FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 14 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to Fanduel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 22: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+13, $108,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Who leads NL third basemen in homers? Pedro Alvarez with 27. He’s also knocked in 74 runners, scored 56 times and, somewhat surprisingly, has posted a .250 batting average to this point of the season. That’s not a number to throw a party for, but after hitting .191 last year in a lost season of 235 at-bats, its a pretty impressive mark (he’s actually hitting .280 with a .888 OPS over his last 45 games). Alvarez is currently on one of his patented hot streaks as he’s racked up 14 hits in his last eight games while going deep four times with eight RBIs over his last five contests.

Derek Holland (+41, $341K)
Winner of his last three starts, Holland has allowed a total of eight runs over those 20 innings (3.60 ERA). Holland has also done a very good job limiting the free passes the past six times he has taken the bump walking a total of eight batters. Moreover, only once in 10 outings has he waked more than two batters. His WHIP is a solid 1.21, reflecting the lack of walks, but his ERA is still mighty elevated at 4.79. The main reason is the long ball. After being taken deep 22 times last year in 32 starts he’s allowed 25 homers in just 23 outings this season including 13 in his last nine starts. Once he starts keeping the ball in the yard his performance could take off.

Ricky Nolasco (+130, $285K)
I have an unhealthy connection with Nolasco, just like you did with that significant other in college who was all wrong for you even though kept going back because the “special time” (wink, wink) you spent together was enough to cover over the crazy (I kinda miss those days actually. Wait, did I just type that? Bad Ray.). I want to turn away from Nolasco, one of the more frustrating pitchers in the game to own, because his skills always say he should be better than the results. Just look at his last four starts: 2 ER, 5 ER, 5 ER, 0 ER (the last effort a nine inning shutout of the Nationals). Still, I have to put my bias aside and offer this note of caution – yes he looked spectacular last time out, but he’s also allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his last nine outings. How close to that fire can you get before your eyebrows are singed off?

Rickie Weeks (+17, $89K)
About frickin’ time Rickie. The older Weeks’ brother has 10 hits in his last four games as he’s also scored an amazing nine times. Over his last 30 contests he’s swiped five bags, scored 26 times and hit .295. That’s about as hot as most players ever get. Weeks certainly has more talent than about 90 percent of the players in the game, but maddening inconsistency is the phrase of the day when it comes to describing his production. Through 472 at-bats this season he’s hit .227 but he’s somehow still on the cusp of a 15/15 season (14/12) with 85 runs a definite possibility (he’s scored 68 times).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Carlos Gonzalez (-29, $86K)
I’ve received a handful of queries from people wondering what they should do with CarGo. My advice, the same as always is – you play him. I know he hit .222 with one homer and two steals in 23 games in August, but you still play him everyday. Come on folks, the guys is hitting .309 with a .903 OPS on the year. He’s just four steals from a 20/20 effort for a third straight season. A strong finish could also net him 100 RBIs and 100 runs (83 and 82 right now). Yes it’s been uneven, but overall Carlos has been the superstar he has been the past two years.

James McDonald (-113, $195K)
I’ve finally had it myself with McDonald. Look, if you had told me five months ago that James would have 12 wins, a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 147 Ks in 161.2 innings this year I would have sign ‘sign me up for that.’ Overall he’s been a fantastic waiver-wire add in mixed leagues. At the same time, he’s been abysmal of late. In two of his last four outings he didn’t allow a single earned run, but in seven of the other eight outings in his last 10 appearances he’s allowed at least four earned runs and five or more runs five times. The result is a second half ERA of 7.14 an a WHIP of 1.70 over 10 starts. That seems an awful lot more than just a minor hiccup, doesn’t it?

Anthony Rizzo (-31, $70K)
Rizzo has done a fine job adapting to big league pitching this season after last year’s disaster (.141 in 128 at-bats). Rizzo is hitting a solid .287 with 10 homers, 31 RBIs and 27 runs scored over 60 games (that’s a 150 game pace for 25 homers, 78 RBIs). However, he’s hit .169 with a .526 OPS against left handed pitching, he batted only .252 in August with a sickly .642 OPS, and he’s gone deep just two times in his last 32 games. He’s young and will certainly figure it out, but he’s struggling right now.

Jason Vargas (-42, $340K)
Just like with McDonald, five months ago a 13 win, 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP effort would have been a strong season for Vargas (career 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with 10 victories being a season-high). However his last two outings have been disastrous as he’s allowed five homers, 11 earned runs (12 total) and last just 8.2 innings. A pathetic couple of outings or the start of an awful finish to the season? Given his career performance, and his skill set, some further regression is still quite possible.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Are You Buying or Selling?

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss players to buy and sell at this midpoint in the season. They will discuss guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Pedro Alvarez, R.A. Dickey, Mike Trout, Derek Holland, Adam LaRoche and Trevor Plouffe.

Listen to the Audio.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com. DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Kevin Millwood: We all know that Millwood is nothing more than a place holder anyway. Put him in Coors Field and things could get ugly. Cuddyer has long enjoyed the matchup with the righty as he’s hit .429 with two homers in 28 at-bats. Jason Giambi (.421-3-5) and Todd Helton (.324-2-6) have also enjoyed considerable success in the matchup.

Albert Pujols vs. Jeff Suppan: The latest Padres scrap heap add, Suppan is 2-12 with a 1.69 ERA through three starts. He won’t keep that up much longer. He’s also in grave danger of being tattooed by Mr. Pujols who has suddenly has a 6-game hit streak including two homers and five RBI the last two games. Pujols is also 16-for-42, a .381 average, with a homer and six RBI against Suppan.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Edwin Jackson vs. Orioles: Jackson has pitched very well for the Nats this year with a 3.71 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 4.22 K/BB ratio in his first seven starts for the club. Friday he faces an Orioles club that he has long had success against. In nine career outings against the team from Baltimore he is 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 40 Ks in 47.1 innings, numbers that don’t look at all out of place compared to his work this season.

Ted Lilly vs. Cardinals: In 2008-09 Lilly went 4-1 against the Cardinals and in his career against the Cardinals he’s also 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s also 5-0 this have allowed a single run in four of his six starts (the other two times out he’s allowed six runs leading to a 2.11 ERA for the year).

Carlos Zambrano vs. Indians: In seven starts this season only two times has Big Z allowed more than one earned run (he allowed four runs in six innings in his first start and three runs in six innings on April 27th). The result is a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his 48 innings. It’s hard to sit him against anyone right now.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Ryan Dempster: The Cubs ace is pitching very well to start the year (1.74 ERA, .097 WHIP) but Dunn is performing equally as well for the White Sox (12 HR, 30 RBI, .947 OPS in 39 games) . In 27 career plate appearances against Dempster Dunn has hit .294 while he’s walked 10 times leading to an otherworldly .556 OBP (he has two homers and four RBI as well).

Adrian Gonzalez vs. Joe Blanton: AGone hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but he’s set up for a matchup Saturday that should certainly be advantageous to him. In 16 at-bats against Blanton he has seven hits, two of which are big flies, and he’s knocked in four runs leading to a .438 average and 1.283 OPS.

Ty Wigginton vs. Jon Lester: These two have only squared off 20 times but Wigginton has produced eight hits (.400) including a homer. Add in the four walks Ty has also been able to accrue and the Phillies’ batter has a video game like .538 OBP in the matchup.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Christian Friedrich vs. Mariners: How is this for a way to start your big league career. Take on the Padres in San Diego. Then fly north up the California coast to take on the Giants in San Francisco. How about you them hop on a plan to fly home to take on the Mariners. Has a pitcher ever had a better set of three opponents to take on to start his big league career? Through 13 innings the lefty with the dominating curve ball has 17 Ks, two walks allowed an a 1.38 ERA.

