Player Profile: Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth is one productive player, and he’s often being overlooked in fantasy baseball in 2013. Should you join the heard and ignore him, or should you buck that trend and target the Nationals’ outfielder in your fantasy baseball draft?

In 2008 Werth, while a member of the Phillies, went 20/20.

In 2009 he was one RBI and two runs away from a 30-100-100-20 season.

In 2010 he hit .296 with 106 runs scored.

In 2011 he saw his average dip to .232 though he was one steal from yet another 20/20 season.

Last year Werth was limited to just 81 games. But were you aware that he hit a career best .300 last season? Did you know that his OBP was .387, .025 points better than his career mark? Did you know that his OPS was .827, just slightly ahead of his career .824 mark? Despite all of that information Werth is currently being drafted just inside the top-50 at the outfield position. That must mean he is a potentially valuable add on draft day, right?

It’s a surprise to many that the following statements are true about Werth’s 2012 season (remember he was limited to just 81 games played so his overall numbers are a bit skewed).

If Werth maintained his pace through 81 games last year over the course of a 162 game season he would have hit .300 with 84 runs scored and 16 steals. That’s a pretty good season, isn’t it?

Did you know that his .300 batting average was better than Matt Holliday (.295), Alex Gordon (.294) and Yoenis Cespedes (.292)?

Did you know that his .387 OBP was better than Austin Jackson (.377), Shin-Soo Choo (.373) and Carlos Gonzalez (.371)?

Did you know that his .827 OPS was better than Bryce Harper (.817), Jason Heyward (.814) and Curtis Granderson (.811)?

How is a guy like that being drafted to late?

The most obvious thing to point to is that Werth missed half of the games last season. On the plus side he had appeared in at least 150 games each season from 2009-11 so recent history would seem to suggest that he has a good chance of rebounding in 2013.

Perhaps people look at the eight steals and aren’t impresses. As I noted though, he was on pace for 16 steals over the course of a full season. From 2009-11 he averaged 18 steals a season.

Perhaps people aren’t buying the .300 average. It was a career best, and he does own a .267 career mark. Why was his average elevated last season? His GB/FB ratio was 1.08, just slightly above his career 0.95 career mark. His 12.2 percent walk rate was just above his 12.1 percent career mark. His 18.9 percent line drive rate was a three year high but still below his career rate of 20.4 percent. Nothing going on there explains why his average went up. Two key points that I’ve yet to mention. After posting a career K-rate of 24.0 percent, Werth cut that number down to 16.6 percent last season. That’s damn impressive. Since that mark had never been below 22.5 percent since 2003 it makes you wonder if he can hold on to that again (the odds say he won’t). If he can it would go a long way to supporting his strong batting average. The other factor to look at is that .356 BABIP. That’s a really big number, but perhaps his give back in that column won’t be as pronounced in 2013 as some might think. (1) He owns a career mark of .327. (2) He had a .352 mark in 2010 an a .389 mark in 2007 showing that he can produce at that level for the course of a season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

The other issue that has many nervous is his lack of pop last year, and I get why people are nervous there. From 2008-11 Werth never hit fewer than 20 big flies and averaged 27 homers a seasons. Last year he hit five, a pace that would equal 10 homers. Part of the reason that his power dissipated was the injury to his wrist that landed him on the 60 day DL. I say it all the time – hand/wrist injuries can sap a players power, especially right after they return. However, there is more to it than that. He simply didn’t perform up to normal standards. Remember earlier when I noted that his GB/FB ratio was a bit higher than normal at 1.08? That still isn’t a huge number, the league average was about 1.20 last season, so it’s not like he was hitting a ton of ground balls. However, his fly ball rate was 38.9 percent. That was the first time in four years he had failed to post a mark of 40 percent (his career mark is 40.8 percent). That’s a rather minor thing though an certainly doesn’t speak to a 50 percent drop off in homers. The reason that happened is that his HR/F fell to 5.3 percent. Not only is that about half the big league average, it’s a massive drop off for a guy who owns a 14.4 percent career mark, and one who had posted a mark of at least 12.3 percent each of the previous five seasons. As long as his wrist is healthy, he should see his homer total go back up.

