A Day of Struggles

You’re probably asking yourself why I have a picture of some oddly dressed man tilling the soil accompanying the piece today? The reason is that I’m haunted by gardeners. It seems like there is someone outside my office blowing leaves on a daily basis with one of those gas powered jobs. I swear it’s flipping annoying. Why can’t they all just get together and make Tuesday gardening day? Maybe I’ll get on that in my free time.

There have been three no-hitters thrown this year, and each pitcher that tossed one had a losing record at the time of their no-no: Justin Verlander was 2-3, Francisco Liriano was 1-4 while Ervin Santana was 5-8 meaning we got three no-hitters from guys who were a combined 8-15. What is it that I always say about win-loss records…

A couple of pitchers who just aren’t getting it done of late – here’s a lefty and a righty.

Barry Zito: 10.25 ERA over his last three starts.
Joel Pineiro: 14.85 ERA over his last four starts.

Zito is now on the DL with a foot issue, and Pineiro could have pitched his way out of the Angel’s starting rotation with his recent work (optoins include Garrett Richards, Hisanori Takahashi and Trevor Bell).

David Wright is back. Since he returned from the DL, he was on the outs because of a back issue, he has hit .392 with 13 RBI. At the other end of the spectrum, you know the end that you don’t want to have right in your face, Adam Lind has hit .093 the past two weeks. How is that possible? In case you haven’t noticed, Lind’s average is down to .273 as he has hit .196 over his last 27 games. Since we’re talking about struggling hitters, I felt I had to mention Matt Joyce. The Rays’ slugger, and I use that term loosely, has hit .241 in 17 games since the All-Star break which is actually a massive improvement over the .173 he hit in June and .184 he hit in July. The duo has rather similar totals to this point of the year.

Joyce: .282-15-50-54 with a .845 OPS
Lind: .273-19-59-43 with a .800 OPS

WHO AM I?

I have a better ERA than James Shields, Scott Baker, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

I have a better WHIP than all but four pitchers in baseball.

I have more strikeouts than Bud Norris, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Matt Cain and Josh Beckett.

Who am I?

Alex Rodriguez is an idiot. He did performance enhancing drugs, he dated Cameron Diaz and caused a nauseating scene at the Super Bowl which I detailed in A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest. Now there are allegations of underground gambling. I’m telling you, I just don’t get it. Why do athletes systematically engage in self destructive behavior? Perhaps it’s the sense of entitlement they feel because people have been kissing their asses since they were old enough to wipe them on their own. Just makes me sick.

The answer to the question – Who Am I? -  is the Angels’ Dan Haren. The Angel’s ace has an 11-6 record, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 131 Ks. Haren is currently the 21st most valuable player in baseball – at least according to Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

First Round, 2011

It’s months away, and you’re likely either (a) intensely watching the playoffs, (b) knee deep in fantasy football or (C) all excited about fantasy hockey or basketball, but it’s never too early to look ahead. So, and I’m sure this list will change innumerable times before the actual 2011 drafting season is upon us, in honor of my Review: First Round, 2010 article in which I looked back at the top-15 choices in a National Fantasy Baseball Championship draft from the just completed season, here is my early projection of what the first round of a 2011 draft might look like.

15- Alex Rodriguez
He’s hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI in each of the past 13 seasons, and that is the longest streak in MLB history. He’s the Yankee I think will go in the first round over Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira.

14- Evan Longoria
Entering his fourth season, his career bests in the 5×5 categories would result in a .294-33-113-100-15 line.

13- David Wright
Rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to go .283-29-103-87-19. Wright has hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals in five of the last six years.

12- Josh Hamilton
I wouldn’t take him this early, he’s still a big health risk in my eyes, but he did lead baseball with a .359 average, and he has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI in two of the past three seasons.

11- Chase Utley
An injury limited him to 115 games, but there is no reason to think that he won’t be able to go .285-25-90-100-15 yet again in 2011.

10- Adam Wainwright
Over the past two years Wainwright has 39 victories (2nd in baseball), a 2.53 ERA (2nd), 425 Ks (7th), 3.48 K/BB (10th) and 463.1 IP (6th).

