Mailbag: July5, 2012

Each week I’ll be  answer some of the questions I’ve received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Pablo Sandoval and Desmond Jennings for Joey Votto? Have Brett Lawrie at 3B so Panda sits on my bench or in utility spot.
– @Youksbeard

All of this hullabaloo over Sandoval being named the starter over David Wright for the All-Star Game has obscured the fact that Sandoval is performing very well. Yes he’s only been on the field for 47 games, but if we push things out to 150, at his current pace, we’d be looking at a guy hitting .313 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs (those numbers are nearly identical to his career marks per 162 games: .308-23-87). Those aren’t stupendous numbers, but they are pretty darn good, aren’t they? If you’re “stuck” with that as your utility option many will wish they could be you.

Jennings was a victim of his own hype. As I stated to everyone that would listen all offseason, Jennings wasn’t going to be a 25 homer hitter this season, and those who thought he was a 20/40 option were always going to be disappointed. He’s stolen 15 bags in 59 games including three in his last four games, so apparently his knee is finally healthy. However he’s hitting .231 as his walk rate has gone down from his rookie season leading to a below league average 0.40 BB/K mark. He’s also be smart to hit a few more balls on the ground to take advantage of his speed. The talent is still here for a huge second half, but there’s not a lot going on right now to suggest he’s going to realize that potential in the second half this season.

Votto — do I need to waste time/space saying he is elite? As long as his body holds up there is little reason to think that he won’t end the year the way he was drafted – as a top-10 overall performer.

You have Lawrie at third so you don’t have to have Pablo around, but as I mentioned, Pablo is still a great utility option. Jennings is a borderline elite talent, even if his production has been far from that level this year. Most people will tell you that getting the best player in the deal often means you win. In this case here is my answer – you’re never going to be wrong adding Votto to your club, but if you’re team is lacking depth holding on to Pablo and Desmond might still end up being the best move.

Anibal Sanchez dropable in 12 team roto? Dude has been killin me for over month.
– @lmfriedrich

On June 9th, less than a month ago, Sanchez had a 3.19 ERA. Now that mark stands exactly one run higher at 4.19. Obviously he’s had a brutal stretch (honestly it’s even worse as his ERA was 2.56 on June 4th). So what should be done with a guy who has a 7.34 ERA and 1.69 ERA over his last six starts? Do you drop him in a 12 team league? The answer comes down to who is available to add. If you’re in a league where people have itchy trigger fingers maybe there are guys like a returning to health Derek Holland or an improving Ubaldo Jimenez on the wire, an in that case you could consider moving on from Sanchez. Personally, I’m stubborn. If my pitching wasn’t a mess, if I could afford to give him some time, I’d bench Anibal and give him a few more starts to see if he can right the ship. What’s done is done, there’s no going back now. Still, we’re talking about a guy who some rather impressive numbers overall this season including a 8.20 K/9 mark, a 2.97 K/BB ratio and a 1.46 GB/FB rate. Chances are pretty good that if he holds on to all three of those numbers for the duration of the year that he’s going to have a good deal of success in the second half.

I don’t need a 2B but should I drop Carlos Quentin for Alexi Amarista? Quentin is tickin me off.
– @BigDaddyLowery

Amarista has been killing it the past two weeks hitting .424 with four homers and 15 RBIs (that includes all four homers, and 13 of those RBIs, in his last seven games). Point blank, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game. Still, let’s not go overboard here. Amarista is 5’8” and weighs about a buck-fifty. He’s no power hitter. Just look at his minor league totals by year.

2008: 2 HR, 21 RBI
2009: 4 HR, 49 RBI
2010: 5 HR, 68 RBI
2011: 4 HR, 55 RBI

He does have a .312 minor league average, and he owns some speed, but this is a guy at this point that profiles as an NL-only option, and not a mixed league force. If you don’t need a second baseman, he’s not someone you should be picking up to start in your utility spot (over at Fleaflicker people seem to agree).

