Draft Day Challenge, May 21

BaseballGuys.com. has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Salvador Perez

McCann loves to see Mike Pelfrey on the hill. In 39 at-bats the slugging catcher has hit .462 with two homers and 10 RBIs. Yowzahs.

Perez is batting .3008 on the year and has pushed that mark to .368 over the past week. He’s also hit .323 against righties this year. So what if he doesn’t have an at-bat against Bud Norris.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Jordan Pacheco

What was once a lock now seems like a risk. Pujols has hit .280 with two homers the past week, and he faces Aaron Harang who he hits pretty well (.311 with five homers and 15 RBIs over 74 at-bats).

After going superstar in Pujols (former superstar?), let’s go with a nobody in Pacheco. Jordan has a hit in his last three starts. Jordan is hitting .400 the past week. Jordan has hit .340 at home. He’s hit .500 (18 ABs) against the D’backs in his career. Jordan has four hits in 11 at-bats (.364) against Ian Kennedy.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Brandon Phillips

Uggla hammers Pelfrey hitting .406 with 11 RBIs in 32 at-bats which is enough for me to overlook the fact that he has one hit in his last 14 at-bats overall.

Go big or go home with Phillips. Not only has the guy knocked in 38 runners in 43 games this season, he’s also hit .300 with a homer and seven RBIs the past week. He’s gone 5/13 (.385) with two homers against Jonathon Niese.

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Chavez

Alvarez is only hitting .147 at home this season (and .201 overall), but he’s gone deep twice in the past week, is facing Matt Garza in his first start this season, and has gone 5-for-10 with a HR against Garza in their confrontations.

Chavez is hitting .343 on the year and he’s batting an unbelievable .571 with six RBIs the past week. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who he has never seen before on Tuesday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Didi Gregorius

Escobar has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and he’s driven in six runs in his last four outings. He faces Ramon Ortiz, you know the old guy who we haven’t consistently seen take a turn in the big league since before Obama was elected President.

Gregorius is hitting like he never has in his life before, but we’re not worried about the fact that he has no chacne to keep that up the rest of the way. Didi has one hit in two at-bats against Chacin in his career but he has six hits in his last two games and has gone 8-for-13 against the Rockies this season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nate McLouth
2. Matt Holliday

How excited would you be about a player if I told you he had seven hits, including four doubles, in nine at-bats against a pitcher? That’s what has happened when McLouth has faced Phil Hughes.

Holliday has hit Edinson Volquez hard with a .412 average, two homers and four RBIs in 17 at-bats. Carlos Beltran has also hit .417 with five RBIs in 12 ABs against the righty.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Zack Greinke
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Jose Fernandez
4. Jerome Williams

Greinke looked sharp in his return from the DL and he gets to return to his former home in Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers team that has, get this, produced two hits against in him 34 at-bats. Two. He also faces Hiram Burgos which doesn’t hurt.

Wandy has been very good this season and in four home starts this season he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He faces a Cubs team that isn’t very good offensively, and he’s also posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in their last six meetings.

Fernandez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts allowing a total of five earned runs for the Marlins. He’s also struck out 21 batters in those 20 innings. He faces a Phillies team that is without Howard and Ruiz.

Williams has pitched well this year, there’s no way he can sustain that 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but he faces the Mariners Tuesday. The entire Mariners team has hit .228 with one home run in 114 at-bats against Williams.
By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 9

I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Thursday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer
2. Carlos Ruiz

Mauer is always a good play, period. When he sees John Lackey on the hill he becomes an elite play. Mauer is 10-for-23 (.435) with a couple of big flies against the righty.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly started out on fire since he returned from his PED suspension, and he faces Patrick Corbin who has been nails this season. Still, Ruiz has always had success against lefties (.801 career OPS) and he’s also shown a nice power stroke against lefties with 16 homers and 76 RBIs over 573 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. James Loney
2. Brandon Belt

It’s time to give Loney some props for what has been a phenomenal start to his 2013 season. Not only is he batting .417 the past week but he’s hitting .385 on the season (who’s talking about that?). He’s only 2-for-9 against R.A. Dickey but the knuckleballer has allowed 14 runs over his last 19 innings while losing 3-straight games.

Belt has been in and out of the lineup, and he’s not exactly been impressive when on the field. So why suggest starting him Thursday? He faces Julio Teheran who has allowed batters to hit .333 off him this season pushing his career mark in 54.1 innings up to .301.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Daniel Murphy

Uggla is warming up at the dish (6-game hitting streak including three homers) and he faces Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t exactly been impressive this season (for more on Vogelsong see Mound Mayhem).

Murphy faces lefty Jeff Locke. Murphy likes to face lefties. He’s batting .327 against them this year, he hit .283 against them last year, and for his career he’s hit .281 with eight homers and 63 RBIs over the course of 427 at-bats.

THIRD BASE
1. Martin Prado
2. Miguel Tejada

Prado has been up and down this season (he’s hitting a mere .227 on the year though he does have 19 runs scored in 33 games). He hasn’t exactly hammered Cole Hamels but he has produced 15 hits while striking out only five times in 55 at-bats.

Two veterans square off when Tejada faces Freddy Garcia. In 58 previous at-bats Tejada has hit .310 with 13 RBIs. He’s also hit well this season with seven hits in 19 at-bats (.368).

SHORTSTOP
1. Maicer Izturis
2. Stephen Drew

Izturis has three hits in seven at-bats against Mr. Price of the Rays. Izturis has also hit well the past week with a .286 mark over his last 21 at-bats.

Drew is finally locked in at the dish, and it’s been a while since we could say that (he’s hit .381 with a homer and five RBIs the past week). He’s had some moderate success against Mr. Correia with a .250 average, one homer and six RBIs, but I just feel good about the matchup. Sue me.

OUTFIELD
1. Shane Victorino
2. Jose Bautista

Normally Kevin Correia gets beaten up by a lot of folks. He’s been impressive this season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the Twins but look for Victorino to have some success given that he’s 6-for-14, a .429 average, with a homer and six RBIs.

Bautista hasn’t looked “right” for a large portion of the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him in what seems like a really tough matchup on paper. Bautista has hit .355 with four homers and seven RBIs in 31 at-bats against David Price who hasn’t looked like himself for much of 2013 either.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. David Price
3. Jason Vargas
4. Doug Fister

Guthrie faces his old team, the Orioles, and he’s dominated the players currently on the roster holding them to a .167 average and .460 OPS over 48 at-bats. With a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season he seems like the proverbial must-start.

Look past the 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP of Price this season and you will note that there is still a lot going on there that is positive. Remove Mr. Bautista from current Jays players and you will find that Price has allowed just two homers in 152 at-bats to the rest of the club and that the rest of the unit is hitting just .230 against him as he has gone 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA against the Jays.

Vargas has held current Astros batters to two hits in 27 at-bats. He also tossed a nine inning shutout in his last outing and has dropped his ERA on the year down to 3.72.

And finally for those looking at early games, Fister is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. He faces the Nationals on the road, and batters have hit just .234 against him on the road this season.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla hit an unacceptable .220 last season for the Braves. Unfortunately for him, that seems to be the only number anyone ever looks at. Consider the following data points.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 19 homers were the 5th best in baseball for second baseman? That’s if we slot Ben Zobrist as a second baseman.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 78 RBIs were third at the second base position?

Were you aware that Uggla’s 86 runs scored were sixth at the second base position? He’d be fifth if we removed Zobrist.

Did you know that he was one of three second basemen with 19 homers, 75 RBIs and 85 runs scored? The others were Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill.

Were you aware that his .348 OBP was better than the marks of Dustin Pedroia (.347), Neil Walker (.342), Jason Kipnis (.335), Rickie Weeks (.328) and Brandon Phillips (.321)? Uggla also tied with Joey Votto for the NL lead with 94 walks.

