Player Profile: Cody Ross

Cody Ross had a solid season for the Red Sox as he went deep 22 times while knocking in 81 runs. Some folks around Boston seem to think that Ross is the second coming of Jim Rice. I’m here to tell you he’s not the second coming of Dwight Evans, not even close. What is Ross? He’s a solid 5th outfielder in mixed leagues in fantasy baseball, nothing more, no matter what anyone tells you. Let’s investigate.

NOTE: The D’backs signed Ross to a 3-year, $26 million deal. That’s a bit much for my liking, not crazy high but a bit much. Moreover, his signing overloads the D’backs with outfielders so it seems likely that Jason Kubel or Justin Upton could be dealt to open up playing time for Ross, Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and either Kubel/Upton. I don’t know what the D’backs are doing. See my Player Profile of Justin Upton.

Ross had a great season if you ask Red Sox fans. My reply to that is that he had a great season relative to the abysmal effort of the Red Sox last season. In the grander scheme of things, “great season” can only be applied to Ross if you mean it in the sense of the return on your draft day investment (there were tons of mixed leagues where he wasn’t drafted, and in that situation 21 homers and 81 RBIs is a great season). Some perspective from your favorite downer (that’s me by the way).

After batting .282 in his first 49 games Ross batted .237 over his last 81 games leading to a .267 average on the year. What part of that looks good to you? It should also be noted that the AL batting average last season was .256 and that outfielders hit .265 (Ross is a .262 career hitter). He’s barely treading water here.

More of the same… for the fourth straight season Ross had an OBP in the .320′s, hardly a shock given his career .324 mark. Last season the AL average was .320 making Ross blah as blah gets. Ross also posted a 0.33 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the league average and virtually identical to his career 0.34 mark. It deserves to be noted as well that his 24.4 K-rate was a career worst for a season of at least 150 at-bats.

Ross finished the year with 22 homers, the third time he has reached 20 homers and two off his career best of 24. However, he hit only nine homers over his final 74 games and just six over his last 56 contests. What you see is what you get here. Ross’ 14.9 percent HR/F ratio was actually a five years high, but it still didn’t lead to a big time homer mark cause he just isn’t that strong a hitter.

His RBI total of 81 was the second best of his career (he had 90 in 2009). At the same time that number is far from impressive for a guy who played for the Red Sox and had a change to play half his games at Fenway.

His run scored mark of 70 was the third time in four years he reached that level. Still, it’s not a very impressive number for a mixed league outfielder, is it?

He stole two bases while being caught three times. Over the last three seasons he’s stolen 16 bases. Yippee.

So here is what I see. Tell me there I’m wrong.

For his career Ross has hit .262. For his career the league average is .264.
For his career Ross has a .324 OBP. The league average is .334.
For his carer Ross has a .460 SLG. The league average is .420.
For his career Ross has a .783 OPS. The league average is .753.

Per 150 games played Ross has produced a fantasy line of .262-21-76-67-5. None of that stands out in any way. I would also be remiss if I didn’t note that in a career that began back in 2003 that Ross has played 150 games only twice. Part of the reason for that is that he undershoots his already boring career numbers when he faces right-handed pitching: .253/.312/.415. I’m sorry D’backs fans, but this guys isn’t anything special. The only way that Ross is truly worthy of paying attention to in a mixed league he must convince his employers to give him 500 at-bats. Even with 500 at-bats your still looking at a guy who is barely average across the board. You can do better when it comes to late round gambles in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Justin Upton

I just finished eating a bologna sandwich. Probably not the best thing I could have put in my mouth but my pork shoulder is currently doing it’s thing in my oven so it wasn’t quite ready to consume. The reason I bring that up is that we can all agree that a hunk of pork shoulder is a better meal than a slab of bologna on a couple of pieces of white bread. Somehow though the Diamondbacks front office has convinced itself that Justin Upton is a piece of bologna and not something that should be savored. From where I sit this position seems nonsensical for a myriad of obvious reasons.

(1) Upton is just 25 years old. There is a very real chance that he hasn’t reached his peak as a ballplayer yet.

(2) No one seems to notice that even in a terribly disappointing season that he was three homers and two steals from going 20/20. There is that other little fact that he scored 107 times which tied him with Andrew McCutchen for fourth best total in baseball. If that’s a “down” season there are about 725 other big league players who would shave five years off their life to be a “down” performer year after year.

(3) Upton has a season in which he hit .300. Upton has a season in which he hit 31 homers. Upton has a season of 88 RBIs. Upton has a season in which he has scored 107 runs. Upton has a season that he stole 21 bases. That’s a fine piece on pancetta and not a hunk of bologna.

(4) The 25 year old Upton is signed for the next three years for roughly $500,000 less than $39 million that Shane Victorino just upped for three years with the Red Sox (for more on Victorino see his Player Profile). Victorino is 32 years old, has never hit 31 homers, never scored 107 runs and has never driven in 88 runs. Not even close.

For some reason the D’backs have been alternating between – we have to move Upton to we will listen to offers for Upton to we will not be trading Upton. It’s been that way for more than a year now. I just don’t get it. Is Upton a HOF talent? I would suggest that he is. Has he consistently performed like a HOF talent? The answer is obviously no. That’s frustrating, I get it, but the guy is just 25 years old. At 25 years of age Ryan Howard had 107 games of big league experience. Upton has appeared in 108 or more games for five years now. Why on earth would the Diamondbacks consider giving up on Upton at his age? Are they really ready to say that even if he doesn’t improve one bit, if his 162 game average of .278-28-108-97-18 is maintained for the next three years, that he isn’t worth the $38+ million he is to be paid? I’m telling you there are about 29 other teams that would gladly pay him that, especially considering that there is a very reasonable chance, as I’ve already stated, that Upton could improve upon the numbers he has posted to this point of his career.

This is all I can figure. One of the following issues must be going on with Upton behind the scenes.

He parties with hookers and blow.
He gambles incessantly.
He has an odd predilection or two that might be considered borderline illegal.
He’s a disaster in the club house.

The issue with all of that is that NONE OF IT appears to be true. Not a single one of those things is known to be true with Upton, so what gives Diamondbacks? None of us outside of your organization get it – at all.

Maybe the D’backs are privately saying one or more of the following things.

(1) Upton has failed to live up to expectations. We know that he is just 25 years old but he should have established himself as a superstar by now and he hasn’t.

(2) Upton has failed to reach 20 homers or 70 RBIs in two of the past three years. How can we trust this guy to be the player we build our franchise around being that we aren’t exactly a huge market club and can’t afford to pay a guy roughly $13 million a year if he is going to hit like Jason Kubel.

(3) For all his talents, what kind of improvement is he going to show if he keeps striking out so much? Upton has whiffed at least 120 times in each of his five full seasons after all.

My rebuttal?

You already know my thoughts about his age.

Yes he has failed to be a big time run producer in two of the past three years, that is certainly a fair critique. However, in 2009 and 2011 he averaged 29 homers, 87 RBIs and 95 runs scored. I also noted his elite line over the past four years (per 162 games), but here it is again: .278-28-108-97-18.

Yes Upton strikes out too much (just like his brother B.J. Upton who you can read about in this Player Profile). On the flipside his K-rate has been well below his 23 percent career rate the past two years (18.7 and 19.3 percent). There is also the fact that for three years running Justin has shown a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (0.40, 0.42, 0.47 and 0.52). I would also point out that while his OBP hasn’t been great the past five years that the number has always been between .353 and .369 as he has consistently gotten on base at a solid level.

I have no idea why the D’backs keep trying to trade this guy. My only concern with Upton in the fantasy game is directly tied to all of this nonsense. How long will he be able to keep his cool and go out there an perform day after day when it is clear to him, I mean like someone walking in on their spouse with another person in bed, that he’s no longer wanted. Will that mental strain wear him down and ultimately erode his production? I’d still draft Upton as my #1 outfielder and feel very good about it, but it would be great of the Diamondbacks made up their mind, once and for all, what their plan is with Justin Upton.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wade Miley

Happy Thanksgiving.

Bryce Harper won the NL Rookie of the Year Award as pretty much everyone predicted he would, but his winning margin was just seven points over Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks. So let’s look into the player that was deemed the best rookie pitcher in the Senior Circuit.

You know me, I usually don’t put much stock into win-loss records because there is so much more that plays into that result than a hurlers performance, but that doesn’t mean I’m unimpressed by a rookie who wins 16 games against 11 loses. Miley didn’t exactly kill it with 18 quality starts in 29 starts, but his 62 percent quality start mark was the same as Yu Darvish and C.J. Wilson. Miley also tossed 194.2 innings meaning he was just one start from 200 innings, and in today’s game that’s an impressive mark for a rookie hurler.

One of the reasons for his success was that he kept the runs under control as evidenced by his solid 3.33 ERA. I’m going to suggest that you shouldn’t expect a repeat of that number in 2013. I’m not here to say you should expect it to go up by a full run or anything, but a rise of half a run is possible, maybe probable, given his overall skill set. We’ll get into that as we go along, but consider these two data points. (1) His xFIP for 2012 was 3.75. (2) His SIERA was 3.84. Those two measures suggest that his ERA should have been a half run higher than it was last year, thereby adding some support to my contention that his ERA will likely go up in 2013.

Miley struck out 6.66 batters per nine innings. Before you go searching for your cross to ward off the devil, let’s just comment on the number itself. It’s not a great number, at least not a dominating one. Remember, strikeouts are more abundant than ever before in this great game of ours. The result is that the big league average K-rate last season was 7.56 meaning that Miley was a basically a batter below league average in this measure. Given how fond I am of the strikeout, that concerns me when we get around to breaking down Miley’s fantasy value. The number also isn’t very likely to go up much as his career minor league number was 6.99.

Miley was able to combat this less than advantageous K-rate very well with a special 1.71 walk per nine mark. That’s an amazing amount of control for any hurler, let alone a rookie. The result was a 3.89 K/BB ratio, another excellent mark that was 10th best in baseball among pitchers who tossed 162 innings. Putting a downer on the party, I seem to do that a lot don’t I?, is the fact that during his minor league career Miley’s K/BB ratio was 2.23. It’s not reasonable to expect a guy who is basically average in that category for four years to all of a sudden become elite overnight. Hence, the safe money is on that number receding in the 2013 in the form of additional walks (another reason to worry about his ERA staying so low).

Since I’m downing Miley here, let me continue that theme in an unlikely place. Miley was great with RISP last season holding batters to a .222 average and .552 OPSA. Those are elite numbers. Does he have an innate ability to “bear down” and get batters out when the pressure is at it’s highest? Possibly, but it’s still tough to say that Miley will be able to repeat that success in 2013 (with the bases empty last year batters hit .260 with a .663 OPSA).

Miley was also fortunate in the BABIP column. His .293 mark is right on the league average so there is nothing off there, but it is a low number for a guy who surrendered a 23 percent line drive rate. I would also posit that his 6.9 HR/F ratio is a bit low. The 8.2 mark he owns for his career seems like a more likely resting place for that number to be in 2013.

So Miley is a must avoid in 2013 then? I wouldn’t go that far. What I would say is the following. Wins and loses are always random. Miley could pitch exactly the same in 2013 and his record could be 12 and 14. It’s just how that goes. Second, the preponderance of the evidence suggests that his ERA will go up in 2013. Ditto for his WHIP considering he walked fewer batters in ’12 than he had at any point in his pro career. Given that his strikeout rate isn’t anything to look at, Miley is unlikely to fully repeat his value in the coming campaign. All of that means that Miley is a solid 4/5 starter type in mixed leagues so make sure you don’t be seduced by the effectiveness he had as a rookie and draft him earlier than that.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers