Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 10, 2011

photo © 2008 Steve Paluch | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Is it time to cut bait on Corey Hart?
– @DeKampanilya

Hart’s season started late because of injury, and then the Brewers made the mistake of activating him too quickly (he had only 15 at-bats appearances in the minors and produced two hits). “Maybe we could have kept him there longer but some of that has to do with the player… Corey thought he was ready,” said manager Ron Roenicke. Clearly, Hart wasn’t ready. Through 34 at-bats he is batting .176, has a .382 OPS and hasn’t produced a single RBI. So do you drop him? Would you drop Troy Tulowitzki? If you weren’t aware, he has been  worse than Hart the past two weeks hitting just .093. Obviously Tulo is a better player than Hart, but the point should be obvious – you don’t want to panic and drop guys with track records of success because of down periods. Coming off a season in which he hit 31 homers, knocked in 102 runs and scored 91 times – something only seven other hitters in the game did last year – it would be pretty darn tough to recommend dropping Hart unless you are desperate or in a really shallow mixed league.

Raul Ibanez off waivers? Yeah, I’m that desperate.
– @Chris_Rinaldi

Ibanez had an 0-for-35 stretch recently, and the results of that slump are clearly evident in his .222 batting average for the season. At the same time, the guy has completely turned things around of late with five multiple hit games in his last seven outings. In fact, over the last seven days Ibanez is hitting .462 with two homers and five RBI as he is on his way to putting that massive slump to bed. However, there are concerns with Ibanez. First, he will be 39 years old next month and coming off his worst HR total (16) in six years and his worst RBI mark (83) in seven years. Second, Domonic Brown is closing fast hitting .367 with four bombs, 10 RBI and 11 runs in 13 minor league games as he works his way back from injury. Will Brown eat into Ibanez’s playing time? He may not if Ben Francisco continues to struggle so mightily (he has one hit in 18 at-bats in May), but both Ibanez and Francisco could be put on notice shortly when Brown is called up.

Ibanez is a veteran run producer and manager Charlie Manuel is nothing if not supportive, sometimes to a fault, of his veterans. There isn’t much reason to think that Ibanez can’t replicate the numbers he posted last season (.275-16-83), even with his slow start, so you’ll have to decide how much value there would be in your league for an outfielder like that.

Chris Iannetta and John Buck are on a tear lately. Which would you rather own?
– @chillmodious

Back in January I broke down Buck in How to Evaluate a Player. You can read that piece to find out why I felt that Buck didn’t appear likely to replicate the numbers he posted last season (.281-20-66-53). So far this season I’ve been sort of right. Buck is hitting a poor .236, though predicting a regression in his batting average was the easy to do after last season, but the counting numbers have been solid. If Buck were to maintain his current pace over 409 at-bats, the total he received last year with Toronto, here is how his 2011 effort would stack up.

2010: .281-20-66-53
2011: .236-15-63-59

While admitting my initial thoughts of a regression appear to be taking hold, I’m surprised at the fact that Buck has done as well as he has this year. At the same time, Buck has three homers and eight RBI in his last 10 games, or his numbers would look awful. He still isn’t getting on base (.317 OBP), but I will commend him for his BB/K mark which is 0.52. Of course, only once in his career has that mark been 0.40, and for his career it’s 0.28, so it’s doubtful to hold up. So in the end, I’m still sticking with the regression I predicted three and a half months ago.

I’ve long been a fan of Iannetta. He’ll never hit for a strong average, he is currently batting .247 and striking out 35 percent of the time, but he has always had plenty of power (five homers in just 77 ABs) and he has always known how to work the count (his OBP is a whopping .414). The difference between these two backstops boils down to this for me. Iannetta is younger (by three years), hits in a better park and knows how to take a walk. Sooner or later those factors will overcome a grip it and rip it hitter like Buck. While their numbers look pretty similar at this point, I’d offer this slant. Let’s compare each hitters career numbers, per 400 at-bats, and see what we end up with.

J. Buck: .243-15-56-47 with a .302 OBP and .723 OPS
Iannetta: .235-19-67-55 with a .358 OBP and .799 OPS

Give me Iannetta who has slightly more power, a much better eye, is younger and hits in the better ball park.

I need Closer. Would you deal Robinson Cano for Heath Bell and Grady Sizemore?
– @mattsenatore

Cano was drafted as the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. He’s done little to dissuade anyone from that view as he is hitting .290 with eight homers, 24 RBI and 18 runs scored. For those of you who love “pace” talk – that would equate to a season long fantasy line of .290-40-121-91-10. Uh yeah, that’s pretty good. Clearly you would only move Cano if the return was substantial.

Bell just lost his streak of 41-consecutive save chances converted, but he has still been dynamite yet again. Through 14 appearances Bell has posted a 1.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and has converted eight of nine save chances. His strikeout mark is down almost two full batters from his career mark (7.71 compared to 9.45) and he is walking more batters than ever before (his current BB/9 mark of 3.86 is well above his career rate of 3.03), but I would take those two numbers to be more of a reflection of a small sample size than declining skills. With all the turnover in the 9th inning this year, there can’t be any argument whatsoever that Bell is one of about 10 “locks” at the backend of bullpens right now.

Sizemore started out on fire (he hist .378 in April), and then slumped miserably of late (.143 in May). In total, he’s hitting .288 with a .342 OBP. For his career he has hit .273 with a .363 OBP, so he’s pretty much right on track there. However, he’s really upped the homer pace with five bombs in 73 at-bats leading to a mark of one homer every 14.6 at-bats. Given that he hit one every 25.3 at-bats over his first 3,259 at-bats, you’d have to assume that rate will regress moving forward. However, the biggest concern with Sizemore is his utter lack of thefts. Sizemore has attempted only one steal and he was unsuccessful. It’s no a shock that he has curtailed his running since he is coming back off major knee surgery, but there is a massive difference in terms of the value of a player if he is swiping 20+ bases, as Sizemore did from 2005-08, compared to the a guy who just isn’t running.

I’d hold on to Cano. He’s as certain as any hitter in baseball to meet his lofty projections as an elite option. Sizemore, until he starts running, simply isn’t close to being an elite level fantasy outfielder. Bell is elite, but with seemingly half the teams in the league switching things up in the 9th inning on a daily bases you have, and will have, plenty of options to turn to if you need save help moving forward.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Around the Horn: August 2, 2010

(1) Martin Prado to DL with pinkie injury.

(2) Andrew Bailey hopes to return to action this weekend.

(3) Jorge Cantu will share time at 1B with Mitch Moreland.

(4) James McDonald to start for Pirates in place of Daniel McCutchen.

(5) Joe Mauer continues to miss time with sore shoulder.

(6) Corey Hart signs 3-year, $26.5 million deal.

(7) Jacoby Ellsbury still working at Triple-A.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 12, 2010

(1) The Fanball Fantasy Drive – XM 147, Sirius 211. For more on the show make sure you give I’m a Star a read.

(2) The Home Run Derby – my thoughts.

(3) The All-Star Game.

(4) Jose Reyes potentially to DL with oblique injury.

(5) No timetable on a return for Victor Martinez (thumb).

(6) Red Sox trying to make nice with Jacoby Ellsbury.

(7) Brian Roberts headed out on minor league rehab assignment.

(8) Blue Jays might be offering their entire bullpen in trade.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Diamond

I went to the dentist today. (1) Who would ever want to spend their day with their fingers in someone’s mouth? (2) I hate the dentist – though who doesn’t? (3) At least if they are gonna make me go and inflict copious amounts of pain on me they could have some eye candy for me to look at, right? Only seems fair to me.