Quentin was insanely hot when he returned from his knee issue hitting five homers with nine RBIs in his first six games. Everyone thought he was Babe Ruth. Over his last 14 games he has one homer and three RBIs. Now everyone thinks he is Willie Bloomquist. He is neither player of course, and this brings up the shortsightedness that so many people have in the fantasy game (Bloomquist by the way is hitting .333 over his last 78 at-bats). Quentin is hitting .289 this season which is .035 points better than his career mark. Quentin has a .430 OBP which is .080 points better than his career rate. Quentin has a .577 SLG which is .083 points better than his career rate. Taken in total, Quentin is working on a 29 game pace that would equate to 35 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.007 OPS over the course of a full season. Are you really going to complain about that? Of course you wouldn’t.

Baseball is a long season. If you don’t have the patience to wait out players slumps you’ll likely miss the good that they have to offer. So next time you think about dropping a guy who has had a rough three weeks for someone who’s name you didn’t even know two weeks ago because that unknown player has been hot take a deep breath, logically analyze the situation, and make sure you aren’t making a snap decision that will cost you later.

Yasmani Grandal or  J.P. Arencebia who I have held into him begrudgingly last two months in a 16 team points league?
– @lilnas2000

Grandal has burst on the scene swatting four homers in just 20 at-bats for the Padres. A borderline elite prospect at the catcher’s position, he’s already flashed the plus power he possesses. However, he’s yet to translate that pop into consistent power production in the minors, and Petco isn’t likely to do him any favors. Also, let’s not forget that the Padres still have Nick Hundley and his 3-year deal trying to find his swing in the minors, so it isn’t likely that he’s going to spend a tremendous amount of time down on the farm if he starts hitting.

As for JPA, what were you expecting? Just like the case with Quentin above, Arencebia has his strengths and his faults. Just like Quentin he has long stretches of ineffectiveness. Just like Quentin he’s a power bat and the results often come in bunches. Sure J.P. hit a mere .189 with eight RBIs in June, but let’s take that holistic approach again. JPA has 239 at-bats right now. If we give him 443, the same total as last season, what do we get?

2011: .219-23-78-47
2012: .222-20-70-54 (pace)

That’s right. He’s on pace to pretty much replicate his production from last season, so is being disappointed in his production really fair?

I’d stick with Arencebia, though if you are worried about the batting average, taking a shot on Grandal is fine as well since the duo profiles as similarly productive fantasy options the rest of the way.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: May30, 2012

(1) Andre Ethier making big push for his payday this offseason.

(2) Roy Halladay out for 6-8 weeks with shoulder injury. Is he done being an elite arm?

(3) Jered Weaver placed on DL with back issue. Believed to be minor.

(4) Roy Oswalt signs with Rangers, about four weeks away.

(5) Jonathan Sanchez still working his way back from biceps issue.

(7) Brandon McCarthy good to go Saturday for A’s.

(8) Injured outfielders close to returning -  Yoenis Cespedes, Cameron Maybin, Michael Morse, Desmond Jennings and Nick Markakis.

You can also follow my work over at Sulia.com where I randomly post some of my thoughts through the day.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Standouts

For some reason my fantasy baseball article today deals with players whose names all start with an “S” or lower in the alphabet. It wasn’t a plan mind you, I don’t have some deviously delectable ulterior motive, it just worked out that way. How about that?

Hector Santiago is the closer for the White Sox, a move that I didn’t understand at the time it appeared to be taking shape (see Lunacy in Chicago?). Less than two weeks in the experiment has been a success, but still, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Santiago is three for four in converting saves but he blew his last outing and has allowed three runs over his last three innings. Even worse, the guy has already been taken yard three times in four innings on the season. He is still the White Sox arm to own if you are looking for saves, but tread carefully here cause this story is not yet ready to be made into a Hallmark Movie of the Week.

Stephen Strasburg flat out dominates hitters. Period. A prime example of this fact is that over his last 50.1 innings no one has elevated a pitching into the seats. On the negative side, everyone was weary of Strasburg because of the 160 IP limit he was placed on. Well, turns out, the 160 IP limit was completely a media driven number. The team never actually said they would limit Stephen to 160 innings. From Big League Stew over at Yahoo:

“Look, the media put (the 160-innings limit) out there, not me.” Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo said. “It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmerman pitched last year… “I don’t have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind… when we feel he’s had enough, we’re going to shut him down.”

