Mailbag: May 17, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Jason Motte for Bryce Harper. Too much?
– ErikJKatz

We’re all aware of it by now, but the attrition rate of closers this season is better than 50 percent, and that’s just stupefying. What it means is that if you can find a guy who appears to be locked into the 9th inning you better only move him if you are getting a killer deal. Motte has blown two of nine save chances, but he’s locked in for the Cardinals. Motte has pushed his K/9 rate to elite levels at 10.34, and he’s continued to be stingy with the free pass (2.30 per nine) leading to an uber-impressive 4.50 K/BB mark. That’s pretty rare territory an a great indicator that some serious success is going to be heading your way. You could claim small sample size – we’re only taking 15.2 innings for 2012 – so let’s go back to the start of the 2010 season for a broader perspective. In 136 innings Motte has a 2.25 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, 8.93 K/9 mark an a 3.55 K/BB ratio. Those are elite numbers, no?

Harper, the Golden Boy of baseball, has done about what I expected from the youngster. He’s had moments of success and failure intermixed. It’s only been 17 games, and given his age you’d have to say his start has been a success, but at the same time he’s hitting .238 and has a mere .319 OBP. The .460 SLG is solid, but people are expecting more than a homer every 32 at-bats with Bryce Harper (he has two in 63 this season). The fact of the matter is that at this point he really doesn’t profile as more than a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

If it’s a re-draft league give me Mr. Motte.

My David Ortiz for his Jonathan Papelbon in a H2H League? My closers are David Robertson, Henry Rodriguez, Joe Nathan and Dale Thayer.
– @lilpuppy99

The reliever carousel continues…

Robertson thinks he can return in two weeks from his oblique issue, but how often do we see that happen when that part of the body is injured? Plus, if Rafael Soriano takes off and has a hot start working the 9th, will Robertson just be returned to his familiar 8th inning role?

Rodriguez is dealing with three factors. (1) He’s recently had some tightness in his forearm. (2) His performance of late has been spotty. In his last six appearances he’s walked five batters an allowed six runs over 4.2 innings. (3) Brad Lidge appears to be nearing a return to health, and Drew Storen as well (Storen could be more than a month away though).

Nathan looks pretty much as good as ever. He’s starting to hit 95-96 mph on the gun. He’s converted eight of nine save chances. His ERA is 2.87, his WHIP is 1.15, his K/9 10.91 and his K/BB 9.50. He appears to be “back.”

Thayer has locked down the 9th for the Padres going 4-for-4 in saves and pushing his career mark to one walk in 34 innings. However, as soon as Huston Street is ready to return Thayer loses his job with the Padres.

Papelbon is dominating hitters as he always does: 2.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.80 K/9, 4.50 K/BB, 10-for-10 in saves. Nuff said.

Ortiz (.345-8-27-27) has been spectacular so far. At the same time, there are concerns. (1) He only qualifies at DH/Utility limiting his value a bit. (2) After a blazing start that included a .405 average, six homers and 20 RBI in his first 22 games, Ortiz has slowed greatly hitting .259-2-7 over his last 15 contests. Hot starts often blind people to the facts which follow. (A) Ortiz is not a .345 hitter. In fact, three of the past four years he’s failed to hit even .275.  He won’t keep up his current pace. Do you really think he’s going to have his best line drive rate since 2005 this year? Do you also think that a guy with a career .304 BABIP is doing to post a career best .357 mark this season? (B) Despite the success, Ortiz is actually taking walks at a 10 year low, and while I’d like to believe he’s capable of offsetting that by posting a career low K-rate, I find that unlikely to be the case in his 16th big league season.

So do you trade for Papelbon given the fact that three of your four closers may not hold their current 9th inning spots in a month? Ortiz is a high price to pay given that he will be a strong producer all season, but I’d get the Phillies’ closer.

Should I pick up and stash Ubaldo Jimenez? Does he turn it around?
– @Rangerjayfilm

Since I’m sich a glass is half full type, let’s start with the positive.

Ubaldo still alive.

So ends the positive talk.

Facetiousness aside, there’s not much to hang ones hat on here (people see to agree over at Fleaflicker as well where he is owned in only 64 percent of leagues).

A better than eight per nine strikeout guy in his career Ubaldo is currently sitting at 5.48 per nine. Part of the blame there is the fact that his 96.1 mph fastball from 2009-10 is now resting at 92 mph. You can also blame his one time 86 mph slider that now resides at 82 mph. His change up is also down from 87 mph to 83 by the way. The fact of the matter is that he’s lost four mph the past two years, and that’s alarming to say the least. Equally disturbing is that the downward movement that made Ubaldo such a special pitcher has apparently deserted him along with the speed. A one time 50+ percent ground ball arm, that number has dipped from 54.4, to 52.5, to 48.8 to 47.2 percent the past four years. This year, he’s taken another significant step back with that number dropping down to 41 percent.