Were you aware that Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball, ever folks, to hit 19 homers with 78 RBIs and 84 runs scored in 7-straight seasons? Moreover, he’s only played seven seasons, and if he repeats those three numbers once again in 2013 he’ll tie the all-time career mark for second baseman with eight such seasons (Jeff Kent).

So after all of that are you really going to sit there and tell me that the reason you lost last season was because of Uggla? Are you really going to tell me he was a huge disappointment? Are you really? I’m not saying that Uggla wasn’t disappointing last season, but I’m trying to keep it “real” as the kids say. His overall season last year was still good, at least in the counting categories (he’s never been an SB threat and in three of the past four years he hasn’t hit .245). That said, his batting average, homer total and RBI marks were all career lows, so I understand the frustration, but let’s not take that to the degree that we blame him for a fantasy squads failures.

The good news is that Uggla walked 94 times, a career best number. He also posted a 0.56 BB/K ratio which was a three year best and above his 0.48 career mark. Yes he was struggling to produce hits, but at least he didn’t totally lose control of the strike zone. That gives me some hope that his batting average could rebound. That’s especially true when I see Uggla with a 20.1 percent line drive rate – a career best. Last year was actually the first time that his line drive mark was ever over 17.8 percent. Despite a career best line drive rate his BABIP of .283 was below his career .292 mark. That doesn’t make a lot of sense now does it? It also doesn’t make much sense that his homer total fell given that his 46.4 percent fly ball ratio was a three year high. The reason that mark fell was that, after 4-straight years of at least 16.0 percent in the HR/F column, the mark fell to a career worst 11.4 percent. Nothing in his track record suggests that 11.4 percent is his new level, so the odds would favor a slight uptick in homers in 2013 for Uggla.

Maybe this is a case of me favoring the old guy, but I don’t see as much downside with Uggla as others. The Braves are going to play him every day, an a worst case scenario in my mind is a repeat of last season. Let me ask you this. If Uggla were to go .245-25-85-85 in 2013 would you take that? I ask because his career average is even better than that at .253-30-89-96. He’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 33 in March, but I’m still seeing enough in this guys efforts, as frustrating as it was to watch last season, that leads me to think that he has a a good chance to once again be one of the better run producing second baseman in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Second Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE

2012 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Ian Kinsler
4 Brandon Phillips
5 Ben Zobrist
6 Dan Uggla
7 Howie Kendrick
8 Rickie Weeks
9 Dustin Ackley
10 Danny Espinosa

Cano is headed to the Hall of Fame – despite what happened to him in the playoffs. You read it here first (OK, maybe not). Cano hit .313 with a career best 33 homers while he knocked in 94 runs and scored 105 times. Stupendous yet again.

Pedroia hit .290 with 15 homers, 65 RBIs, 81 runs and 20 steals, a fantastic season for a mere mortal. For Pedroia though it was his worst full season effort. Give him credit for playing through injuries even if he didn’t live up to expectations.

Kinsler was one homer from going 20/20 with 100 runs scored, but for the third time in four years he hit in the .250′s. That low average seems to be a small price to pay for a guy who averages 25 homers, 81 RBIs, 115 runs ans 27 steals per 162 games in his career.

Phillips came into the year being overlooked by a few, but in the end he was what he always is – a superb play at second base. Phillips hit .281 with 18 homers, 77 RBIs, 86 runs scored and 15 steals. Ho hum, another impressive effort for the Reds’ second sacker.

Zobrist will qualify at second, outfield and shortstop next year meaning he will be one of the most sought after players in the fantasy game. For the second straight season he hit 20 homers with 70 RBIs and 85 runs scored, and for the 4th straight year he swiped at least 14 bases.

Uggla had more homers than any NL second baseman other than Aaron Hill (26) and Rickie Weeks (21) with 19, and his total of 78 RBIs was second only to Hill’s 85 in the Senior Circuit. Still, it was a down season as both numbers were career worsts. He still scored 86 runs though that .220 batting average made his overall effort lackluster given his stature in the game.