What all of that means is that Strasburg isn’t likely to throw 200-innings this year but there also isn’t an artificial floor of 160-innings for him this season either.

B.J. Upton is finally close to a return. He was supposed to only miss a couple of days after running into Desmond Jennings, but that “couple of days” has stretched out to weeks. He went 2-for-4 Monday night and will likely appear in two more minor league games before being activated to return to the lineup on Friday against the Twins. Now might be your last chance to acquire him on the cheap. Speaking of Jennings, he does have four hits the last two days, though that has only brought up his slash line to the following levels: .250/.333/.300. I’m not going to condemn or exalt any player based on 10 games, but this is not exactly the start that Jennings owners were hoping for. In addition to that terrible slash line Jennings has also failed to go deep and he has a whopping 12Ks.

Chase Utley (knee) is improving according to the latest report from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro. Here’s the quote. “His strength seems to be improving,” Amaro said. “He’s moving forward.” Uh Ruben, what the hell does that mean? I’m improving from yesterday too since I got a good nights sleep. The Phillies continue to be, lets just say difficult, when it comes to updates with Utley. It almost feels like they are guarding the secrets to cold fusion.

Matt Wieters went bananas Monday night with three hits to raise his average to .344. Two of the hits were homers, and he also plated five runners, leaving him with four homers and nine RBI through nine games (how is he only owned in 82 percent of leagues over at Fleaflicker?). This is the type of production everyone thought was possible when he was taken 55th overall in the 2007 draft. It’s very early, but it’s possible that we’re finally witnessing the emergence of a supremely gifted talent who could, if everything breaks right, end the year as the most valuable catcher in the fantasy game.

I’ve long been a fan of Chris Young. Not the broken down hurler but the dynamic outfielder of the D’backs. Ranked #25 in the BBGuys Preseason Draft Guide in the outfield, he’s been a top-25 overall player in the early going. In point of fact, Young has been a top-5 overall performer thanks to a .405 average, five homers, seven RBI and two steals. Despite all that greatness the most amazing part of his early season heroics might be his BB/K ratio of 1.20. It won’t hold up, he’s never had a mark above 0.58, but his ratio has improved for 4-straight seasons showing the type of growth that is indicative of a player who could bust loose for a monster season.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL

Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.

John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.

Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).

Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.

Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.

Rookie Report

Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.

Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 26, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Jemile Weeks for Desmond Jennings ROTW?
– @jbpowellal

Weeks has provided the A’s with a spark on offense. He’s hitting a strong .307 through his  first 40 games, and he’s used his speed to swipe 10 bags. He has little power, he hasn’t gone deep once and his SLG is a poor .405, but he slaps the ball and runs. One part of his game that he hasn’t flashed yet is his patience at the dish as his current 4.6 walk rate is about a third of the number he posted at Triple-A this year. It would be nice to see him put a few more balls into the ground, his 40 percent ground ball rate isn’t great, but overall this has been a good start to his career.

Jennings is a better talent than Weeks as he can do a few more things on the offensive side of the field. Jennings, surprisingly, showed some power at Triple-A this year with 12 homers in 89 games, while flashing his elite speed. He has also done a solid job all throughout his minor league career at getting on base (his OBP in over 500 minor league games is .380). He’s up with the Rays, finally, and he has looked phenomenal in a couple of games. The real question at this point is can he stay healthy?

Many will argue that Weeks is the preferred option because of his position (second base). I’m still going in the other direction even though Jennings plays a position that’s filled with talent (outfield) because he is just so talented.

What’s your take on Alex Cobb. Is he just fill in or does he have long term value? 
– @mercier_five

Cobb is part of a current six man rotation with the Rays. Personally I think the choice to go in that direction is a terrible one, but it’s the way it is in Florida right now. The biggest concern I have with Cobb is his catastrophic K/9 drop. Well over a K per inning guy at Double and Triple-A the past two years, he’s currently at 5.14 through seven big league starts. His BB/9 rate is also worse than the league average as well at 3.43. So how is he having success? It’s all in the grounders as 56 of the batted balls put in play off him have been rug burners. He’s much more Derek Lowe and Fausto Carmona than he is James Shields right now.