So what to do with Werth? The National announced that they were moving Bryce Harper’s spot in the batting order. Harper will hit third behind Denard Span and Mr. Werth. That’s a great spot for Werth as he will see a lot of fastballs so that Span will have a harder time stealing and so that the game’s greatest phenom isn’t always coming to bat with players on base. With health there is a very reasonable expectation that Werth will provide numbers like he always has, and that means a .270-20-65-85-15 type of season is very well within the realm of possibility for a guy who it looks like you may be able to tab as your 4th or 5th outfielder. I like the sound of that a lot and so should you.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Last season only two outfielders in major league baseball had more RBIs than Josh Willingham while only four outfielders hit more homers than Willingham. In retrospect it was a bad decision to view Willingham as nothing more a mid round draft pick in fantasy baseball on draft day in 2012 (many expected the move to Minnesota to erode his value somewhat). Should that view be changed, that Willingham is nothing more than a solid option for 2013, or should he be an early round draft pick because of the power that led to 35 homers and 110 RBIs last season?

By the way, Josh Hamilton (128) and Ryan Braun (112) had more RBIs. Hamilton (43), Curtis Granderson (43), Braun (41) and Ginacarlo Stanton (37) had more homers. As I also pointed out the other day in Things You Should Know, his production last season leaves a very favorable impression when his numbers are compared to those of Giancarlo Stanton.

Here is what I know.

Willingham set a career-high in homers in ’12. He had never hit 30 homers in a season before with his previous best being 29 in 2011.

Second, Willingham set a career-high with 110 RBIs. He had never reached 100 RBIs before (98 in 2011).

Third, Willingham set a career-high with 85 runs scored. His previous best was 75 back in 2007.

Part of the reason for all those counting category high’s is that he set a career best with 145 games played in his seventh season (his 615 plate appearances were also a career best). It should be noted though that this fella has failed to reach 525 at-bats in any season as a big league player (just pointing that out). Willingham has long been an injury risk and just cause he was out there a lot in 2013 shouldn’t cause you to forget that since he became a full-time player he has averaged 131 games a season meaning that over the past seven years he’s averaged a full month of missed games. That’s something you need to keep in mind when evaluating Willingham.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

As for the power, the guy does have 64 bombs the past two years, so it’s pretty hard to write his pop off as something anomalous. It’s also pretty impressive that he hit 29 homers in 2011 in Oakland and 35 in Minnesota in 2012 despite Park Factors in the home run column of 26th and 14th. Neither park is a homer haven by any means. The fact is that Josh has posted HR/F marks of 17.5 and 21.2 percent the past two years, both big numbers (career 15.5). I won’t say it’s a pace he can’t sustain though as he has proven that he can have that level of success. He also hits a lot of fly balls, over 48 percent in two of the last three seasons, so his homer total pretty much rests upon how many games played he can drag his body out onto the field.

IF Willingham can remain healthy, he still has three major issues in the fantasy game.

(1) He isn’t a very good all-around hitter. A career .261 hitter, Josh has hit better than .268 only once in seven years (.277 in 2006). He’s consistently league average. That’s all he is.

(2) He never steals a base. For his career he’s swiped 32 bases, and in four of the past five years he’s been limited to four or fewer thefts.

(3) He plays in the outfield, a position that has a lot of strong hitters, so his offensive exploits aren’t over the top good, especially with no base stealing speed and an inability to do anything other than match the league average in batting average. He’s just not an exciting player, especially when you toss into the mix his injury filled history.