9- Roy Halladay
Lets look at Halladay’s numbers the past two years – 38 wins (3rd), 2.61 ERA (3rd), 427 Ks (6th), 6.57 K/BB (1st) and 489.2 IP (1st). Barely a difference between him and Wainwright.

8- Troy Tulowitzki
He appeared in only 60 games in the second half but still hit .323 with 18 homers, 61 RBI an a 1.020 OPS. Dude is a star.

7- Joey Votto
The likely NL MVP was second in the NL in batting average (.324), third in homers (37), third in RBI (113) and first in OPS (1.024).

6- Miguel Cabrera
His numbers are a near carbon copy of Votto’s (.328-38-126 with a 1.042 OPS) though Miggy gets the nod as the higher selection because he has done it for longer. Amazingly, Cabrera is only five months older.

5- Carlos Gonzalez
He was flipping amazing in ’10 (.336-34-117-111-26), but he must learn how to hit on the road (.289-8-41 with a .775 OPS).

4- Carl Crawford
If we remove the 2008 season, CC has gone at least .301-11-68-89-46 in each of the past five seasons.

3- Hanley Ramirez
He disappointed some after a monstrous 2009 (.342-24-106-101-27) as he produced a 5×5 line of “only” .300-21-76-92-32.

2- Ryan Braun
I’ve got the sneaking suspicion that we haven’t seen the best from him yet, and that is saying something when you consider that his 162 game average is .307-36-118-111-18.

1- Albert Pujols
Until someone dethrones the king, he remains my choice as the top selection. There isn’t a more consistently excellent option in the game – period.

By Ray Flowers

History Comes in Three's

Ichiro beats you to death with singles, Bautista with his blasts, and the San Francisco Giants pitcher’s are beating down every offense they face.

Ichiro Makes History

Ichiro Suzuki racked up his 200th hit today. There are a whole host of interesting tidbits around that effort, and here are a few.

* He has 200 hits in all 10 of his big league seasons
* He is the first player to ever have 10-straight 200 hits seasons.
* Only Ichiro and Pete Rose have had ten 200 hit seasons.
* Since the 2001 season began he has 2,229 hits. Obviously that’s an average of nearly 230 hits a year(with more than a week left in the season, he’ll clearly push that mark even higher).
* Since 2001, no other big leaguer has more than 1,906 hits – Derek Jeter.

Hats off to you Ichiro.

Jose Bautista Hits #50

Jose Bautista hit his 50th homer today, a fact that I spoke to as a forgone conclusion earlier this week in History is at Hand. Here are some tidbits surrounding the remarkable achievement from the man that hit a total of 43 homers the past three years.

* Bautista is the 26th player ever to hit 50 homers in a season.
* He has hit all 50 of his homer to left or left center.
* He has hit 31 homers at home.
* He has hit 26 homers since the All-Star break. Remember, he had never before hit even 17 in a season.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Ryan Howard and Barry Bonds never hit 50 homers in a season (Bonds is cheating – how apropos – as he hit 73 one year though he never actually had a season of between 50-72 homers).

Bautista has 31 homers at home. Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 31 homers this season no matter the locale: Ryan Howard (30), Prince Fielder (30), Mark Teixeira (30), Adrian Gonzalez (29), Matt Holliday (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (26) to name a few.

Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 26 homers, Bautista’s total in the second half in a mere 63 games: David Wright (25), Ryan Zimmerman (25), Jayson Werth (25), Alex Rodriguez (25), Matt Kemp (23), Ryan Braun (23) and Andre Ethier (23).

Yeah, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth too.

One last thought. Ichiro had his 200th hit, and Bautista hit his 50th bomb — in the same game. Don’t you love the symmetry of that?

Giants’ Starters are Aces

The Giants are a half game out of first place behind the San Diego Padres, but the blame for rests solely on the offense and not the dominating pitchers that the team has been running out there.

* The Giants have allowed three of fewer runs in 16-straight games, and that ties single season league record, since 1920 when the “live ball” was introduced. The other two teams to go 16 consecutive games were the 1972 Indians and the 1981 Athletics (the 1942-43 Reds did have a stretch of 20-games).

