Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Failures

Today was a good day. I accomplished all the writing I had hoped to get to, answered a ton of emails, had a strong podcast this morning with Kyle Elfrink, and closed down the day with a nice two hour shift of Live Advice. Before I drift off into the mist of Friday night, and a potential date (keep your fingers crossed), I thought I would wrap up the day with some notes from what is going on around the diamond, so here goes nothing.

Giants fans, here is your catcher update for the week. Bengie Molina is second on the Giants with eight RBI and he is batting .317 through 12 games. Amazingly, he also has two walks already, a breakneck pace for a guy who walked 13 times last year in 132 games (how pathetic is that and the corresponding .285 OBP?). Down on the farm the heir apparent, Buster Posey, is batting .373 through 15 games. Buster also has eight walks against nine strikeouts helping him to post a .457 OBP and a .949 OPS. There is no doubt that Posey already has a better approach at the dish than Molina, but Molina has enough power at the plate, and works very well with the staff on defense, so don’t be at all surprised to see Posey continue to toil away in the minors for a while unless there is an injury with the Giants.

The A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .215 with .308 SLG and a .572 OPS in his first 17 games with his new club. Some other disturbing numbers with KK follow. (1) He is hitting .056 with RISP (1-for-18). (2) He is batting .156 with runners on base. (3) Fifty-eight of his 66 ABs this season have come out of the cleanup spot. The A’s finally dropped him to sixth in the order the other night.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. It’s being called a strain so let’s hope that 15 days on the sidelines will be enough to cure him. Xavier Paul has been recalled from the minors to take his roster spot, though it looks like Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson will likely take Manny’s place in the everyday lineup. None of those three have close to the presence of Manny, and none figure to be able to match his early season work at the dish either (.415 with a 1.159 OPS through 13 games). I really went out on a limb with that statement didn’t I?

The Red Sox have been about as successful throwing out attempted base thieves this season as I have been trying to convince beautiful ladies to go out with me. Let’s just say neither of us has had a high success rate, but I would have to think my mark is better than the what the Red Sox have been getting from Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek (the Sox have thrown out just one of 38 steal attempts). The rumor is that the Sox have an interest in bringing Chris Snyder out east to join their club. Of course, this won’t happen for a while as the D’backs can’t afford to move Snyder at least until Miguel Montero returns from his knee injury. Snyder has thrown out just 25.9 percent of base stealers in his career, and is only 2-for-12 this year (16.7 percent), but the Sox are fairly desperate at this point because of their inept duo.

Ryan Zimmerman is out of the lineup on Friday after injuring his other hamstring. He also figures to miss Saturday’s game, but the belief is still that he should be good enough to go come next week. Cristian Guzman will continue to fill in with Adam Kennedy at second and Ian Desmond playing short.

Ben Zobrist was given a 5-year deal that could be worth up to $32.5 million dollars after last year’s breakout season. Apparently he’ll get about $18 million guaranteed with a couple of option years that could take the deal up to that original total. The Rays aren’t usually wrong with their talent evaluation, and they certainly have to be proactive given their financial situation, but that seems like a fair bit of loot to lavish on a guy who has only one full big league season under his belt.

Finally, here are a couple of links to stories I wrote on Friday.

What are the Cubs thinking with their move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen? Impact Report: Gorzelanny/Silva/Zambrano.

For those of you who have a special place in your heart for hockey, here is a quick jaunt around the frozen pond where I discuss all the first round playoff matchups. Frozen Pucks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

MLK Special

I know, I know, it’s Martin Luther King day which is a holiday, and I’ve already been castigated at the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page for being so stupid as to work on the holiday. Still, I couldn’t help myself, I just had to get a few thoughts on the page before taking the afternoon off prior to attending the San Jose Sharks game with the Calgary Flames tonight.

* Eric Byrnes wants to return to the Bay Area in 2010. Injuries have ruined his play the past two years, and he is owed $11 million in 2010. However, whoever picks him up at this point is only on the hook for the veteran minimum as the D’backs will have to foot the bill for the rest. Byrnes grew up in the Bay Area and was a Giants fan as a kid, so this would be a great story. The Giants could certainly use a solid depth outfielder with energy, and if healthy, Byrnes is just that type of guy. Will the cheap ass Giants pay the major league minimum for the guy? Hard to cry poor when the cost is that low.

* Johnny Damon continues to float in the sea of free agency with no land in sight. Apparently no one wants a guy who can hit .280 with 20 homers and 90 runs scored. Oh yeah, his agent is Scott Boras so the fact that he is asking for $197 million might have something to do with the fact that he has been cast adrift.