Kendrick had a great season for a second sacker in 2011 with a fantasy line of .285-18-63-86-14. He failed to match that effort in ’12 with a fantasy line of .287-8-67-57-14. He finished two homers short of a 10-10 season for a 4th straight campaign but at least he hit .287 so he didn’t kill you.

Weeks was the worst regular in baseball in the first half as he hit .199. Things improved greatly in the second half when Weeks finally remembered that he is one of the most talented second basemen in the game. Over his last 76 contests Weeks hit .261 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs, 51 runs and 10 steals. The 21 homers, 63 RBIs, 85 runs and 16 steals were solid, but there is that .230 batting average hanging over his head to diminish his value.

Ackley was the #2 selection in the 2009 Draft and the thought was that he would be able to contribute immediately with his advanced approach at the plate. Well, it didn’t happen in 2012 as he hit a sickly .226. His others numbers were passable for a middle infield option – 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 84 runs, 13 steals – but the average was a killer. Had surgery in the offseason for an ankle issue. He’ll be fine well in advance of the start of next season.

Espinosa was a liability with his .247 average, but he was a noticeably better than Ackley in the counting categories with 17 HRs, 56 RBIs, 82 runs scored and 20 steals. Unfortunately he also struck out a vomit inducing 189 times. He’s been virtually the exact same performer in each of his two full seasons (.236-21-66-72-17).

Hit: Daniel Murphy (#14)
I was made fun of for spending too heavily on Murphy in NL LABR, but he certainly justified my support. While he didn’t do anything that really stood out (.291-6-65-62-10), his overall body of work was pretty darn solid for an NL-only play considering that he qualified at first, second and third base.

Miss: Dustin Ackley

By Ray Flowers

MLB: The Final Friday

The Dodgers gave Andre Ethier a 5-year, $85 million deal signaling that he is one of the building blocks of their offense. Then we get this. Manager Don Mattingly said the following about Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching. “I can say all day long that I think he’s capable of hitting against lefties, but if the numbers keep telling us that maybe he can’t, then we have to go a different route,” he said. I’m not going to disagree with Mattingly because he’s right. Ethier is hitting .214/.269/.319 against lefties this year, a terrible batting line. For his career, the numbers are only slightly better at .236/.295/.350. The truth is the Dodgers gave a platoon player an $85 million contract. Has a contract ever looked worse before it actually took effect?

Dexter Fowler may or may not start again this season even though x-rays of his left wrist came back negative. He played some defense Thursday, so he just might still get some work at the dish, but it’s no lock. It’s been an uneven ride for Fowler this year but it’s hard to complain when he’s hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals and 72 runs scored. Fowler has also gotten on base at an impressive .389 clip, and that .474 SLG ain’t too shabby either. He’s hit .315 against the lefties and .293 against the righties showing an ability to handle both thanks to his switch hitting, but his work away from Coors is still an issue. Dexter has hit .332 with a .984 OPS in home games but just .262 with a .720 OPS on the road, so that continues to be an issue to think about when setting your lineups next year.

Gio Gonzalez won his major league leading 21st game Thursday night. While that is a career best mark and highly impressive in it’s own right, there is this. If he doesn’t start again (he shouldn’t), he will end the year with 21 victories and 199.1 innings pitched. That is significant because it will make him the first hurler in big league to record 21 victories while throwing less than 200 innings. The first.

When $50,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to.

The best pitcher in baseball is Craig Kimbrel. Thanks to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution for pointing the following out: over his last 49 appearances Kimbrel has a 0.55 ERA, which is amazing. He’s posted a 0.46 WHIP which is stupendous. He struck out 92 batters leading to a 16.78 K/9 while walking just six batter leading to a 15.33 K/BB ratio. Folks, it just doesn’t get any better than that.

Dan Uggla has had the worst season of his impressive career. After 6-straight years of 27 homers, 82 RBIs and 84 runs scored, the longest streak in baseball history for a second sacker, he’s going to fall off the pace this season. Still, 19 homers, 77 RBIs and 85 runs scored are all solid marks. However, that .217 batting average is terrible, even for a fella who has hit .253 for his career. I can’t blame the Braves for being a bit weary but it should be noted that, in addition to the solid counting number production, that Uggla also has a .343 OBP which is an exact match for his career mark even with that career-low batting average thanks to a career best walk rate.

STRONG FINISHING KICK
(The Past Two Weeks)

.591 – The BABIP of Brandon Moss over his last 44 plate appearances. Chris Nelson is just behind at .550 followed by Joey Votto at .500.

.439 – The batting average of Justin Smoak who has also gone deep five times. He needs one homer for 20 homers for the season. Over at Fleaflicker it’s clear that no one is buying his hot couple of weeks.

.438 – Marco Scutaro’s batting average over his last 12 games during which time he’s also scored 12 runs while knocking in 11.

.417 – Ichiro Suzuki is finally hitting. Not just that, he’s running like it was the old days. He’s stolen seven bases the past two weeks, the same total as Everth Cabrera, the most in baseball.

6 – The league leading homer total of Miguel Cabrera who also leads the majors with 16 runs scored and 15 RBIs. The RBI total has also been matched by the Phillies’ Ryan Howard though he’s saddled his teams with a mere .188 batting average.

By Ray Flowers

Fun With Numbers

There are only a couple of weeks left in the 2012 MLB regular season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a whole host of numbers that are of interest as we head toward the playoffs.

.241: The league leading BABIP of Jered Weaver which is one point better than his teammate, Ervin Santana. While it’s not logical to think either man will replicate that number in 2013, it should be noted that Weaver has always been a pretty darn impressive in his ability to hold the hits at bay. Weaver has posted a BABIP under .280 each of the past three years, and last season that mark was a mere .250. Santana is no slouch in his own right with marks of .288 and .272 the past two years.

.323: Dan Uggla’s batting average over his last 10 games. Uggla is batting a mere .214 on the year, but he is just the #2 away from a lot of statistical milestones. Uggla has 18 homers, 68 RBIs and 78 runs scored for the Braves.

1: The number of homers that Yadier Molina needs to record his first 20 homer effort. He’s also two runs scored from his first 60 run effort and three RBIs short of his first 70 RBI campaign. He’s not Buster Posey (.333-22-93-73), but Molina is darn close as he’s also rocking an impressive .320 batting average that is fourth in the NL.

1.014: The OPS of Rickie Weeks in the month of September. Weeks has been flat out killing it the last two plus weeks. In the 15 games in the month of September he has gone deep seven times, stolen four bases, knocked in 14 runners and scored 14 times. That is the definition of elite level production folks. The .231 hitter on the season has also hit .280 over his last 69 games putting behind in the dreadful start he had to the campaign.

2: The number of homers and steals that Andrew McCutchen needs to have his first 30/20 season. Andrew’s 28 homers are already a career best, he’s one off his career best of 89 RBIs, and he just reached 100 runs scored for the first time. He’s also those two steals from a 4th straight 20 theft season and he will also set career bests in AVG (.343), OBP (.412) and SLG (.569) as his previous career bests are .286/.365/.471. However, he’s now three points behind Melky Cabrera for the NL batting title lead as he he hit .252 in August. He’s rebounded to hit .327 in September so we will see if he can catch the admitted cheater.

2.5: According to Dave Smith, founder of Retrosheet.org, teams may be paying too much attention to who they have working the 9th inning. According to his research, teams leading by one run after eight innings have won nearly 86 percent of the time. Moreover, since Mariano Rivera became the Yankees closer in 1997 the Yankees have won 97.2 percent of the games that they were leading heading into the 9th inning. The lowly Pirates, to compare, have won 94.7 percent of those games which may lead to the following contention – teams are patently overpaying their 9th inning arms because, statistically speaking, there isn’t as much difference between an elite closer and a group of solid arms working the 9th inning.

