Carlos Beltran Has Knee Surgery

Breaking news: The Mets’ Carlos Beltran reportedly underwent microfracture surgery on his knee after suffering a setback. Early estimates put him out of action for 12 weeks, possibly more. As an added bit of intrigue, he apparently underwent the surgery without permission from the Mets through a personal physician.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Third Base

Today I’m going to discuss the third base position as I continue to review my predictions for the top-10 at the position to see how they panned out (the following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season).

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright

3. Aramis Ramirez

4. Evan Longoria

5. Chippers Jones

6. Garrett Atkins

7. Chone Figgins

8. Aubrey Huff

9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Alex Gordon

A-Rod rebounded from hip surgery and missing a month of action to record yet another 30-HR, 100-RBI season. That’s 12-straight years of that type of effort to tie the all-time record previously held by Jimmie Foxx. Yeah, he really slowed down didn’t he?

Wright hit .307, two points below his career mark, got on base at a .390 clip (career .389) and stole 27 bases. Yet his season was a failure. Why? A five year low in runs (88) and RBI (72) was distressing, but his simply atrocious total of 10 homers, after 26 or more the previous four seasons, rendered his ’09 after an abysmal outing for a player who wasn’t hurt.

Ramirez injured his shoulder which limited him to a mere 82 games played. Still, in half a season of games he hit .319 with a .905 OPS as he hit 15 long balls and 65 RBI putting his production slightly ahead of the levels we have come to expect.

Longoria had only 58 RBI over his last 105 games, but with 55 in his first 51 his overall mark of 113 was the best at the position. Evan also went deep 33 times, was one of only three third sackers to score 100 runs (100 exactly), and hit a solid .281 with a .889 OPS. Not a bad second season in the league wouldn’t you say?

Jones hit at least .324 from 2006-08, but at 37 years of age expecting a repeat was asking too much (he hit just .264). Why was he ranked fifth on my list then if I already had lower expectations for his ’09 outlook? Bottom line was that the third base position just wasn’t that deep heading into last season (and still isn’t in 2010).

Atkins was abysmal. Period. You can read all about the performance in my recent Five Questions piece.

Figgins had a terrific season and it will make him a lot of money this offseason. Chone led the position with 114 runs and 42 steals, while hitting .298 with a .395 OBP. By thaw way, he was second in the AL in runs scored (Dustin Pedroia crossed the plate 115 times).

Huff failed, miserably, to repeat his tremendous 2008 effort (.304-32-108) turning out a .241-15-85 line in a season split with the Orioles and Tigers. He didn’t play a single game at third instead seeing time exclusively at first base (93 games) and DH.

Youkilis was much more productive than I thought he would be. He failed to match his ’08 numbers (.312-29-115-91), but was pretty darn close across the board (.306-27-94-99).

Gordon was injured, had hip surgery, spent time at Triple-A and all-around was a huge disappointment. He hit only .232 with a .703 OPS in 49 games, and in the offseason the Royals brought in Josh Fields to possibly challenge Gordon for starts at third in the coming campaign.

By Ray Flowers

Movement All Around

I’m still ticked off that Jim Thome was moved to the Dodgers. Not only does that kill his value for a couple of teams that I have him, the deal also came down after I set my lineups for this week meaning I’ll likely get two or three at-bats out of my UT spot this week. Great. If you want to read some actual analysis of the deal and not just me complaining about it, click on my Around the Horn piece. Make sure you read the part about the monster helmet that David Wright will be wearing now that he is back from a concussion. Good stuff – even if I’m biased cause I wrote it myself. And if you are wondering if it’s bad form to give yourself props about something you have written the answer is certainly yes, but I’m still going to do it anyway.

Good job Ray.

I mentioned it today in my Player Rater piece, but is there anyone out there that knows that Michael Young has an 18-game hitting streak? That guy is flat out money, the Ichiro of the infield if you wish – minus the steals, the cool name and the sweet gliding stroke.

Am I the only one getting whiplash from all of these rookies being called up? I remember back in the day when I didn’t care about who the 33rd guy was on the Giants. Now that it’s my job, man, this is a lot of work.

Let me see if I got this right. The Brewers ostensibly sent J.J. Hardy to the minors under the auspices of two main lines of thought. (1) Hardy was hitting only .229 with a .367 SLG so he was hitting terribly. No disputing that fact. (2) The club wanted to give flashy youngster Alcides Escobar a chance to show his wares in the majors which he has done pretty well hitting .286 over 49 at-bats. He has made three errors in 17 games, but overall he has been pretty much as advertised. However, there is a third and more insidious reason that Hardy was sent to the minors; it was to avoid paying him money or in the least to maintain control over him for another season. Turns out that by sending him down for three weeks the Brewers were able to delay his free agency until after the 2011 season. Real classy Brewers.