* Kevin Kouzmanoff will play third base most of the time this season for his new club – the Athletics. The club is looking at Eric Chavez, if healthy, to fill a utility role playing third, first, possibly some outfield, and even some shortstop. I’m not kidding, shortstop. It was his position growing up, but an aging player with a bad back – does it make sense to move him over there at this point? To read more about the Chavez situation click on Susan Slusser’s piece.

* The Nationals are a mess. Make a decision will you! They still aren’t certain what they are going to do with Cristian Guzman and Ian Desmond. Most assumed that Guzman would move to second with the younger and more athletic Desmond taking over at short. However, the Nats continue to be tied to Orlando Hudson which would almost certainly leave Guzman at short and Desmond at Triple-A to start the year.

Even more of a concern to me is that the club seems uncertain with what they are going to do in the ninth inning. Despite signing Matt Capps, there are still words coming out of Washington that even though he will get the first shot at the closers role that he is far from a lock to hold down the role. “I’d probably start with Capps and go from there,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “There are times you’re facing a ball club such as the Phillies, where they’ve got a strong left-handed lineup, that it might be Sean Burnett or Eddie Guardado, and then maybe you give it to Capps or Brian Bruney or whoever’s freshest.” Seriously Mr. Riggleman? If you go with Burnett or Guardado for any length of time your tenure as the manager in Washington will be short. Stick Capps in the ninth, use Bruney in the 8th, and save Burnett/Guardado for matchup work in the seventh and eighth. That’s a recipe for success.

* Jim Thome still can’t find a home. Odd how no AL team wants a DH who will hit 25 homers with a .365 OBP.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 15, 2010

In my look around baseball today I’ll discuss a myriad of topics that are in the news. (1) Who will Johnny Damon signs with? (2) Matt Kemp/Chad Billingsley agree to deals with Dodgers. (3) Adam LaRoche officially signs with D’backs at the expense of Eric Byrnes. (4) Orlando Hudson still teamless. (5) Ben Sheets and Derrick Turnbow try to convince teams they are worth signing. (6) Does Carlos Delgado have anything left? (7) Indians catching situation.

By Ray Flowers

The Last Man

I have nothing to say about the Dodgers or Kim Kardashian, I just like to look at her so I put her picture at the top of this piece.

There is one day left to vote on for the final player to be added to each league’s All-Star team for next week in St. Louis. If you need a little bit of perspective on who are the best choices in each league, here are my thoughts.

Note: I’m purely addressing who is the most qualified option paying no attention to position or what the All-Star squads may or may not need given how the rosters are configured.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chone Figgins, 3B, LAA: .310-1-27-63-24 in 318 ABs
Figgins has produced the average that he didn’t last season (.276), and he is on pace to return to the 40-steal plateau that he reached in 2005-07. He isn’t hitting well against lefties (.227) but he is smoking righties to the tune of a .342 mark. He ranks 11th in the AL in average, fourth in steals and he leads the junior circuit in runs scored.

Brandon Inge, 3B/C, DET: .267-19-54-48-2 in 285 ABs
Really scuffing of late hitting just .205 with a .655 OPS the past two weeks, Inge has been a life saver for the Tigers, and for those fantasy leaguers who have been running him out there as a catcher eligible player. Though he has played exclusively third this season, if we compare his numbers to the other catchers he leads the way in home runs and is second in RBI to Victor Martinez (57). As is, he leads third sackers in homers and his 54 RBI are second to Evan Longoria (64).

Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX: .252-20-54-60-17 in 333 ABs
Never has a potential 30/30 season from a second basemen looked so bad. The reason is that .252 average. Kinsler, who hit .322 in April, has hit .226 over his last 60 games. Still, he is tied for the position lead with Aaron Hill in home runs, is second to Hill in RBI (59), is second in runs (Brian Roberts has 62) and he is tied with Roberts for first at the position with 17 steals. That’s a whole lot of top shelf work, minus the batting average.

Adam Lind, OF, TOR: .308-18-57-49-1 in 321 ABs
He has been a breakout star all year, and he just keeps hitting. Still, his numbers don’t really stand out until you compare him to other AL outfielders and realize that he has more homers than Torii Hunter (17) while he has knocked in more runs than all but two others (Jason Bay has 71, Hunter 65).

Carlos Pena, 1B, TB: .228-23-55-59-1 in 294 ABs
Leads the AL in home runs, but other than that, his performance has been awful including being second in the league with 106 Ks, and don’t even get me started about how absurd it is to be considering a man who is hitting .228 for the All-Star team.

5. Pena
4. Lind
3. Inge
2. Figgins
1. Kinsler

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cristian Guzman. SS, WAS: .310-3-21-41-3 in 297 ABs
The opposite of Pena above, this man’s value is totally batting average driven as he has as many home runs this season as Paul Konerko hit on Tuesday night. Guzman also has no speed at all – those three steals are the same as Tyler Greene who has only seen the field enough for 104 at-bats with the Cardinals.

