The Verducci Effect

I don’t normally completely steal someone’s idea when putting together an article, but in this case I’m going to do just that. Of course I will give full accredidation, so don’t go reporting me to the principle for stealing someone’s work.

Tom Verducci is a well known writer for Sports Illustrated, and a few years back he had a discussion with pitching guru Rick Peterson that led Mr. Verducci to the position about the innings pitched increase youngsters often face from one year to the next. Ultimately what he started espousing was that youngsters who realized a significant increase in innings pitched from one season to another were at an increased risk of breaking down or seeing their productivity decrease in the following season. Ultimately the research that was undertaken led to the Verducci Effect which states the following:

Pitchers who are 25 years old or younger, who see an innings increase from one year to the next of 30 frames or more, are at a greater risk of injury or ineffectiveness in the following campaign.

Now there is some debate about whether or not you should blindly accept this postulate as an accurate depiction of what occurs on the field – Michael Weddell did a study for BaseballHQ in which he determined there really was no increased risk of a burnout or injury in the following campaign – but logic obviously leads to the position that a major increase in inning pitched from one year to the next isn’t likely to be a good thing for a developing arm. I do think that too much is made of innings pitched in some circles, to me a more effective way to look at pitcher’s workload is to track pitches per start, and perhaps even more importantly pitches per inning (those high stress, big pitch count innings can be really detrimental). However, the Verducci Effect speaks to innings pitched, so let’s work with that.

Am I overly concerned when a young arm goes from 125 to 155 innings? Not really. I would be more concerned if that 30 inning jump shot a guy from 180 to 210 innings pitched. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned when that innings pitched mark begins to substantially increase. Here are some of the men highlighted by Verducci as risks in 2011.

Madison Bumgarner (21 yrs old, 214.1 IP, +73 IP): This is a scary increase total in my mind, both because of the innings pitched number, and because of the age of Madison. He is a big kid, listed at 6’4″ and 215 lbs, and his performance in the playoffs was dominating suggesting that the innings weren’t an issue (he was 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 20.2 innings). Still, his IP increase is more than double the baseline for concern with the Verducci Effect, and even if Mr. Verducci is only 50 percent right, the doubling of his suggested baseline makes me 100 percent concerned with Bumgarner.

Alex Sanabia (22 yrs old, 170.2 IP, +66.1 IP): The youngster made 12 starts late in the year with the Marlins, but only three times did he reach triple digit in pitches (with a high of 109). He did have some soreness in his arm late in the year, though there is no way to tell if that was related to the substantial innings pitched increase.

Mat Latos (23 yrs old, 184.2 IP, +61.2 IP): Here’s the big worry with Latos – he has been on this list two years in a row. Moreover, his innings pitched increase has been massive from 56 to 123 to 184.1. That’s right, his innings pitched mark has gone up more than 60-innings in each of the past two years. I don’t need the Verducci Effect to tell me those are scary numbers. You think this massive innings increase is at least party to blame for Latos’ struggles down the stretch last year (1-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over his last seven starts)?

David Price (25 yrs old, 221.1 IP, +58.2 IP): The Rays are as careful as any organization in the game with how they treat their pitchers. Given that, and the fact that Price is a bit older than the others on this list, I’m not as concerned as a might be if some other hurler boosted his innings total by nearly 60 frames.

Brandon Beachy (24 yrs old, 133 IP, +57 IP): Beachy pitched only 15 innings for the Braves but he did well with a 3.00 ERA an a 9.00 K/9 mark. He did struggle to throw strikes with a 4.20 BB/9 mark, a total that was double the rate he posted in the minors (2.10 per nine). Was that because of wear and tear on his arm or because of the level of the competition? We need more data to be sure.

In the end, common sense might be the best direction to take here. Would I take Jon Garland over Mat Latos because of the youngsters massive innings increase the past two years? Of course not. However, if I was debating between Latos and Dan Haren, well, then it’s a different story.

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought

I’m going wild about pitching today as I point out a few pitchers who actually pitched better than you may have thought they did during the just completed 2010 season.

Scott Baker had elbow surgery this fall, but he should be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training. Should you care after he posted a 4.49 ERA for the Twins in 2010? Heck yes you should. Baker had a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best, and though he also posted a 5-year high with a 2.27 BB/9 mark, his K/BB mark was still 3.44. Toss in 148 Ks, and Baker was one of just eight pitchers – eight – in all of baseball to have a 7.80 K/9, 3.40 K/BB, 145 or more K’s and a walk rate under 2.30 per nine. Look at the others on the list: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The eighth guy? He is another hurler I would look to buy low on in 2011, and that is James Shields. There is no way that Shields should once again lead the AL in homers allowed (34), and he certainly won’t allow another BABIP mark of .354, especially considering his career mark is just .316. You also have to factor in that Shields posted a K/9 rate of about a batter better than his career mark of 7.38 at 8.28. Guys with K/9 rates that high who also post a 3.67 K/BB mark just don’t post ERA’s over five very often (Shields was at 5.18). In fact, over the past 11 years, Shields season is one of only two by a hurler with at least an 8.20 K/9 mark, a 3.65 K/BB ratio an an ERA over 5.00. The other season like that was authored by Ricky Nolasco in 2009.

Chris Narveson just barely posted an ERA in the four’s at 4.99 over 37 appearances, including 28 starts. How in the world could he have pitched better than that number looks? Well, things clearly took a turn for the better in the second half of the year as everything simply clicked for Chris. Over his last 14 appearances, all starts, Narveson was 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That’s some seriously strong pitching. He also posted a decent 2.75 K/BB ratio as batters hit just .231 off him over those 81 innings. He’s no ace, but once the draft hits the late rounds next year, don’t forget about this Brewers’ starter.

A.J. Burnett. There, I said it, and now people are running for the exits right? Hear me out before you go pulling the alarm lever.

Burnett was terrible late in the year (3-8, 5.95 ERA over his last 15 starts), but his overall performance, other than a rather precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (6.99 in 2010, 8.23 for his career), really wasn’t awful compared to his career levels. Burnett did lose a mph off his fastball, but he was still throwing it 93 mph, so there likely wasn’t an injury. Secondly, his walk rate was 3.76, which is almost spot on his career mark of 3.78. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a three year high, but that mark was 1.09 in 2009 and 1.25 in 2007, so it wasn’t that far off his recent performance. His BABIP of .319 was a bit above his career .297 rate, but it was lower than the .328 mark he posted in 2008. His GB/FB ratio was a bit down at 1.20 (career 1.49), but it was better than his ’09 mark (1.09). And for goodness sakes, his line drive rate was a 3-year low (17.6 percent) and the second best mark in six years. Burnett will be an afterthought on draft day 2011, and I’m telling you, he has a chance to produce a nice return on investment if the cost is low enough.

By Ray Flowers

Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 27, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.

(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.

(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.

(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?

(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.

(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.

(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.

(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 16, 2010

(1) Jake Peavy has an arm issue. Does that mean Daniel Hudson is close to be recalled?

(2) Tim Lincecum takes a liner off his shoulder – appears to be OK.

(3) Carlos Ruiz slumping, missing time with injury for the Phillies.

(4) Alex Rodriguez back from hip injury after missing about a week.

(5) Giants still hoping to get Pablo Sandoval to lose weight.

(6) Conor Jackson to play everyday in LF for the Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Starting Pitchers

The following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. This list represents my top-10 starting pitchers heading into the ’09 campaign. Let this list be reason number 1,976 as to why it makes little sense to draft a starting pitcher early as they are just so volatile. What do I mean? Take a look at the list. The top guy made his fewest starts since 2002. The #5 guy was a huge disappointment. #6? He made all of one start, and #7 pitched his fewest innings since his rookie year in 2002. And it’s not like I chose crazy hurlers for my list. Of the nine Fanball employees who ranked the top-10′s at each position, here is the total of how many times each of those injured pitchers were mentioned.

Johan Santana – nine
Brandon Webb – nine
Jake Peavy – eight

Just goes to show you that taking hitters early in drafts is likely the safer play. Now on to a review of my list.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. CC Sabathia

4. Roy Halladay

5. Cole Hamels

6. Brandon Webb

7. Jake Peavy

8. Dan Haren

9. James Shields

10. Felix Hernandez

Santana won 13 games with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP though he did toss only 166.2 innings his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003. Reports are that his arm should be 100 percent by opening day 2010.

Lincecum actually improved in his second full season winning his second straight Cy Young. He lowered his ERA by 0.14 down to 2.48, his WHIP by 0.12 (down to 1.05), and held batters to an anemic .206 BAA, .015 points below his ’08 mark. The best thing going – end of story.

Sabathia had a terrific first season in pinstripes giving the Yankees exactly what they paid for. He won 19 games, struck out 197, posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while eating up 230 innings. A free agent signing who delivered handsomely.

Halladay continues to be a throwback to years gone by. He tossed nine complete games, produced four shutouts, twirled 239 innings and along the way won 17 games for a poor team. He also posted a sub 2.80 ERA for a second straight year, an unheard of occurrence in the AL in this age of offense.

Hamels was terrible if you look only at the results (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, a deeper look at the numbers says that he was extremely unlucky (a .325 BABIP can be blamed – it was .289 and .270 the previous two years), and therefore he should rebound in 2010.

Webb made that one start and his year was over with a wonky shoulder that required surgery. He is back in the desert on an option year deal with the D’backs in his attempt to reassert himself as a top flight option after 5-straight years over 200-innings.

Peavy finally was moved from San Diego to the White Sox, but his year was marred by an ankle injury and later some issues with his elbow that limited him to a mere 16 starts. He posted 110 Ks and a 1.12 WHIP in 101.2 innings but will likely find success harder to come by in a hitters’ yard in Chicago.

Haren was spectacular at the start of the year (9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP prior to the All-Star game) before pulling his now annual second half fade (5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Still, no one in the game was disappointed with his final numbers: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings.

Shields had his worst season in three years seeing his sub four ERA rise to 4.14 while having his WHIP rise to 1.32 (it had been under 1.16 the previous two seasons). Still, he lasted more than 215 innings for a third straight year though he’ll need to reign in the free passes a bit to return to his previous levels.

Hernandez, in retrospect, should have been higher on my list, though I can’t give myself too much grief as I was the only one of the nine staffers who had him ranked in the top-10. All he did was go 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP. Not a bad season for a guy who doesn’t turn 24 until April 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Last Day at the Yard

I was watching the Giants battle the D’Backs today and was all ready for a pitchers duel with two of the top-5 pitchers in the NL this season going against each other in Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren in the last home game of the season for the Giants. As often happens in such a matchup only one player came through as Lincecum tossed a two hitter over seven innings (he allowed two runs which of course came after he was removed from the game). If The Freak doesn’t pick up his second straight NL Cy Young Award I don’t know what is up as 15 victories, a 2.48 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and an NL leading 261 Ks certainly say Cy Young to me. As for Haren, he continued his second half slide as he allowed five runs over six innings to drop to 14-10 on the season. Still, a year with a 3.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP is nothing to shake a stick at.

Trivia Question: Do you know how many right-handed batters have hit an opposite field home run in the 10 years of AT & T Park? Look for the answer below.

Why is it that baseball players get suspended for a myriad of stupid things while major league umpires are allowed to act like jackasses on a regular basis with no punishment? In the Giants/D’backs game home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt had a ginormous strike zone that was eliciting complaints from both sides. In the fourth inning he decided to stop calling the low strike that had been there for the first three innings, and Dan Haren barked out in anger for about a second when one of his pitches was called a ball. He then turned away and was heading back to the mound when Wendelstedt decided he wanted to make the game about him. He walked menacingly toward the mound, at which point D’backs pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. came out to calm down Haren. The plan worked, but Wendelstedt wanted his pint of blood so eventually tossed a very calm Stottlemyre from the game. Manager A.J. Hinch then came out, and again, very calming, voiced his displeasure at the proceeding events. Wendelstedt, under the mistaken impression that people had come to the game to see him fire his hand skyward as he chucked people out of the game, then gave the thumb to Hinch as well. Look, sometimes guys deserve to be thrown out, and sometimes they really ask for it by baiting an umpire, but other times (like today) the umpire just has a bee in his bonnet and simply decides he wants to make a statement. Hopefully the league will take a look at this situation and fine/discipline Wendelstedt who seemed to think he was Wyatt Earp at the O-K Corral hauling in the bad guys. By the way, I thought that Kevin Costner played the role better than Kurt Russell when both took a turn at the role in the early 90′s.

One other thing that struck me in the game – when did players forget how to take a pitch? I learned how to turn my shoulder into the plate on an inside pitch to protect my hands as well as my noggin’ (I was thankful that I was taught this when I once took an 86 mph fastball in the ribs during my senior year of high school. So hard was the impact of the pitch that I literally went to my Senior Prom with baseball stitch marks on my left rib cage. Sure it hurt, but who knows what would have happened if I had taken that off my hands). Seems like today’s players have completely forgotten how things works which I was reminded of again today when Chris Young took a curveball off his head (a curveball kiddies). The new breed of athlete has more physical talent then I could ever dream of possessing, but at the same time I think I had better fundamentals when I was 13 years old.

Trivia Answer: Thirty. Despite being just 307 feet down the right field line, AT & T Park has yielding an average of just three opposite field home runs by right-handed batters per season. Talk about a pitchers’ yard.

By Ray Flowers

What Happened to David Price?

“Greatness is hard to define and even harder to attain”

– Ray Flowers

Remember back on draft day 2009 when you started to get that itch to pull the trigger on your first pitcher? You probably waited a few rounds and ended up taking someone like Dan Haren or Josh Beckett as your “ace” and then waited a while to select your second option. You probably then decided to grab a youngster with some upside, maybe a Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson type, and then you were left trying to decide who to grab for your third rotation spot. Did you do the safe thing and take a Matt Garza or Matt Cain, or did you go for broke and select a guy like the young lefty from Tampa that was going to be the next big thing? If you drafted that young man your 2009 season has likely been one of disappointment,

David Price dominated in a brief look in 2008 posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 innings with the Rays before allowing just a single run while striking out eight batters in 5.2 post-season innings on his way to a victory and a save. But the dude is just 24 years old, and as often happens on the road to greatness, reality set in.

First off, Price wasn’t even on the roster when the season started as the Rays sent him down to the minors to hone his pitches. Price posted a 3.93 ERA and a 9.17 K/9 mark at Triple-A in eight starts, but he was also plagued by walks – a 4.72 BB/9 mark clearly being a sign that he still needed to work on his craft.

So what happened when he was called up to the bigs? Predictably he struggled. Price failed to record six innings in any of his first four starts and in six of his first eight trips to the hill. He also struggled mightily with his control walking at least five batters in five of his first eight games. All told, over his first 12 outings, Price posted a 4-4 record while his ratios were far from impressive: 5.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a 5.25 BB/9 mark. Things have gotten better, though that is certainly a relative term, over his last eight outings: 4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 2.62 K/BB mark in 49.2 innings.

The main difference, as it almost always is with hurlers, is his growing ability to locate his pitches in the strike zone. If you throw strikes, success usually follows. Maybe Price can teach that to another young hurler who was drafted early this season yet has failed to even remotely approach the heights that were predicted of him. Who is that hurler? Joba Chamberlain of course. So next time you consider taking that up and coming young hurler in the early rounds of your draft remember that sometimes slow and steady wins the race and guys like Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly might just be better bets on draft day.

A QUOTE FOR THE AGES

Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Fantasy Buffet which can be heard each day at Fanball.com from 8-9 AM PST, found this quote while doing some research a while back, and I thought it would be great to share it with another audience here.

This Day in Baseball – September 7, 1961 – In the midst of his historic run at Babe Ruth’s single-season home run mark, the Yankees’ Roger Maris lays down a bunt in a 7-3 win over Washington. After the game, reporters ask Maris why he bunted. He replied, “Trying to win the game, you stupid ****sucker. Why do you think?” Is this the best quote in the history of baseball?

Possibly the best baseball quote of all-time.

By Ray Flowers