(1) Jose Reyes likely out three weeks for Mets.
(2) Is Dan Uggla as bad as you think?
(3) Everyone is freaking out about Drew Stubbs – why?
(4) Who is Jeff Karstens and should you care about him?
(5) Pablo Sandoval is hot – 17-game hitting streak.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Interleague play messes with players.
(2) Dan Uggla still can’t get her going.
(3) Jake Peavy to the bullpen?
(4) Daric Barton headed to minors?
(5) Ryan Vogelsong continues to amaze.
(6) Tommy Hanson dealing with shoulder woes.
(NOTE: After this video was posted the Braves put Hanson on the 15 DL after an MRI revealed shoulder inflammation).
By Ray Flowers
It’s sunny outside, congressman Anthony Wiener is finally resigning over “Weiner-gate”, and the San Francisco Giants are in first place. All is right in the world. Well not quite, but I’m gonna try to stay positive today in the face of the horrendous actions of those people in Vancouver who decided to act like Neanderthals last night after the Canucks fell to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup finals.
Chad Billingsley hit a new low last night allowing seven runs while making it through only four innings. That pathetic effort came on the heels of a 4.2 innings, six run outing on June 10th. Moreover, Chad has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts to drive his ERA up to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.52. If he didn’t have his name, he’d likely be on a whole lot of waiver-wire’s this morning. That’s being positive? Wait, it gets better, I promise.
Should you dump him Billingsley because of his recent stretch of failure? I say no. The easiest way to understand why I say that is to look at Billingsley’s xFIP (figured the same way as ERA, it takes into account those factors that are directly in the pitcher’s control while normalizing for a league average home run rate).
2008: 3.58
2009: 3.99
2010: 3.67
2011: 3.65
Billingsley is pitching the same as he always does, it’s just not showing up in the results. If you don’t believe xFIP, look at these numbers.
2011: 2.11 K/BB, 1.44 GB/FB, 0.61 HR/9
Career: 2.10 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 0.66 HR/9
I’m not saying if you own him you should continue to run him out there right now as he is getting pounded, but hold fast if you can. This obviously means Chad is a wonderful hurler to try and buy low on if you’re looking to bolster your pitching staff.
How the mighty have fallen. Did you see that the Angels released Scott Kazmir yesterday? At one time one of the brightest left-handed starters in baseball Kazmir, who won 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 2007, allowed 30 runs in 15.1 innings in the minors this season leading to the easy decision made by the Angels. It appears that his devastating slider simply ruined his arm. As a rookie his average fastball was 93.7 mph and last year it registered a mere 90.5 mph. His big league career could be over at age 27. So much for staying positive today like I said I would at the top of the piece.
Joe Mauer should be back in action on Friday for the struggling Twins. If you own him get him immediately back into your lineup. At the same time, you’d best hold on to whichever catcher you’ve been riding in his absence since I’m far from convinced that he’ll be able to play nearly every day.
Jorge Posada has been tearing it up the last two weeks hitting .444 over 36 at-bats. However, he didn’t hit a homer in that stretch and he’s still hitting only .227 on the season.
Welcome to the party Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies’ shortstop has two bombs, six RBI and four runs scored in his last three outings. There’s no way around the position that he has been a disappointment at time this year, but even so he’s still on pace to steal more than 30 bases, to score more than 90 times and to hit 14 homers with 64 RBI. Those are still pretty darn solid numbers for a shortstop aren’t they?
Speaking of disappointing shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki is probably second on the list behind Hanley Ramirez when you consider what preseason expectations were. Bit should he be? Tulo is on pace for 31 homers, 110 RBI and 14 steals, so don’t feel too sorry for those who took him in the first round this season.
The last 30 days… Dan Uggla has hit .133, B.J. Upton .136 and Adan Dunn .156. Think of how bad your team would currently be performing you had rostered all three of those guys this draft season. The crazy thing is, if I walked away from the draft table with those three I’d have been pumped. Guess that’s why they play the games.
By Ray Flowers
Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.
Do you expect Dan Uggla to come back to life?