Struggling to put hitters away, he’s not only been as wild as ever, he’s actually been way worse. However between 3.51 and 3.74 walks the past three years, he’s added nearly three full batters to that mark this year (6.26).  You cannot have success walking that many batters. Ask Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez.

Given his stuff Ubaldo can still get batters out and have success as a big league starter, but with his inability to throw quality strikes and to avoid walks, there’s little chance he turns things around to previous levels unless he somehow magically rediscovers his lost heat. Where’s Rumpelstiltskin when you need to make a wish?

Can David Freese keep this up? Offered Freese for Chris Young.
– @FranksYanks23

Recall above when I wrote about perception becoming reality for some people? Take the case of Freese and look at his numbers the first two months.

April: .333-5-20 with a .935 OPS
May: .222-3-8 with a .786 OPS

In April he was George Brett. In May he’s been Melvin Mora. So are you asking me if he can keep up April or May? The truth lies in the middle since he’s neither Brett nor Mora. Overall he’s appeared in 35 of 37 Cardinals games, and given his track record it’s hard to believe he will be able to keep up that pace. I also feel pretty comfortable in stating that he isn’t a 35 home run, 120 RBI bat he’s on pace to be right now. In truth, I’d be a bit surprised if he’s even a 25-95 bat given the health concerns and the lack of elite power. Also don’t overlook the fact that while his .287 batting average is a strong mark that it would actually be, barely, a four year low.

Young should be back by the end of this week or the start of next week. Before injuring his shoulder he was off to a dynamic start as he was hitting .410 with five homers, 13 RBI and two steals through 11 games. An option to go 20/20 every season, Young has long struggled to lift his batter average to the realm of respectability (he’s never hit .260 in a season). Given that he’s coming back from an injured shoulder he’s basically having to start over meaning that you’ll likely be best served to reset your expectations for Young back to where they were eight weeks ago. Forget the hot start and look at him as a fella who could be a batting average drain while being a potentially significant source of counting category numbers in the outfield.

Do you need outfield help? Are you looking for a speed boost? If so, the easy answer is obviously Young. If you’re looking for some corner infield help and batting average security, the answer is square in the other camp of Freese. Without knowing the answer to those two questions I’d go with the more dynamic talents of Young who can give me 20 steals if pushed, but there are certainly plenty of scenarios in which it would make more sense to hold on to Freese.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

The Fantasy Beat: Week 1 & Beyond

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss cheap draft day hitters that are off to a great start on the young season. They will tell you what which of these guys to believe in, and which guys to wait on.

J.D. Martinez, Raul Ibanez, Jordan Schafer, David Freese, Omar Infante, Zack Cozart and Brett Lawrie (who has stunk so far, though it’s still early of course).

Listen to the Audio.

The Fantasy Beat: Surviving the 3B Drop-Off

 Everyone has heard that 3B is one of the scarcest positions this year so Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down players to grab if you have missed the elite options at the position (Ray Flowers also wrote an article about the third base position as well in Third Base, A Wasteland?).

Listen to the Audio.

Player Profile: David Freese

Ask anyone in St. Louis and they will tell you that David Freese is akin to Perseus of Clash of the Titans fame. Why do I say that? Did you see his postseason run in 2011? Try an 18 game stretch that included five homers, 21 RBI, a .397 batting average an a 1.258 OPS. It was, simply put, one of the greatest playoff performances in the history of the game. Does that mean that Freese will be an elite level option at the hot corner in the coming season?

Freese may not have always wanted to play baseball, he’s quit playing in the past and has had some alcohol related issues off the field, but there is no disputing that when he has been on the diamond he has been very good. In 399 minor league games Freese has hit .307 with a .915 OPS. He’s also driven in 306 runners while scoring 273 times in those 1,471 at-bats. Those are some impressive numbers are they not? Moving up to the big league level, Freese has appeared in about half as many games (184), but he’s continued to hit. Over the course of 604 at-bats Freese has been able to bat .298. Even more impressive is the fact that he has hit at least .296 in each of his three seasons (.323, .296 and .297). Given that we’ve seen him be a .300 hitter for the duration of his professional career, there is little doubt that he could reach that level in 2012. One caveat. As a Cardinal he’s posted a wildly high BABIP of .365 and 22.9 line drive percentage for his short career. It’s certainly possible that he will be able to sustain both of those numbers moving forward, but if you’ve read any of my work over the years you know how nervous I get when someone is over .350 and 22.0 percent – even if they seemingly have shown an ability to replicate those numbers.

