(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.
(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.
(3) Carlos Santana really struggling
(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Brandon Belt sent to Triple-A.
(2) Ian Stewart sent to Triple-A.
(3) Jed Lowrie to play everyday – for now. For more see: Conspiracies and Comebacks.
(4) Ryan Franklin on longer the Cards’ closer.
(5) Jason Bay (rib cage) likely to be activated on Thursday.
(6) Austin Jackson struggling mightily.
(7) David Aardsma likely to be back by end of next week.
By Ray Flowers
Just like that, plans change. For those of you looking to roster a certain closer from the Pacific Northwest in 2011 you might want to reconsider that plan of attack and “hop” to another reliever in the Mariners’ bullpen.
The Mariners were thought to be exploring potential trade partners for David Aardsma. Not that they didn’t like his game – he has saved 69 of them the past two years – it’s just that he has been pretty good the past two years which means that his salary is about to get a bit pricey (he is eligible for arbitration and could double his $2.75 million salary of last season). Well, things just got downright sticky for the Mariners as it was announced that David would need surgery for a labrum tear in his left hip. Obviously this means they will not be able to move him for that power bat that they seek. It also means there has to be some question about what Aardsma will be able to offer early in the year. Reports are that he will miss about four weeks before he will be allowed to throw again, but that seems a bit quick to me. Even if he is back throwing that soon there is no guarantee that he will be able to pitch effective in spring. If you are considering holding on to Aardsma in a keeper league, I certainly wouldn’t (in fact, I’d have said the same thing even before the injury).
Who would I be looking at in the Mariners’ pen now that Aardsma could be slow to start the year? I’d be looking at Brandon League. Even if Aardsma was healthy I’d let you draft him in the 10th round and just take League in the 20th and be happy about it. Why would I feel comfortable with something that seems downright outlandish? Again my friends, I roster skills over role nearly every time. So that must mean I’m saying that I like the skills of League better than those of Aardsma? You got that right. Here are their 2009-2010 numbers.
Aardsma: 9.60 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 2.19 K/BB, 2.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
League: 7.33 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 2.75 K/BB, 3.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Obviously Aardsma has the advantage in the strikeout department, but that one run advantage in ERA sure looks pretty darn spotty. Not only does League walk a batter and half less per nine, a figure that sooner or later will even out the other numbers (meaning Aardsma is in trouble), I left out two salient facts that point even more strongly toward League being the better option.
League is a dynamite, and I mean other worldly type of ground ball inducing pitcher. League owns a career 3.09 GB/FB rate, and a decent rule of thumb is that the average big league hurler is usually in the 1.00 to 1.10 range. Obviously that means that League is superior to the average hurler, by a multiple mind you. Moreover, amongst pitchers who tossed 70-innings last season League’s 3.00 GB/FB was the best mark in the American League. If you keep the ball on the ground you rarely give up extra base hits, and that is certainly key late in games, especially for a guy like League who often comes into a game with guys on base.
Aardsma couldn’t be a more different type of pitcher. Mind you, Aardsma has been successful with his style the past two years, but sooner or later most of things tend to normalize. I already mentioned the huge concern about his walk total, but there is another part of his game that belies his current success – Aardsma is diametrically opposed to League as he is a fly ball machine. Because of all the fly balls he gives up Aardsma owns a career GB/FB rate of 0.79 which just so happens to be the same number he posted last season. Think about that. Aardsma’s GB/FB rate in 2010 was about 25 percent of the mark of League, so how in the hell did he have a better ERA? Sheer luck if you ask me. Somehow Aardsma has allowed a mere nine homers the past two years despite all those fly balls. That’s far too few, even if he does possess some innate yet unmeasurable ability to keep fly balls in the yard. Maybe it’s just because Safeco isn’t a great park to go deep in. The bottom line is that Aardsma has been playing with fire for two years, and sooner or later fire burns.
To sum it up you need to knock Aardsma well down your relief pitcher list until you see him out there slinging it at 95 mph. Even if that does occur in spring training I’m telling you – draft League. In my mind he has the more stable skill set, and when you combine that with better health, all he needs is to be given the opportunity to truly shine in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Top-10 Closers for 2011 and try to explain how it is possible that two of our experts left Andrew Bailey out of their top-10.
ANDREW BAILEY
As Ted asked in his the initial report, how is it that Mike Sheets and Seth Trachtman left Bailey completely out of their top-10? I listed him at #5, so the question is, was I right or wrong? Come on, do you really think I’m ever wrong? Here are the data points that prove beyond a doubt that Bailey should be listed in front of guys like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street and Chris Perez and firmly in the top-10 for 2011.
(1) Amongst pitchers who tossed at least 40-innings in 2010, Bailey was 5th in ERA (1.47). Moreover, and make sure you are firmly planted in your seat when you read this next sentence, Bailey has the best ERA in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125-innings. Bailey’s mark is 1.70, slightly ahead of the 1.78 ERA of Al Spalding (and yes, that is the same Spalding whose name adorns sporting apparel these days).
(2) Bailey was 12th in WHIP (0.96) in 2010. Moreover, the past two seasons, amongst hurlers with at least 125-innings pitched, Bailey is #1 in the game with a base runner per nine mark of 8.16 – slightly ahead of the 8.26 mark Mariano Rivera.
(3) Bailey had a mere 7.72 K/9 mark in 2010, but amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 125-innings the past two years Bailey’s K/9 mark of 9.05 is 28th in baseball. Moreover, amongst pitchers with at least 50-saves, that K/9 mark is is 8th.
(4) Bailey has 51 saves the past two years, the 20th best mark in baseball. That number would be higher if not for two factors. First, he wasn’t the closer for the A’s at the start of the 2009 season, and second, injury limited him to just 49 innings in 2010. Still, Bailey has 25-saves in back-to-back seasons, and only 16 men have done that.
Given all that data, I honestly can’t understand how someone who choose to leave Bailey out of their top-10, unless they are going to argue that he is an injury concern. Even then, I’m not buying that argument – Bailey must be a top-10 selection at closer in 2011.
JONATHAN BROXTON
Broxton is a dominating force on the hill. In 2009 he racked up 36 saves, posted a 2.61 ERA and an otherworldly 13.50 K/9 mark. However, he had a couple of rough patches in 2010 that resulted in him losing his closing role to Hong-Chih Kuo in the second half of the season. At the same time, the 295 lbs, 95+ mph throwing Broxton still posted some dominating marks in 2010 including:
10.54 K/9 – Better than Jonathan Papelbon (10.21), Joakim Soria (9.73), Jose Valverde (9.00) and David Aardsma (8.88) to name just a few.
2.61 K/BB – Better than guys like Brian Fuentes (2.35), Chris Perez (2.18) and Brad Lidge (2.17) to name a few.
1.46 GB/FB – Better than Joakim Soria (1.37), Brian Wilson (1.28), Francisco Cordero (1.18) and Heath Bell (1.16) to name but a few.
So why the struggles in 2010?
(1) He walked way too many guys at 4.04 per nine. In each of the previous three seasons that mark was below 3.55.
(2) He was unlucky, at least that’s what I’m calling it. Broxton owns a .328 career BABIP, a mark that he had been at or under in each of the last four seasons. So how do you explain his ’10 mark of .369? Again, I go back to bad luck being the main culprit.
I could see how some of the guys on staff would pass on ranking Broxton in their top-10, I get it. I just hope that everyone holds that view heading into next season so that I can grab Broxton in the middle rounds because I have full confidence in him posting strong totals yet again in 2011.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Edwin Encarnacion was demoted then designated for assignment by Blue Jays.
(2) Ryan Franklin will likely retire after the 2011 season.
(3) David DeJesus is on fire in June, and he’s also on the trade market.
(4) Mariano Rivera has retired 21-straight batters. He has lost nothing with age.
(5) The Yankees will skip the next turn in rotation for Phil Hughes.
(6) Rookie update – Carlos Santana hitting .393 in nine games. Mike Stanton hitting .233. Stephen Strasburg sets record with 32 Ks in first three starts.
(7) David Aardsma might be on the trade block, and if he is, many teams will be interested.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.
(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.
(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.
(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?
(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.
(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.
Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.
Average Bases Allowed – Starters.
Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
