LABR: An Experts Take

The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, just completed the 19th draft in the history of the event (12 experts drafted in the American League, and 13 in the National League, this past weekend in Phoenix). I was graciously invited to the NL-only draft, thank you to Steve Gardner for that (you can read Steve’s thoughts on the draft in this piece), and though my team has been roundly lambasted since the drafts completion I still had a great time at the event and look forward to the marathon that is the baseball season. Before I offer some thoughts on the draft, here’s who I was able to roster on my squad (for a look at the entire auction here is a Google Doc with all the selections).

C: Wilin Rosario ($8), David Ross (2)
1B: Garret Jones (10)
2B: Daniel Murphy (17)
3B: Placido Polanco (10)
SS: Rafael Furcal (12)
MI: Chris Nelson (4)
CI: Derrek Lee (3)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (33), Dexter Fowler (19), Chris Young (20), Alfonso Soriano (10), Carlos Quentin (13)
UT: Nate McLouth (4)

PITCHERS: Madison Bumgarner (19), Tommy Hanson (14), Rafael Betancourt (16), Wandy Rodriguez (10), Gio Gonzalez (13), Sergio Romo (6), Luke Gregerson (3), Takashi Saito (2), Jeff Samardzija (1), Erik Surkamp (1)

BENCH: Ross Detwiler, Rick Ankiel, Blake DeWitt, Tom Gorzelanny, Logan Forsythe, J.D. Drew

Some general notes.

In this league trading is allowed. That might be something I will need to explore to bolster some areas of weakness.

There is an odd quirk in LABR. All players that were drafted at the auction table need to be in your active roster. The only want to remove a player from your lineup is if he is placed on the DL or demoted to the minors, or of course you can always just cut a player. However, if Dexter Fowler is hitting .199 in April I can’t just put him on the bench, he has to remain active (Chris Liss of Rotowire.com won the AL-Only league last year despite having to hold on to Adam Dunn all year).

As for my team…

Yes I left money on the table, and yes that was a mistake. I’d pinpoint two areas where I should have spent more. (1) I should have added Aaron Hill up the middle. I backed out at $14 and Wolf/Colton rostered him for $15. If I had gotten Hill the last quarter of my team would have looked different, but I certainly could have used him given my lack of infield strength. (2) I should have gone the extra dollar on either Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco who went for $9. Could have also gone the extra dollar on Chris Volstad who I let go (maybe a few bucks to Roy Oswalt would have been nice too). Everyone who follows my work knows I’m a fan of both. Instead, I ended up with Erik Surkamp as my final starter.

Everyone is bashing me for my weak infield, and I can certainly see why there is concern. A big key for me is obviously what happens with Derrek Lee. If he signs with someone a 20 homer, 70 RBI season would be huge for my club. However, he might retire, he might end up in the AL or he might end up playing as a part timer in the NL. People have also questioned my catchers, and with good reason. But to be fair, catchers were going for some pretty high dollar amounts. Would you have paid $10 for Jonathan Lucroy, $8 for Ryan Hanigan or $5 for Jason Castro? Maybe, maybe not, right? Another key is the health of Rafael Furcal and Placido Polanco. If they play 135 games each then this situation looks a lot better. If they don’t, look out below.

Is the infield weak? Yes it is, but I think some have overlooked the strength of my outfield. For my money, it’s the best group in the league. There might be valid concerns with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Quentin, but if the both hit 25 homers with 80 RBIs, as my 4th and 5th outfielders in an NL-only league, that’s pretty damn good. Chris Young might hit .240, but he’s also been a 20/20 guy three of the last five years while averaging 91 runs scored a season the past two years. At this point everyone knows I’m on the Dexter Fowler train, I might be the conductor, but I really have high hopes for him putting it all together for a full season. And then there is Andrew McCutchen who is a wonderful foundational building block.

On the hill, I love my top-4 arms: MadBum, Hanson, Wandy and Gonzalez. I took a risk on Hanson, but I thought at $14 it was worth it even with the health concerns. As for Gio, I’m shocked I got him actually. I threw him out there for $13 fully expecting him to go for at least $18. Ten seconds later he was part of my team. Funny thing, after the :10 seconds of silence when no one pushed his bid up I then heard three teams at the table say that he was a great buy.

I overpaid for Rafael Betancourt at $16. This was another mistake I made – i.e. I waited to long to jump into the closer mix. I incorrectly thought that people would grow weary of paying $15 for every closer that was thrown out for bid. They didn’t. At the point I added Betancourt he was the only legitimate closer left on the board other than a guy like Frank Francisco, so I was forced to overpay to add Rafael who has elite skills but has never shown the ability to work the 9th inning before the last month of 2012. I should have jumped into the closer mix earlier – I might have saved a few bucks.