– @EadlRosa
Let me repeat my oft head comment about Uggla, though apparently I haven’t said it enough as people continually send me notes about giving up on Uggla. In each of the last five seasons, the only five seasons he has been in the majors mind you, Uggla has hit 27 homers, had 88 RBI and scored 84 runs. In the history of baseball, as long as they have been playing the game, no second baseman can match that streak. Ever. In fact, no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years. That doesn’t mean that de facto Uggla will get there again this year, it’s merely meant to illustrate his historically excellent consistency. I’m going to trust those five years over 49 games of poor performance in a Braves uniform this season when trying to determining the value of the 31 year old second baseman.
In terms of his current performance, his K-rate has been at least 25 percent each of the past four years, and he’s currently at 21.1 percent. However, he just can’t hit em’ where they ain’t. His current BABIP is .197, and that’s only .098 points below his career mark. He could pull an Aaron Hill, we saw what that meant in 2010 for the Blue Jays’ second baseman, but the odds are strong that Uggla will rebound the rest of the way.
Kevin Youkilis for Ike Davis and Dan Uggla in a 6×6 league with OPS?
– @RyanSchwep
Youkilis was injured an ineffective in April only to break out in May as he’s hit .338 with a 1.027 OPS and 17 RBI in 19 games. That run of games has upped his numbers back into the pantheon of third basemen (.275-8-32-29). Like Uggla, Youkilis is exceedingly consistent as he has hist at least .288 with a .390 OBP in each of the last four seasons. When you toss in his eligibility at first and third base, you have a player who is clearly a difference maker. In addition, because of his ability to get on base, Youkilis has posted an OPS of at least .958 each of the past three years, and his mark of .964 from 2008-10 is the best mark in the American League and second in baseball (Albert Pujols, 1.074). To compare Uggla, who I mentioned above, doesn’t possess the ability to hit for an average or to get on base like Youkilis, and the best single season OPS of his career is .877.
Davis is out with an ankle issue. He has resumed some baseball related activities, but he still hasn’t begun running yet (the hope is that he could return late this week). There is always risk adding a player coming back off injury, especially so when that player has all of 652 big league at bats. I’m not going to sit here, and yes I do type these reports sitting and not standing at my homemade bar (this Manhattan is pretty good actually), and say that Davis is overrated, but I think people are a little ahead of themselves in terms of their expectations. Though he’s hitting .302 this year, he did bat just .264 last year. He’s still striking out in a quarter of his at-bats, and yet again has a below average line drive rate (17.0 percent). At that level, it’s pretty tough to posit a continuation of his current .344 BABIP. The power is legit though.
I’d keep Youkilis. He is the best player of the three, and even though I’m a big fan of Uggla’s, there’s just no way he, or Davis for that matter, will be able to match the elite level OPS of Youkilis.
I just traded Neil Walker for Jordan Zimmerman in a keeper league. Is it a good move since I needed pitching help?
– @redskinsp
Walker he been one of the better hitting second baseman in the game so far this year (.276-6-30-28-2). Unfortunately he’s striking out a bit more this season, nearly a quarter of his at-bats, and his ground ball rate is up eight percent this year (44 percent). Neither of those numbers are scary by any means, but both would seem to cap his ability to be an elite option in average or the home run department. Basically, he’s been slightly more effective at going deep this year, thanks to a 40 percent increase in his HR/F ratio, while pretty much maintaining many of the levels he posted last season. If he is able to hold on to what he has shown over his last 155 big league we’re likely looking at a top-10 player at second base.
Zimmerman is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and the Nationals are being careful limiting their prized righties innings when possible. After a slow start to the year in the K department, Zimmerman has been bringing the heat in his last three starts racking up 22 Ks in 18.2 innings. He’s also tossed 4-straight quality starts the last four times he has taken the hill. Jordan has also limited the walks to two or fewer in each of his last eight starts, a great sign since pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery often struggle to locate their pitches. A youngster like Walker, Zimmerman has a 8.10 K/9 an a 3.12 K/BB ratio through 176.2 career innings, and numbers like that lead to a lot of success.
Both players are solid building blocks in a keeper league. While Walker will likely be very good, Zimmerman has a shot at being a top-25 starting pitcher option moving forward. Given your stated need of pitching help, I’d feel completely comfortable in making this deal.