With each passing outing I grow more and more fond of this Mike Leake kid. He skipped the minors completely after being the 8th overall selection in the 2009 Entry Draft, and that looked like a major faux pas when he walked 12 batters in his first two big league starts. Well, consider those worries completely alleviated. Leake has gone at least six innings in each of his 10 starts, and nine times the outings have been of the “quality” variety as he has lowered his ERA to 2.45 on the year. Oh yeah, and the walks, they are no longer a problem as he has walked all of 13 batters in his last eight appearances.

The Braves are 16-4 since May 10th as they have made up 7.5 games in the standings. You didn’t make the mistake of thinking they wouldn’t be in the mix this year, did you?

The Brewers went 9-0 against the Marlins in 1998. Since then they are 30-48 in the matchup.

Speaking of the Brewers, Corey Hart is blazing hot right now with 10 homers and 21 RBI over his last 16 games. Hart also has a fantastic .800 SLG in that time as he is averaging one blast every 6.50 at-bats, though there are also some rather odd numbers to be found such as his .299 OBP and the fact that he’s only scored two runs when he didn’t knock himself in with a dinger.

I know it sounds crazy, but Aaron Heilman is the best reliever the D’backs have going right now. It’s not inconceivable that he could get a few chances in the ninth inning thanks to his 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, numbers that blow doors on Chad Qualls (7.64 and 2.09) and Juan Gutierrez (10.00 and 1.72).

How disappointing was that Giants/Rockies game on Monday? Ubaldo Jimenez was once again spectacular with a complete game four hit shutout, but Tim Lincecum failed to step up as he allowed five walks and four runs (three earned) before being pulled after 121 pitches and just 5.2 innings. The Giants desperately need Lincecum to figure out what ails him – possibly issues range from blisters to a mechanical glitch – or they’ll have no chance to compete in the NL West. As for Jimenez, he tossed 130 pitches on Monday and is third in baseball in pitches thrown (1,218) behind Justin Verlander (1,243) and Roy Halladay (1,220). Verlander has three 120-pitch outings, Halladay two and Jimenez four by the way. All bear close watching as they are throwing an awful lot of pitches right now. One last note on Jimenez. If he were to allow 19 runs in his next start and not record a single out he was still have an ERA below 2.95. That’s truly amazing.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 20th grand slam on Monday to move into third place all-time in salami’s behind the Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig (23), and the Iron Head, Manny Ramirez (21). A-Rod hit .250 with two homers in April, but he was the same old A-Rod in May hitting five bombs while knocking in 27 runners in 27 games played. He also hit a fine .330 on the month.

I just started watching the series 24 for the first time on DVD. Don’t know how people waited an entire week to watch the next episode. And yes, I find Nina attractive.

Grady Sizemore was transferred from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL meaning that in a best case scenario he would return a couple of weeks after the All-Star game. He might still need more extensive surgery than what is currently planned, the doctors won’t know until they get in there, so there is a chance that he might end up missing the rest of the season.

Overall batters are hitting.215 this season against Justin Verlander. However, they seem to be able get to him before he settles in as evidenced by his .370 batting average against in the first inning. After that, they have no shot.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April7, 2010

(1) Jim Edmonds continues to play over Corey Hart. For more take a look at By The Numbers – Hitters.

(2) Rockies outfield situation a fantasy landmine. For more read Around the Horn.

(3) Dallas Braden’s hot start.

(4) Edgar Renteria off to blazing start (8-for-11).

(5) Mike Morse to take over RF in Washington?

(6) Brad Lidge doing better since cortisone shot in elbow.

(7) Lance Berkman doing better since cortisone shot in knee.

(8) Brandon Webb in holding pattern after cortisone shot.

(9) Ian Kinsler likely 7-10 days away.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low, Sell High

Here is a list of eight guys who I think you should look to either add to, or trade from, your fantasy baseball roster on the eve of of the 2010 season. BUY LOW: Nate McLouth, Corey Hart, Mike Aviles, Lance Berkman. SELL HIGH: Fausto Carmona, Jayson Heyward, Troy Tulowitzki, Joe Mauer.

BUY LOW

(1) McLouth – Had a terrible spring, now dealing with hamstring injury.
(2) Hart – Went 20/20 in 2007-08. Slumping, and Brewers might trade him.
(3) Aviles – Has a .300 bat, and not much in his way right now.
(4) Berkman – Likely to miss two weeks with sore knee, but it’s not serious.

SELL HIGH

(1) Carmona – Great spring, but scary K/BB ratio past two years.
(2) Heyward – Anything short of 20/20 with 100 runs seems like it would be a disappointment.
(3) Tulowitzki – I’m concerned about his ability to repeat homers and steals.
(4) Mauer – For more on Mauer click on the link to MLB Predictions- Hitters.

By Ray Flowers

MIC WARS

It’s my birthday today. I know, I know, those of you that know me knew I was a fool without need of the support of the day of my birth being April Fool’s Day, but there certainly is some nice symmetry here is there not?

With that, I thought I would move on to some actually baseball talk. Dave Gawron organized what we hope will be the first annual MIC WARS. What is MIC WARS? Simply it’s a 12-team mixed league, using 5×5 scoring, that includes 12 shows that talk baseball on Blog Talk Radio (you can find my show, which I do each day with Kyle Elrink, at 8-9 AM PST, Mon. – Fri., or you can check out the archive at The Fantasy Buffet). Before moving on to my team, here is a link to Dave’s review of the entire draft so you can see how it played out. And here is Team Fantasy Buffet (I have the #4 pick in the snake draft that starts 14 hitters, and nine pitchers).

C: Kurt Suzuki (14), Carlos Santana (25), Adam Moore (26)
1B: Derrek Lee (7), Lance Berkman (10)
2B: Jose Lopez (8), Howie Kendrick (9)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (3), Casey Blake (24)
SS: Alexei Ramirez (11), Ian Desmond (23)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), Jacoby Ellsbury (2), Jason Bay (5), Andrew McCutchen (6), Corey Hart (16), David DeJesus (28), Desmond Jennings (29)

SP: CC Sabathia (4), James Shields (12), Jonathan Sanchez (13), Jered Weaver (15), Aaron Harang (21), Brett Myers (30)
RP: Brad Lidge (17), Octavio Dotel (18), Ryan Madson (19), Chris Perez (20), Matt Thornton (22), Joba Chamberlain (27)

C: Suzuki is s top-5 option, and while Santana and Moore may not have starting spots, I bet the duo combines for at least 400 highly effective at-bats.

1B: Two grey beards, but both are capable of 25 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs scored. I’ll take that all day.

2B: Lopez will likely also qualify at third, which is why I took him over Dan Uggla. As for Kendrick, I was tempted to wait and try and target Rickie Weeks later in the draft, but I just couldn’t pass on Kendrick who could hit .300 while going 15/15.

3B: Sandoval is money, plus he’s the Kung Fu Panda and plays for my favorite team. Casey Blake is boring yet highly efficient, and he is a more than adequate backup at third.

SS: Alexei Ramirez may never have that 20/20 season, but I’ll take a repeat of last year (.277-15-68-71-14). Desmond is a bit of a wildcard, but it looks like he will open the year as the Nationals starter at short and could very well surprise given his draft position.

OF: Braun and Ellsbury is a dynamic duo. Bay is as steady as they come as the only OF who in four of the last five seasons has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI, 100 runs and 10 steals. McCutchen could blow up and is a wonderful 4th OF, better than a few teams #2 option, and don’t believe the Hart will be platooned talk out of Milwaukee, it ain’t gonna happen. DeJesus is boring but a fine 6th outfielder, and though Jennings has little value at this point, he could be a beast on the base paths if the Rays gave him a shot at playing time.

SP: I normally never take a starter early, but when Sabathia was still there at pick 45 – his ADP is 29 – I thought it was a nice value play. Shields and Weaver are steady, and Sanchez, well, I have high hopes for that kid which you can read about at Taking Sides – Starters. Harang and Myers may not be exciting, but if every breaks right I could get 300 Ks and an ERA below 4.00 from the duo – really.

RP: If you have ever seen a better group of bullpen arms assembled on one team, I would be flabbergasted. If all of these arms are healthy, the unit could sport a K/9 rate of about 10, a massive mark. Lidge is certainly an open question at the start of the year, but I handcuffed that selection by taking Madson who should fill in until Lidge is healthy. Perez will get some saves with Kerry Wood out, Dotel appears locked in the 9th for the Pirates, Thornton may be the best middle reliever in baseball, and you watch Joba dominate in the pen.

This team has some electric arms, a few grizzled vets on offense, and a boat load of talented youngsters. Who knows how the team will end up at the season’s conclusion, but I really love the mix at this point.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Winter Meetings Update

I love the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’ve combined the event with Twitter to form a duo kind of like peanut butter and jelly. I admit it. I’m addicted now. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking ‘I’m sure the readers would love to hear that thought.’ Don’t worry, I keep a pad by my bed to write down the thoughts that hit me when most of the U.S. is counting candy canes in their sleep.

* Still reeling over the Three-team Blockbuster Deal between the Tigers, Yankees and D’backs? You can read my breakdown of the deal by clicking on the link, but there is still something I don’t get – why did the D’backs enter this deal as the third team? I think they will rue the day that they let Max Scherzer go for Edwin Jackson. Maybe I’m wrong here, but honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Whether Scherzer is a top of the rotation arm, or a closer (a potential given his somewhat violent delivery), as long as his arm doesn’t fly off I see this kid being something special.

* John Lackey is regarded by all as the top free agent hurler on the market. However, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone is going to fall all over themselves to throw $100 million his way. In fact, he might have to wait a bit and hope someone gets a bit desperate to hit that figure.

* I wrote yesterday how I thought it was a ruse that Rafael Soriano would accept the Braves arbitration offer in What a Great Monday. Turns out I’ve got that proverbial egg on my face as he did just that. As a result, the Braves are facing the prospect of having to trade Soriano or spend roughly a fifth of their entire payroll on Soriano, Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano has already submitted a group of teams he would like to join with one possible destination being the Orioles who have already mentioned their intention to acquire a closer.

Have heard barely a peep dealing with Matt Holliday. The other big bopper, Jason Bay, appears to be on the short list for teams such as the Red Sox, Mariners and Angels, the club from Anaheim emerging in the last 24 hours as a potentially serious player.

I’m still completely blown away by the Cardinals give Brad Penny $7.5 million with incentives that could take the deal to $9 million. My question is a simple one – why?

If Ivan Rodriguez can get a 2-year deal for $6 million from the Nationals to be a part-timer, why are people freaking that Jason Kendall wants $5 to be a full-time starter? In an odd twist, he might get that starting role by joining Pudge’s old club, the Rangers.

Why are the Brewers looking to trade Corey Hart? Here is a direct quote from my Twitter page. “The Brewers seem intent on moving Corey Hart, though I don’t really know why. Haven’t they heard adage – buy low, sell high?”

Milton Bradley continues to have his name involved in more rumors than just about anyone else. Guess teams are really interested in adding a guy who can’t stay healthy, wears out his welcome in about four months, and constantly torments fans and teammates with his off putting attitude. Only in America can a guy like that make more money in a year, over $10 million, than 99 percent of us will make in our entire lives.

The Giants have been linked to names like Adrian Beltre, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Nick Johnson and Orlando Hudson. The club would prefer to have Pablo Sandoval to play third, but he could easily slide over to first if a third baseman is brought to town. The club could also move Freddy Sanchez over to third if they were to sign a second baseman like Hudson, but a year after struggling for any pop, do they really want a third baseman who is likely to hit about 10 bombs in Sanchez?

By Ray Flowers