In the end, the truth is every team in an NL-only league with 13 clubs is going to have holes. Hopefully things break right for me an I’m in contention late. If not, I’ll review all the correct an incorrect decisions I made over the course of the season and come back even more prepared in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

One Of Those Days

You ever have one of those days? You know the type. You wake up with a little bit of an extra pep in your step. The morning sun hits your face as you sip on your hot coco. You’re looking forward to a good day of work which will then be capped off by an evening with someone you care about. What could be better than those simple pleasures, right?

And then the real world smacks you in the face.

That happened to me today. Oh there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, it’s still well before 11 AM as I write this, but darned if life doesn’t just try and beat you down whenever it can. Why is that (in case you are wondering, nothing “really” bad happened to me, it was actually more about typical annoyances)?

In the vein of “bad days,” here are some guys that have had life beat them down of late. Hopefully they’ve got some Bailey’s Irish Cream to throw in that hot coco.

Alejandro De Aza – A solid option really late in drafts for the speed upside, that outlook was crushed when the White Sox decided to add Kosuke Fukudome to the outfield mix. So much for that 26th round pick of De Aza offering much of anything. He’s now merely an AL-only option.

Josh Hamilton – No need to pile on here. Let’s just hope that he gets his life back on track. A positive note came out Thursday. Hamilton will not face any discipline from the Rangers or Major League Baseball for his recent off the field transgressions with the bottle.

Scott Kazmir – He was supposed to throw for interested parties on Wednesday, but for some unknown reason the session was pushed back until Friday (he claims it has nothing to do with any physical sort of limitations and the most likely explanation is that some team that had an interest likely wasn’t going to be able to present at his throwing session on Wednesday). What the hell happened to Kazmir by the way? Just 28 years old, it’s amazingly easy to forget that it was a mere couple of years back that he was locked at as one of the up an coming lefties in the game. He wasn’t just coming on to fill a 4th or 5th rotation spot either. Kazmir was going to be an elite hurler. In 2005 he posted a 8.42 K/9 mark in 186 innings. In 2006 he upped that number to 10.14 over 144.2 innings. In 2007, his best campaign, he won 13 games, posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out a significant total of 239 batters in 206.2 innings. Those K’s led to a 10.41 K/9 mark which just so happens to be the 8th best mark that any left-handed pitcher, who threw at least 162 innings, has been able to post in the 21st century (if we remove Randy Johnson’s efforts that would put Kazmir’s mark in the 4th spot). Alas problems with his conditioning and dedication came up, and his arm ran out of juice (his average fastball was 93.7 mph as a rookie, 92.6 mph in his second season, and it dipped all the way to 86.5 mph in his 1.2 inning outing last year for the Angels). He’s still young enough to carve out a role but he will never reach the heights that were predicted.

Derrek Lee – I know he’s older at 36 years of age, and that he struggled for much of the season last year, but Lee still hit .267 with 19 homers in just 435 at-bats. So why is he still without a team? Certainly there are offers on the table for Lee, likely as a part-time option, so I’m going to assume that Lee is holding out for a starting gig somewhere. I find it hard to believe that there are 30 better first basemen out there right now but he’s still sitting at home.

Johan Santana – Coming back from shoulder surgery, all eyes are on the one time superstar of the Mets, but come on now. Did you see the report that the Mets’ pitching coach – Dan Warthen – was impressed by a video of Santana throwing. Really? I’ve got better things for you to watch on your laptop than Santana chucking the ball around – maybe an episode of Grimm? Did you also see the report that he was throwing from 175 feet? Whoopie freaking do. I haven’t regularly thrown the ball in about 10 years and I could go our and play catch from 175 feet. That means nothing. Johan plans on throwing at the Mets’ camp today so I guess the eyes of the baseball nation will be upon him. Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was. As if age, workload and shoulder surgery weren’t enough to worry about, have you bothered to look at his numbers the last few years? I can list one series of numbers for you that should make you exceedingly nervous, even if he is healthy once more in 2012. Here are his K/BB ratios the past six seasons (remember, he didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2011): 5.29, 5.21, 4.52, 3.27, 3.17 and 2.62. Uh, that’s not a good trend even if the 2.62 K/BB ratio he posted in 2010 is still well above average.

By Ray Flowers

To purchase the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, click on the link.

Still In The Game

I know the NFL season got underway last night with a barn burner between the Saints and the Packers, but I’m still all about baseball even though my Giants have completely fallen apart. Here are some players who are flashing a strong finishing kick as the season nears the finish line.