As for his long-term value Cobb, a 4th round draft pick in 2006, has risen through the minors on the Rays’ pitching plan, and as we’ve seen that often leads to a lot of success. Cobb was a strikeout per inning arm in the minors, but he’s failed to keep that up in the bigs. The hope is that he doesn’t turn into Wade Davis who has done the the same thing. As a big league starter he’s likely to settle into the #4 role on a good team meaning that he will be hard pressed to ever be a difference maker at the big league level.

What’s your take on Pedro Alvarez now that he’s back?
– @TrillaTrav

Alvarez, the second selection in the 2008 Draft, hit 16 homers with 64 RBI in 95 games with the Pirates last season. Heading into this year nearly every expert in the fantasy game had Alvarez in their top-10, and even those that didn’t were admitting that Alvarez clearly could reach that level. He simply hasn’t. Alvarez has hit .211, posted a .289 OBP and is sporting a sickly .305 SLG (his OBP last year was .326). Alvarez ended up injured and demoted, though he finally seemed to have found his stroke. In 18 games on the farm he hit .325 with a .439 OBP and .538 SLG leading to a recall with the Pirates.

Alvarez has the ability to hit 30 homers while driving in 100, a rate that he was basically performing at last season in the second half (13 homers, 53 RBI over his last 71 games). He’ll need to cut his K-rate down, its over 30 percent this year, to reach that level of success. With all the problems at third base this season, Alvarez is well worth taking a shot on in mixed leagues as there’s always a chance that he’ll recapture the success he had last season in the second half – he certainly has the talent to do it.

IF Heath Bell gets traded, do I drop any of these for Mike Adams – Izzy, Axford, Marmol, Perez, Santos?
– @hedmohave

Last week I broke down the outlook of Mike Adams in the July 19th Mailbag piece. Let me put it this way – his skills are superb, sublime, scintillating in fact. He deserves to be rostered in all but the smallest leagues right now, even as a setup man. If he ends up the closer for the Padres, his value would skyrocket. As for the other arms, here are some thoughts.

Jason Isringhausen: Give him credit for his comeback. The Mets appear intent to sit on him and let him mentor Bobby Parnell leaving Izzy as the Mets’ closer. Jason hasn’t thrown 40 innings since 2008, didn’t pitch in the majors last season, and is 39 years old. He also is giving up a huge 53 percent fly ball rate while his 1.88 K/BB ratio is terrible.

John Axford: Good for the Brewers in doing the right thing, i.e. leaving Axford in the 9th and using Francisco Rodriguez as the setup man. Axford continues to impress with a K.9 rate of 11.27, which when combined with a 54 percent ground ball rate results in him being ideally suited to long-term success in the 9th inning.

Carlos Marmol: The Cubs’ righty had a brutal week, but since then he’s back on track with four scoreless outings. Owner of a devastating arsenal, Marmol is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he is back as the closer. It’s a bumpy ride, but the results are usually solid. If his BABIP of .324 regresses back to career norms (.254), he would be in line for a strong finish.

Chris Perez: He has been struggling a bit all season despite converting 22 of 24 save chances. A K/9 per inning arm, Perez has seen that number dip to 5.80 this season, which when complimented but his 4.54 BB/9 mark makes him one risky option on the hill. That regression has been on full display the last two weeks as his ERA has gone from 2.23 to 3.03 over four outings.

Sergio Santos: He’s being used cautiously by Ozzie Guillen as Sergio has now appeared in 5-straight games in which he hasn’t lasted an inning despite allowing not a single hit and just one walk. He has been strong all year (3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 12.07 K/9) and remains the arm to own in Chicago, even with the odd usage.

Would I drop any of these arms to add Adams if the deal goes down? I wouldn’t even wait that long. I’d make the move to add Adams right now at the expense if Isringhausen.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

In the Bowls of Hell

I’m in Washington DC this week, before I saunter on over to St. Louis mid week. It’s a ton of fun getting a chance to spend some quality time with the great folks I work with at Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. To the last person, a class act group. But I gotta tell ya, this heat is killing a kid. As a California born and raised boy, 90 is pushing the limits of my heat tolerance. As you are all likely aware, there is a historic heat wave hitting the east coast right now. The other night at Camden Yards in Baltimore, and it’s a spectacular place to view a ball game, it was 102 degrees at first pitch. I know your thinking that’s super hot for a day game, but the problem is it was 102 degrees at 7:05 PM. It’s almost too hot to live. Thank goodness there were copious amounts of beer available because what’s better when it’s hot than continuing to dehydrate yourself with booze?