* The club hasn’t allowed more than four runs in 21-straight, and that is tied for the fifth longest in the live ball era, and the longest streak since the ’81 A’s. The record is 25-straight games by the 1942-43 Cubs, with the single season mark being 23 games by the 1972 Cubs.

* Since August 28th the starting rotation has posted a 2.06 ERA and held batters to a .191 batting average against.

* Over their last 10 starts the rotation has a 1.32 ERA.

So how in the world are the Giants 5-5 in their last 10 games? The blame rests squarely on an offense that he been shut out four times in 10 games. The offense has also produced one or zero runs in eight of the last 13 games.

One last note about the Giants.
They are a major league best 74-22 when they score three or more runs.

By Ray Flowers

Random Thoughts

I felt like doing some random commentary today so what follows, in no particular order, follows that line of thought. – or better yet no line of thought.

I wrote about Andres Torres today in an IMPACT REPORT on Wednesday. I got a very well thought out email from a reader today which pointed out that sometimes guys get labeled as one thing (organizational depth) and never have a chance to bust out from that mold. I certainly agree, but I’m still sticking by what I said in the piece that I’m just not sold that he will be able to sustain his growth this season moving forward. One other little known fact – Torres uses the biggest bat on the Giants (35 inches, 33 ounces). Not bad for a guy who barely checks in at 190 lbs.

Yesterday I wrote about how Albert Pujols has a good chance to win the Triple Crown this season. However, as I was thinking about things today, I was struck by something rather amazing. As great as Pujols has been, and you can make the argument that no player has ever had a better 10-year run to start their career in the history of the game, it’s utterly amazing to think the following:

Albert Pujols has only led the league in average once (.359 in 2003).
Albert Pujols has only lead the league in homers once (47 last year).
Albert Pujols has NEVER led the league in RBI.

Isn’t that amazing? That means that Pujols has only led in the Triple Crown categories twice in his career. Hell, Dante Bichette pulled off that trick in 1995 when he led the NL in homers (40) and RBI (128).

Have you seen Madison Bumgarner in person? That is one big boy. Listed at 6’4″, 215 lbs, he is every bit of that. He might still get bigger too. The kid is only 21 years old (he reached that age just over three weeks ago). Don’t know how he gave up three first inning homers to the Reds on Wednesday though. Despite the rough outing, he still has an extremely bright future, and with his loose arm action I’m looking at him as a potentially dominating ace on the hill now that his fastball is back in the 93-94 mph range.

The last 30 days Garrett Jones is hitting .165, the worst mark in baseball, just ahead of the .170 total posted by Felipe Lopez. If you add up those two marks you end up at .335 which is a mere .121 points worse than the .456 mark of Joe Mauer. The previously mentioned Mr. Pujols leads the NL with a .398 mark.

Joey Votto is here to stay as a top fantasy option, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The man has a smooth stroke and isn’t afraid to go the other way. He should be a .300 hitter with 30 homers for years to come.

Brennan Boesch has scored four runs the past 30 days despite coming to the plate 104 times. That’s putrid.

I know Jose Bautista has gone deep 40 times, and dating back to last season he has 50 homers in his last 154 games, but are you buying this power surge? After all, the guy hit just 43 homers the past three years over 1,238 at-bats. So again, are you buying this? I put the over/under on his homer total at 31 for 2010.

Homer Bailey is still just 24 years old. Who knew?

Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .291 with 15 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs and 15 steals despite spending some time on the DL this season. While that level of offensive production may not sound overwhelming, it should be pointed out that he is one of only four men in the game who are hitting .290 with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. The others are Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright and Evan Longoria.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers

Friday Follies

Johnny Cueto was given a seven game suspension for his Bruce Lee like efforts to impale the Cardinals with his Feet of Fury (Bruce Lee was in a movie entitled Fist of Fury). Oh, and in case you have no idea what I’m talking about, Cueto tried to kick about half of the Cardinals team when the Cards and Reds fought recently. Cueto took his suspension like a man, after acting like a child, and he’ll serve the suspension without an appeal.

Chipper Jones will have knee surgery and if his rehab goes well he plans on trying to play next year. I’ll try to rehab this weekend with copious amounts of alcohol so that I can return to work on Sunday night for the radio show I co-host with Kyle Elfrink from 8-12 PM EST called the Fanball Fantasy Recap. By the way, the show is on XM 147 and Sirius 211, and you can read all about it in I’m a Star.

Joe Mauer leads baseball with a .435 batting average the past 30 days (Chris Johnson leads the NL at .432). As pointed out to me today by Kyle Elfrink, Mauer hasn’t a single homer this season at home in 162 at-bats. Mauer’s also gone deep just seven times on the year. Where are those people that called me an utter buffoon when I said before the season started that there was not a scintilla of a chance that Mauer would go deep 30 times this season after hitting 28 big flies last year? Crickets? If we remove those 28 bombs, here is what his homer totals look like since his rookie season: 9, 13, 7, 9 and 7 this year.

Felix Pie is hitting .340 the past two weeks. At the same time he has a .333 OBP as he hasn’t walked a single time in that time. I don’t know if that’s real progress or not (things like sacrifice bunts and sac hits count as plate appearances and will therefore lower a players OBP even if the players batting average is not moved by the outs generated).

Dan Uggla may have “only” 26 hits in his last 25 games (he’s hitting .283 in that time), but he has made those hits count as he has gone deep 10 times, has knocked in 20 runs and has scored 24 times. It’s been said before but it bears repeating: Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball with 4-straight years of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored. All he need is one more homer, 16 more RBI and four more runs scored to run that streak to 5-straight seasons.

Are you following me on Twitter yet at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Account? If your not, and yes I’m biased, your missing out on some of the best baseball knowledge you could ever hope to find. Here are some of my favorites from today.

Casey McGehee has 73 RBI, one more than Evan Longoria.

Casey McGehee has 18 homers, one more than David Wright.

David Ortiz has seven 25 HR seasons for the Red Sox. 2nd most – tied with J. Rice – behind T. Williams (14).

Orioles considering going to a 6-man rotation to get a look at guys like Tillman and Britton.

Here comes the Panda. Pablo Sandoval in August: .349 with an .899 OPS for the SFGiants.

Sign up if you are on Twitter, you wont be disappointed. If you are you can take it up with management (which just so happens to be me).

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

From time to time I play this game to see just how keen your wits are when it comes to identifying players based solely on their numbers and accomplishments. Let’s see how long it takes you to guess who the player is this time.

* I’ve made five All-Star teams.

* I’ve never won the MVP award, but I’ve finished in the top-7 in voting on four different occasions.

* I get on base with the best of them. I own a career OBP of .404, the 49th best mark in league history, and I’ve been a top-10 finisher in the category on 10 occasions. To compare, Adam Dunn has never bettered a .400 mark (2002) despite owning a career mark of .382.

* I’m a fair power hitter as well having finished with a top-10 slugging percentage 10 times. My season best mark is .677 – a mark that led the AL in 2002. My career SLG is .556 which places me 23rd all-time. Only once has Jason Bay bettered that mark (.559 in 2005).

* Because of my ability to get on base and to drive the ball deep, I’ve always been a tremendous OPS option. Five times I’ve posted a mark above a grand, and I’m sporting a career mark of .960. Only once in his career has David Wright bettered that mark (.963 in 2007).

* I’ve gotten on base so many times that I’m one run from 1,500 in my career. I’ve also pounded the ball enough to record 1,584 RBI meaning I will soon become the 34th player in big league history with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI in a career.

* This last one may give me away. I’ve hit 570 home runs in my career, the 11th best mark in baseball history. I’m also fourth all-time in homers by a left-handed batter. Considering the questions surrounding Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, some might argue that I’m one of the top five or so home run hitters in big league history. I’ve also been very consistent with at least 30 homers in 9-straight season (1996-2004). After an injured induced dip to seven in 2004, I then went on to hit at least 34 in each of the next three seasons meaning that for 12-straight healthy seasons I never once failed to go deep 30 times.

Who am I?

I’m the Twins’ Jim Thome.

Does Thome deserve to be in the HOF given those qualifications? Here are some thoughts on the subject.

(1) As I mentioned above, no one has ever connected Thome’s name to performance enhancing drugs. He’s country hardball strong, and as such there has never been a reason to think he needed steroids to help him to power the ball into the bleachers. It would be pretty tough to keep him out of the Hall if he ends his career with nearly 600 homers.

(2) Thome is viewed by many as a DH, though that negates his work in the field entirely. In 2,333 career games Thome has appeared at first base 1,102 times, and 492 times at third base (yes he played third at the start of his career). All told, he’s been on the field using his glove more than 68 percent of the time. Clearly the designated hitter role has helped to prolong his career, but less than a third of the time he has only been a hitter and not a fielder (I gave my thoughts on whether or not the designated hitter should be considered for Cooperstown in Is There Room for a DH?).

(3) it’s not exactly scientific to merely compare numbers without context, but I’m gonna do it anyway. Let’s compare this slugging lefty to another who is already in the Hall of Fame in Reggie Jackson. Here is each players performance per 162 games.

J.Thome:.277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
Jackson: .262-32-98-89-13 with a .846 OPS

Pretty shocking how much better Thome’s numbers are isn’t it?

I mentioned McGwire earlier in this piece, so why don’t we compare him to Thome given that both hitters were very similar in their approach and talents.

J.Thome: .277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
McGwire: .263-50-122-101-1 with a .982 OPS

Pretty darn close eh? By the way, you can read more about my thoughts on McGwire in HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

So should Jim Thome get more respect than he usually does? Unequivocally the answer is yes. Should he be elected to the HOF? Based on the numbers he has produced I can’t see how one could make a valid argument that he doesn’t belong in the Hall.

The Case for Kemp

Sometimes there are people or things that just defy conventional wisdom. (1) How does Tim Lincecum throw the ball so hard when he is so small of frame? (2) How is Albert Pujols able to post virtually identical totals every year? (3) Why is figure skating such an undeniable draw despite that fact that none of us have ever even tried it? A fourth item, the reason for this piece, is the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp who doesn’t fit into a box but continues to produce regardless.

I was on record last season saying that I felt Kemp was a bit overrated in the fantasy game. Many had him pegged as a top-10 overall option, some even higher, though I was thinking more like top-25. Turns out I was completely wrong with this one, a fact that can easily be seen in his seventh overall Player Rater ranking for his 2009 efforts.

Why did I take a position counter to what others thought? There are a couple of obvious reasons (or so I thought at the time).

(1) Kemp strikes out a ton. His career K-rate is 24.8 percent, or almost exactly once every four at-bats. It’s pretty darn difficult to hit .300 when you do that. In fact, only four men in baseball posted a K-rate of at least 25 percent and still hit .300 in 2009: David Wright (26.2, .307), Justin Upton (26.0, .300), Shin-Soo Choo (25.9, .300) and Kevin Youkilis (25.5, .305). Kemp just missed out last season hitting .297 despite the fact that he actually cut his strikeout rate down to 22.9 percent.

(2) As a result of all the strikeouts his contact rate continues to languish in the dumps. In 2008 it was 75 percent, in 2009 it was 77 percent. The major league average is about 80 percent, so as you can plainly see Kemp isn’t even average in this measure.

(3) Of course, both #1 and #2 mean his BB/K mark is poor, terrible actually, at 0.30 for his career (the major league average is about 0.50). Last year he did improve to for the third straight year — all the way up to 0.37.

All of that work, which is below average, means that Kemp relies on a hit rate of rather large proportions to attain success, and that made me nervous. The major league average for BABIP is usually in the .290-.300 range. However, players set their own baselines. By that I mean that the .300 is merely an “average” with some hitters posting a .350 mark year after year (Ichiro) while others consistently come up short. Players set their own baselines, but there just aren’t many Ichiro Suzuki’s in the world, know what I mean? Therefore, when I saw Kemp with a .374 mark in Triple-A (2007), .417 as a rookie in 2007 with the Dodgers, and .363 in his first full season in 2008, I was obviously concerned. He did dip a bit last season, all the way down to .349 (wink, wink), but that mark was still 24th in baseball.

So it’s time for me to admit what others did a year earlier – the guy does what he does, and despite some rather concerning traits, Kemp is good enough to confound what some of the traditional measures say about him. He may not go about it in the way I would like to see him do it, and he might still yet have a rough patch or two because of his approach, but overall this guy is one superior ball player. There is little reason whatsoever to think he will not produce yet another 25/25, or better, type season for the Dodgers in 2010. Plus, you gotta love the guy for always telling the press that he and Rihanna are just friends despite all the pictures of him groping her all over the place (it was just reported that they moved in together as well, so I guess they can finally drop the charade). The guy not only has “game” on the field, he clearly has it off the field as well.

By Ray Flowers

Braun’s Brilliance

A year after being a bit unsure about this guy because of his lack of patience and a whole bunch of strikeouts, I’m finally sold on the superlative slugger from the Brewers. Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t a naysayer last year, but I did have my doubts about whether or not he could be a top-10 fantasy performer (I was thinking more like top-20). Turns out I was wrong. I think Ryan Braun could go 30/30 this year, he seems a fair bet to at go 30/20 as he did last season, and if he continues to show growth in his plate discipline he could rival Albert Pujols in the Triple Crown categories. Given that, I thought it might be fun to compare Pujols and Braun’s first three seasons in the league to one another, though remember that Braun was called up late in 2007 and appeared in only 117 games as a rookie while Pujols appeared in 161 games in his freshman season.

Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a .363 OBP and .574 SLG in 1,697 ABs

Pujols: .334-114-381-367-28 with a .412 OBP and .613 SLG in 1,771 ABs

OK, Braun clearly comes up short, but Pujols does arguably own the greatest three season run to open a career of any man who has ever played the game. Therefore, let’s lower the bar a bit and compare Braun’s first three season to some of the best hitters of recent memory to see how he stacks up. In order to make this comparison fair to everyone, I’ll list each players first three “full seasons” in the bigs since no one hits .324 with 34 homers in their rookie season as Braun did. This gives “the field” an advantage over Braun whose numbers come from his true rookie season and following two campaigns. Can anyone use that edge to best Braun’s barometer of success?

Miguel Cabrera: .318-92-342-319-15 with a .394 OBP and .547 SLG in 1,792 ABs

Prince Fielder: .276-112-302-277-12 with a .372 OBP and .536 SLG in 1,730 ABs

Todd Helton: .336-102-358-30-15 with a .415 OBP and .607 SLG in 1,688 ABs

Matt Holliday: .326-89-338-307-35 with a .387 OBP and .571 SLG in 1,171 ABs

Manny Ramirez: .315-90-307-278-16 with a .405 OBP, .559 SLG in 1,595 ABs

Alex Rodriguez: .322-101-331-364-90 with a .375 OBP and .562 SLG in 1,874 ABs

Mark Teixeira: .282-107-340-279-9 with a .362 SLG and .541 SLG in 1,718 ABs

Chase Utley: .310-82-310-328-40 with a .388 OBP and .543 SLG in 1,731 ABs

David Wright: .314-83-325-308-71 with a .396 OBP and .534 SLG in 1,761 ABs

———-

Ryan Braun: .308-103-317-296-49 with a 363/.574/.937 line in 1,697 ABs

Braun is the only player surveyed, other than Pujols and Teixeira, whose production is from his first three seasons in the bigs, while all others were from their first three “full seasons.”

So what does all of this mean? A couple of points stand out.

(1) Braun’s combination of batting average and home runs is nearly unmatched by any of the games current crop of stars. Only Braun, Helton and A-Rod hit at least .305 with 100 homers.

(2) Only A-Rod and Wright can match Braun’s 5×5 talents across the board.

(3) Braun is off to a start that, if not for Albert Pujols, could legitimately be called the best three season run to start a major league players career in 15 years. Sign me up for some bratwursts and Braun Milwaukee as there is little doubt in my mind that he is the top option in the outfield for fantasy leagues in 2010.

By Ray Flowers