Raul Ibanez is old, boring, and if he wasn’t on the Phillies you might have forgotten that he was still playing major league baseball. Still, the guy is on fire of late, and once again is an option in mixed leagues. Ibanez has seven hits in his last 17 at-bats, and over his last 10 games he is batting .378 with two homers and seven RBI. He’s also three doubles from a 10th straight season of 30, and with 37 RBI in his last 43 games he needs just nine RBI to push his season total to 80 for the 7th straight year and ninth time in 10 years. The old guy is still producing despite a .293 OBP an a .720 OPS, but make sure you buy a ticket to watch him play right now. This is likely his last hurrah.

Jon Jay of the Cardinals has 12 hits in his last 23 at-bats leading to a .522 batting average. During that run he has recorded 5-straight games with at least two hits. The recent run has pushed his season average up to .308 which would be the 7th best mark in the NL if he had enough plate appearances. The Cardinals have 19 games left on the year, and Jay currently has 428 plate appearances. Since you need 502 to qualify for the batting title he’ll need 74 plate appearances from here on out to make it. He’d need to average 3.89 PAs per outing. He can do that if he stays healthy.

Since returning from his stint on the DL Joe Nathan has posted a 2.96 ERA with 10 saves over 26 outings. Is he totally “back”? Well, if judged by his batting average against (.178 over 90 at-bats) the answer would certainly be yes.

Derrek Lee has had a down season to be sure, but he has been flat out killing it of late. Since he returned from the DL he has gone 10-for-20 with two bombs and seven RBI. He could still help you out if you need a corner infield boost in mixed leagues.

Carlos Pena has posted a .422 OBP and .993 OPS over his last 32 games thanks in no small part to the 26 walks he has received. He needs two bombs and 12 RBI the final three weeks for a fifth straight season of 28 homers and 84 RBI.

Ryan Roberts owns a .256/.354/.444 slash line which is boring and pretty much a carbon copy of his career numbers (.254/.344/.417). However, he’s been given every day playing time, and as a result some of his numbers are rather impressive. The 54 RBI stink, but the D’back has 77 runs scored. Pretty solid. He has 18 homers, again, pretty solid considering all the issues that third base has had this year. However, when you add in 18 steals, his fantasy value skyrockets. That’s right, this “no-name” is two homers and two steals from one of the most improbable 20/20 seasons in recent memory.

And the one downer of the list…

Rickie Weeks has been activated off the DL for the Brewers. It was thought that he would be able to pinch hit right away as he worked on strengthening his ankle. However, the team is now saying that it might still be a few days before he’s able to do even that. What that means is that you shouldn’t be counting on playing him next week in your H2H matchup. I’ve said it so many times, but it bears repeating: coming into the season he had three seasons of 100+ games and three with less than 100 games. He’s appeared in 104 games up to this point, so don’t come crying to me if you are disappointed. It’s just how it goes with Weeks who is looking more like J.D. Drew by the day.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 2, 2011

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.

Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth

Sample size people.

Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.

(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.

(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.

(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.

Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.

2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F

Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK

Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?

Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.

Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.

Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub

Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.

Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.

I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.

Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton

The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.

Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.

Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.

Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: First Base, Third Base

You’re killing me.

I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.

I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”

Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.

Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.

Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?

The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power

One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker

All anyone will be talking about today is the Cliff Lee signing, and while I too will lead off with his improbable deal with the Phillies, there are some other moves that are worthy of at least throwing a paragraph at.

Cliff Lee: Ted Carlson already covered the Phillies swopping in a and nabbing the top pitcher on the market out from under the Yankees and Rangers in Phil-Lee Surprise. Here is my favorite line from the piece. “That’s the best quartet that Philly has seen since Boyz II Men.” Classic. Debate will rage about if this is the best foursome of pitchers since the Braves’ in the 1990, the Orioles in the early 70′s or the Indians in 50′s, but let’s just say Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is a flat out amazing group of arms. As pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the top-4 now sports the 2010 major league leader in Wins Above Replacement (Lee), the NL leader in WHIP (Oswalt at 1.03), the NL Cy Young winner (Halladay), and the best left-handed pitcher in the Senior Circuit after 7/1 (Hamels posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and a 4.24 K/BB mark over his final 118.1 IP). As was also pointed out by @ggiants on Twitter, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants beat all four of those pitchers in the 2010 playoffs, so don’t go coronating the Phillies as the 2011 champs just yet.

Adam LaRoche/Derrek Lee: It would appear that the Nationals, Orioles and D’backs all need a starting first baseman, and these two are obviously the top-2 options on the free agent market. Both hitters bring solid bats and can be expected to hit 20 homers with at least 80 RBI, and while that isn’t overly exciting by any means, there is nary a team in the game that wouldn’t take that kind of production if the price was right. Lee is likely to command bigger dollars even though he is coming off a slightly depressed season (.260-19-80) and despite the fact that he is four years old at 35. Either one would be a nice pickup at this point with all the big names flying off the free agent board, and neither is going to be poor with teams throwing around money like a drunken frat boy at a gentleman’s club.

Russell Martin: It appears a near certainty that Martin will join the Yankees which sends the wheels moving (he’ll need to pass a physical to make it official). (1) Martin will sign a one year deal with the club, though it’s really a 2-year deal since Martin will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season, so the Yankees can choose to keep him for one more season if they so desire. (2) It appears that despite coming back off hip surgery, the Yankees are confident that Martin will be able to catch the majority of the time. (3) His signing means that Jesus Montero will likely get some more time to work on his glove in the minors. The dude is ready to hit big league pitching, but many “in the know” worry if he will ever be able to handle the rigors of catching everyday in the big leagues. (4) The real question at this point is what does Martin have left? The hip issue is a huge concern in it’s own right given that a catcher sometimes has to squat and all, but as concerning is the lack of any type of production from his bat. From 2006-08 Martin’s average season was .285-14-74-80-16 as he was a fantasy darling. Since then he has produced an average yearly outing of .249-6-40-54-9, which hardly the stuff of legend. Hitting in a loaded lineup in New York, in a great hitter’s park will help, but I would like his outlook a lot better if he wasn’t being counted on to catch four or five days a week. Don’t be swayed by the love of all things Yankees when considering Martin on draft day, 2011.

Hideki Matsui: The Athletics will announce that they have signed Hideki Matsui after he completes his physical (reports are the deal will be for about $4.25 million for one year). It would appear that Godzilla will be asked to take over as the primary DH in Oakland now that Jack Cust has signed with the Mariners (you can read about that move in Hot Stove: December 8, 2010). Matsui finished 2010 well, and that is putting it mildly, as he batted .309 with 11 homers and 37 RBI, not to mention a .955 OPS, over his last 60 games. The end result was a .274-21-84 line that gave at least those three numbers in each of his last five seasons of 450 at-bats (he hit “only” 16 homers in 2003 when he batted .287 with 106 RBI). Oakland isn’t a great place to hit, and it’s not like their lineup is overflowing with talent, but with Matsui you know what you are going to get.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: First Base

We all know who the best first baseman in baseball is. He is the same man that is not only the best hitter in baseball, he is the man who provided a normal career arc will end up as one of the top-10 hitters who has ever played the game. This man was my choice to be the top first baseman in fantasy baseball in 2009, a fact that was presented in the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. In retrospect, how did my preseason top-10 list turn out?

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols

2. Miguel Cabrera

3. Ryan Howard

4. Mark Teixeira

5. Lance Berkman

6. Justin Morneau

7. Prince Fielder

8. Adrian Gonzalez

9. Derrek Lee

10. Joey Votto

Pujols was the best fantasy weapon in the game in 2009, a fact that was simply stated in How Good is Albert Pujols?

Cabrera is destined to post spectacular numbers while never quite getting his due since he plays the same position as Mr. Pujols. Cabrera has hit at least .292 with 26 homers and 103 RBI in each of the past six seasons and, you guessed it, he and Mr. Pujols are the only two men who can make that claim.

All Howard did was hit 45 homers, the third highest mark in baseball, while tying for the major league lead with 141 RBI. Amazingly, Howard has hit at least 45 homers with 136 RBI each of the past four seasons, and only Sammy Sosa (1998-2001) and Babe Ruth (1926-31) can match or better that run.

Mark Teixeira finished second in the AL MVP vote with yet another tremendous season (.292-39-122-103). Teixeira is one of only four switch-hitters in baseball history who have had at least four seasons of .290-30-100: Chipper Jones (five times), Lance Berkman (four) and Eddie Murray (four).

Berkman struggled out of the gate but finished strong, though 2009 was his worst all-around effort (.274-25-80) since 2005, the last time he was held to fewer than 530 at-bats. Still had a .399 OBP and a .907 OPS, but clearly he was “off” for a good deal of the year.

Morneau managed to sock 30 homers with 100 RBI despite being limited to his lowest at-bat total (508) since 2005 as he missed the last three weeks of the season with a back injury. Hard to call a fourth straight 100-RBI season a disappointment, and he has now alternated great with good seasons the past four years.