Never a speedster, Freese has had all kinds of issues with his ankles the past few years rendering him as a non entity in the stolen base column (he’s just two of three in steal attempts in his career). However, most third basemen aren’t known for their speed, so this makes him more average than someone to worry about on draft day.

The main issue with Freese is two-fold. (1) Can his body withstand the rigors of playing 150 games (to this point it hasn’t seemed like his body can). (2) Does he have enough power to be a solid option at the hot corner? Freese hit 26 homers in 2007 at Triple-A Memphis, but the PCL is a notorious hitter’s league, though he did average 23 homers per 500 minor league at-bats. That power hasn’t really shown itself in the bigs though as he hit 10 homers last season in 333 at-bats and 15 in 604 at-bats with the Cards. Will that rate improve? If could, but given that his career ground ball rate is 50.5 percent, and that he owns a 1.90 GB/FB ratio, his profile is way more Chone Figgins than it is Aramis Ramirez. The bottom line is that unless he hit a whole bunch more balls in the air, and I’m talking increasing his pathetic 26.6 percent fly ball ratio to at least the league average (37 percent), he has virtually not shot at  blasting 20 long balls.

It’s all about value with Freese in 2012. If someone at the draft table remembers the 2011 playoffs like they were yesterday, the cost for Freese will likely be prohibitive. It would also be advisable not to spend like Freese is a lock for a .300-20-90 season – he isn’t. But, if you can wait at third base, realize the type of hitter that Freese really is, and draft him accordingly, he could end up being a very solid hot corner option if you are able to add power bats at other positions.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Game 7

The Cardinals were, not once but twice, one out from elimination on Thursday night, but both times they rallied for one of the most dramatic endings to a game in World Series history. As a result of their 10-9 victory in the 11th inning over the Rangers, the scene is set for Game 7 tonight at 8:05 PM EDT. Here are some random thoughts about everything playoffs.

This was just the third time in the history of the World Series that a team came back from being one out from elimination. The 1986 Mets accomplished the feat. Some of you will remember that contest. I will venture to guess though that not a single person reading this piece will remember the other time it occurred. It was before the Vietnam War. It predated World War II. My goodness, it was even before World War I. The other time it happened was when the 1911 Giants pulled off the trick.

The Cardinals have won more Game 7′s in the World Series than any other team. They have gone 7-3 in their 10 chances.

Speaking of World Series titles, most know the Yankees lead the way with 27 championships since 1903. How many of you realized that the Cardinals are second on that list with 10? Speaking of championships, the Rangers are one of eight teams that have yet to taste World Series triumph (Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Ray and Nationals). Amongst those clubs, none has been a team longer than the Rangers who are one year older than the Astros.

There were 393 pitches thrown in Game 7.

Neftali Feliz had not blown a save chance in 17 postseason appearances heading into Game 6.

David Freese is just killing it this postseason. Besides hitting .393 with a .448 OBP, he’s also sporting a Bondsian 1.235 OPS. Freese has gone deep five times and hit seven triples in just 17 games as he has plated 19 runners. Oh, and that walk-off homer from last night was just the fifth in a Game 6 or Game 7 in the history of the World Series (the last to pull off the trick was Joe Carter in 1993 for the Blue Jays). You would be hard pressed to find a more productive postseason in the history of the game.

Nelson Cruz has an injured groin, but he’s expected to play in Game 7. He’s tied Barry Bonds (2002) and Carlos Beltran (2004) for most homers in a single postseason with eight. Speaking of a wonderful run in the playoffs, Cruz has those eight homers and 16 RBI in 16 postseason games. He’s only batting .241, but he does have a 1.023 OPS for the Rangers.

Josh Hamilton is all beat up. A 30 homer threat every year, it took him 61 at-bats to hit his first postseason home run in Game 6. Hamilton has been a shell of his powerful self this postseason (.273/.292/.409).

To close… did you actually count out the Cardinals last night? You do remember that they came back from a 10.5 game deficit to overtake the Braves for the NL Wild Card, right?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 9, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I receive questions on a 24 hour basis. Here are some of those questions and my thoughts.

I have to keep two: Jeremy Hellickson, C.J. Wilson and Justin Masterson. Which two stay?
– @BradfordEra

Ah, gotta love those shallow leagues.

Hellickson has a 3.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his rookie season as he has been as good as advertised. Unlike other rookies, he is showing no signs of fading either as he has allowed two runs in his last two starts and three of fewer in each of his last eight outings. In fact, seven of those eight times on the hill have produced a “quality start.” There is no reason to turn away from him at this point.