This past weekend saw the HOF induction of Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar take place. While I have some doubt about the efficacy of Blyleven, there is no doubt whatsoever that Alomar was worthy of induction, a fact that I covered in The 2011 Hall of Fame Class. If you ask me, Alomar is one of the five greatest second basemen of all time so I can’t understand why he wasn’t inducted in his first year of eligibility. I’ve also written a few other pieces about the HOF, and two of them are What is a HOF Closer?, and Innocent Until Proven Guilty if you have some time to kill.

Now on to a Mailbag question…

I’ve been holding onto Desmond Jennings and now I can finally get him in my lineup. I need someone to sit between Coco Crisp, Delmon Young, Eduardo Nunez and Magglio Ordonez. Weekly lineup. Steals is not an issue for me, but in a race for R, RBI, HR still.
— Vinny

Desmond Jennings is an elite talent that I profiled back in The Prospect Trinity (the piece also discussed Dustin Ackley and Brett Lawrie, the other two arms of the Trinity). Jennings has taken forever to get to the big league level. The Rays were reluctant to start his arbitration clock early, and then he suffered an injury down on the farm. However, he’s making up for lost time rather quickly as he he killed it since being called up to The Show going 4-for-6 with two runs and two steals making him pretty much a must add in all formats.

Looking at your group, here’s what I would suggest doing.

Magglio Ordonez is hitting .322 in July. He still isn’t showing any power, and he has no speed, but his bat should play as a 5th outfielder type in mixed leagues as long as he’s healthy.

Eduardo Nunez is hitting .333 in July, and he has stolen four bases each of the past three months. However, you say speed isn’t a big need for you which mitigates the main value add of Nunez.

Delmon Young is hitting over .300 his last 34 games, but he has only two homers and 26 RBI in over 250 at-bats.

Coco Crisp has only one steal in his last 10 games, but he’s up to 27 thefts on the year and it’s pretty hard to say adios to production like that.

I’d add Jennings and let go Mr. Nunez if you have your infield covered. If you have outfield depth, there’s really no reason to keep the limited upside of Ordonez.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Rookie Roundup

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.

Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.

Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.

Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).

Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.

Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.

Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.

Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.

Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?

By Ray Flowers

The Prospect Trinity

photo © 2011 Mike Durkin | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone loves rookies and the promise of being the first guy to claim the next future star. The chance to grab an all-star caliber player off of waivers is ever enticing despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of rookies fail each year to reach their promise.

I’m going to break down three youngsters that I get questions about literally every day. I expect all of these players to have long and productive careers. Will that happen starting this month? Your guess is as good as mine there, so I’d caution you to avoid dropping established major league players to take a shot on guys that have scant big league work under their belt.

Brett Lawrie: .354-15-49-51-11 with a .1092 OPS in 223 ABs
Competition: Edwin Encarnacion, John McDonald, Jayson Nix

The world got a scare last night when Lawrie was hit by a pitch on his left wrist. Reports suggest that he will be fine, though it remains unclear if this will preclude him from being promoted on Friday as the rumor mill suggests (that seems highly unlikely now).

A youngster with only 51 games of experience above Double-A, Lawrie is a mere 21 years old. Though he had a solid season in 2010 at Double-A (.285-8-63-90-30), it was but not an otherworldly effort. Still, he was ranked as the 28th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2011 campaign, the skills were just too impressive to ignore, and he’s done nothing to dissuade anyone from that opinion with his blazing start to this season.

The PCL, and Las Vegas in particular, is a hitters haven. At the same time, you can’t write off the production of Lawrie because of that. As a scout recently quipped, when Lawrie swings the bat it is with ill intent. He has power, doesn’t strike out too frequently (17.9 percent K-rate), and when he gets on base he knows how to swipe a bad. To put it bluntly, there isn’t much the guy can’t do on offense.

A second baseman, Lawrie’s been shifted to third because of the anemic production of the Blue Jays’ third baseman (at one point last week Nix, McDonald and Encarnacion went 0-for-45). With little to block him from taking on a full-time role, it shouldn’t be long before Lawrie is lashing liners for the Blue Jays.

Dustin Ackley: .292-7-26-43-6, .875 OPS in 219 ABs
Competition: Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy

The Arizona Fall League MVP, Ackley can hit, the problem is his glove. Don’t blame Ackley for that. An outfielder and first baseman in college, Ackley was shifted to second base by the Mariners. Ask scouts and they’ll tell you that he can make the routine play but that his defensive game, especially his work around the bag, needs a lot of work. They don’t question that he will get there, but the fact is he currently isn’t really anything more than, at best, an adequate defensive player.

Ackley has moderate pop, scouts think he could be 20 homer bat in the big leagues, but over his last 720 at-bats in the minors he’s managed to go deep only 14 times. He also has solid skills on the bases where he should be able to steal some bases, though again his production in that respect has been moderate (10 steals last season, six this year). What he does do well is get in base and he’s currently sporting a solid .400 OBP at Triple-A.

Chone Figgins continues to be in the teams plans at third, but he’s hitting .190 which means a guy like Ackley could really be used at the top of the Mariners’ order. The club is getting nothing from Wilson (.555 OPS in 101 ABs), and Kennedy isn’t an answer either at second base. It would appear that Ackley’s role to the majors is only blocked by his glove at this point.

Desmond Jennings: .267-8-23-37-9 with a .837 OPS in 191 ABs
Competition: Sam Fuld

The next Carl Crawford – or so he has been billed – Jennings came into 2011 as the 22nd ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Jennings undoubtedly owns elite wheels, and dreams of 40+ steals at the big league level seem like a plausible outcome one day. However, his minor league track record has been as much about starts as it has stops as he has constantly been injured.

In 2006 Jennings stole 32 bases in just 56 games.

In 2007 Jennings stole 45 bases in just 99 games.
In 2008 Jennings stole five bases in just 24 games.
In 2009 Jennings stole 52 bases in 132 games.
In 2010 Jennings stole 37 bases in just 109 games.

While the steal totals are certainly impressive, did you notice that three of the years he failed to appear in 100 games? This year he’s been healthy appearing in 50 games, but where have the steals gone (he has just nine thefts)? It doesn’t matter how fast you are if you can’t stay on the field.

In nearly 500 minor league games Jennings has hit .295 with a .382 OBP showing that he isn’t too shabby with the bat in his hands. At the same time, he’s only gone deep 37 times, though eight of those long balls have come this season.

The Rays need an infusion of speed and excitement with their club, two roles that Jennings seems ideally suited for. Unfortunately the financial situation in Tampa is such that they needed to delay Jennings arrival to the big leagues until this month so they could delay the start of his arbitration clock. B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce seem locked into the outfield, and with Johnny Damon the DH, all that stands between Jennings and significant playing time, other than the ever present pall of injury, is Sam Fuld who has hit .157 with a .434 OPS in the month of May.

By Ray Flowers

ROTW Rankings: Hitters

I get asked all the time, ‘hey Ray, can you rank these players for me the rest of the way.’ I diligently answer the queries, but with the question being asked so frequently it only made sense for me to come up with a list that I could refer people to. A few caveats before we get to the actual rankings.

(1) Players are only listed at one position so you only find Jose Bautista in the outfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop even though they qualify at multiple positions.

(2) I’ve sprinkled in a few rookies, guys like Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero and Desmond Jennings, but with so much uncertainty surrounding young players and when/if they will be called up, most of the youngsters currently in the minors were left off the list.

(3) This is the most important point to make – these are Rest of the Way rankings. Jose Bautista might be the #1 fantasy performer right now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the best the ROTW. These lists are intended to give my thoughts on how players should be ranked from May 30th on, irrespective of the players production up to this point.

(4) The rankings are based on the standard of a 12 team mixed league using traditional 5×5 categories.

With that, here is the list. I’m sure you’ll all have a good time critiquing my thoughts, and I look forward to reading your replies in the COMMENTS section below.

ROTW-HITTERS-May30-2011-BBGuys

By Ray Flowers