3/5: The number of homers and steals that Mike Trout needs to complete his remarkable run to 30 homers and 50 steals (he obviously has 27 HRs and 45 SBs). There have only been two such seasons in the history of baseball. Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals in 1987 (he went 27/80 in 1986) while Barry Bonds, then of the Pirates before his muscles outsized his brain, had 33 homers and 52 thefts in 1990. One other note. Since I’m obnoxious and wont let things go… Trout is hitting a robust .329 on the year, including .317 in the second half, but that average has dipped to .280 over his last 43 games.

16/19: The homer and steals total of Danny Espinosa this year. He’s undergoing an MRI on his left shoulder today so it remains to be seen how much he will be able to build on those numbers. He won’t get to 20/20, but 15/15 as a second baseman ain’t all that bad now is it?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Brandon Phillips vs. J.A. Happ: Just like Uggla below, Phillips doesn’t have much of a track record against the pitcher he is facing. At the same time, what he has done is  hard to ignore. In nine at-bats Phillips has five hits leading to a .556 batting average against Happ. Three of those five hits were dingers, and that has helped to push his RBI total top five in this tasty matchup.

Ryan Theriot vs. Paul Maholm: Looking for an under the radar play on Friday? If you are, it would be wise to look to the Giants’ Theriot who has had quite an extensive run of success against the lefty with the Cubs. Theriot has hit .343 with a .410 OBP in 35 at-bats against Maholm over 35 at-bats.

Dan Uggla vs. Stephen Strasburg: How in the world could I suggest starting a guy against a pitcher who has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP an a 10.86 K/9 mark? It’s been a mere eight at-bats but Uggla has had phenomenal success against the righty from Washington with six hits including two homers leading to seven RBI. Pretty darn amazing.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Wade Miley vs. Padres: The young lefty has held his own and then some through 10 appearances this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He still has a poor 2.00 K/BB ratio, that 5.50 K/9 mark is weak, and two homers in 52.1 innings – let’s just say that isn’t likely to continue. Still, in this matchup against the Padres in Petco, it’s lock and load time.

Felipe Paulino vs. Athletics: The A’s have a historically bad offense, an I’m not making that up. Paulino has a 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 Ks through 31.1 innings this season. Moreover, three of his five outings this year he has held the opponent scoreless. I’m going to ignore his lone performance against the A’s last September 5th (4.1 IP, 6 ER).

Randy Wolf vs. Pirates: Why not complete the trifecta of starters against the worst offenses in baseball? Wolf has struggled this year big time (5.73 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he has looked better of late allowing three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also facing a Pirates club that he has gone 9-3 against in his career with 112 Ks in 124 innings. Plus, the club from Pittsburgh has the lowest average in the NL (.218), the worst OBP in baseball (.272) and has scored 17 runs less than any other club in the game (147).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Ludwick vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Wandy has pitched well this season, and the perception is that Ludwick has really struggled this year. The truth is in the middle perhaps. Ludwick has had a lot of success against Wandy with two homer an a .314 batting average in 35 at-bats against the lefty and he’s also gone deep twice while knocking in eight runners in his last eight games.

Hanley Ramirez vs. Cole Hamels: HanRam has barely been a .250 hitter since the start of the 2011 season and he’s also hit a mere .264 against Hamels in 53 at-bats in the match up. Why in the world would I suggest paying close attention to Hanley on Friday then? Of the 14 hits that Hanley has against the lefty Ramirez has 10 doubles. Ten. That’s a pace for 100 doubles over 530 at-bats. Wow is right. Is it a stretch to think that he could lift one of those pitches into the seats?

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Gavin Floyd: Ichiro has struggled this year, at least when compared to his previous levels of excellence, but he’s pretty much looked very much like the guy we saw for most of 2011. Middling. Still, Ichiro has a track record of success against Floyd as he has hit .361 in 36 at-bats. Given that Floyd has also allowed 21 runs in his last 14.2 innings it would seem like a pretty good time to trust Ichiro.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mat Latos vs. Astros: Latos has been uneven this year, all those that own him understand that, but he’s won his last four decisions and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings during which time his ERA has gone down from 5.97 to 4.58. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only four walks in his last three starts, so as long as he can keep the ball in the park – he allowed an amazing five homers in his last start – he should have a solid outing against an Astros club that he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP against in his career.