The Royals did the same thing to their third basemen, Alex Gordon, when they sent him to the minors ostensibly because he was struggling after fighting his way back from hip surgery to return to the field. Gordon was hitting .222 with a .643 OPS in about a month’s worth of games with the Royals, so like Hardy he wasn’t exactly tearing it up, but it appears that this decision was merely undertaken to push Gordon’s free agency back to after the 2013 season. In the Brewers case at least they had a real reason, after all they are super high on Escobar, but the Royals have no one to plug into third if Gordon isn’t there. Not just that, wasn’t Gordon supposed to be their franchise player? I’m almost willing to give the Royals the benefit of the doubt here, after all they did bring in guys like Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth who have contracts that far outpace their on-field work, but even if I do give the club a free pass, I think the way they are handling Gordon is awful. If he wasn’t healthy, wouldn’t it make more sense to give him three more weeks at Triple-A and then recall him to the majors for good versus the other way around? Overall Gordon is hitting .307 with a .985 OPS in 75 minor league at-bats, so it’s not doing him much good spending time on the farm.

Isn’t it fitting that the best lefty in baseball, Johan Santana (elbow) had surgery the same day that his teammate and arguably the biggest left-handed tease in the game, Oliver Perez (knee), also went under for a medical procedure? Both should be fine for the start of 2010, though that means something totally different for both hurlers – one will likely return to excellence, the other will just be trying to avoid hitting batters who are in the on-deck circle.

One last positive note. It likely won’t have any bearing on a single fantasy team, but it’s great news that Aaron Boone has made a miraculous recovery from open heart surgery and he has been added to the Astros roster. Good for you Aaron.

By Ray Flowers

Unsound Options

After a one day hiatus to discuss that quarterback who I shall never mention again, you know the one who has retired about 13 times over the past two years only to return to action, let’s get back to what I know best, and that is the game that is played on the diamond.

Johnny Cueto will be placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. I wonder what genius it took to figure out that he wasn’t physically “right” as his ERA has gone from 2.69 on July 1st to 4.61. That’s right, over his last nine appearances he has gone 1-6 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. Unless he suddenly morphed into a 66 year old version of Jamie Moyer, it’s pretty flipping clear he just hasn’t been right.

Zack Greinke lost his eighth game of the year on Wednesday after allowing four runs over seven innings. Greinke has been great this season with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 25 starts, but the man has only one victory in his last nine times on the hill while he has accrued five loses in that time. If you ask me, his shot at the Cy Young Award is pretty much non-existent at this point as I think he is no better than third on the list behind Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) and Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.66 ERA, 167 Ks, 1.18 WHIP). You could also make a valid argument for Justin Verlander (13-6, 3.28 ERA, 194 Ks, 1.16 WHIP) or even C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) could have moved ahead of the Royals’ hurler, so maybe Greinke is on danger of not only falling out of the top-3, but possibly the top-5.

Mets Injury Update
* David Wright (concussion) – Hopes to be cleared for action on Thursday and is eyeing a return near the end of August.

* Carlos Beltran – Running in the outfield and also took batting practice on Wednesday. Hopes to return sometime in September.

* Oliver Perez – May not make his next start as his knee is still bothering him. Maybe his sore knee threw him off balance in his last start leading to just a single walk. Hey, what else explains a measly walk for a guy who has averaged 4.31 walks per start? Maybe he should pitch hurt more often.

* Billy Wagner – Should be activated by the weekend after proving that his elbow is sound. Could be valuable down the stretch in NL-only leagues.

There are of course more Mets options I could discuss here, but I’m falling asleep typing name after name from this club so I’m gonna just leave it where it is and move on.

Jake Peavy likely won’t make that start on August 28th as the White Sox hoped – what a shock. The best case scenario is that he will return on September 2nd, or possibly in the following series against the Red Sox. This guy could turn out to be a difference maker for the Sox, but I gotta tell ya he hasn’t sold me on the idea that he will be able to contribute this season.

Willy Taveras was placed on the DL today with a strained left quadriceps muscle, and while this is bad news personally, and for those of you counting on his speed in NL-only leagues, it is likely great news for the Reds. Why do I say that? Let me count the ways. First, the man is hitting .238 with one home run, and those numbers are only acceptable if you take the hill once every five days. Second, though he has 25 steals and was on pace for a fifth straight season of 33 steals, he has seen his steal total drastically reduced from his career best total of 68 from last season disappointing all involved. Third, the man owns a .273 OBP this season. Since the league average is .334 Taveras can be said to be only 82 percent of “average” in this respect, and that is flat out awful for a man who has spent 390 of his 395 at-bats in the first or second hole in the order. I wouldn’t be worried about how Dusty Baker uses pitchers as much as I would question how the man puts together his batting order. Clearly Taveras has world class speed, but with a complete inability to get on base this season he should have been holding down court in the eighth slot all season.

By Ray Flowers

Frustration All Around

I’m upset. I just watched the umpires in the Giants/Dodgers series blow, and I’m not kidding you, the fifth clear cut call at first base, ALL of which have gone in favor of the Dodgers. Sure, I’m a Giants fan, but at the same time I’m fair and will admit when the Giants get a “break.” I’m here to tell you t that they didn’t get a one in this three game series.

How pathetic is the situation in Baltimore? The Orioles continue to run Jason Berken out there despite the fact that he has been flat out atrocious. Berken lost his start on Wednesday to drop to 2-10 on the year with seven loses in his last 10 appearances. Given that his ERA is 6.63 and his WHIP 1.69, you mean to tell me that the Orioles don’t have a better option? Pathetic.

Michael Crabtree sign the damn contract the Niners have given you already. You weren’t drafted third overall, you aren’t going to get paid like you were drafted third overall, and you had best get your name on a contract before you end up imploding your rookie season completely. Whew. I feel better now that I typed that.

Remember back when Kelvim Escobar was going to help the Angels starting rotation after battling back from shoulder woes? Well that didn’t go so well as he made just one start before having to go back on the DL. Then the club switched tactics and decided it would use Escobar out of the pen. Now the club has decided that nothing can be done to help Escobar overcome that shoulder injury, and therefore KE will likely not return to Anaheim in 2009. Too bad, because when that dude is right he is flat out filthy.

Did you catch the fact that before busting out for six hits last night that Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .199 over 151 at-bats? How is that even possible for a man with that much skill?

Injury #104 for the Mets this season. Working his way back from surgery on his hip, Carlos Delgado is now suffering from a strained right oblique muscle. This setback will likely keep him out of action for about two weeks. At this point, a return in September may only be a 75-25 bet for the slugging first sacker. What was injury #103? Well it wasn’t really an injury, it was actually an illness that has taken a hold of David Wright. Apparently he was pretty darn sick. Honestly, if the Mets didn’t have bad luck, as the saying goes, they wouldn’t have any luck at all.

Jonathan Papelbon will not be available to pitch on Wednesday after recording seven outs the past two days. Papelbon has a wonderful 2.17 ERA and 28 saves in 31 chances, but he is also working on a 4-year low in K/9 (9.79) and a 4-year low in BB/9 (3.62). I’m just saying.

The A’s Cliff Pennington, starting at shortstop now that the club has sent Orlando Cabrera to the Twins, is hitting .326 in 46 at-bats with the club. Don’t expect that to continue given that his current batting average is a mere .063 points better than his minor league mark. You want further proof? His minor league SLG is .358, merely .032 points above his current batting average. Still, he is a fine AL-only option up the middle since he is nearly certain to be in the lineup everyday for the A’s.

John Lewis, a fellow SABR member, put together a rather interesting list of “where are they now” for the Pirates. In his note he mentioned that there are three, THREE, members of the Pirates July 24th, 2008 25-man roster that are still with the club: Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Zack Duke. So in little over one year’s time, the Pirates have moved 88 percent of their 25-man roster. I have no idea if that is a record or not, but I have to believe it is. Here is a list of what happened to the other 22 players.

LF Jason Bay – traded to Boston 2008
CF Nate McLouth – traded to Atlanta 2009
RF Xavier Nady – traded to Yankees 2008
OF Jason Michaels – free agency 2008
1B Adam LaRoche – traded to Boston 2009
2B Freddy Sanchez – traded to Giants 2009
3B Jose Bautista – traded to Toronto 2008
SS Jack Wilson – traded to Seattle 2009
1B-3B Doug Mientkiewicz – free agency 2008
2B-SS Luis Rivas – free agency 2008
INF Chris Gomez – free agency 2008
C Raul Chavez – free agency 2008
P John Van Benschoten – free agency 2008
P Franquelis Osoria – free agency 2008
P Damaso Marte – traded to Yankees 2008
P John Grabow – traded to Cubs 2009
P Sean Burnett – traded to Washington 2009
P Ian Snell – traded to Seattle 2009
P T.J. Beam – waivers to Toronto 2009
P Denny Bautista – to Triple-A Indianapolis
P Yoslan Herrera – to Double-A Altoona
P Tyler Yates – on Disabled List

By Ray Flowers

Monday Mailbag Mania

We all have questions. Some relate to what to wear or what to do with that snooty boss, while others are directed toward what type of libation they will be sipping on when the day ends? Alas, this is a baseball blog, so the questions we will answer here pertain to the diamond.

