Mailbag: September6, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Three keepers between Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Zack Greinke, Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Mike Morse?
– @SammyLlenas

Keeper questions are always tough. Are there dollar figures attached? Are there contract years attached to the players? What positions does your league start? Five outfielder or three? Corner and Middle infielders? How many teams in your league? In lieu of that information, I’ll just dive right in and give my thoughts.

Ramirez is dealing with a minor back issue, but it hasn’t precluded him from doing what he always does, and that is performing like a top-10 third baseman. After a slow start to the year he’s predictably killed it of late. Through 126 games this season he’s hitting .295 with 21 homers, 89 RBIs and 43 doubles, an NL leading total. There’s also this. In each of the the last nine seasons in which he has appeared in 123 games Aramis has hit at least 21 homers with 85 RBIs. He is 34, and his fly ball rate has declined the past two years, so 30 homers isn’t likely to happen anymore, but the rest of his game is still nails.

Andrus has hit .298 this year, the best of his four year career. His OBP is .361, the best of his young career. His SLG is .391, the best of his young career. That’s all good stuff. His steal total is down a bit with 20, after 3-straight years of 30 steals, so that’s a concern in the fantasy world. He’s also scored 76 times putting him on pace to pretty much inch up to his 92 runs scored average the past two years. Given his age, the offense he plays in, and the improvements in his game at the plate, and the position he plays, he’s a very attractive keeper option.

Greinke has improved his work of late, after a rough start to his return to the AL. I spoke about the Angels’ hurler in my Around the Horn video.

Rizzo started out on fire when called up by the Cubs, but he’s predictably regressed. Oh he’s still hitting a solid .290 with 11 homers in 241 at-bats, an excellent turnaround after last years unmitigated disaster with the Padres (.141 with one homer in 128 at-bats). Rizzo has hit .238 with 12 homers in 369 career at-bats, terrible numbers for a corner infield option in mixed leagues. Even if we just forget about last season with the Padres, Rizzo’s current pace, spread out over 550 at-bats, would lead to a season of .290-25-73-68, and those just aren’t very impressive numbers for a mixed league first baseball. There’s also the fact that he’s been a below average fly ball hitter in his young career, and that his current line drive rate of 26 percent just isn’t sustainable.

Ortiz has played just nine games at first base the past two years. As a designated hitter only option in the fantasy game, Ortiz’ value is somewhat limited. It won’t matter if he’s hitting .318 with a 1.026 OPS like he has this year. Unfortunately for Ortiz, the last time that he posted an OPS over 1.000 was 2007. There’s also the matter of him hitting .257/.356/.498 from 2008-10. Is it really safe to assume that a 37 year old, coming off a significant Achilles injury, is going to continue to hit as well as he did this season? I’ll answer that question for you. No it is not. I’m not saying that Ortiz couldn’t pop 30 homers and knock in 100 runs next year, that’s possible given his resurgence, but he’s not likely to hit .300, he isn’t going to post a .415 OBP (his current mark), and he’s not going to maintain that .611 SLG. Just not gonna happen.

Morse hit .303 with 31 homers and 95 RBIs last season, his first full season in the big leagues. Already 30 years old, he’s a bit older than you likely thought. He’s battled successfully through injuries this season hitting .287 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs through 82 games, but that effort is well off his pace from last season (is he were to maintain his pace over the 522 at-bats he had last season he would hit .287 with 19 homers and 79 RBIs). I’m also tremendously concerned by the fact that he’s just been unable to learn how to take a pitch. After a mere 36 walks last year he’s become even less patient this year with just 13 walks. Thirteen. It’s pretty amazing he’s hit nearly .300 since the start of last season given that fact.

Ortiz is too old to keep, and with the utility only eligibility, I’ll pass. Greinke is a top level arm, but in a setup where you are only keeping three players I see little need to hold a pitcher who isn’t a top-10 option. Who is the last guy I would let go? For me, it’s Morse or Rizzo (I’m holding Aramis and Andrus). Rizzo may or may not be more productive than Morse next season, but he is seven years younger and does have a higher ceiling. Given that fact I’d lean Rizzo, though at the same time it’s not the easiest call I’ve ever made given that I have no faith that Rizzo will be a top-50 fantasy player in 2013.

Who do you like rest of the way, Ryan Ludwick, Mark Reynolds, or Delmon Young?
– @LorenzKong2

Ludwick has hit .276 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs in just 373 at-bats this season. He’s also been a star in the second half hitting .321 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs an a 1.016 OPS in 48 games. While all of that sounds like Ludwick should be the must hold here, what about these two salient points. (1) Ludwick last hit a homer on August 18th meaning he’s gone 14 games without a homer. He’s also produced just three RBIs in that time. He’s not exactly trending up. (2) Ludwick hit .237 with 13 homers last year, and .251 with 17 homers in 2010. Not exactly a solid set of efforts. In fact, since a career best season in 2008, Ludwick regressed each of the past three seasons before returning to prominence this year.

Reynolds has been a massive disappointment. Still, some notes. (1) His .232 batting average is only five points off his career rate. (2) His .350 OBP would be a career best. (3) His .797 OPS is only .016 points off his career pace. (4) His 0.47 BB/K mark would be a career best. Ditto his 30.3 percent K-rate. (5) His 22.2 percent line drive rate would be a career best. He’s failed to reach even 17.5 percent the past three years. So why the struggles this year? His power stroke vanished for a long while. The good news is that it’s back. With a vengeance. In his last six games he’s gone deep six times, has driven in 13 runs, and scored eight times. Going back further, over his last 28 games, Reynolds is hitting .304 with a 1.113 OPS, 20 runs scored, 23 RBIs and 10 homers. Killing it (the folks over at Fleaflicker are starting to take notice).

Young doesn’t have near the power of the other two options, but he is a very stable option at the dish, something the other two men can’t exactly claim to be. He’s also surging over his last 30 games. Young is hitting .321 with six bombs and 20 RBIs for the Tigers. The power isn’t likely to last, his total of 17 homers is already the second best mark of his six year career (he’s averaged 14 homers a season the last five years). He is a .286 career hitter, so that .277 batting average could come up a tad without anyone raising an eyebrow.

Young is hot, and is the best option in batting average. Ludwick has had a nice bounce back season, a terrific one in fact, but he has slumped. Reynolds is the hottest hitter at the moment, and the one likely to make the biggest dent the rest of the way. A .300 batting average from Delmon over 100 at-bats isn’t going to do much of anything for a team that has racked up thousands upon thousands of at-bats. Reynolds could help in the homer, RBI and runs scored enough to help a team gain a point here or there in the standings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Tout Wars & The Big Apple

New York. The Big Apple. The center of the universe. Instead of orbiting around New York City from my home in California, I’m off to the middle of it all this weekend. Am I on a mystic quest to save a beautiful maiden or to fight the evil forces that are oppressing humanity? Of course not. I’m going to participate in one of the two biggest fantasy baseball leagues in the world – Tout Wars (the other being LABR which I was also fortunate enough to be invited to). Some thoughts on the upcoming weekend.

Tout Wars has three events: NL-only, AL-only and Mixed. I’ve been invited to participate in the 15 team mixed league (for a list of the of participants click on Tout Wars Mixed League). The 15 team auction is pretty “standard”: 5×5 scoring, 14 hitters, nine pitchers, $260 to fill out the starting lineup. One difference is that the games played limit isn’t the normal 20, it’s been dropped to 15 games this season. That opens up a few guys of note to new positional acceptance: Aubrey Huff (16 games in the outfield), Howie Kendrick (17 games at first base) and Michael Cuddyer (17 games at second base). Unfortunately, Michael Young appeared in just 14 games at second base last season or he’d be able to add that to his first and third base eligibility. This league also says that players positional eligibility, besides being lowered to the 15 game threshold from last season, is only five appearances at a position in season in ordered to be deemed eligible. That means a guy like Miguel Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez will likely be eligible to play third base by the second week of the season. As I always say, you have to know your league rules top take the best advantage of your situation.

Only in New York can you get a hotel room for $220 a night and people are saying that it was a huge bargain. Maybe I’ll be able to get beer and sandwich for lunch for $25. A guy can dream.

I keep hearing people say that third base is really thin. I can’t say I agree. Did you catch my piece titled Third Base, A Wasteland?

After doing a 13 team NL-only league in LABR, doing a 15 team mixed league sounds like a walk in the park. I still like the balanced approach versus Stars and Scrubs, but I’ll be a bit more aggressive this time around than I was in LABR.

Time is starting to run short, the season is quickly approaching, but the BaseballGuys’ Draft Guide could still help you out If you’re interested in bringing home a championship in 2012.

Trying to plan my arrival from the airport to the hotel, and then the hotel to the event. I think I have a better chance of that plan running off without a hitch than I do of drafting the best team in the history of fantasy baseball, but just barely.

Help me out here. I’m looking at ADP numbers over at MockDraftCentral an I just can’t understand why in the world, in a non-keeper league, that Mike Trout is being taken ahead of guys like Brennan Boesch, Delmon Young and Dexter Fowler. Maybe I missed the memo, but what’s going on here? Trout has been slowed all spring by the flu – reports say he lost 10 lbs to the malady – and the expectation is that he will open the year at Triple-A because of the glut of players the Angels have on their big league roster. Given the current setup, an of course it’s subject to change through a trade or injury, it looks like Trout will be lucky to get 450 at-bats this season with the Angels. I know the kid is one of the five best prospects in baseball and his future is luminous, but starting the year in the minors after posting a .220/.281/.390 line in 123 at-bats as a rookie with the big league club is enough to cause him to be taken ahead of Boesch, Young and Fowler? I must be out of my mind, but that makes no sense to me at all.

Which Ray’s Pizza should I visit to get a slice? Be forewarned, I’m a big fan of Chicago style deep dish. I’m off to New York. I’ll let you know how it went next week. Wish me luck.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Delmon Young

In 2010 Delmon Young was a star. Not only did he finish one hit from a .300 season, he also bashed a career best 21 homers and socked 46 doubles. Young also knocked in 112 runs, the 8th highest total in baseball, more than Robinson Cano (109), Mark Teixeira (108), Ryan Howard (108), Evan Longoria (104), Ryan Braun (103), Matt Holliday (103) etc. So how is it that Young is currently going off the board as the 65th outfielder taken with an ADP of 233 overall according to MockDraftCentral?

The most obvious answer as to why Young is being drafted after guys like Lorenzo Cain, Seth Smith and Lucas Duda is that Young failed to follow up his breakout 2010 effort last season. Young slumped to a career worst .268, hit only 12 homers, scored just 54 runs and nearly saw his RBI total cut in half as he produced just 64. As I talk/write about all the time, people have really short attention spans at times. However, one would hope that if a formerly impressive performer struggled but turns things on toward the end of the year, that people would remember that. Apparently that is not the case with Young. After joining the Tigers Young, who had four homers and 32 RBI in 84 games with the Twins, went on to blast eight homers with 32 RBI in 40 games with the Tigers. Delmon isn’t going to hit 32 homers with 128 RBI this season, but that hot finish should have spurred some interest in Young, but alas, it really hasn’t.

One of the biggest issues with Young has always been expectations. I say that because Young has never become the superstar that people expected he would be when he was taken first overall in the 2003 draft. Go back and look at prospect reports and you will see that Young was ranked as the number one prospect in baseball for multiple seasons. He’s only had one effort in five full seasons that is worthy of that designation though, an as a result I would bet you that people are burying Young as a “failure” instead of realizing that he is a pretty solid performer – once expectations are thrown out the window.

What Young isn’t is a power hitter. He never will be. It’s possible he might hit 25 homers one day, but 30 homers is likely a pipe dream, hardly a surprise given that he has averaged 14 homers a season the last five years. The reason for the lack of long ball power is that Young has never learned how to lift the ball. The major league average fly ball rate is about 37 percent. For his career Young’s fly ball rate is 33.6 percent. If he isn’t hitting a lot of fly balls then he’s going to need a big HR/F ratio to give him homers (like Ryan Howard). Unfortunately, Young is the owner of a 9.2 percent HR/F rate, right on the major league average. He’s never going to be a big time power bat.

Young also will never lead his team in thefts. He does have two seasons with double-digit thefts with a career-high of 14 back in 2008, but over the last three seasons he’s stolen a total of eight bases while being caught nine times. That’s just pathetic.

However, Young is a strong hitter in terms of his ability to produce hits. Young owns a career batting average of .288 and prior to last season he had never hit below .284 in a season. Why the slump last year then? Though he had an 18.3 percent line drive rate in 2011, one tenth above his career rate of 18.2 percent, his BABIP was a career worst .320 (some .026 points below his career average). A few more of those batted balls should fall for hits in 2012, and with those hits, his batting average will return.

As stated, Young has his limits. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and 2010 might go down as the best RBI campaign of his career. He’s also never learned how to take a pitch, his career BB/K mark is hideous at 0.24, so he will likely have plenty of dry spells throughout the year (being such a free swinger might limit him to being a .285 hitter versus a guy who could hit .315 if he just showed some patience). Regardless of the holes in his game, Young would appear to be a fantastic bargain at his current ADP level. If he’s your 5th outfielder in a mixed league your team will likely be in pretty good shape for the coming season.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 16, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I get questions every day with people asking me to give my sage advice. Here are my answers to some of those queries.

I’m losing ground in saves. I have Brett Lawrie and Martin Prado for my last Util. spot. Would you trade either for Kevin Gregg?
– @we3kings00

One word – no.

Brett Lawrie is killing it. The uber prospect has hit .343 with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.121 OPS. Given the hype that he entered the league with after similarly crushing Triple-A pitchers (.353-18-61-64-13 in 69 games), his value has to be sky-high right now. He won’t keep up the average, that .375 BABIP is pretty darn high, and he’s hitting too many fly balls (50 percent) while converting to large a percentage of them for homers (23.1 percent). Still, this amazing start hints at the talent that Lawrie does possess and explains why everyone was falling all over themselves look to add him to their squad this year.

Martin Prado qualifies at third base in outfield in all leagues, and though he hasn’t played second this season, he appeared in 98 games there last year so he should be good to go there as well. As we get deeper into the season injuries are always an issue, as is potential playing time loss for some veterans to youngsters. That gives a guy like Prado, who qualifies at three spots, even more value because he can fill in all over the field. A career .300 hitter, Prado is at .274. I would expect that number to rise a bit. The reason is three fold. First, his BB.K rate of 0.70 is better than his career 0.58 rate thanks to a career low K-rate. Second, though his GB/FB ratio is 1.48, right on his 1.38 career mark, he’s managed a line drive rate of 14.7 percent. A career 19.3 producer in that category, he’s posted at least an 18.9 percent mark the last four years. Third, his BABIP is just .278. Now that isn’t surprising given his line drive rate, but again it is out of the norm for a guy who owns a .322 mark in his career. Like I said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 from here on out because those numbers will eventually normalize (hopefully it will happen before the season ends).

Let’s break down the save. A 30 save performer averages five saves a month (the season is six months long). Therefore, it should be relatively easy to determine your chances of moving up, or moving down by using that as a baseline. Gregg has 17 saves likely meaning he will fall short of that 30 level. Not just that, he might be the worst full time closer in the American League. That’s not hyperbole either. Amongst AL hurlers with at least 15 saves he is last in WHIP (1.57) and second to the bottom in ERA at 4.11 (Matt Capps is last at 4.38). Gregg also leads the group with 30 walks leading to a simply putrid K/BB ratio of 1.30. That’s just pathetic. He’s also pitching poorly of late with a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.22 K/BB ratio over his last 13 outings. I want nothing to do with him.

If you’re dealing either of your two hitters you should be aiming much higher than the bespectacled one from Baltimore.

Jason Kipnis, Mike Carp, or Delmon Young for power ROTW?
– @KenCaeti

Kipnis has certainly started off his career with the proverbial bang. He’s gone deep six times in 68 at-bats, a pace that would net him 44 homers over 500 at-bats. Considering that he hit all of 32 homers over his first 1,050 professional at-bats… do I need to even finish that sentence? It’s early so it’s tough to draw any conclusions, but Kipnis is going to have to cut his 29 percent K-rate quickly or that average (.279) could head south. With little hope of being a base stealing asset, Kipnis is likely to settle in as a moderate mixed play option the rest of the way at second base unless he can somehow sustain his unsustainable homer pace (look no further than his 38 percent HR/F ratio for a reason that he has no chance to keep this up).

Carp is totally out of control, an I mean totally. A .200 hitter his first 15 games in the majors this season, Carp has morphed into Adrian Gonzalez since the All-Star break. In 24 games he is batting .371, has six homers, has knocked in 26 runners and has posted a 1.041 OPS.  The question is, how long will it be before he realizes that he isn’t Adrian Gonzalez? His 19 percent HR/F ratio is a bit elevated, and with less than 34 percent of his batted balls ending up in the air, it would be a stretch to expect the power to continue at this rate, especially given his home park (still, he has flashed 30 homer power in the minors, so there is a reasonable expectation that the power will continue). More concerning is the 30 percent line drive rate and .411 BABIP mark. Ty Cobb couldn’t match that.

All of a sudden everyone wants to know about Young with his surprising deal to the Tigers. He should see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, and the move out of Minnesota should help as well since that’s a tough park to hit in. Still, he’s been a huge disappointment this season. Oddly though, he’s exactly matched his .312 BABIP from last season though he’s lost .029 points in batting average (.269), and his 0.32 BB/K mark is only 0.03 off of last year. Also, his 18.4 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career norm, and his 1.31 GB/FB ratio is pretty close to his 1.44 career mark. What I’m saying is that he would appear to have a decent shot to improve his batting average the rest of the way.

So who to add? Young is the most accomplished hitter, but he’s no power threat – at all. Kipnis has been the best power bat of the trio of late, but there is simply no way he can sustain his pace. Therefore, if your goal is to add power to your lineup, I’d suggest adding Carp. Heaven help us.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Ivan Nova for rest of season?
– @tonyistheone

Sanchez has had a fine season and produced a great return on your investment. However, he’s performed poorly of late allowing at least four earned runs in four of five games. He’s also gone 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last six starts. Is he simply wearing down? It’s tough to be too hard on the guy as he has still exceeded his career K/9 rate by two batters (9.41) while dropping a full batter off his walk rate (2.58). He deserves better than his 6-6 record, and his ERA according to xFIP should be closer to three (3.05) than his actual ERA of 4.00.

Nova may or may not remain in the rotation for the Yankees. The good news fore Nova is that A.J. Burnett has a 6.17 ERA and 1.83 over his last six starts, Freddy Garcia doesn’t know how to use a kitchen knife (he cut his finger and had to miss a start) and Phil Hughes is all over the map looking good one outing then getting bombed (it looks like Hughes will likely be sent to the bullpen leaving Nova in the rotation). Nova has a win in seven of his last eight outings, and five times in that stretch he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. Though he’s pitching better than Sanchez right now he’s giving away four strikeouts per nine (5.37) and is walking more batters (3.28 per nine). He makes up for it with an impressive 55 percent ground ball rate, and pitching for the Yanks obviously affords him a better chance to pick up a “W”.

If your goal is to target wins, something that is always a risk, then go with Nova. If you’re trying to move up, or maintain, your spot in the strikeout column, then Sanchez is the choice. How is that for an  answer?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

In the Bowls of Hell

I’m in Washington DC this week, before I saunter on over to St. Louis mid week. It’s a ton of fun getting a chance to spend some quality time with the great folks I work with at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. To the last person, a class act group. But I gotta tell ya, this heat is killing a kid. As a California born and raised boy, 90 is pushing the limits of my heat tolerance. As you are all likely aware, there is a historic heat wave hitting the east coast right now. The other night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and it’s a spectacular place to view a ball game, it was 102 degrees at first pitch. I know your thinking that’s super hot for a day game, but the problem is it was 102 degrees at 7:05 PM. It’s almost too hot to live. Thank goodness there were copious amounts of beer available because what’s better when it’s hot than continuing to dehydrate yourself with booze?

This past weekend saw the HOF induction of Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar take place. While I have some doubt about the efficacy of Blyleven, there is no doubt whatsoever that Alomar was worthy of induction, a fact that I covered in The 2011 Hall of Fame Class. If you ask me, Alomar is one of the five greatest second basemen of all time so I can’t understand why he wasn’t inducted in his first year of eligibility. I’ve also written a few other pieces about the HOF, and two of them are What is a HOF Closer?, and Innocent Until Proven Guilty if you have some time to kill.

Now on to a Mailbag question…

I’ve been holding onto Desmond Jennings and now I can finally get him in my lineup. I need someone to sit between Coco Crisp, Delmon Young, Eduardo Nunez and Magglio Ordonez. Weekly lineup. Steals is not an issue for me, but in a race for R, RBI, HR still.
— Vinny

Desmond Jennings is an elite talent that I profiled back in The Prospect Trinity (the piece also discussed Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, the other two arms of the Trinity). Jennings has taken forever to get to the big league level. The Rays were reluctant to start his arbitration clock early, and then he suffered an injury down on the farm. However, he’s making up for lost time rather quickly as he he killed it since being called up to The Show going 4-for-6 with two runs and two steals making him pretty much a must add in all formats.

Looking at your group, here’s what I would suggest doing.

Magglio Ordonez is hitting .322 in July. He still isn’t showing any power, and he has no speed, but his bat should play as a 5th outfielder type in mixed leagues as long as he’s healthy.

Eduardo Nunez is hitting .333 in July, and he has stolen four bases each of the past three months. However, you say speed isn’t a big need for you which mitigates the main value add of Nunez.

Delmon Young is hitting over .300 his last 34 games, but he has only two homers and 26 RBI in over 250 at-bats.

Coco Crisp has only one steal in his last 10 games, but he’s up to 27 thefts on the year and it’s pretty hard to say adios to production like that.

I’d add Jennings and let go Mr. Nunez if you have your infield covered. If you have outfield depth, there’s really no reason to keep the limited upside of Ordonez.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 13, 2011

(1) Carlos Pena finally hitting. Be wary though.

(2) Magglio Ordonez (ankle) to the DL. Brennan Boesch to take over. For more on Boesch see Buy or Sell – AL Version.

(3) Delmon Young and Logan Morrison come off the DL.

(4) Joe Nathan improving – up to serving as a setup man for Matt Capps.

(5) Grady Sizemore missing time with a knee issue for Indians.

By Ray Flowers

Who Needs September?

Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP on Tuesday despite the fact that he played all of five games after August 31st. Was that honor deserved? Let’s explore this and other issues surrounding the 2010 AL MVP Vote.

Back in early October, I wrote a piece entitled Who is the AL MVP? I chose Miguel Cabrera as the winner of the award, over Hamilton, and here is the most germane point to my belief that Hamilton should not have been the winner. Hamilton became the first player to appear in fewer than 15 games in September to win an MVP award since 1960 (Dick Groat). Think about that. Hamilton played the fewest September games of any MVP in half a century. Given that Cabrera was virtually the same performer over the course of the year, and that he did “it” over 27 more games, it seems obvious to me that he should have been the selection. Apparently, I’m in the minority as people seem to still cling to the belief that the winner of the award should come from a playoff bound team if everything else is basically equal. Apparently “equal” is achieved when a guy plays a full month less of the season than someone else.

Some more facts.

(1) This marked the sixth time a Ranger won the award: Juan Gonzalez (1996, 98), Jeff Burroughs (1974), Ivan Rodriguez (1999) and Alex Rodriguez (2003).

(2) Hamilton was the 10th CF ever to win the award in the American League (a CF has won the award five times in the NL).

Now on to the rest of the voting.

27 first place votes went to Hamilton and Cabrera. Where did the last one go? It went to major league home run leader Jose Bautista who came in 4th overall. The one man to vote for Jose Bautista as the winner was Shi Davidi from Toronto.

Carl Crawford came in 7th in the voting with 98 points as he was left off seven ballots. He could have earned a $700,000 bonus if all seven of those empty ballots had placed him 7th or higher. Another Ray, Evan Longoria, cam in 6th in the voting with 100 points.

Delmon Young finished 10th in the voting. I admit the .298-21-112 line is mighty solid, but do you really think Delmon was the 10th most valuable player in the AL in 2010 when he posted a .333 OBP an a .826 OPS? I certainly don’t, not when the AL average for OBP was .327 or when you realize that his OPS was merely 20th amongst qualifiers.

Twins’ teammate Jim Thome finished with more MVP points (two), than guys like Mark Teixeira (one) and Joakim Soria (one). Thome was terrific this season hitting an impressive .283/.412/.627, but he was limited to only 25 homers because of just 276 at-bats. How he got any AL MVP love is totally beyond me.

As for hurlers, the highest ranking pitcher on the list was another Ray – Rafael Soriano – who finished with 21 points. I think he did a wonderful job, but I still find it odd that he was the top pitcher in the voting. To further build on the voting madness with pitchers, AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez received six points, runner up David Price zero, and third place finisher CC Sabathia got 13. If you don’t understand that join the fricken club.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April28, 2010

(1) Kurt Suzuki continues to miss time with sore side. Jake Fox nearing catcher eligibility.

(2) Brett Anderson’s elbow flexor strain is really a muscle strain.

(3) Blown saves everywhere – Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Madson.

(4) Frank Francisco closing gap on Neftali Feliz?

(5) Matt Capps first to 10 saves.

(6) Justin Morneau could miss rest of the week with back issue.

(7) The world of numbers and hitting broken down at By The Numbers – Hitters including the lack of power from Joe Mauer.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: PART III

In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.

If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.

ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.

ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.

ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.

ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.

ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.

ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.

ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.

ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.

Here is my team (number is round selected).

C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18

P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21

Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28

Team Review:

* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.

* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.

* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).

* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.

* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.

* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.

* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.

* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.

* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.

* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.

* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.

* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.

By Ray Flowers