Ricky Nolasco vs. Phillies: Off the top it sounds a bit crazy, but think about it. Nolasco will be facing a Phillies club without Howard/Utley, Jimmy Rollins can barely hit his way out of a papersack right now,  and Carlos Ruiz is less than 100 percent physically. There’s also the fact that Nolasco has long had success against the club from Philly going 6-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 83.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. D’backs: Volquez pitches at home Saturday, and he’s had a ton of success there this season even though his record is 1-3 (3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 Ks in 42.1 innings). He faces a D’backs club that he held to two runs in seven innings in his second start of the year, and in his career he has 28 punchouts in 24.1 innings against the club from Arizona. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts this season. It’s not always pretty, sometimes he has trouble throwing strikes, but he has been able to limit the damage, for the most part, in his first year in San Diego.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Who is the greatest hitting second baseman of all-time? Could it possibly be the Atlanta Braves second sacker, Dan Uggla? OK, it’s stupid to say that Uggla is the best hitting second baseman ever, I’d give that title to Rogers Hornsby in a landslide, but that doesn’t mean that Uggla isn’t in the conversation for being tabbed the greatest power hitting second baseman ever. Think I’m nuts? Read on.

Dan Uggla hit an anemic .233 in his first year in Atlanta, his worst effort of a less than impressive batting average run in his career (he owns a .258 mark and that mark doesn’t figure to improve much given that he has struck out at least 149 times in each of the past five seasons). However, Uggla hit only .185 in a horrid first half so hitting .233 wasn’t that bad given the context (he batted .296 over his last 69 games). He’s never going to be a big help in the batting average category, it’s just not his game. Uggla also isn’t going to ever steal a bag. That’s not exactly true, he has stolen seven bases the last three years (whoopee), but you get the point. So two of the five fantasy categories Uggla is a zero, but in the other three he is an otherworldly hero.

Homers

Uggla hit a career best 36 homers in 2011.

Uggla has hit at least 30 homers each of the past five years.
(A) Only five men at any position have hit 30 homers the last five years.
(B) No other second baseman has ever had more than 2-straight 30-HR seasons. Ever.
(C) In fact, no other second baseman has more than three 30-homer seasons in their career.

Face it, Uggla has had the most dominant 5-year power run in second base history. Add in his 27 homers as a rookie and I can also say, without a single doubt, that he has had the greatest 6-year power run at the position in the history of baseball.

Runs Batted In

Uggla had 82 RBI in 2011, the worst mark of his career. That means he’s posted at least 82 RBI in 6-straight seasons – ever year he has been in the big leagues. Those six seasons of 82 RBI are the 4th most in history for a second baseman (Hornsby 10).

Runs Scored

Uggla scored 88 runs in 2011, and that was the sixth time that he has recorded at least 84 runs. That ties him for the 5th longest streak at the history of the position (Hornsby 10).

Add all of that together and Uggla is the only second baseman in baseball history to hit 27 homers with 82 RBI and 84 runs scored in 6-straight seasons. Moreover, that six year run matches the longest streaks of such vaunted players as Joe DiMaggio, Mike Schmidt, Frank Thomas and Todd Helton. Not bad eh?

Uggla has his warts, and they are on full display for everyone to see. At the same time his power bat is simply elite. Uggla is an excellent addition to any fantasy club at second base, just make sure that you craft your roster to give you average and speed from other positions.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 11, 2011

(1) Alex Rodriguez to start minor league work Friday – return next week likely.

(2) Dee Gordon to DL – in comes Jamey Carrol.

(3) Rafael Furcal not exactly tearing it up.

(4) Waiver-wire adds, pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake, John Lannan.

(5) Waiver-wire adds, hitters: Will Venable, Jose Constanza, Mike Carp, Juan Rivera, Rick Ankiel.

(6) Dan Uggla up to 31 games with hitting streak.

By Ray Flowers