I’m not saying Willingham is useless, he’s far from that. You can’t be useless if you are 11th in baseball with 64 homers the past two years and 8th in RBIs (208) – eighth (who knew?). But consider that he is tied for 55th in runs (154), is 92nd in batting average (.253) and 133rd in steals (15 tied with seven others). Toss in the fact that’s he’s failed to play 140 games in four of the past five years and that he plays outfield, and there just isn’t the pull for his services that you might think there should be. Willingham is a solid add for a club, but don’t go reaching or you will end up being disappointed (there is a chance others will view him the same way and he will fall on draft day in which case he would become a solid target – it’s all about the cost with this slugger).

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Outfield

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2012 OUTFIELDERS Top-20

1 Ryan Braun
2 Matt Kemp
3 Carlos Gonzalez
4 Justin Upton
5 Jacoby Ellsbury
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Matt Holliday
8 Michael Bourn
9 Curtis Granderson
10 Hunter Pence
11 B.J. Upton
12 Ginacarlo Stanton
13 Shane Victorino
14 Nelson Cruz
15 Josh Hamilton
16 Adam Jones
17 Jay Bruce
18 Shin-Soo Choo
19 Brett Gardner
20 Jayson Werth

Braun was my #1 player heading into the year. He may have been edged out by Mike Trout for the honor of the best player in fantasy baseball, but Braun was simply amazing and just as good as he was in his MVP effort of ’11.

2011: .332-33-111-109-33
2012: .319-41-112-18-30

Kemp hit .303 with 23 bombs, 69 RBIs, 74 runs scored and nine thefts in a tremendous letdown season. Still, his pace for 160 games would have led to an effort of .303-35-104-112-14. If he did that, would you have complained?

CarGo produced a third straight 20/20 effort though he also had three year lows in homers (22), RBI (85), runs (.89) and OPS (.881). All things considered though, he was still an elite fantasy performer.

J. Upton was terrible. Just ask one of his owners. Justin had only 17 homers and 67 RBIs a year after 31 and 88. But was he really as bad as you thought? Not even close despite the popular perception. Upton hit .280, two points better than his career mark, stole 18 bases (he averaged 20 the previous three years), and scored a career best 107 runs, the second highest total in the NL. So much for a terrible season.

Ellsbury appeared in 74 games, the second time in three years that he didn’t make it out onto the field for half the Red Sox games. The talent is undeniable, but his inability to stay healthy is a huge concern, as is the fact that he hit just four homers in 303 at-bats. Remember, he had 32 of his career total of 56 homers in just 660 at-bats in 2011 meaning he has 24 homers in his other 1,675 ABs.

McCutchen dominated as every talent evaluator in the game thought he could. Andrew went 30/20 and just missed out on also going 100-100 as he had 96 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Toss in a .327 batting and you have a top-5 fantasy campaign.

Holliday was supposed to struggle without Albert Pujols, remember? Uh, no. Holliday hit .295 with 27 homers, 102 RBIs and 95 runs scored for the Cards.

Bourn was pathetic at the dish hitting a mere .225 over his final 70 games, but in summation his season was an unqualified success as he hit .274 (career .272) with a career best nine homers and 57 RBIs. Toss in 96 runs (one off his career best) and 42 steals, and he had another elite fantasy season.

Granderson, somewhat surprisingly, hit 43 homers with 106 RBIs and 102 runs scored giving him 2-straight years of 40-100-100. However, he also failed to hit .250 for the third time in four years, and his maddening stolen base trend continued. Here are his steals totals since 2007: 26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and 10.

Pence hit a career worst .253 with a career-low five steals. The good? He hit 24 homers with 104 RBIs, the second number being a career best. A solid though somewhat disappointing effort.

B.J. Upton started the ball rolling late because of injury, but by the end of the season he was a mere two bombs short of his first 30/30 effort. Upton only hit .246, but this was the 5th straight 30 steal effort and a second straight 20/30 performance. He also recorded 79 runs for the 6th straight year.

Stanton flashed his unsurpassed power with 37 homers and 86 RBIs in just 123 games played. What was really surprising to see was the .290 batting average, a number that he will find it hard to replicate given his approach at the plate (143 Ks just 46 walks in those 123 games).