Wilson bounced back in his last outing with nine Ks and two earned runs allowed after getting lit up for 10 earned runs (13 total) in his previous two outings. He’s been pretty uneven of late permitting four or more earned runs four times in his last nine starts while in the other five he’s allowed two or fewer. Still, he has 29 Ks in 29.1 innings over his last five starts, and despite the two shelling his ERA is a palatable 3.99 in that time.

Masterson has been on quite a role as well. Over his last 10 starts he has lowered his ERA from 3.18 down to 2.63 as only once has he allowed more than four runs. Moreover, he’s actually allowed as many as four earned runs only twice in those 10 starts. He’s also been locked in when it comes to throwing strikes as he has walked a total of 11 batters in those 10 outings.

So who do you drop? None really. All are pitching well and all sport solid skills that speak to the ability of each to carry on the solid work they have offered to this point. If pressed to drop one I’d move on from Masterson, but as you can tell, I’m really not a fan of doing that.

I Lost Chase Headley/Daniel Murphy/Adrian Beltre to injuries …need a 3B…Casey McGehee, Danny Valencia or David Freese?
– @IsabelTrent

That’s about as bad a run of luck as anyone could possible fall in. Brutal.

Do you want to add Freese given your lack of luck? Freese is expected to return to the Cards lineup on Tuesday from a concussion that he suffered Thursday last week. He should be fine, but given your run of injury, do you have the stomach to add Freese? If you do you would be adding a guy who is batting .320 this year and one who owns a .308 career mark in 465 at-bats. The guy can hit no doubt, even if his power reminds you more of Wade Boggs than Mike Schmidt.

Valencia has quietly been a solid run producer this season. Danny has 12 homers on the year, just one less than Alex Rodriguez. He has 58 RBI, the same total as Evan Longoria. He has 42 runs scored, the same total as Chase Headley. There are negatives with Valencia, chiefly his .242 average and .287 OBP, but he has been moving the arrow there as well of late. Since the start of July Valencia has hit .291 with a .319 OBP. OK, the OBP is awful, but the .291 average is much more like the rookie who hit .311 last year in Minnesota.

McGehee was great in two thirds of a season in 2009, and last year he posted 23 homers and 104 RBI. He was going in the top-10 at third base in almost all drafts this season. McG then proceeded to hit .218 in May and .177 in June as he hit one long ball in 51 games. Unbelievable. However, he’s awoken of late with 12 RBI in his last 10 games, and with that big three homer game on August 3rd he caught everyone’s attention. I would add Valencia here. However, if you don’t mind rolling the dice when you could end up crapping out, Freese would be an intriguing add batting behind Berkman, Holliday and Pujols in St. Louis.

Is Jesus Montero worth grabbing for cheap in a league that keeps 10 players now?
– @Trevorpace24

The short answer is yes, add Montero. As for the reasons, there are a couple that really stand out..

First, Montero will one day be a middle of the order bat on a championship level team. He’s always flashed an elite level stick, and scouts will tell you that the ball just jumps off his bat. Now he’s had some issues with concentration and focus this season, and it’s not like his numbers at Triple-A jump off the page (.289-11-51 in 90 games), but you can just see the potential oozing out of his pours.

Second, the Yankees offense has a black hole right now at designated hitter. Jorge Posada has been filling the role for much of the season, but it’s time to face facts – he just hasn’t gotten it done this year with a .231 average, a .309 OBP and a sickly .372 SLG  How does that line compare to his career levels? Atrociously – .273/.374/.474. Posada has also gone 27 games without going deep, and during that time he has all of four RBI. He’s also hitting a mere .103 against lefties on the year (58 at-bats), and he has looked totally lost on the road (.173/.254/.276 with two homers). If not for all the offensive fireworks going on around him this year in New York his failings would be more front and center. Moreover, a report Monday in The Journal News says Posada’s rope may have finally run out.  “[Manager Joe Girardi] said he was going to put the best lineup on the field, and he doesn’t know when I’m going to DH again,” Posada said. “So right now I’m sitting on the bench.”

The supposition is that Montero could be called up from the minors to take over the bulk of the designated hitter duties. Even if Montero doesn’t play a major role this season, adding him in a league that protects 10 players is a good idea. Catcher eligible players who can blast 25 homers are rare, and in a worst case scenario Jesus would have a whole lot of value if you wanted to trade him. After all, everyone loves rookies almost as much as they love those Yankees.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Second Year Players

Never one to turn away from my loyal followers, I was posed a question by Eric in the Comments section of the site: could I review some of the 2011 players who are heading into their second season and give my thoughts on their 2011 outlooks? You got it Eric. Here goes.

Brennan Boesch (current ADP from MockDraftCentral – outside the top-400): Check out his 2010 splits from the first half (.342-12-49 with a .990 OPS) and the second (.163-2-18 with a .458 OPS). He’s obviously neither hitter, and in fact his season long numbers are about what you would expect given his skill set (.256-14-67 with a .736 OPS). A repeat of last seasons numbers is certainly possibly, perhaps with some incremental growth, but that will only occur if he sees as much playing time as he did last season and at this point that is far from certain to occur. And don’t forget that he hit a mere .233 against righties while scorching lefties to the tun of a .337 mark with a .951 OPS. Those numbers make it seem like a platoon situation is possible, especially if he struggles early.

Starlin Castro (164): He had a tremendous season for the 20 year old as he hit .300 in 2010 for the Cubbies. However, he also hit only three homers and stole just 10 bases, so there wasn’t huge fantasy value produced by the Cubs’ shortstop. His value at this point of his development is basically what he can offer in the batting average and steals categories. Castro is fast, but expecting the leap to even 20 steals this season might be a bit much. As for the average, it should remain stable given his speed and the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (1.76 GB/FB rate). At the same time, how much would you pay for a .300-5-50-75-15 season which would seem to be his upside in 2011. I’d rather take Jason Bartlett at pick #367 overall, some 200 selections later.

Ike Davis(268): Everyone in New York thinks Davis will become the next Mark Teixeira. Me? Not so much. Davis still has that hand hitch in his swing to worry about, he struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats in ’10, and he plays in a park that isn’t exactly a homer haven. Davis also had a poor line drive rate of under 17 percent (the big league average is about 19-20 percent) which doesn’t at all support his .321 BABIP from last season. Add that up and I think he has just as good a chance to hit .250 as he does to hit .280. Given that fact, and his rather middling power for a first baseman, I really don’t see the urge to roster him in mixed leagues unless you are talking about him as a corner infield option.

Wade Davis (395): Drafters aren’t giving Davis much love. Maybe it’s because of all the young arms in Tampa that cause Davis to get lost in the shuffle? A sturdy 6’5″ and about 225 lbs., Davis seems physically capable of handling whatever innings the Rays want to throw his way. He was solid last season with a big league average walk rate (3.32 per nine), his ERA was just a hair over four at 4.07 (a pretty good mark in the AL East), while his WHIP of 1.35 was passable. He will need to curtail his homer rate a bit, it was 1.29 per nine last season, but that could easily be accomplished if he split the difference between his fly ball rate in six starts in 2009 (36 percent) and 29 last year (44 percent). The biggest concern here is where did the Ks go? After posting an 8.74 K/9 mark in the minors he was at 8.92 per nine in ’09 with the Rays. If he can add a strikeout to his mark of just 6.05 from last year, that will go a long way to making him relevant in mixed leagues.

David Freese (396): Freese has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats after hitting .308 in the minors. Clearly, the average is legit. However, he has only five homers in the bigs and has hit a rather pedestrian 17 homers over his last 500 at-bats including his minor league work. The biggest concern with him though is his health. Freese had both of his ankles operated on, and though everyone is hoping he will be ready for opening day, there is certainly some concern (the team has already announced that Allen Craig will see more time at third in spring in case he is needed in season). At this point I’m only taking Freese as an NL-only option at the corner infield spot, but there is some upside if he’s healthy.

Austin Jackson (319): Jackson led baseball with a .396 BABIP in 2010. There is no chance he repeats that number in 2011. Yes, players establish their own baseline in BABIP, and yes, fast players often surpass the major league average in BABIP (which is about .300 by the way). Still, there is no way that he will be able to push .400 again. Honestly, I think he has a hard time pushing .350. That said, his average could dip quite a bit from his .293 mark of last season. He could steal 30 bases and hit a few more homers, but that average is gonna come down. I mean for goodness sakes, the guy struck out 170 times last year and hit four homers. That’s plain awful.

Gaby Sanchez (234): A fourth round selection in 2005, Sanchez went to college meaning that he is already 27 years old which should temper somewhat the thought that he could take a major step forward in his second full season in the bigs. We all look for power at the corner infield spot, and with Sanchez it’s much more Lyle Overbay than Prince Fielder. Sanchez had a nine percent HR/F ratio, right on the big league average in 2010. The only reason he hit 19 homers was the fact that he produced a high 46 percent fly ball rate. If that number regresses even slightly in 2011, 25 homers will be a pipe dream. Draft Sanchez expecting a repeat or slight improvement from last season, but don’t draft him expecting a breakout season.

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers