Mound Mayhem

Fantasy baseball revolves around two key things – hitting and pitching (a genius statement I know). Today I’ll break down some of the arms on the hill. Which underperformering arms should you be looking at? What will the Cubs and D’backs do in the 9th inning? I know, riveting ain’t it?

Yovani Gallardo is always up and down. It’s been more down than up though this season, and that is causing concern. He does have a win in three of four outings, and he’s walked two or fewer batters in six of seven outings. The K’s haven’t been there, just 26 in 42 innings, and his velocity is down 1.5 mph from his career mark, but I’d bet on the K’s increasing as the innings pile up. He, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are the only three hurlers with 200 Ks each of the past four years.

To see how others are evaluating Gallardo, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Dale Sveum, the manager of the Cubs, said that Kevin Gregg will remain the Cubs’ closer even when Kuji Fujikawa returns from injury. That is a horrible decision. Gregg went for at least 22 saves from 2007-11, but he was never good. I mean they ‘he’s done it before’ argument is just a horrible one to hang your hat on Mr. Sveum. Oh, and the ‘he’s been great this year” argument is horrible as well. You can’t say that 7.1 scoreless innings matters much in the grand scheme. Here are the facts. (1) Gregg has an ERA under 4.37 in one of the past four years. (2) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.30 was 2008. (3) The last three years his K/BB ratio has been under 2.00. (4) His 0.97 career GB/FB ratio is poor. It might look good now, but the Cubs will eventually rue this decision – or maybe their bullpen is just that bad.

Just cause. The lovely Kate Beckinsale.

Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s struck out 27 batters in 29.2 innings, and batters are hitting .219 against him. He’s also allowed two runs over his last two outings, both victories. It’s also nice to see his GB/FB ratio back in the 1.40 range after dipping all the way down to 1.00 last year. He’s still getting pounded deep, his 1.52 HR/9 mark is literally double his 0.74 career mark, but that should come back to earth, at least a little bit. He’ll never be the arm he once was but maybe he’ll end up being a solid AL-only arm before it’s all said and done (how scary is it to read his velocity number the last four years – 96.1, 93.5, 92.5 and 91.6 mph?).

Scott Kazmir has made three starts with a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP for the Indians. Consider me shocked (not really). He has struck out more than a batter per inning for those looking for a positive and his fastball has been sitting at 91 mph, not bad for a guy who couldn’t crack 88 mph in 2011. Still, please tell me you aren’t holding out hope of a return to prominence.

J.J. Putz has a forearm issue, and it sounds like there is a chance he could end up on the DL. Who takes over if that happens? It seems like the only question I get on a daily basis – who is working the 9th inning? OK, it’s not the only question, but it is literally something like a third of the questions I receive – the bullpen one. Anyway, here are the three options for the Diamondbacks if Putz is down and out.

Heath Bell saved at least 40 games from 2009-11. He sucked eggs last year (5.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). He’s been better this year but that’s not saying much (4.73 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Bell has punched out 19 batters while walking only three over 13.1 innings, so he’s actually pitched decently despite the ratios.

David Hernandez has struck out 16 batters in 15.2 innings. However, he’s also seen a big increase in his walk rate, up from 2.90 per nine last year to 4.60 per nine this year. He should see that number come down a bit. Also, like so many others who are struggling, he’s been the victim of the long ball. In 2011 Hernandez allowed four homers in 69.1 innings. Last year he allowed four homers in 68.1 innings. This season he’s allowed four homers in 15.2 innings. I’ll leave it to you to delineate the outlier.

Matt Reynolds has made 17 appearances this season without allowing a run. That’s pretty good. He’s also walked only one batter while striking out 14 in 16.1 innings. He’s rocking and rolling. He’s also left-handed and has only two saves in 182 career outings.

Hernandez is the guy I would roll the dice on, though late word is that it is Bell who will be installed as the closer if Putz hits the DL as expected.

It’s Ryan Vogelsong week if judged by my email box. Everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Giants’ righty with the 7.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. My thoughts. (1) His 7.71 K/9 mark would be a career best. (2) His 2.50 K/BB ratio is better than his 2.28 mark of two years ago and just under his 2.55 mark from last year. (3) His BABIP is .352. That mark has been in the .280′s the past two years. (4) His 1.14 GB/FB ratio is an exact match for last year. (5) His 4.27 xFIP is barely off last years 4.15 mark. (6) His HR/9 mark is 2.06. If you add his mark the past two years you get – 1.56. That’s right, he’s currently allowing homers at double his career rate. That has to normalize at some point.
By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.4

Oh those injuries. They can be a killer in fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, they are a fact of life. Injuries will happen. You have to able to adapt and work around that. Truthfully, these 2-3 week fill-in’s you add to your club will go a long way to determining whether or not you are in contention in September. Choose wisely young padawan.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Just so you know that you aren’t the only one dealing with injuries, here are the players on my club that are currently on the disabled list: Zack Greinke, Joel Hanrahan, Cameron Maybin, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. And there are only 27 players rostered in this league, so that’s a pretty good chunk of them. So this week I had to make a couple of moves. I added Eric Sogard ($1) to take over for Ruben Tejada since I cannot afford to have a guy who is day-to-day given all my other injuries. I also added Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. I’m not expecting him to remain the hurler has been so far, but I will also note that since he joined the Royals last season, he’s been more effective than he should be (7-3, 3/32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 116.2 IP). I also added two start hurler Mike Leake (at home versus the Cubs and on the road versus the Nationals).

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($19), Wade Davis ($7), Travis Snider ($6) and Jorge De La Rosa ($5).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Here we go again. With the injuries I mean. Sergio Santos, Jeff Niemann and Michael Pineda are on the DL. I was able to make a move this week to add an arm to cover for Santos. I was the lucky, or unlucky depending how you look at it, winner of Aaron Harang for ($7). I know, I know, but sometimes you have to go for it in leagues that are this deep. With Joe Blanton and Ubaldo Jimenez really struggling, I had to take a shot on another starting arm.

Notable bids: Luis Jimenez ($13), Corey Kluber ($5), Brandon Laird ($4), Oswaldo Arcia ($4) and Allen Webster ($3 though he has since been demoted)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Back up the injury train cause Ray is ready to be the conductor! The following players are on the DL: Hanley Ramirez, Joel Hanrahan, Shaun Marcum, Sean Marshall and Sergio Santos (Kevin Youkilis and Asdrubal Cabrera are both injured too). I added Eric Sogard, noticing a theme here?, for $19. I really would have rather had Eric Young Jr. but I needed the help up the middle more than in the outfield (my bid on EYJ was $18, the same as the winning bid). I also came up short on Mujica (my bid was $77) so I ended up with David Hernandez ($17), and elite setup man who would likely excel if something were to happen to J.J. Putz. By the way, I’m the Putz owner in this league, so I gave myself a bit of a shelter. As I always say, be proactive with middle relievers. This week Hernandez costs less than $20. If Putz were to blow his arm out, he’d likely go for $200 or more next week.

Notable bids: Edward Mujica ($267), Tony Cingrani ($185), Didi Gregorius ($121), Anthony Rendon ($71), Garrett Richards ($56) and Andrew Cashner ($44).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Hanley Ramirez was going to be my ace at shortstop this season. For now, that plan is on hold. Luckily I have Martin Prado to fill in (he’s shortstop eligible in this league… even though he didn’t play 20 games there last season). With Andrelton Simmons struggling, I felt like I needed to do something up the middle. Luckily, Neil Walker was released, a huge mistake if you ask me. I likely overspent to get him, $37 of my $100, but I think he’s a top-10 second base option and with my weakness up the middle, I went for it.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($24), Edward Mujica ($16), Carlos Marmol ($7), John Buck ($5) and Ross Detwiler ($5).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire, and I need it with the following fellas on the DL: Michael Saunders, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Reyes and Joel Hanrahan. Oh, I also had Cameron Maybin hit the DL this past week, and with all the injuries I have, and the chance that his wrist issue keeps him out longer than 15 days, I felt like I had to make a move so I moved on from Maybin for Will Venable (I would like to hold Maybin in an ideal world, but I just have too many injuries right now to do that). I was also quick to the waiver-wire last Monday as I added Edward Mujica to bolster my bullpen.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Chris Getz is hitting under .250 and hadn’t stolen a base. Time to drop him (he was added cause Hanley Ramirez was DL’d then his MI replacement, Gordon Beckham, was also placed on the DL). I added Eric Sogard for $12 (out of $1,000. I bid $14 on Crawford, but as you can see another was more sold on the hot start than I was. I still think this hot start is just a hot start. Don’t love the skills). I wasn’t able to get Mujica (my bid was $77), but I rostered Joaquin Benoit instead ($42). Didn’t have room for Drew Smyly, but I really wish I did since it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him inserted into that Tigers’ rotation soon since Rick Porcello continues to stink.

Notable bids: Anthony Rendon ($188), Tony Cingrani ($160), Edward Mujica ($133), Peter Bourjos ($100), Brandon Crawford ($50).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): In this $100 FAAB league, I failed to get Andrew Bailey ($17), but I was able to emerge with Edward Mujica ($16). Might turn out for the best cause I’m not certain Bailey is going to keep the closing job once Joel Hanrahan is healthy. I wasn’t getting much out of Kelly Johnson up the middle so I took the plunge on rookie/potential phenom Anthony Rendon ($4). Rendon doesn’t have much power to speak of, but he’s got an excellent approach and cap rap liners out with the best of them. It remains to be seen how long he will be in the daily lineup. He’s got two weeks, with Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, to prove he belongs.

Notable bids: Andrew Bailey ($25), Brandon Crawford ($9), Chris Johnson ($9), Lucas Duda ($5).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers