madison Bumgarner finds lost seven mph?

By Ray Flowers

Insights and Jed Wars

Today I’m going to pause long enough from my sniffles, yes, I seem to have picked up another case of the cooties, to give my thoughts on a few of the pertinent issues in the game. I’ll also post a link at the end to a video I made for one of the expert baseball leagues I’m in this season.

Things are so spotty with the health of Lance Berkman (knee) that running 50-yard sprints at 75 percent is newsworthy. He still hopes to be back next week, though I really have no idea if that is a reasonable goal or not.

Want to know how fickle managers are when it comes to the ninth inning? Frank Francisco and Mike Gonzalez have already lost their closers jobs – though both teams have said they will regain them once they are back to throwing the ball as they can. It appears there might also be a changing of the guard in Toronto as well where manager Cito Gaston came out on Tuesday and said that he was no longer going to go with Jason Frasor as the exclusive closer. Gaston has changed his tune after going into the year saying he would pick just one guy, and now he will go with a different option in consecutive games. Certainly it hasn’t helped that Frasor has a loss and two blown saves, but come on now Cito. Don’t give us that B.S. that you don’t want to use the same guy in back-to-back games, just be honest with us and say that Frasor has been awful and Kevin Gregg deserves a shot. No one is stupid enough to buy your explanation.

Conor Jackson is one of the odder leadoff men in the history of baseball from a physical standpoint. He’s obviously only there because the D’backs don’t have a better option, but I gotta say that his stroke basically looks like the mirror image of Joe Mauer. Seriously, it’s that pretty.

Nick Johnson crushed a homer today, way out of New Yankee Stadium. Gotta tell you though, everything that guy does makes me nervous. It’s kinda like the beautiful woman with the evening gown who looks like someone you’d like to take back to the hotel room until you see her walk in her heels which makes her look like a reject from gymnastics class who couldn’t balance on the balance beam. In the batters box the swing looks pretty, but when Johnson is doing anything other than swinging the lumber I just want to close my eyes.

Clayton Kershaw will never reach his potential if he keeps throwing so many pitches. For the record, Kershaw needed 110 pitches to record just 16 outs (5.1 innings) against the D’backs on Tuesday. You just can’t win too many ball games, or be a big game pitcher, if you can never make it out of the sixth inning. The talent is immense, but the lack of control with his pitches is certainly holding him back.

Manny Ramirez crushed a homer 435 feet on Tuesday with one of his effortless swings. Those people who predicted failure from him in 2010 just don’t get it. This guy is one of the top-10 right-handed hitters in the history of the game. Yeah, I said it.

It looks like the Mets will follow through on their plan to bat leadoff man Jose Reyes third in the lineup. Reyes will likely move back into the leadoff spot when Carlos Beltran returns from his knee injury, but that still might be a month or more away given that Beltran still hasn’t been allowed to run yet as the doctors continue to hold him back. Reyes is capable of handling the role, but he might be less inclined top run wild with the middle of the order right behind him.

And finally, for those of you who weren’t aware, I’m in JED WARS this season. What is Jed Wars? It’s an offshoot of Tout Wars, the preeminent fantasy baseball experts league in the country, and is named after Jed Latkin (for more on Jed you can given the movie Fantasyland a view at the link). Back to me, and let’s face it that’s what I’m always all about, you can click on my brief little intro at BaseballGuys Introduction if you want to get some insight into who I am complete with happy faced sweats, gnomes and a Nerd Herd hat from the television show Chuck.

By Ray Flowers

A Day of Change

Today’s article is marked by the call-up of a potential future star, a couple of oddly injured players currently in Arizona, the return from irrelevance for a backup Mets infielder and a hurler from Cleveland, as well as a look at two key players in the AL Central.

Mat Gamel is headed to Milwaukee, likely to take the roster spot of Brad Nelson who has been awful this season (0-for-21). Gamel, the teams up and coming start at the plate, was tearing it up at Triple-A hitting .336 with eight home runs and 31 RBI in just 33 games proving that he simply doesn’t need any more seasoning in the minors. The question now becomes, how much will he play? There certainly isn’t a good reason to have him waste away on the bench picking up spare at-bats here and there (he could DH for the club in their upcoming inter-league series). Still, dude has eight errors at third so far this year, and to be honest his name has never been associated with Brooks Robinson. Still, if you have been relying on Bill Hall, it may be nearing the time that you’ll want to be concerned.

Cliff Lee has turned around an abysmal start to the year with a 1.43 ERA over his last six starts during which time he is just 2-4 thanks to a lack of run support. He won’t ever match what he did last year again, but he is clearly over whatever issue was troubling him at the start of the season and appears to have righted the ship completely.

The Tigers owe Magglio Ordonez millions over the next couple of seasons, and word out of Chicago is that the team might actually consider outright releasing their star outfielder to avoid paying him the dough. Here is how it breaks down.

2010: A mutual option for $18 million that becomes guaranteed if he has 540 plate appearances or 135 starts this season.

2011: A mutual option for $15 million that becomes guaranteed if he has 1,080 plate appearances or 270 starts in 2009-10.

If the club lets him go now they would have to pay the remainder of his 2009 salary ($18 million), but would only owe him a buyout of $3 million to void the final two years of the deal “saving” them $30 million. Ordonez has been pretty awful this year hitting .241 with just two home runs and 12 RBI, but would the club really cut him loss after he averaged .326-24-115-90-2 the past three years? Fiscal responsibility – teams need to practice it or they will be left with no-win situations like this one.

Alexei Ramirez went 3-for-3 on Wednesday to push his fledgling average up to .223. In his 103 at-bat this season he has only one dinger and just seven runs scored, so if not for his six steals his value would be miniscule, not just awful. In 583 career at-bats Ramirez owns a .278 average with 22 home runs and 90 RBI, not to mention the 19 steals, but he also has walked just 24 times against 75 strikeouts. There is only one Alfonso Soriano, and as much as people want Ramirez to be the second one, it just isn’t likely to happen, especially considering that Ramirez is already 27 years old and that he still cannot control the strike zone very well.

Fernando Tatis is once again paying huge dividends for those who took a chance on him late in NL-only leagues. Tatis had three hits, including his second home run of the year, as he platted four RBIs for the Mets playing at first base in place of Carlos Delgado on Wednesday. Tatis is now batting .358 on the year and dating back to last season Tatis is hitting .307 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI in just 326 ABs. Considering that he had only 56 total at-bats in the 2004-06 seasons, its been a truly remarkable return from the dead for Fernando.

Joey Votto is out of the lineup on Wednesday after leaving the game on Tuesday due to dizziness that the club believes resulted from the flu combined with the warm, dry air of Arizona. Hey Joey, drink some Gatorade. Speaking of Arizona, we are still awaiting clarification on just what ails Conor Jackson as tests continue to be inconclusive in terms of defining just what his illness is.

By Ray Flowers