Victorino struggled for large portions of the year and his .255 batting average was a major disappointment as were his 5-year low in RBIs (55) and his 6-year low in runs (72). At least he stole 39 bags, a career best.

Cruz appeared in 159 games, a shocking total for a player who had never taken the field 130 times. Amazingly, his per at-bat numbers were four years worsts as he hit 24 homers with 90 RBIs on the year. Those are solid numbers, but more was expected from him if he was healthy able to play 150+ games. He also isn’t running anymore with eight steals in 2012 and 17 the past two years (he stole 37 bases in 2009-10).

Hamilton had a monstrous season batting .285 with 43 dingers, 128 RBIs and 103 runs scored. For the most part he kept himself out of trouble, and he even managed to play 148 games, a four year high. An effort like this was always possible, but he was as low as he was in my rankings because of the constant off the field concerns and his inability to stay healthy making him a sizable risk. For one year those concerns disappeared.

Jones hit 16 homers in the first 51 games before slowing down the rest of the way to end the year with 32 big flies, a career best. He also stole 16 bases and scored 103 times, more career bests, as was his .287 average (by three points). Add in 82 RBIs and you’ve got yourself one hell of a campaign.

Bruce was very good, but far from the breakout star many predicted. Still, his yearly improvement is impressive and historic.

2008: 21 homers, 52 RBIs
2009: 22 homers, 58 RBIs
2010: 25 homers, 70 RBIs
2011: 32 homers, 97 RBIs
2012: 34 homers, 99 RBIs

Choo didn’t make it all the way back to his 2009-10 heyday, but he was damn impressive (.283-16-67-88-21). His season really took off when he was inserted into the leadoff spot (.310/.389/.493 in 99 games).

Gardner’s elbow literally had him on the edge of a return like six times. In the end he hit .323 with two steals in 16 games after swiping 96 bases with 185 runs scored in 2010-11. A massive letdown.

Werth hit .300 with a .387 OBP, tremendous numbers, but he only appeared in 81 games with five homers, eight steals and 31 RBIs. Just not what his owners, or the Nationals, were hoping for.

Hit: Alex Rios (#23), Dexter Fowler (#33)
I highlighted Rios as the best option outside the top-20 at the position, and for that I drew derision from many fantasy circles. I had the last laugh though as he hit .304 with 25 homers, 91 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 23 steals. Efforts like his win fantasy championships. Fowler was another player that people shied away from, and while his effort wasn’t as good as that of Rios it was still plenty helpful (.300-13-53-72-12 in just 454 at-bats).

Miss: Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence
Misses due to injury: Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Carl Crawford (#21)

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

The MLB playoffs are just about ready to get underway, so baseball is on the cusp of starting its “second season.” Before we get there, let’s take a look back at the just completed regular season. I’ve found a few numbers there that are certainly worth taking note of.

How many players in baseball have gone 40-100 the past two years? The answer is one. He’s also the only player who has, obviously, gone 40-100-100. He’s also the only option in the game, redundancy anyone?, who has gone 40-100-100-10 the past two years. The answer is Curtis Granderson. Sure his average dropped to .232, and his OBP fell to .319, and those numbers aren’t good in any world, but he’s as impressive a counting number performer as there has been in baseball the past two years. Granderson is a faster version of Adam Dunn, you’ll just have to learn how to work around his so-so batting average (Granderson has hit .247 the past four years, so you shouldn’t have been shocked to see his .262 batting average from last season fall).

