Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill over performed in 2010 before regressing substantially in 2011. Which pitcher should the Diamondbacks, who picked him up in a deal with the Athletics (Cahill and Craig Breslow were dealt to the D’backs for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook), expect to show himself in 2012?

Let’s get right to the numbers with Cahill.

2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.87 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 1.79 K/BB, 2.21 GB/FB

I knew a fall was coming, especially in the ratio categories. Here’s what I wrote on June 10th of 2011. “…I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.” How did I know that would occur? It should have been obvious.

Cahill is an extreme ground ball hurler who has generated a 56 percent ground ball rate the past two years. That’s a phenomenal number (in 2010 he was 5th in baseball in GB-rate and he was 6th in 2011 – amongst hurlers that qualified for the ERA title). Clearly he is elite at generating ground balls. This skill, more than any other, should lead to a long and successful career for Cahill. Keeping the ball on the ground covers up a multitude of sins as it takes an awful lot of singles to score a lot of runs versus those hurlers who give up the big fly with frequency.

However, despite that one elite skill, the rest of his “game” isn’t that strong. A solid K arm in the minors, Cahill has posted a strikeout mark of 5.48 per nine innings in his career. Given that the AL average during his career has been 6.88, he is clearly deficient in this measure. One could look at the growth he has shown in his three seasons and have a little hope (4.53, 5.40 and 6.37 per nine), but his 2011 mark was still well below the league average. Cahill also issues free passes a bit too frequently. In his career his BB/9 mark is 3.35 versus the league average of 3.23 (he’s also had two of three seasons above 3.50). As a result, his 1.64 K/BB ratio for his career is awful and light years from the league average of 2.13 the past three years. All the ground balls help to cover up some of these issues, but at the same time you will always struggle for consistency if your K/BB ratio is that far below 2.00.

xFIP kind of tells the story with Cahill. Though his career ERA is 3.91 his xFIP mark is 4.23 for his career. Even the last two seasons when his ERA was 3.58, his xFIP was nearly a half a run higher at 3.95.  So what is the going rate in the fantasy game for a guy who wins 14 games with a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 5.90 K/BB ratio (the average of Cahill the last two years)? How much would you pay at the draft table for Mark Buehrle who won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 4.78 K/9 ratio in 2011?

Trevor Cahill is a better real world pitcher than a fantasy option. As a third starter he’s likely to have a long and successful career – he could be a Derek Lowe type who has a decade of success – but I’d feel best about him being a rock as a 4th starter. In the fantasy game he’ll never be a 3rd or 4th starter. The main reason is that Cahill simply doesn’t miss enough bats (his minor league K numbers just haven’t been sustained in the bigs). We’ve seen how good he can be when everything clicks, but we’ve also seen how things can go in the other direction when that sinker isn’t hitting its spots. Cahill is a solid NL-only arm because he’ll get to face the Padres and Giants a lot, two teams that can’t hit and play in pitcher’s parks, and facing pitchers instead of a DH will also be a boost to his value. Still, I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a 5th starter in a standard mixed league because of the lack of punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill was a magnificent option at the second base position in 2009. In 2010 he still powered the long ball but his batting average barely rested above the Mendoza line. In 2011 he went bonkers in the steals category but his power evaporated quicker than Kim Kardashian’s marriage to Kris Humphries (by the way dude, you aren’t doing yourself any favors bad mouthing Kim. Just let it go). The Diamondbacks signed Hill to a 2-year, $11 million deal based upon the success of his past, and his solid finish to the year with the club (.315/.386/.492 over 33 games). As a fantasy player, how should you be evaluating Hill heading into 2012 – should you be thinking, like the Diamondbacks, that a rebound is in the cards?

How good was Hill in the recent past? Fantastic actually. In 2009 he hit .286, socked 36 homers, knocked in 108 runs and scored 103 runs. He won people fantasy leagues in 2009. For a follow up be hit 26 homers, had 68 RBI and scored 70 runs, but his average plummeted all the way down to .205 thanks in no part to an unbelievably low, I mean historically bad, .196 BABIP mark. From 2008-09 Hill was second at the second base position with 62 homers (two behind Dan Uggla), third in RBI with 176 (Uggla had 195, Robinson Cano 194), 6^th in runs scored with 173 (Cano led the way with 206) and third with 121 extra base hits (Cano 148 and Uggla 123). Basically, Hill was a difference maker in the fantasy game. But he hit .205 in 2010 causing tremendous trepidation amongst his owners. When he slumped to just eight homers last season it hardly mattered that his batting average rebounded somewhat to .246. However, he did excite with 21 steals, a massive total for a guy who in six previous seasons had never stolen more than six bags. It was the only thing that saved his 2011 season.

So let’s take a step back here and look at what Hill brings to the field.

Hill hit 36 homers in 2009. He’s not going to repeat that number. His HR/F ratio that year was 14.9 percent, almost 50 percent great than his career mark of 7.9 percent. Speaking of his HR/F rate, the reason he hit only eight homers last season is easily evident – his 2011 HR/F ratio was only 4.2 percent. Add 14.9 to 4.2 and divide by two and you get 9.6 percent, a pretty fair number given his career mark.

Hill stole 21 bases in 2011. Will he repeat that? It’s possible, but given that he had 23 stolen bases in his career before last season you’d be best served in expecting fewer than 20 thefts in 2011.

What about the batting average? Hill has hit as high as .291 in a season, he’s actually done that twice (2006-07), and as low as .205. For his career he has hit .267 and he has more seasons hitting .274 or better (four) than hitting under his career average (three). So why the struggles the past two years? The explanation for 2010 is easy. He simply had one of the worst seasons in modern history. His 10.6 percent line drive rate was comically low for a guy who owns an 18.9 percent career mark. As for his 2011 struggles, those are harder to explain. Hill’s line drive rate soared to 21.2 percent, his best mark in six years, but he still managed a BABIP of .268. Given that line drive rate, one would assume his BABIP would easily eclipse the .300 mark, if not push into the .320′s. I’m therefore just gonna say it – Hill has been unlucky the past two seasons and should have a good chance of seeing his batting average rebound further in 2012.

Let’s put together Hill’s career bests. If we do that we end up with a fantasy line of .291-36-108-103-21. That’s an utterly stupendous effort. Obviously he’ll never do all of that in one season, but the point should be obvious – despite his numbers fluctuating wildly the past couple of years, this guy has tons of talent.

Hill is just 29 years old, an age where he should be reaching his peak and not one where people are questioning if the D’backs erred in giving him a two year deal. I think they did the right thing. I also think that if the baseball gods have any integrity they will return the mojo that Hill has lost the last couple of seasons and allow him to return to being what he should be – a second baseman who is capable enough to be considered a low end starter in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Willie Bloomquist

Photo by Keith Allison

People are still, and I mean vigorously in some cases, defending Willie Bloomquist. Is he going to be this year’s Jose Bautista, an out of nowhere performer who ends up leading his club to a fantasy championship? Could I be completely wrong in my scathing review of Bloomquist from last week in Around the Horn: April 8, 2011? After all Willie is leading baseball in steals with six (tied with Matt Kemp). In case you didn’t watch my video on Bloomquist because you can’t stand my ugly mug, let me lay out the plain facts for you yet again.

(1) In his career he has hit .266. The league average since he began his career in 2002 is .269.

(2) Willie has a .318 career OBP. The league average in that time is .335.

(3) Will has a career SLG of .339. The league average during that time has been .427.

So to review he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG. Not a one of them.

(4) Bloomquist has 1,909 at-bats at the big league level, the equivalent of about four full big league seasons. However, he’s only had one season with more than 255 at-bats in nine years. Why do you think that is? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that he isn’t a league average performer in AVG/OBP/SLG? If he was really that good a player, would he really never have caught the eye of his current manager?

(5) He has no power. Bloomquist has 14 homers – in his career. Even if he was give 500 at-bats this year at his career pace he would hit four homers. Four.

(6) In a 9-year career he has never once platted more than 29 runners, and that was in 2009 when he had 434 at-bats. Clearly he isn’t a run producer.

(7) Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s scored an average of 74 runs. That’s a decent total, but it hardly makes up for his average of four homers, 39 RBI an a .266 batting average.