I am in a keeper league where I can keep up to 5 players.

Our league has a position for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, CF and UTL. Our scoring system includes- hits, Runs, HR, RBI, K, SB and fielding percentages. Can you please let me know who you would keep from the list below?

Geovany Soto, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton
Bench- Carlos Beltran and Ryan Doumit
* I have great SP’s but I do not ever keep pitchers.

I traded throughout the year to get David Wright, Sizemore and Hamilton. My original thought is to keep Ramirez, Wright, Sizemore, Morneau and Hamilton. I like to keep younger players since it is a keeper league but I hate to lose Holliday.
– Bryan

What a club. That is just about the most awesome compilation of talent any league has either seen. Either (a) your pitching is atrocious, (b) you made some very astute deals, or (c) there are only six teams in your league. Here are my thoughts on who I would keep, in reverse order.

5 – Justin Morneau
How many fantasy gamers would complain about a guy who owns a career .285 mark and has produced at least 84 runs and 111 RBI in 4-straight years? If he keeps up his current pace he will make it 4-straight years.

4 – Grady Sizemore
It was either Grady or Carlos Beltran. If both were healthy they would both be up for consideration, 20/20 seasons just aren’t that easy to find. Still, with the breakdown of players in your lineup per position (LF, CF, RF), I can’t suggest keeping both since they both play CF. With Morneau as the UT there is only room for one of the CF’s on your club. Sizemore does strike out a ton, but given that he is younger he is the choice here.

3 – Matt Holliday
Hitting .636 as a Cardinal and .380 since July first, Holliday has his overall numbers up to .297-11-57-54-13 this season. What that means is that despite an abysmal start that he has a shot of a 20/20 season with a .300 batting average. Also, if he signs long-term with the Cards, hitting next to Pujols for the next five or whatever years, they have a word for that and it’s Yahtzee! Holliday may not be a 35-140 guy, but I could easily see a .300-30-100-100-15 season next year in St. Louis, can’t you? Not may left fielders in baseball can rival that.

2 – David Wright
A completely up and down season. Some will see the paltry six home runs, I see the 21 steals. Some will see the .218 July average, I see the .318 overall mark. The bottom line is that the home run dip is an anomaly, no way that a guy who owns a HR/F rate of 14 percent in his career can reasonably be expected to continue along his current 6.1 percent rate.

1 – Hanley Ramirez
The second most consistent player in the game? He won’t score 115 runs for the fourth straight season, and he won’t steal 30 bases for a fourth straight year either, but when you are hitting .348, are on pace for a 20/20 effort and play shortstop, your still a flat out stud.

David Price and Aaron Harang are killing me. Jonathan Sanchez is available. So are Joe Blanton and John Lannan. Drop either/both, and if so, who should I pick up?
– Jim

David Price: 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, Price has been a disaster. He does have a 9.17 K/9 mark, but with a 5.60 BB/9 mark he just hasn’t been able to have success or go deep into games.

Aaron Harang: Over his last six starts Harang is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA. Moreover, he has lost his last seven decisions to drop his overall mark to 5-11. His 7.80 K/9 mark is strong, as is his 3.67 K/BB mark, but too many homers (1.35 per nine) and an inability to get hitters out (.298 BAA) have been hugely detrimental to his overall performance.

Jonathan Sanchez: Tossed a no-hitter and was added in ever league he was available. However, he hasn’t been remotely solid since with a 6.55 ERA and three homers allowed in his last two starts. Overall he continues to be plagued by an inordinate amount of walks (5.12 per nine) which negates his strikeouts (9.23 K/9) and leads to poor overall performance (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).

Joe Blanton: Though he is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA on the year, Blanton has won his last three decisions and has allowed just four runs in those four outings (1.21 ERA). Overall, his K/9 rate is way up at 7.76, leading to a strong 3.00 K/BB mark.

John Lannan: 5-2 in his last seven decisions, only once in his last 11 starts has Lannan allowed more than three earned runs. That’s an amazingly consistent run of production is it not? The guy doesn’t strike anyone out (3.65 K/9), and therefore his K/BB is awful (1.34), but that sinker of his just keeps on diving leading to a 1.70 G/F rate which has led to all his success.

If you aren’t in a keeper league, Price just doesn’t hold much value right now. As for Harang, too many loses in a row have thrown his value into a tailspin, and Blanton owns the same skill set right now while being on a hot streak. I would drop both pitchers and replace them with Blanton and Lannan, and honestly, I can’t believe I just typed that sentence.

By Ray Flowers