How many pitchers in the AL won 15 games while striking out 200 batters? You’ve got your standard in Justin Verlander (17, 239), and if you thought of Verlander you most likely also also hit on Max Scherzer (16, 231) who also led baseball with a K/9 mark of 11.08 (that mark allowed Scherzer to post the 19th best single season mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 162 innings). Given that he is starting the AL Wild Card today you probably also thought of Yu Darvish (16, 221) who had a very successful first season in the States even if he walked too many batters (89 in 191.1 innings). Hopefully you also remember the guy who appears to have a strong shot to win the AL Cy Young Award, the man who tied Jered Weaver for the league lead in wins (20), and that is David Price. The Rays’ lefty won 20 games, struck out 205, posted a 2.56 ERA and had a 1.10 WHIP. So here’s the question. Who is the lone pitcher in the AL to win 15 games and strike out 200 batters who I didn’t mention? The answer can be found below.

Brandon Moss had an amazing run for the A’s to close the year that included a .690 SLG over his last 26 games. When the season was over he had accrued only 265 at-bats, but boy did he use them to great effect. Moss was a tremendous weapon for the A’s as he hit .291 on the year with a .358 OBP and .596 SLG. Moss also drove in 52 runners while scoring 48 times as he had a great season for a guy who struck out nearly a third of the time. The most amazing part of his effort? Let’s look to the home run. Moss hit 21 of them in just 296 plate appearances. No player has ever hit more than 21 homers in under 300 palte appearances. The others who have hit that mark are Art Shamsky (1966), Johnny Blanchard (1961), Kevin Maas (1990) and David Ross (2006). How about that?

The most dangerous “pull” hitter in baseball in 2012 was Giancarlo Stanton, and when you read the numbers I’m about to list your eyeballs might fall out of your head. Stanton hit .507 in the 140 at-bats in which he pulled the ball. That’s 71 hits in 140 at-bats folks. His SLG mark was 1.164. His slugging was 1.164. His OPS? Get out the video game. That number was 1.671. Stanton also hit 24 homers in at-bats when he “pulled” the ball. That number didn’t lead baseball though. The leader in “pull” home runs was none other than Mr. Curtis Granderson who had 37 homers in 201 at-bats.

ANSWER: The fifth pitcher in the Junior Circuit to pull off the 15-200 trick in 2012 is a teammate of one of the other four. Still not able to narrow it down? A hint. He struck out 15 batters in his final start of the season. That man is none other than James Shields who won 15 games with 223 Ks. Shields also won 16 games with 225 Ks last season. Why not keep the good times rolling? How many hurlers in baseball have won 15 games with 220 Ks each of the past two years? The answer is two – Verlander and Shields.

By Ray Flowers

To Sum Up

The 2012 regular season is over. Special congratulations should be handed out to Miguel Cabrera for winning the Triple Crown, and to the Orioles who made the playoffs winning 93 games a year after they lost — 93 games. To celebrate the end of the regular season I thought I would list some of my favorite tweets of the last 24 hours. You are all following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, right? If you are this will seem a bit redundant, but it’s still nice to have all the tweets in one spot. Don’t make me come looking for you in the offseason. Sign up. It’s free, hopefully entertaining, an always informative.

@BaseballGuys Will Miguel Cabrera win AL MVP? 5 times a player has won TC and not been MVP: Williams (’42, ’47), Gehrig (’34), Klein (’33) & Hornsby (’22)

@MLBStatoftheDay Since the start of play on June 4, the @Athletics own a 70-37 record – the best in @MLB.

@MLBStatoftheDay Craig Kimbrel’s 0.654 WHIP is 3rd lowest in history for a pitcher with at least 50 IP, behind Dennis Eckersley’s 0.607 in ’89 & 0.614 in ’90

@MLBStatoftheDay Chase Headley is first @Padres player since Dave Winfield in 1979 to finish the season as the NL leader in RBI.

@ESPNStatsInfo Adam Dunn struck out 222 times this yr, the most in AL history and 2nd-most in MLB history (Mark Reynolds, 223 in 2009).

@ESPNStatsInfo Fernando Rodney posted an 0.60 ERA this season, the lowest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 50 IP.

@ESPNStatsInfo Cliff Lee is the 1st pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1900) to strikeout 200 batters and have 6 or fewer wins in a season.

