Player Profiles: 2011 Review

Most people like to brag about their successes, but few stand accountable when they screw things up. I’m not one of those people. More times than not I’d like to think I’m right, but there are also times where I clearly miss the mark.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

Today, I will look at the hitters I reviewed. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the pitchers.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run.

Jose Bautista – .302-43-103-105-9
“Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot… There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330… why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?”

Bautista had a phenomenal season, better than I thought he would as he posted a second straight 40-100-100 season while leading baseball with a 1.056 OPS. So I was wrong. Period. Still he did score less runs, knock in fewer runs and have fewer RBI than he did in 2010. At the same time, I was totally right about his production slowing. Bautista hit only 12 homers with a .257 batting average over his final 65 games.
DOUBLE

Justin Smoak: .234-15-55-38-0
“Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season.”

Injuries killed Smoak this season, and he seemed to have forgotten how to hit in the second half as he had three homers and 12 RBI, with a .661 OPS, over his final 39 games.
SINGLE

Brett Wallace: .259-5-29-37-1
“A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.” He was hitting 367 over 23 games at the time the piece was written.

I knew he would regress, but even I ‘m surprised by how much he did. Shocked actually. He barely ended up having any value even as a corner infield option in NL-only leagues.
DOUBLE

Willie Bloomquist: .266-4-26-44-20
“…he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG… Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist.” He was leading baseball in steals at the time the article was written

Come on. Did anyone other than Kay Adams really think I was gonna be wrong here?
HOME RUN

Ryan Raburn: .256-14-49-53-1
“Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.”

His average dipped a bit, it was in the .280′s in 2009-10, but he was basically the exact same guy he had been the previous two seasons. Of course, it was a season of two halves for Raburn as he had a .213 average an a .609 OPS in the first half and a .341 average and .967 OPS after the All-Star break.
DOUBLE

David DeJesus: .240-10-46-60-4
“Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with five outfielders? Possibly, but only barely. Is DeJesus a starter in AL-only leagues with three outfielders? You bet your rear he is. It’s all about putting players in position to succeed…”

I was right about DeJesus having value in AL-only leagues, but I was shocked at how poorly he performed. Still, do you know how many AL outfielders hit 10 homers with 45 RBI and 60 runs scored? The answer is only 21.
DOUBLE

Nick Swisher: .260-23-85-81-2
“I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.”

After hitting .288 in 2011 Swisher hit .260 this season, six points clear of his career .254 mark. He fell just short of 24 homers, but one, though he did hit 80 RBI and runs scored. You can’t get more dead on with a prediction that I did here.
HOME RUN

Adrian Gonzalez: .338-27-117-108-1
“…Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all… I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix…”

Can you be right while also being totally wrong at the same time? Gonzalez hit only 27 homers, a 5-year low, but that was all I was right about. Gonzalez killed it all year in a fantastic season for the BoSox. I was wrong. Still, I would caution expecting a repeat in 2012 in the batting average category. He hit .045 points above his career mark despite a normal 21.2 percent line drive rate (career 21.0) as his BABIP skyrocketed by .058 points.
SINGLE

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: David DeJesus

Photo by Ro Datz

We all want to have Sofia Vergara on our arm but it’s not like anyone would feel bad if they were accompanied by Amy Adams. Let me draw a similar fantasy baseball comparison. Of course we would prefer to have Alex Rios on our fantasy squad over David DeJesus, but it’s not like DeJesus is useless, despite how he is being viewed according to current ADP charts (his ADP is barely under 400 and behind guys like Seth Smith and Fred Lewis for goodness sakes). Let’s take a look at the Athletics outfielder and see  how he should be valued in 2011.

When he injured his thumb last year, DeJesus was hitting a career best .318. Is he a .300 hitter? Not really. Last season his BABIP mark was a career best .355, more than .030 points above his career mark, despite the fact that his GB/FB ratio (1.45) and line drive rate (20.9 percent) were both only a tenth off his career marks (1.44 and 21.0). However, DeJesus did bat .307 in 2008 and owns a career average of .289 that includes six of the last seven years with at least a .281 mark. He isn’t going to challenge for the AL batting crown, but the downside is pretty much non-existent.

If you’ve ever played fantasy baseball or know anything about the game, you know know that DeJesus offers nothing in the homer category. His career best is 13 homers, in his last healthy season of 2009, and the only other time he was in double-digits was 2008 when he went deep 12 times. Kansas City isn’t a great park for homers, but it’s not like the Coliseum in Oakland is much better, so look for his ceiling to be double-digits – and barely.

DeJesus also isn’t a big run producer having never posted more than 73 RBI in a season. Still, in his last two complete seasons – 2008 and 2009 – he managed to knock in 73 and 71 runs. The lack of RBI is more a function of his spot in the batting order, often leadoff, than it is any deficiency he has as a hitter (with RISP in his career he has hit .312 with a .394 OBP and a .821 OPS, better numbers than his overall career marks of .289, .360 and .787). Conversely, DeJesus has scored a fair amount of runs, and from 2006-09 he averaged 82 runs a season.

A negative trend with DeJesus is that he has pretty much been a disaster on the base paths the past few years. DeJesus stole 21 bases in 2007-08, but the last two years he has only seven thefts in 235 games. That’s pretty darn awful. He’s also been caught stealing a rather remarkable 12 times the last two campaigns, and a ratio that bad might have his new employers in Oakland giving him the red light on occasion.

2011 OUTLOOK

So you might be thinking to yourself – why did Ray just waste my time making me read this review of a guy with little upside in any category? It’s about value people.

Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with three outfielders? Ah, hell no.
Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with five outfielders? Possibly, but only barely.
Is DeJesus a starter in AL-only leagues with three outfielders? You bet your rear he is.

It’s all about putting players in position to succeed, just like what major league managers try to do on the field every day.

Let’s assume the following.

(1) DeJesus will be healthy – i.e. his thumb is fully healed.
(2) He will spend most of the year hitting first, second or third in the Athletics’ lineup.

If we assume that, it’s worth taking a look at what an “average” DeJesus season of 150 games would produce, given his career levels of production:

.289 with 10 homers, 67 RBI, 86 runs and eight steals.

Those are rather meager numbers, and the reason that DeJesus isn’t anything other than a bench option in mixed leagues. But in AL-only leagues, a line such as that has a lot of value. Why do I say that? Quick, tell me how many AL outfielders produced a 5×5 line of .289-10-67-86-8 last year? The answer is TWO. Not 22 but two – Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton. Remember how I said that DeJesus had value if he was put in the proper context?

Speaking of context, where is Amy Adams, I need a date to accompany me to the ice cream shop. I still want Sophia to hit up the dance club with me on Saturday night.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 2, 2011

I’m in a 12 man keeper league, head-to-head points. My options are Ubaldo Jimenez in the 8th or Mat Latos in the 16th. I know Jimenez is a pretty good deal in the eighth, but does the value of Latos eight rounds later make him the guy to protect even though he’s not as proven as Jimenez?
– Travis, Austin, Texas

The old keeper conundrum facing so many people at this time of year. Do you go with the more valuable fantasy performer or the better value? First off, let’s attack the idea of which pitcher is more valuable.

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, .209 BAA in 221.2 IP
M. Latos: 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 9.21 K/9, 3.78 K/BB, 1.08 WHIP, .217 BAAA in 184.2 IP

If we look solely at last seasons numbers, I’d be hard pressed to say that Jimenez was clearly the better pitcher. In fact, if we remove the W-L record from the discussion, it certainly appears that Latos pitched slightly better than Jimenez. Therefore, if that was all the data we had at our disposal it would seem to be a no brainer to keep Latos since his draft day cost would be eight rounds cheaper.

What about the place each hurler pitches? While Coors Field is no longer the launching pad it once was since the introduction of the humidor, it’s still a park that heavily favors offense. According to Bill James’ Park Indices, Coors was the best park in the NL in 2010 to score a run or hit a home run. Flip the situation over to Petco Park in San Diego where Latos pitches, and it’s almost like we are talking another language. Petco was the second worst park in the NL in terms of runs and it was 12th in homers in the NL. Given that, the advantage clearly goes to Latos – despite the fact that Jimenez and his “heavy” fastball has always performed well at home (in 2010 he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 96 Ks in 101.2 innings in Coors).

What about their health, a massive concern with hurlers (consider the case of Adam Wainwright)? We all know that any pitch can send a hurler to the doctor’s office, but if we are to simply consider the data with these two hurlers we’d have to conclude that Jimenez is the “safer” hurler. Ubaldo has thrown at least 198.2 innings each of the past three years, something only four other NL hurlers have been able to do (Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, Ryan Dempster and Tim Lincecum). As for Latos, as I related in The Verducci Effect, he has put forth two major innings pitched increases the past two years which is a  legitimate concern. He also tanked miserably at the end of last season (1-5, 5.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over his last seven starts), perhaps a sign he was worn out. Early reports this year are very positive however, and for what it’s worth, Latos is a pretty big kid (6’6, 225 lbs.) so maybe he’ll be just fine.

If I was sitting down at a draft table looking to roster hurlers in a re-draft league, I’d have Jimenez ranked ahead of Latos. At the same time, it would be as tough a decision as it would be deciding between whether I wanted Brooklyn Decker or Irina Shayk to be in my dreams tonight. Given the massive eight round advantage you pick up in your keeper format Travis with holding on to Latos, I think it’s a no brainer that you roster the hurler from the Padres.

What are your thoughts on Yunel Escobar at shortstop for the Blue Jays. Is he going to return to being productive with Toronto?
– Joseph, Sierra Vista, Arizona

Escobar was awful last season, kind of like that rancid peach you think you can still eat if you work your way around the bad parts, only to find out you were dead wrong. In 497 at-bats Yunel hit .256 with four homers, 35 RBI and a .655 OPS. It wouldn’t take much for him to improve on that effort, but I think there is much more to be mined here than slight improvement. Let me drop some knowledge on you as people seem to have forgotten just how good Yunel already has been.

In 2008, Escobar hit .288 with 10 homers, 60 RBI, 71 runs and two steals. In standard 5×5 scoring that left him as the 143rd best overall hitter and the 12th most productive shortstop.

In 2009 Escobar hit .299 with 14 homers, 76 RBI, 89 runs scored and five steals. That 5×5 fantasy effort left him as the 75th best fantasy hitter in the game, and the 7th best shortstop.

It’s not like Escobar has to do anything other than return to “normal” to return a massive amount of value given that last years down effort has relegated him to a current ADP mark of about 375.

Is there reason, other than his previously strong performances, to think he will return to relevance this season? Of course.

(1) Escobar is only 29 years old, hardly an age when people lose “it.”

(2) Toronto’s park is a solid one for offense as it was above average in 2011 in batting average, runs and hits, while it was the third best park to go deep in according to Park Indices in the AL.

(3) Escobar really wasn’t that bad last year – honest. Take a look.

2010: 9.9 BB-rate, 11.5 K-rate, 0.98 BB/K
Career: 9.4 BB-rate, 12.1 K-rate, 0.88 BB/K
Huh is right. He was actually better than normal in these three categories.

2010: 1.89 GB/FB, 18.0 LD-rate
Career: 2.02 GB/FB, 18.8 LD-rate
Huh again. His ground ball, fly ball and line drive rates were almost a dead on match for his career levels. So why was he so bad last year?

2010: 3.3 HR/F, .282 BABIP, .251 average vs. righties
Career: 7.6 HR/F, .314 BABIP, .293 average vs. righties
Escobar isn’t ever going to be a power hitter, he hits too many balls on the ground, but he should be able to  reach double-digit homers when his HR/F normalizes. You also have to think that he was a bit unlucky last year with a .032 point dip in his BABIP given that his G/F/L rates were the same as “normal.” It’s also odd to see his batting average drop by more than .040 points against righties. You have to figure that number will rebound.

Escobar will come cheap on draft day, and the numbers seem to indicate that a return to at least his 2008 level is immanently possible.

I’m in an auction draft for the first time, and I’m getting pretty nervous. Any advice for a newbie to the format?
– Eric, Los Angeles

Eric, welcome to the world of auctions. Once you get the fever for doing them it’s often hard to go back to traditional snake drafts because of the slower pace and the inability to have the same level of control over the players you can choose for your roster. Here are some general tips.

1 – Make sure you have a plan, understand the rules, and have a working knowledge of the player pool. You will not have time to check a magazine to find out if David DeJesus can help you in the steals department, you will have to know that information.

2- In terms of what strategy to employ, I wrote a simple introduction to the auction format in How to Do an Auction Draft. You’ll find a basic review of the simplest ways to attack an auction there.

3- Do some mock auctions if you can. I get made fun of all the time for doing mock drafts by my friends, but they are an invaluable tool if you ask me.