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD: .307-10-45-44-19 in 306 ABs
Kemp still hasn’t developed the power that some believe he one day will, but it’s tough to down a guy who is hitting over .300 with a pace that would result in 85 runs, 85 RBI and 35 steals. Oh, and you want to make sure he is always in the lineup if there is a lefty on the hill as he simply murders them (.384/.483/.630 in 73 ABs).

Mark Reynolds, 3B, ARI: .265-24-62-53-14 in 309 ABs
Yes he strikeouts out at an embarrassing rate (114 Ks or one per 2.71 ABs), but the man still produces as he leads the position in home runs and RBI while he is third in steals behind Wright (20) and Emilio Bonifacio (18). Not many players go 25/25 with 120 RBI (it’s only happened 16 times in big league history).

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF: .328-13-48-38-3 in 287 ABs
This is exactly the type of guy the league should be looking to publicize. Portly, a free spirit quick with a smile, and one hell of a young hitter, the Kung Fu Panda has it all. He has a better batting average, more home runs, more RBI and a higher OPS than David Wright (.322-5-42 with a .878 OPS). Nuff said.

Shane Victorino, OF, PHI: .306-6-39-60-13 in 330 ABs
Pains me to list this guy fourth in the NL, but others have been more impressive. Still, he is the only outfielder in the NL who is hitting at least .300 with 60 runs, 10 steals and 100 hits. That should result in some love shouldn’t it?

5. Guzman
4. Victorino
3. Kemp
2. Reynolds
1. Sandoval

By Ray Flowers

Nationals Fever!

The Nationals stink, and the only fever they are likely to induce is one accompanied by vomiting. They are 11-21 on the year, the worst record in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have some intriguing stories from a fantasy perspective. Here are a few of those players and my thoughts on what to look for from each guy.

Nick Johnson is healthy, and he is once again productive. He had four hits on Wednesday to give him six hits the past two games against the Giants to boost his average up to .333. Johnson also knocked in seven runs in those two games. Dude can seriously swing it, but he has only one 500 at-bat season in his six “healthy” seasons. Still, per 162 games in his career, Johnson has produced an average line of .271-20-81-87-6, so he certainly should have some corner infield value in mixed leagues with health, especially when you consider that his average is up to .287 since the start of the 2005 campaign.

Cristian Guzman had three hits on Wednesday to boost his average to, get this .390, .033 points better than teammate Ryan Zimmerman who has been getting all the publicity for his 30-game hitting streak which he lost after going 0-for-3 on Wednesday. As for Guzman, he hasn’t walked a single time this season through 21 games, which makes his average even more impressive. In his last 10 appearances he has produced at least two hits eight times. Wow. Dating back to the start of the 2007 season Guzman has hit, sit down before you get dizzy reading this number, .327 in 853 at-bats. He certainly doesn’t do it the way you like to see eschewing plate discipline in his pursuit of hits, but he has somehow found a way to take his game to a whole other level despite the fact that he owns a mere .273 career batting average in almost 1,200 major league games.

In the “it just goes to show you that numbers aren’t the only answer to a question,” Shairon Martis improved to 5-0 on Wednesday as he held the Giants to one run in seven innings (that’s right, he has 45% of the team’s victories). He allowed only two hits relying on his fastball/change-up combination, but at the same time he continued to tempt fate with four walks and only two strikeouts. I wrote in The Chopping Block earlier this week the following: “Mixed leaguers would be best served to stay away from Martis unless he undergoes a drastic shift in his pitching style, which as we all know is unlikely to happen.” Still not going to change my mind there, but those in NL-only leagues who continue to run him out there have to be feeling really good about a end game grab who is now 5-0.

On to the bullpen where we find a total mess at the end of the game. Kip Wells actually appears to be the top option in the ninth at the moment, and he has two saves on the year to go along with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.00 K/BB mark. No major league team should be relying on Kip Wells to play a role of value – it’s not 2003 mind you. Of course, he is a better option than Julian Tavarez who has allowed six runs over his last 4.2 innings to basically torpedo any shot he had at saves. Joe Beimel? Uh, no. Since returning from the DL he has allowed a run in three of five appearances for a total of five earned runs in four innings. The best option the team has is to just go back to Joel Hanrahan who owns a 10.43 K/9 mark along with a strong 3.40 K/BB mark. He has blown three of six saves chances, but he has the stuff to do it and is certainly a better long-term option than the rest of this motley crew.

Oh, and Barry Zito pitched pretty well yet again despite falling to 1-3 as he left the game only to see the bullpen allow two runners to score leaving him with four runs allowed in 6.1 innings. Still, through seven starts he owns a 3.89 ERA and the team has to be happy with that level of production from their fourth starter.

By Ray Flowers