@Jonathan_Gantt Best pitching staff ever to not make playoffs? 2012 Rays led @MLB in ERA (3.19) and opp. avg. (.228) and led AL with 1,383 Ks.

@MikeDiGiovanna Torii Hunter pulled after two ABs, closes year with .313 average, oldest player since 1957 to hit .300 first the first time.

@STATS_MLB Curtis Granderson is the fifth Yankees outfielder to hit at least 42 home runs, joining Maris, Ruth, Mantle and DiMaggio.

@beckjason In 5 seasons of AL ball, Miguel Cabrera now owns back-to-back batting titles, 2 home run crowns and 2 RBI titles.

@Haudricourt Aramis Ramirez finishes with .300 average, 50 doubles, 27 HRs 105 RBI. Not to bad as Prince Fielder’s replacement.

@richardjustice The Athletics used 16 players in clinching the AL West. GM Billy Beane acquired 9 of the 16 in the last 10 months.

@SBerthiaumeESPN Athletics join ’06 Twins, ’51 Giants as only teams whose only day alone in 1st place was the last day of the season.

@susanslusser Athletics 1st in history to win a division or pennant when trailing by 5 games or more w/ no more than 10 games left.

@PeteAbe $103 million later, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched 668.1 innings in 6 years for the RedSox with a 4.52 ERA.

@ESPNStatsInfo Orioles are now 29-9 in one-run games. According to Elias, that’s the best win pct since 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms (14-4)

In the coming days I will start to break down players as we start the inevitable process of looking toward the 2013 season. I will also review how my teams did this year, and let’s just say I gave better advice this year to others than myself. With that I hope that everyone had a successful fantasy season in 2012. Enjoy it. Soon enough it will be time to start focusing on what lies ahead in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Movies, TV, Hotties & Baseball

I had an odd weekend. There was less booze than I anticipated. There was less fun than I anticipated. There was about the level of worry on Sunday for fantasy football as I expected (I’m in too many leagues to worry about certain plays or players in Week 1). There was a great novel (The Bourne Supremacy by Robert Ludlum, who by the way was one hell of an author. If you’ve seen the movies with Matt Damon it’s still worth your time to read Ludlum’s three novels as they have little to do, in plot at least, with the Hollywood films). At least there was plenty going on in the world of baseball to hold my attention.

Curtis Granderson has socked 35 homers for the Yankees this year on his way to 86 RBIs and a .235 batting average after his five RBI effort Sunday (he’s also scored 85 times). Still, he’s looked an awful lot like Adam Dunn with his all or nothing approach. Over his last 53 games, that’s a third of a season, Granderson has hit .213 (Dunn is hitting .208 on the year for the White Sox with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored). The counting stats are great, but that’s an awfully high price to pay in the batting average category.

Nick Markakis will have surgery on his broken left thumb Tuesday. The Orioles are hopeful that they will make the playoffs and hang around long enough for us to see Markakis again this season. Don’t count on that happening. Regardless, Nick’s regular season is over. Thanks to hitting .335 with a .390 OBP over his last 54 games Markakis will end the year with a .298 average and .363 OBP, numbers nearly identical to his career marks (.295 and .365). He’s not an elite fantasy option, but he’s solid an about as consistent as they come.

I watched The Change Up this past week, a stupid film in which Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds party, pee in a fountain while drunk, and miraculously change bodies (apparently the fact that they made a “wish” while urinating in the fountain caused the goddess statue in the fountain to grant them their drunk wish – to live the others life. I told you it was a stupid movie). Why the hell would I bring this clunker up? Olivia Wilde. She is, simply put, gorgeous. If you look into those eyes and don’t feel a tingle, you aren’t a lover of women.

Mike Napoli is ready to rock as his quadriceps muscle is finally strong enough for him to go out and perform in game action. He’ll begin his rehab assignment at Double-A Frisco Tuesday. A big time disappointment after being a top-3 catcher selection in nearly every league this year, Napoli has hit just .233 with 17 homers and 40 RBIs this season, light year from the pace that saw him net a .320 average, 30 homers, and 75 RBIs in 2011. Still, Let’s compare his 2010 effort in 453 at-bats, to the pace that his effort this season would net him in 453 at-bats (he actually has 301 this season).

2010: .238-26-68-60 with a .784 OPS
2012: .223-26-60- 68 with a .771 OPS

I don’t see any difference at all there, do you?

Alexei Ramirez was scratched from the White Sox lineup Sunday since he showed up late to the ballpark (maybe he was watching Olivia Wilde in something?). When he has made it to the field on time Alexei has been fairly productive in the second half hitting .284 with a .771 OPS, numbers that are very similar to the .278 and .733 career marks that he owns. With one more homer he will also post his 5th straight 10 homer season, and it will also be his 4th 10/10 season in five years (he stole only seven bags last year or he would have pulled off the double/double in all five of his big league seasons).

If you like spy shows, comedy, cartoons, hell if you have any taste, you have to check out Archer on FX if you haven’t already. It’s flippin awesome — and I hate that word, but it truly fits.

B.J. Upton is trying to put the slow start he had to the season behind him. The elder Upton bashed three long balls Sunday giving him six homers in his last 11 games. His overall numbers include a mere .256 batting average, but he’s driven in 66 runs, has scored 65 times, and has gone 20/20 yet again (21 homers, 29 SBs). This is the third 20/20 effort of his career, the second in a row, and with one more steal he’ll also have 5-straight efforts of at least 30 thefts. He’s a ballplayer that brings everything in the fantasy game, other than batting average of course.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: Augus16, 2012

Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27

First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.

When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.

First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase

It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.

Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.

The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.

I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox

I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.

Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).

The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?

I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.

Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski

Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.

Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill  is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.

If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.

In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie

Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.

Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Player Profile: Grady Sizemore

“We don’t expect Grady Sizemore to play 150 to 160 games like he has in the past,” said  GM Chris Antonetti. “But we expect him to play the vast majority of games next year.” Is that the quote you wanted to read if you were hoping that Grady Sizemore would have a big bounce back season in 2012? Despite the proverbial bar being set extremely low, the Indians invested a relatively minor $5 million backing Sizemore on a one year deal to allow him to return to Cleveland (there are incentives worth $4 million based upon plate appearances an another $500,000 that he could pick up if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year award). How should Sizemore be viewed in the fantasy game for 2012? With extreme caution in my book.

From 2005-2008 Sizemore was easily one of the top-10 outfielders in the fantasy game. In that four year span the average Sizemore effort resulted in 27 homers, 29 steals, 81 RBI and 116 runs scored.  Each of the four years he went at least 20/20 with 100 runs scored, and in 2008 he upped the bar to include 33 homers, 90 RBI and 38 steals (all three of those numbers were career bests). Then, the bottom fell out for Grady. He appeared in just 106 games in 2009. He followed that up with a mere 33 games in 2010. In 2011 things got better, but only marginally, as he appeared in 71 games. Injury after injury with the guys wheels kept him out of action. As a resulted of all the issues with his knees, Sizemore has not only been unable to drag his body out onto the field with any regularity, he’s also failed to generate any type of productivity when he has been on it.

Grady has stolen a mere 17 basses in his last 210 games played. Remember, this was a guy who averaged 29 steals a season over his last four healthy campaigns. Just as disconcerting for Sizemore is the fact that he not only stopped running, he stopped hitting as well. In 832 at-bats over the past three seasons Grady has batted .234 which is .029 points below the league average and .035 points below his career mark. Sizemore also produced a mere .314 OBP, .017 points below the league average and .043 points below his career mark. Finally, his SLG was .413, .006 points below the league mark and .060 points off his career mark. Don’t forget either, that when I say his “career mark” I’m including the poor numbers we’ve seen from him the last three years. If we remove those three awful years, the gap at each number grows substantially. From 2004-08 his slash line was .279/.370/.491 compared to his marks the last three years of .234/.314/.413. That’s like comparing Curtis Granderson to Vernon Wells. I also neglected to mention that he has hit a total of 18 homers over his last 832 at-bats or one every 46.2 at-bats. Prior to the onset of injury, Sizemore averaged a homer every 24.3 at-bats.

So Grady has stopped running, and it would appear he’s also stopped hitting. He’s now coming back off yet another procedure (Sizemore had surgery on his right knee in October, and he never really seemed to make a full recovery from a much more serious microfracture operation on his left knee prior to the 2011 season). While everyone is putting on a happy face, the truth is that it’s been four years since we saw the “real” Grady Sizemore. It’s been four years since he hit at the major league level. It’s been four years since he got on base at the major league level. It’s been four years since his SLG was at the major league level. It’s been four years since he stole bases at anything resembling his previous all-star levels. Now we get his own GM telling the world that the team hopes he will be able to play most of the time in 2012 but that even they aren’t expecting that to mean that he will take the field 150 times in 2012. Does that sound like a guy you want to be rolling with in your fantasy league?

Draft Sizemore at a point where you feel comfortable that his performance will match his cost. Do not draft Sizemore at a point where you think his cost will match his performance. It’s been years since we’ve seen the Sizemore that we all remember building our fantasy rosters around, an until I see that Sizemore on the field, I’m not going to reach for Grady on draft day. If you take a shot on him as your 4th or 5th outfielder in a mixed league, I’d be fine with that, but know full well that the chances of him going 20/20 with 100 runs scored in 2012 is about the same as it is that Mr. Wells will pull off that same trick for the Angels.

By Ray Flowers

Exclusive Clubs

Every fellas dream is to be at some club surrounded by Playmates. I’m not embarrassed to say it, and neither should you be. However, it merely takes some cash or knowing the right people to get into that club – there’s no skill involved (you’d better have a lot of cash or some serious “game” if you want to stay in that club). You can’t say the same thing about the men listed below who unlocked the door to their clubs based solely upon their skills.

THE 30/30 CLUB

Ryan Braun has 31 homers and 31 steals. The homers aren’t a surprise, he averaged 32 a season his first four years in the big leagues. The steals are a surprise however. He stole at least 14 bases each of his first four seasons but his previous career best was 20 back in 2009.

Matt Kemp has 34 homers and 40 steals. That’s a career best in homers as he has upped his homer total every season of his career (seven, 10, 18, 26, 28 and 34). It’s also a career best steal total and the third time in four years he’s swiped at least 34 bags.

THE 25/25 CLUB

Jacoby Ellsbury is two homers away from joining the 30/30 club. He has 28 homers and 37 SB. He had 20 homers over his first four seasons and swiped 120 bases in his last two healthy season. Yeah, it’s been a confusing season.

Ian Kinsler has 29 homers and 25 steals. This is the second time in three years that he has reached those totals. He went 30/30 in 2009.

THE 40/20 CLUB

Curtis Granderson is having a masterful season for the Yankees highlighted by a career best 41 homers and 24 steals on the base paths (he needs two more steals to match his career best). His most impressive number this season though might be his 133 runs scored.

THE 30/20 CLUB

Justin Upton has 31 bombs and 21 steals. Not bad for a 24 year old who could get even better.

THE 20/30 CLUB

B.J. Upton isn’t the player that his younger brother is, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a highly productive ball player. B.J. is the owner of 21 homers and 30 steals for the Rays.

THE 20/20 CLUB

Carlos Gonzalez has 26 homers and 20 steals. It’s his second straight 20/20 effort.

Andrew McCutchen has 23 homers and 22 steals for the Pirates. He joined the club for the first time in 2011.

Chris Young, a teammate of Justin Upton, recently joined the club. He has 20 homers and 20 steals, the second straight year he has pulled off the trick and the third time in his career.

By Ray Flowers