4- I’d also suggest listening in on how the “experts” do it. This Saturday and Sunday, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, the LABR auction drafts for the AL and NL will be carried live (for programming information see SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio). It can’t hurt to hear how the experts work their way through an auction.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s  minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Around the Horn: Jan.21, 2011

(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.

(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?

(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.

(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.

(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.

You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.

By Ray Flowers

A’s Astounding Bullpen

I know most people don’t pay close attention to baseball on the west coast, at least until the Giants won the World Series last season, but there is actually another club in the Bay Area that has, rather quietly, been working through a major transformation this offseason.

The Oakland A’s have bolstered their team in a myriad of ways. On offense they added David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui (you can read about the addition of DeJesus in Four in One, Josh Willingham in Hot Stove: Signings Galore, and Matsui in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). That’s a pretty nice upgrade on offense for the club, but it’s what they have done to bolster their bullpen that is at the center of my work today.

From the 7th inning on last year, the A’s had the 2nd best ERA in the AL just 0.13 behind the Rays’ 3.06 mark), and they were also very tough to hit allowing just 405 hits, two behind the AL leaders the Rays and Yankees (don’t neglect to realize that the A’s also led the AL in overall ERA at 3.65 and in shutouts with 17). Let’s go through the parts of what could be the best pen in the AL, and perhaps all of baseball, in 2011.

It all starts with the closer, Andrew Bailey. He had surgery on his elbow in September but should be 100 percent by the times the games count. The start Bailey has had to his career is historic. You can read about the history he has made in Top-20 RPs for 2011.

The team retained sidewinder Brad Ziegler on a 1-year, $1.25 million to avoid arbitration. It’s somewhat fair to suggest that he is a gimmick hurler, but at the same time he has a 2.51 ERA and a 2.79 GB/FB ratio over 193.2 innings pitched. He is an excellent setup man who keeps the ball on the ground and avoids the big inning.

The A’s surprised many by signing fireballer Grant Balfour to serve as the 8th inning bridge to Bailey (Balfour was given a 2-year deal for $8.1 million). I already broke down Balfour in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec.29, but here is a quick recap – Balfour throws hard, strikes out a ton of batters, and is almost impossible to square up consistently if you have a bat in your hands.

So the A’s were set then, right? Not quite. They surprisingly swooped in and added another top flight arm to their bullpen in Brian Fuentes whom they agreed to a 2-year deal with (no dollar figures are known yet, but it’s been rumored to be a deal for as much as $12 million which seems high to me, but we’ll have to see). I wrote about Fuentes about a week ago in Signings and Strategy where I laid out the case that this guy is still a high level reliever despite the perception in some circles that he is no longer a strong late inning option.

The A’s didn’t sign Carl Crawford or trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the accumulation of their “small” deals has greatly improved a club that could sneak up on many in the 2011 season.

By Ray Flowers

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 23, 2010

(1) David DeJesus out for the year with injured thumb.

(2) It’s true, Brian Roberts is back.

(3) Carl Crawford returns to the starting lineup.

(4) Justin Masterson could be shut down in September.

(5) Rangers could get Rich Harden and Derek Holland back soon.

(6) J.A. Happ to return to Phillies because of injury to Jamie Moyer.

(7) The Royals have recalled Alex Gordon. Should you care? Read Five Questions to find out (there is also more in that piece about Roberts return and what to do with Happ).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 21, 2010

(1) Clayton Kershaw suspended, then appeals suspension.

(2) Brett Myers, 20 starts, 20 outings of at least six innings.

(3) Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Jayson Werth, Prince Fielder, Jorge Cantu, Adam LaRoche rumors heating up.

(4) Mets looking to bolster bullpen.

(5) Pedro Martinez will not pitch in 2010.

(6) Scott Sizemore to play third base for Tigers.

(7) Carl Crawford doesn’t wear a cup.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 21, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion was demoted then designated for assignment by Blue Jays.

(2) Ryan Franklin will likely retire after the 2011 season.

(3) David DeJesus is on fire in June, and he’s also on the trade market.

(4) Mariano Rivera has retired 21-straight batters. He has lost nothing with age.

(5) The Yankees will skip the next turn in rotation for Phil Hughes.

(6) Rookie update – Carlos Santana hitting .393 in nine games. Mike Stanton hitting .233. Stephen Strasburg sets record with 32 Ks in first three starts.

(7) David Aardsma might be on the trade block, and if he is, many teams will be interested.

By Ray Flowers