Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.6

I’ve been sick. So sick that I was in the hospital for three days. I’m feeling better now, but apparently my brain is still a bit scrambled. Just check out some of the crazy bids I placed this week in the free agent pool.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): As you know, I’ve been sick for a week now, so sick I was in the hopsital for three days. I’m blaming the residual there for my lack of bid on Dee Gordon. I need a middle infielder badly in this league so I should have been more aggressive with the speed demon from LA. Instead I went small money and added Ruben Tejada ($1) and Ryan Raburn ($1). Tejada is merely a stop gap at SS, Derek Jeter missing half the season is killing me. As for Raburn, why not take a chance? He replaced Eric Sogard in my lineup (I told you I was hurting up the middle). Hopefully Raburn can remain in the daily lineup which would be a nice boost for me. I let go Mike Leake and Billy Hamilton to make the moves. Given my injury issues, I couldn’t wait on Hamilton any longer.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon $30), Hector Santiago ($5), Marcell Ozuna ($3)

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Chris Nelson came over to the AL to join the Yankees, and now he is part of my club for $7. But Ray, why big do high? Well, here’s why. In the last week Chris Young and Kevin Youkilis were both sent to the DL with injuries. I needed at-bats. I went for it.
Notable bids: J.B. Shuck ($5), Sean Doolittle ($5), Freddy Garcias ($3), Jeff Baker ($3), Adam Rosales ($2)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Here are the players I have on the DL in this league – Matt Adam, Coco Crisp, Justin Maxwell, Hanley Ramirez (he was back for half a week), Sergio Santos, Kevin Youkilis and Chris Young. Think my team is in trouble, maybe? I added Ryan Raburn ($89) to help out up the middle and then Justin Grimm on the hill ($9).
Notable bids: Marcell Ozuna ($147 out of $1,000), Kevin Slowey ($59), Trevor Plouffe ($56), Oswaldo Arcia ($25), Jake Westbrook ($22), Shaun Marcum ($19)

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Jeremy Guthrie keeps on getting it done. I sent Chris Nelson packing to add Guthrie ($2). I also let Dayan Viciedo go for Ryan Ruburn ($3). This is the league, if you will remember, that HanRam hosed me. I then spent big on Neil Walker when he was dropped, but of course he too is now on the DL. Raburn, and his second base eligibility, is a nice add for me.
Notable bids: Nolan Arenado ($31), Vernon Wells ($17), Yuniesky Betancourt ($4).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. I had to drop Kevin Youkilis. Just too many injured players on this club to hold on. I also let Kendrys Morales go. Why you ask? Because I made two trades. Trade #1 saw me give up Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Kenley Jansen, a big haul, but in return I received Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, Andre Ethier and Welington Castillo. I also added, in deal #2, Chris Sale and Corey Hart for Tony Cingrani. Granted it sure seems like I worked over the other fella, I added Lee/Cain/Sale in the course of four days, and I got Hart to replace Youkilis as a boost at first base when he is eligible.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): I added the guy I seemingly added in every league, Ryan Raburn ($46). I don’t think he’s going to star this year, but I’m just plugging holes like the boy who stuck his thumb in the dike (I dropped David Robertson). I moved on from Jarrod Saltalamacchia at catcher and added Russell Martin for $17. I also released Joaquin Benoit who was the Tigers closer for about 10 days before he was replaced with Jose Valverde. Chris Tillman ($13) is now a proud member of my rotation.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon ($182), A.J. Griffin ($86), Marcell Ozuna ($75), Yonder Alonso ($64), Seth Smith ($23)

FANBALL (13 team mixed): Anthony Rendon has been demoted, and we may not see him again for a while (barring injury). I let Mr. Rendon go in favor of James Loney. I know that’s a bit nuts, adding Loney, but did you realize he is hitting .398 this season? Seriously, look it up. I also placed Kevin Youkilis on the DL and added Jordan Pacheco to help ou at the third base spot. Woof is right.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon ($40 out of $100), Juan Pierre ($11), Carlos Martinez ($9), Justin Grimm ($8).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Around the Horn: August 11, 2011

(1) Alex Rodriguez to start minor league work Friday – return next week likely.

(2) Dee Gordon to DL – in comes Jamey Carrol.

(3) Rafael Furcal not exactly tearing it up.

(4) Waiver-wire adds, pitchers: R.A. Dickey, Mike Leake, John Lannan.

(5) Waiver-wire adds, hitters: Will Venable, Jose Constanza, Mike Carp, Juan Rivera, Rick Ankiel.

(6) Dan Uggla up to 31 games with hitting streak.

By Ray Flowers