Derek Holland vs. Astros: He’s made two starts against the Astros, and though his ERA is 4.15 his WHIP is impressive at 1.08, as is his BAA of .234. Plus, the Astros are far from being an offensive juggernaut, right? There’s also the fact that over his last 14.1 innings that Holland has allowed one earned run.

Yovani Gallardo vs. Twins: The Twins are in the bottom five in many offensive categories this year including runs scored which should certainly help Gallardo who has allowed just four runs while striking out 14 batters over his last 12 innings. Gallardo has also impressed in four starts against the Twins in his career with a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 27 Ks in 29 innings.

CONTESTS

There is still time to take me on in a one day fantasy baseball game, today, Friday.

Click on the link to Take on Ray Flowers to learn how you can sign up for free to win $, and to get bragging rights by beating a baseball expert.

Get on it!

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching

Today I’m just going to fly all over the place and randomly hit on some numbers that speak to me from the 2011 season. You know me, I’m random as all hell anyway, so this may not be any different than normal despite the intro warning you of the impending zaniness. Special thanks goes to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool. Looking at my shelf I’ve got copies dating all the way back to 2001).

0 – The number of NL hurlers who received six runs of support per nine innings (the NL leader amongst qualifiers, 162 innings pitched, was Jaime Garcia at 5.92). Over in the Junior Circuit there were five guys who received at least six runs of support – Jon Lester (6.86), Ivan Nova (6.70), Max Scherzer (6.42), Rick Porcello (6.38) and Colby Lewis (6.15) . There was even one guy, Derek Holland, who was over seven runs of support per nine innings. My goodness, he was over seven and a half at 7.64 runs per nine innings, an ungodly number. Wins may not be so easy to come by for Holland in 2012, so keep that in mind on draft day.

.086 – The best batting average in baseball with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) for a pitcher. Nationals’ reliever extraordinaire Tyler Clippard was the owner of that mark. No other reliever had a mark under .125.

.228 – The OBP of leadoff batters last season against Justin Verlander, the lowest in baseball amongst hurlers who tossed at least 150 innings. Two others allowed less than a quarter of leadoff hitters to reach base in Cole Hamels (.247) and Jordan Zimmerman (.249).

6.1 – The major league leading inherited runner strand rate of the Royals’ Greg Holland. Only one other pitcher in baseball was able to post a mark in the single digits and that was Al Alburquerque’s mark of 9.7 percent. The NL leader was George Sherrill at 10.8 percent.

8 – The number of “tough loses” – defined as a Game Score above 50 when a loss was picked up – by Hiroki Kuroda, David Price and James Shields (there will be more on Game Scores below). That was the highest mark in baseball. At the other end of the spectrum we have “cheap wins,” those outings with a Game Score under 50 while a win was picked up. The leader in that dubious category was Brad Penny with six, one more than the mark of five by John Lackey.

53.1 – The percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone from Cliff Lee, the highest mark in baseball. The only other pitcher who hit the mark more than 50 percent of the time was an unlikely source – knuckleballer R.A. Dickey of the Mets at 51.0 percent.

96 – The best pitched game in baseball last year was Chris Capuano’s effort on the 26th of August if you believe in Game Scores (an invention of Bill James that takes into account everything that a pitcher does on the hill). In that effort Capuano pitched nine shutout innings, allowed just two hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out 13 (for more on Capuano see his Player Profile). Ervin Santana’s no-hitter on July 27th gave him a score of 94 while Justin Verlander’s no-hitter from May 7th resulted in a score of 90.

98.0 – The average fastball speed last season of the major league leader (minimum 50 innings pitched). If I gave you 37 guesses I doubt you’d settle on the right name. The most obvious name is Aroldis Chapman, but he came in second at 97.9 mph. The leader was actually the Nationals’ Henry Rodriguez. Chapman did lead baseball with 158 pitches of at least 100 mph, 31 more than Rodriguez.

133 – The most pitches thrown in a game last season by Tim Lincecum. There were two other games over 130-pitches as team continue to monitor pitch counts very closely – Chris Carpenter (132), Roy Halladay (130).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 2, 2011

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.

Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth

Sample size people.

Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.

(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.

(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.

(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.

Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.

2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F

Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK

Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?

Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.

Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.

Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub

Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.

Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.

I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.

Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton

The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.

Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.

Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.

Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Undervalued Performers for 2011

Photo by Debra Roby

Which player who is currently flying a bit under the radar has a chance to be a top-50 performer this season?

I asked some of the brightest minds in the industry. Here are their thoughts.

Ryan Boyer, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @RyanPBoyerMLB
Derek Holland, LHP, Rangers
Top-50 might be stretching it a bit, but a guy I really like to take a big step forward this season is Derek Holland. The Rangers’ No. 2 prospect in 2009 in what was at the time an absolutely loaded farm system, Holland dealt with some shoulder inflammation last season, but when he was healthy, he struck out nearly a batter per inning for Texas and was simply dominant at Triple-A (1.87 ERA over 11 starts). The Rangers are looking for someone to pick up the slack with Cliff Lee gone, and I think a likely scenario is Holland being that guy and Neftali Feliz staying in the bullpen. This 24-year-old has the upside to be one of the better lefties in the AL in short order.

Jason Collette, BaseballProspectus.com and Rotowire.com
Twitter: @jasoncollette
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto
Encarnacion has a breakout power year in limited playing time in 2010. Despite being in the league for what seems like forever, he is just 28 years old and now can focus mainly on his hitting as he is not going to be asked to do much in the field this year other than play some first base against the tough lefties (okay, maybe the not-so-tough lefties, too) that Adam Lind struggles against. Maybe this is more the fan in me than the analyst, but I like Encarnacion’s chances of hitting 30 home runs in 2011 more than I like Jose Bautista’s chance at 40. I have Edwin pegged as one of the few players to increase their homer totals by 10 or more from this past season as I think his plate skills, playing time, and the end of his defensive butchery at third base all converge into his true breakout season.

Patrick Daugherty, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @pat3537
Gio Gonzalez, SP, A’s
Overshadowed by Trevor Cahill’s out-of-nowhere Cy Young run and Dallas Braden’s perfect game last season, it was easy not to notice that Gio Gonzalez notched a SO/9 of over seven and a half while posting improved peripherals across the board. Still just 25 and getting markedly better each year, don’t be surprised if he’s the Athletic that makes a serious run at the Cy Young this season – and ends up anchoring your fantasy pitching staff.

Cory Elfrink, SI.com contributor
Jason Bay, OF, Mets
From 2005-2009, Jason Bay averaged 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 101 runs, and 12 steals while batting .279. His first season hitting in Citi Field, much like David Wright’s first season there, was a disaster. Not only did he appear in just 95 games – largely due to a concussion – but even when he did suit up, he delivered production far below expectations. Heading into 2011, Bay is not exactly being ignored in drafts as his ADP is firmly in the top-150. However, he seems like a fallback option on everyone’s board. I would say there are less than 25 hitters in the game capable of producing what Bay averaged for the five-season stretch heading into last season. A player like Troy Tulowitzki plays a premium position, no doubt. He’s also going in the top-10, if not the top-5, of most drafts. Yet his projections are in line with Bay’s averages from 2005-09. In other words, don’t be surprised if Bay comfortably finishes among the top-50 fantasy players in 2011.

Kyle Elfrink, The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
In the second half of his second season, he posted a .285/.336/.459 slash line which was right in line with his 2009 season. He’s still only 24 and he finally gets to stick at one position (he was drafted as a shortstop, brought up as a third baseman, and handled second base duties last year). He should be charged with nothing but second base this year. His steals could hit double-digits, and if that happens you have a rarity at second base – a .280 hitter with double-digit homers, double-digit steals and an OPS of near .800. He’s a guy that you can get outside the top-175 with a chance at sniffing the top-50.

Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Rotowire.com
Twitter: @baseballguys
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
A “post hype sleeper,” there was a point a few years ago that Maybin was on everyone’s lips as a “must have,” but those times have faded as his performance in the bigs has been poor to date. Still, Maybin has been highly effective at Triple-A the past two years (he has hit .325-7-62-65-13 in just 115 games at Triple-A), and it looks like he will be given every chance to play on a daily basis for the Padres. Given that opportunity, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could evolve into a Mike Cameron type who could go 20/20, albeit with a mediocre average, as early as this season, and don’t forget that he is only 23 years old.

David Longnecker, KFFL.com
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
After Nick Markakis posted a line of .300/23/112 and stole 18 bases in 2007, he appeared to be on the brink of fantasy stardom as a multi-category stud. He’s yet to arrive there, but I expect Markakis to return to his former glory in 2011. He’s simply far too talented to post his best career season at the age of 23. Now 27 and under far less pressure to reproduce his former numbers and to produce due to a revamped lineup, Markakis is primed to be a top-50 fantasy player. It’s not too much to expect Markakis to produce 20 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs, 12 steals and an average north of .300 in 2011. Even if he falls short of that, he’s going to be a great bargain considering his ADP.

David Rogers, Frozenotes.com
Twitter: @Frozennotes
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
A personal favorite of mine, Markakis has a pretty quiet season last year swatting just 12 homers while driving in a mere 60 runs. However, though his stats weren’t overwhelming, he still maintained a solid .297 average. This season there’s a lot to get excited about concerning the Baltimore offense. Assuming injuries and current health concerns don’t flare up, the Orioles will feature a formidable lineup, top to bottom. The additions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds should give Markakis a boost this season.

Seth Trachtman
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
Plenty of people are talking about Montero this spring, especially after Francisco Cervelli’s injury, but few are expecting much of significance from him. However, Cervelli’s injury all but guarantees Montero will break camp with the major league club, and the Yankees will give their prized prospect playing time no matter where he resides. It also helps that Russell Martin hasn’t produced in two years, and Jorge Posada’s bat speed is precipitously slowing. Consider that Montero already has a full season of Triple-A under his belt, and against much more advanced competition at age 20 he hit .289-21-75 in 453 at-bats last season.  The only reason to send Montero down again is to work on his defense, but the Yankees have reportedly been thrilled with his progress after losing a few pounds. Not many catchers produce offensively this early in their careers, but even fewer do what he did at age 20 in the International League. Montero is currently being drafted among the lower tier of second catchers in mixed leagues, but he’s more than capable of being a top five catcher now — or better.

Charlie Wiegert, Godfatheroffantasysports.com
Grady Sizemore, OF Cleveland
After four consecutive 20-20 years, and a 30-30 year in 2008, Sizemore has been curtailed by injuries the last two seasons, making him an easy person to forget. The guy is only 28, and should be going into the prime of his career, which once made him a fantasy top-10 pick. Sizemore is working through his rehab program after undergoing microfracture surgery on his left knee in June, and it’s unlikely he’ll be ready for the start of the season, more reason most owners will ignore him. He went early in the 8th round of our recent FSTA Experts league draft to Roto Experts, a bit earlier than I expected. I was hoping to get him in the 10-11 round area, which would make his risk vs reward a better option. After 130 picks, he was worth taking in my opinion, but at the 100 pick mark, outfielders like Nick Markakis, Chris Young and Curtis Granderson were still available.

Editors Note: Charlie got his man when he took Grady Sizemore in a recent draft held amongst the former Fanball Crew.

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 10, 2010

(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.

(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.

(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.

(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.

(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.

(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.

(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.

(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 23, 2010

(1) David DeJesus out for the year with injured thumb.

(2) It’s true, Brian Roberts is back.

(3) Carl Crawford returns to the starting lineup.

(4) Justin Masterson could be shut down in September.

(5) Rangers could get Rich Harden and Derek Holland back soon.

(6) J.A. Happ to return to Phillies because of injury to Jamie Moyer.

(7) The Royals have recalled Alex Gordon. Should you care? Read Five Questions to find out (there is also more in that piece about Roberts return and what to do with Happ).

By Ray Flowers