Fielder tied with Howard for the major league lead with 141 RBI as he blasted 46 dingers on the year. Fielder also finished a mere percentage point from his first .300 season. He also continued to display a keen eye at the plate as he was fourth in baseball with 110 walks and seventh with a .412 OBP.

If only he could get out of San Diego, something that might happen if the Padres decide to deal their slugger for a boatload of prospects. Gonzalez feel one RBI short of a third straight 100 RBI season but he socked a career best 40 homers despite hitting only 12 in 80 home games. Could produce astounding numbers in a better park with some lineup production.

Lee hit .189 with one homer in April. Those that remained steadfast were rewarded as Lee considerably picked up the pace over the course of the season on his way to hitting .306 with 35 homers and 111 RBI. The RBI were a career best, and the homers the second best mark of his career to his total of 46 from 2005.

Votto missed time with injury and depression over the loss of his father, in between all he did was rip the cover off the ball to the tune of a .322 average and 25 homers in a mere 469 at-bats. As a result he was one of only six big leaguers who hit at least .320 with 25 homers: Pujols, Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Joe Mauer and Robinson Cano.

By Ray Flowers

The NL MVP Race

If you say the NL MVP should go to anyone other than Albert Pujols you have taken one too many hits of the hookah pipe. Still, I find it a bit distasteful too only review some of the award races, and since I’ve already gone over the NL Cy Young and the AL Cy Young, I thought it prudent to continue my way around the big time baseball awards for 2009.

With that, here is my top-10 ballot for NL MVP. It’s a tough call choosing just 10 guys, but at least I know the difference between BABIP and batters eye, whereas I would posit the position that well over half the people who vote for the award think those two terms come from the proposed healthcare initiative in Congress.

One final note. I do NOT believe that pitchers should be eligible for the MVP. They have their own award, so leave this one to the hitter’s fellas.

10 – Derrek Lee
Not much went right for the Cubs this season, but after a brutal start (.189 with one homer in April), Lee rebounded to hit .306 with 35 homers, 111 RBI and 91 runs scored.

9 – Mark Reynolds
Yes he set a major league record with 223 strikeouts, an unmitigated disaster, but at the same time he socked 44 long balls, knocked in 102 runs, finished just two runs shy of scoring 100 times and stole 24 bases. That’s a terrific season even if you hit just .260.

8 – Matt Kemp
Though he slumped in the end hitting just .224 over his last 30 games, Kemp was the main man in a lineup that missed Manny Ramirez for 50-games. Kemp hit .297 with 26 homers, 101 RBI, 97 runs and even stole 34 bases. Just imagine how good his numbers might have been if he didn’t have 250 of his at-bats in the seventh and eight holes.

7 – Ryan Howard
For the fourth straight year he had at least 45-homers and 135-RBI (he had 45 and 141). Even though he also posted 180-Ks for the fourth straight year, he managed to tie his career best of 105 runs while posting a .931 OPS for the Fighting Phils.

6 – Pablo Sandoval
Pablo for President. Sandoval finished second in the league with a .330 batting average, hit 25 homers, knocked in 90 runs and had a .943 OPS that was seventh in the Senior Circuit, and he did all this in a lineup of hitters that couldn’t hit .300 in a high school game (OK, maybe college).

5 – Ryan Braun
His numbers (.320-32-114-113-20) are better than the man ahead of him on the list, but Braun is a middling defender who only impacts the game on one side of the field. Still, few do it better with a bat in their hands.

4 – Troy Tulowitzki
Undoubtedly the major reason the Rockies turned their season around, Tulo hit .226 with five home runs the first two months (46 games) before going bonkers at the dish leading to a .297-32-92-101-20 line. Those are tremendous numbers for anyone, let alone when they belong to the man that just might be the best defensive shortstop in the National League.

3 – Prince Fielder
Prince socked 46 long balls, knocked in major league best 141 runs (tied with Howard) and managed to hit .299 with 110 walks leading to a .412 OBP the fifth best mark in the NL. He was also one of two men to top a grand in OPS with his mark of 1.014

2 – Hanley Ramirez
Didn’t match his previous totals in the steal department (27) but he led the NL in average (.342), had a higher OPS (.954) and Ryan Braun (.937), scored 101 times while knocking in 106 and also socked 24 long balls. Another tremendous season it was for the Marlins’ shortstop.

1 – Albert Pujols
Duh.

Pujols led the majors with 47 homers and an OPS of 1.101 OPS, and he also knocked in 135, scored 124 times, stole 16 bases for good measure led the NL in OBP (.443) and the majors in SLG (.658). The man is flat out historic.

By Ray Flowers