The rest of the way… Erik Bedard or Madison Bumgarner?
– @Lintyfresh85
I’ve said this probably 46 times the past three months – when healthy, Bedard is really, really good. However, as we all know, he spends as much time sipping a pina colada as he does climbing onto the bump. Bedard tossed 81 innings in 2008, 83 in 2009 and zero in 2010. He’s up to 45.2 this season, so you have to ask yourself, how much faith do you have in him taking the ball every five games?
Bumgarner is 1-6 so he’s pitched pretty poorly this season. Wait a second, that isn’t true at all actually. Though he has only one victory, each of the last five times he has taken the hill he has produced a “quality start” leading to a 1.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.50 K/BB ratio.
Let’s compare the two directly. Here are their 2011 numbers.
E. Bedard: 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 1.10 GB/FB
Bumgarner: 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.53 K/9, 2.06 K/BB, 1.68 GB/FB
Both are left-handed.
Both are pitching well of late.
Both pitch in great pitcher’s parks.
Do you want the up and comer in Bumgarner or the slightly more skilled, but infinitely more volatile Bedard?
As much as I love the skills of Bedard I just cannot trust him to make 30 starts, so I’d go with the Giants’ lefty.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
There was an article posted today at Fanball called 2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers. First off, I have a huge problem with the term “sleeper.” It’s so ingrained in our minds that when it is left out of a draft guide or preseason preview we get tons of emails asking how we could be so stupid as to not including such an article in our coverage.
Honestly though, what good is a “sleeper” article? In 1994 there was a point to it, but that time has long passed. In the “old days” before the internet blew up, data was hard to come by. Only those that really attempted to ferret it out were able to find it. However, information is everyone at this point. You can get it online for free – just like you do here at BaseballGuys – and you can find information everyone on the internet if you want to pay a few bucks. There are also shows on television dealing only with fantasy baseball, and I host a daily radio on Sirius/XM Radio where we talk about fantasy sports three hours a day (5-8 PM, EDT). The point is, with the data available in virtually every medium you could think of, there really are no true “sleepers” anymore. By draft day every player has been analyzed and worked over, so much so in many instances that a guy who was a sleeper in early January ends up being drafted in the 10th round in your mixed league draft in late March.
I think the best we can do is to put forward a list of players who are likely to be undervalued on draft day, though again, that value is completely arbitrary and will be determined totally based upon how those in your league value the players (if you buy Daric Barton in New York he might cost $7, but try purchasing him for less than $10 if you live in California).
Here are the names that were on the “sleeper” list I refered to at the top of the piece. In what follows I give my own thoughts on each (each writer took one player and gave his reasons why that guy should be a draft day target in the original piece).
Pedro Alvarez: He hit a combined 29 homers last season between Triple-A and the majors, but he also struck out a shameful 187 times. With such a poor approach at the dish, Alvarez is much more Adam Dunn than he is Ryan Zimmerman. Still, he has a shot to be a top-10 third basemen.
Mike Aviles: In his two healthy seasons he has hit better than .300. Do you know how many .300 seasons that Chase Utley has? Try two. Aviles seems capable of going 10/10 as well, and though his run producing is suspect, only nine players hit .300 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 2010.
Homer Bailey: He still needs to work on his secondary stuff, but Bailey pitched really well over his last 10 starts with a 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 59 Ks in 58.1 innings. He seems locked into a starting role with the Reds, and despite seeming like he has been around forever, Homer is just 24 years old.
Jay Bruce: He is a huge breakout candidate after his dynamic finish (.338-15-29 over his last 43 games) in 2010. However, that finish will have Bruce on everyone’s list of breakout candidates in 2011. There is no disputing that the youngster could be a huge run producer, and he has seen his walk rate improve each year, but the strikeouts are a concern.
Lorenzo Cain: He hit for average and flashed speed in 43 games after hitting .317 with 26 thefts in 84 games in the minors. Cain has hit .291 in the minors in his career, but it’s hard to envision him continuing to hit so well in a full season of work. The Royals believe in him as he was part of the package of players they received for Zack Greinke.
Starlin Castro: He was awful on the base paths with a 56 percent stolen base rate, and he closed out the year on a down note hitting .232 over his last 23 games. Someone will likely pay top dollar for a guy who might be merely solid in 2011 though he did hit .300 last year while not being able to legally pull back on a bottle of Jack.
Chris Coghlan: While his production was down in year two you can take solace in the fact he closed strong hitting .312 over his last 42 games. As a result, he is slated to start the year as the Marlins leadoff hitter. The knee he injured in a post game celebration should be fine for the start of games, but I worry about his ability to handle center field, the position he is currently slated to play.
Aaron Hill: This is the player in the review I referenced. Here is what I wrote.
“Let me construct this rather obvious case in three steps. (1) Even though he ‘struggled’ in 2010, Hill was tied for fourth amongst second basemen in homers with 26. He has 62 homers in the last two seasons, second most at the position (Dan Uggla has 64). (2) Hill has 176 RBI over the past two years, third most at second base. Clearly he is an elite power option. (3) From 2006-09, Hill hit at least .286 three times and he possesses a career .270 average. However, he hit just .205 in 2010. What in the hell happened? Hill owns a career line drive rate of 18.5 percent, slightly below the big league average (20 percent), but somehow that number dropped to a mere 10.6 percent last year. That’s roughly the equivalent to Adam Dunn hitting about 21 homers. Hill had the absolute worst LD-rate and BABIP (.196) in baseball, and there is about as much chance of that happening again in 2011 as there is of me getting a mid-season call up to the Giants. If he maintains his power from the last two years, he’ll go deep 31 times with 88 RBI, while matching his career .270 average would given him one hell of a season. Hello, Dan Uggla.”
Jonathan Niese: He made 30 starts for the Mets posting a 4.20 ERA. However, that’s somewhat deceiving; Niese had a 3.76 ERA after 28 starts before he was tanked in his last two outings (*12 ER in 8.1 innings). His numbers were sort of Doug Davis-ish with a 1.46 WHIP, 148 Ks and 62 walks in 173.2 innings. If he can locate his pitches, and keep the walks down, his ERA could easily be in the 3′s in 2011.
Jordan Zimmerman: A potential ace who is coming back from Tommy John surgery, Zimmerman is the classic “sleeper” who everyone will talk up to the point that he won’t be drafted like one. He should be 100 percent this season, and with a 8.76 K/9 and a 3.05 K/BB over 122.1 big league innings his future is definitely looking plenty bright.
By Ray Flowers
Mariano Rivera wants two years from the Yankees – and they will be more than happy to give him that on his next contract offer. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, wants at least four with some reports hinting that he would actually prefer five or six years. Seems like the Yankees aren’t buying as they are set to officially offer him a 3-year, $45 million deal. Given that Jeter’s defense at short is sliding, that he is 36 years old, and that he is coming off the worst full season of his career (.270-10-67-111-18), it’s more than a fair offer. At the same time Jeter is Mr. Yankee, and if he were to bolt the team the revolt from the fans would be a P.R. nightmare. Look for the two sides to eventually settle on a four year deal – Jeter isn’t going anywhere – even if he isn’t the player he was just a couple of seasons ago.
Magglio Ordonez is apparently fully recovered from ankle surgery and he is ready to start looking for a place to ply his wares in 2011. His agent is Scott Boras, so you can count out small market clubs since Boras has probably put together a presentation saying that Ordonez is a better right-handed hitter than Albert Pujols. I will say this for Ordonez, he rebounded in 2010 after a terrible 2009 effort that saw him hit only nine homers with 50 RBI in 131 games. Limited because of injury to 84 games in 2010, he socked 12 homers, had 59 RBI, scored 56 times and hit .303 for the Tigers. Also, let me give Mags some props. In 10 of the last 12 years he has hit .300, and in each of his last eight seasons of more than 500 at-bats he has knocked in at least 99 runs. He is no Albert Pujols, but he is still a darn effective big league hitter.
Less than a week away from Thanksgiving, an I’ve already started to salivate over the thought of mashed potatoes and yams with marshmallows. Time to do a few extra sit-ups to make sure I can gorge next week.
Jonathan Papelbon is arbitration eligible, and it appears that after making $9.35 million last year that he will be asked for something like $11.5 million for the coming campaign. Would the Red Sox simply non-tender Papelbon and allow the 9th inning to be taken over by Bard? After all, Bard made a mere $416,000 last year and still isn’t eligible for arbitration. It seems unlikely, honestly I can’t envision it happening, but it’s doesn’t appear to be crazy when you compare the 2010 performance of the two righty relievers to one another.
Papelbon:1.27 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 0.87 GB/FB, 3.51 FIP
D. Bard: 1.00 WHIP, 9.16 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.72 HR/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 3.37 FIP
Pretty darn close isn’t it? It’s also a concern that Papelbon posted the worst BB/9 mark of his last five seasons (3.76), and also his worst K/BB (almost a batter and a half below his career mark of 4.02). Papelbon also allowed a five year worst in HR/9, WHIP and ERA (it was 3.90, more than a run an a half above his career 2.22 mark). That’s a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction to be giving a guy a raise to over $11 million.
Dan Uggla appears to be happy with the Braves, an as expected, he also seems interested in staying with the club for a while. Uggla said that he wants what is “fair” in a contract offer, but that he isn’t going to try and become the highest paid player of all-time or anything like that. “A lot of people know that this is the closest big league team to my home [in Tennessee], and it creates an incredible opportunity for my family and friends to be able to come down and watch on a more consistent basis,” Uggla said. For my thoughts on Uggla and the great move the Braves made to get him make sure you give Who is the AL Cy Young a read.
By Ray Flowers
I have to admit that I’m pretty confused by this deal. Maybe I’m underating defensive acumen, but to me the NL East deal between the Marlins and Braves on Tuesday appears to be a slame dunk win for the perenial contending Braves.
The Deal:
Braves receive: 2B Dan Uggla
Marlins receive: INF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn.
First off, it’s very, very odd that the two divisional opponents would pull off a deal of this magnitude with one another..
Second, it should be pointed out that Uggla has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season. Clearly, the Braves believe they will be able to sign him long-term (reportedly the Marlins offered 4-years and $48 million, to which Uggla asked for 5-years, and $71 million). The Braves are certainly putitng themselves in a slightly precarious position do to the uncertainty surrounding Uggla’s future, but they clearly anticipate their winning atmopshere, not to mention new manager Fredi Gonzalez, who worked with Uggla in Florida, to help them to sway Uggla into staying for a while in Atlanta.
Now to the players.
Omar Infante was an All-Star in 2010 as he had the best season of his career as he hit .321. However, he has little power, he hit only eight homers and 15 doubles in 471 at-bats, and he rarely walked leading to a solid but far from great .359 OBP considering how high is average was. He also has stolen all of nine bases the past three years, and his career slash line is league average at .274/.319/.395. He helps out all over the field (65 games at 2B, 29 at 3B, 19 at SS, 21 at OF), but he has little shot to repeat his effort from last season which would, idealy, leave him as a super sub on a good team, not an everyday starter as the Marlins are planning on him being.
Dunn has impressive stuff that includes a fastball that resides at 95 mph and a power 86 mph slider. He’s used those pitches to great effect with 32 Ks in 23 big league innings (he also posted 64 Ks in 47.1 innings at Triple-A in ’10). However, Dunn has also walked 22 batters in those 23 big league innings, and his BB/9 number at Triple-A was 4.75 per nine innings last year — and that was a 3-year best. Exactly. Tons of stuff but little consistency so far.
As for Uggla, all he has done is have the best 5-year run to start his career of any second basemen who has ever played the game. Moreover, it can be argued rather easily that he is working on the greatest 5-year power run in the annals of baseball for a second basemen. Uggla has produced 5-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored, and that is the longest such streak – ever (no other second basemen has done it more than twice in a row). Actually, Uggla is one of only four players at any position who is working on a 5-year streak of 27-88-84, and the others are Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixieria. That’s right, Uggla is a consistnetly effective offensive weapon. I don’t really care that he is a K machine – at least 149 in each of the past four years – or if he owns a mere .263 career batting average, or if he really can’t play second base. The man can mash, and that is what the Braves will hang their hats on – a middle of the order threat who, at 31 years of age, seems a near lock for 25 homers, 90 RBI and 85 runs scored. Oh yeah, he has also missed a grand total of 34 games in five seasons.
This deal is a slam dunk win for the Braves if they can sign Uggla to a contract extension.
One other thing. Check your leagues games played requirements. I mention this because Martin Prado looks likely to move to the outfield. That means Prado could concievably qualify at second third and outfield in 2011. However, if he will only qualify at outfield if that is the only position he will actually play in 2011, make sure you realize that there isn’t much value to a .300-12-70 line from an outfielder if he only steals five bases.
For another view of the deal make sure to read Jason Collette’s Fishy Deals.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Drew Stubbs is a fantasy ace.
(2) Jose Valverde right elbow tenderness.
(3) Bobby Jenks has ulner neruitis.
(4) In my By the Numbers piece today, I gave a bunch of interesting numbers. Here is a review of a few including history possibly being set by Mat Latos, Dan Uggla and Carlos Pena.
(5) Carlos Gonzalez on fire – but poor on the road this season.
By Ray Flowers
Johnny Cueto was given a seven game suspension for his Bruce Lee like efforts to impale the Cardinals with his Feet of Fury (Bruce Lee was in a movie entitled Fist of Fury). Oh, and in case you have no idea what I’m talking about, Cueto tried to kick about half of the Cardinals team when the Cards and Reds fought recently. Cueto took his suspension like a man, after acting like a child, and he’ll serve the suspension without an appeal.
Chipper Jones will have knee surgery and if his rehab goes well he plans on trying to play next year. I’ll try to rehab this weekend with copious amounts of alcohol so that I can return to work on Sunday night for the radio show I co-host with Kyle Elfrink from 8-12 PM EST called the Fanball Fantasy Recap. By the way, the show is on XM 147 and Sirius 211, and you can read all about it in I’m a Star.
Joe Mauer leads baseball with a .435 batting average the past 30 days (Chris Johnson leads the NL at .432). As pointed out to me today by Kyle Elfrink, Mauer hasn’t a single homer this season at home in 162 at-bats. Mauer’s also gone deep just seven times on the year. Where are those people that called me an utter buffoon when I said before the season started that there was not a scintilla of a chance that Mauer would go deep 30 times this season after hitting 28 big flies last year? Crickets? If we remove those 28 bombs, here is what his homer totals look like since his rookie season: 9, 13, 7, 9 and 7 this year.
Felix Pie is hitting .340 the past two weeks. At the same time he has a .333 OBP as he hasn’t walked a single time in that time. I don’t know if that’s real progress or not (things like sacrifice bunts and sac hits count as plate appearances and will therefore lower a players OBP even if the players batting average is not moved by the outs generated).
Dan Uggla may have “only” 26 hits in his last 25 games (he’s hitting .283 in that time), but he has made those hits count as he has gone deep 10 times, has knocked in 20 runs and has scored 24 times. It’s been said before but it bears repeating: Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball with 4-straight years of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored. All he need is one more homer, 16 more RBI and four more runs scored to run that streak to 5-straight seasons.
Are you following me on Twitter yet at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account? If your not, and yes I’m biased, your missing out on some of the best baseball knowledge you could ever hope to find. Here are some of my favorites from today.
Casey McGehee has 73 RBI, one more than Evan Longoria.
Casey McGehee has 18 homers, one more than David Wright.
David Ortiz has seven 25 HR seasons for the Red Sox. 2nd most – tied with J. Rice – behind T. Williams (14).
Orioles considering going to a 6-man rotation to get a look at guys like Tillman and Britton.
Here comes the Panda. Pablo Sandoval in August: .349 with an .899 OPS for the SFGiants.
Sign up if you are on Twitter, you wont be disappointed. If you are you can take it up with management (which just so happens to be me).
By Ray Flowers
In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.
Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.
If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.
ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.
ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.
ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.
ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.
ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.
ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.
ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.
ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.
Here is my team (number is round selected).
C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18
P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21
Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28
Team Review:
* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.
* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.
* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).
* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.
* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.
* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.
* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.
* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.
* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.
* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.
* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.
* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.
I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