(8) What about the steals – the thing everyone is so jazzed about right now? Willie has always been a solid single league pickup for his ability to swipe a bag, there is no disputing that. At the same time we are talking about a guy who has only once season of more than 16 steals, and a major reason for that is that he’s never been able to convince anyone to make him a daily add to the lineup card.

Over at BaseballHQ they developed a way to measure stolen base effectiveness called Stolen Base Opportunity (SBO) which record “a rough approximation of how often a base-runner attempts a stolen base.” The big league average is usually about 10 percent, and in his career prior to this season Bloomquist had a mark of 23.7 percent, obviously a much better mark than the average big league base runner. What’s that mark this season? How about 58.3 percent. You don’t need me to say anything other than there is no way he’ll be able to keep up that pace, right?

2011 OUTLOOK

First off, stop the insanity people. Bloomquist will never ever play over a healthy Stephen Drew. So put that thought right out of your mind. And that brings up a key factor here – where will Willie play? He’s spent the past two games in the outfield, but really, how many teams can run a guy out there everyday if he can’t hit for average, can’t get on base, and can’t drive the ball? Moreover, what positions does Willie qualify for this year in your league? He’ll be outfield eligible in all leagues, but last year he only appeared in six games at second, 11 at third and one at shortstop. This year he’s played five games at short, so he’ll likely qualify there in many leagues, but if he’s only outfield eligible for you right now his value is diminished substantially.

You already know how I’m going to finish this report. Willie Bloomquist will not become this years Jose Bautista. He has no power, isn’t very good at producing runs, and as I’ve stated a couple of time, he isn’t even a league average hitter in AVG/OBP/SLG. Sure he’ll steal a base, but even then there is no way that he’ll likely even hold on to 60 percent of the SBO rate he is currently sporting the rest of the way. Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist. Maybe six months from now I will look foolish for what I’ve written today, but my confidence level is high that I’ll end up in the right on this one.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010

(1) Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox.

(2) Derek Jeter agrees to 3-year deal with Yankees.

(3) Mariano Rivera agrees to 2-year deal with Yankees.

(4) Lance Berkman signs with Cardinals.

(5) Cliff Lee will become insanely rich.

(6) Carl Pavano will hit it big as 2nd best SP on market.

(7) Jayson Werth gets seven years from Nationals.

(8) Adam Dunn signs with White Sox.

(9) Carl Crawford looking for $150 million plus over eight years.

(10) Mark Reynolds now an Oriole.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April26, 2010

(1) Ryan Howard backs up the money truck, and it’s fully loaded.

(2) Ian Kinsler to hit 5th upon return.

(3) Red Sox lineup in flux.

(4) Miguel Olivo gaining more looks at expense of Chris Iannetta.
*NOTE: After video was made, the club demoted Iannetta to Triple-A in the hopes that he will relax and rediscover his stroke.

(5) Jeff Suppan out of rotation, replaced by Chris Narveson.

(6) D’backs offense looks good with Johnson-Young-Reynolds.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 15, 2010

(1) Is the 27 year old breakout season a reality or a myth? See below for links.

(2) Which 1B/2B/3B are being undervalued in fantasy leagues? See below for links.

(3) Yovani Gallardo looked really good on Monday dominating the Indians.

(4) Brian Roberts gets epidural for injured back.

(5) Kerry Wood shut down with back woes.

(6) Joe Nathan to throw on Saturday, test elbow.

(7) Octavio Dotel improving, should pitch in game this week.

(8) Mark Reynolds becomes a rich man in desert.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.

27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

Taking Sides: Third Base.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 11, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes thyroid update – out 1-7 weeks.

(2) Brian Roberts (back) ready for BP.

(3) Brandon Webb likely to start year on DL.

(4) Lance Berkman continues to be bothered by knee. Will visit doctor again.
Note: After this video was made, it was announced that Berkman would have minor surgery on his knee and likely miss 2-4 weeks.

(5) Shawn Marcum looking good in camp, might start opening day for Blue Jays.

(6) David Price and his hand are OK after being hit by bat.

(7) Brian Giles decides to hang up the spikes.

Oh, and for those of you out there with teenagers – or for those of you who can’t get enough of vampires or stories of timeless love – the first trailer for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse came out today. Make fun of me all you want, you know you’re clicking on the link to check it out.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers