Player Profile: Cody Ross

Cody Ross had a solid season for the Red Sox as he went deep 22 times while knocking in 81 runs. Some folks around Boston seem to think that Ross is the second coming of Jim Rice. I’m here to tell you he’s not the second coming of Dwight Evans, not even close. What is Ross? He’s a solid 5th outfielder in mixed leagues in fantasy baseball, nothing more, no matter what anyone tells you. Let’s investigate.

NOTE: The D’backs signed Ross to a 3-year, $26 million deal. That’s a bit much for my liking, not crazy high but a bit much. Moreover, his signing overloads the D’backs with outfielders so it seems likely that Jason Kubel or Justin Upton could be dealt to open up playing time for Ross, Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and either Kubel/Upton. I don’t know what the D’backs are doing. See my Player Profile of Justin Upton.

Ross had a great season if you ask Red Sox fans. My reply to that is that he had a great season relative to the abysmal effort of the Red Sox last season. In the grander scheme of things, “great season” can only be applied to Ross if you mean it in the sense of the return on your draft day investment (there were tons of mixed leagues where he wasn’t drafted, and in that situation 21 homers and 81 RBIs is a great season). Some perspective from your favorite downer (that’s me by the way).

After batting .282 in his first 49 games Ross batted .237 over his last 81 games leading to a .267 average on the year. What part of that looks good to you? It should also be noted that the AL batting average last season was .256 and that outfielders hit .265 (Ross is a .262 career hitter). He’s barely treading water here.

More of the same… for the fourth straight season Ross had an OBP in the .320′s, hardly a shock given his career .324 mark. Last season the AL average was .320 making Ross blah as blah gets. Ross also posted a 0.33 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the league average and virtually identical to his career 0.34 mark. It deserves to be noted as well that his 24.4 K-rate was a career worst for a season of at least 150 at-bats.

Ross finished the year with 22 homers, the third time he has reached 20 homers and two off his career best of 24. However, he hit only nine homers over his final 74 games and just six over his last 56 contests. What you see is what you get here. Ross’ 14.9 percent HR/F ratio was actually a five years high, but it still didn’t lead to a big time homer mark cause he just isn’t that strong a hitter.

His RBI total of 81 was the second best of his career (he had 90 in 2009). At the same time that number is far from impressive for a guy who played for the Red Sox and had a change to play half his games at Fenway.

His run scored mark of 70 was the third time in four years he reached that level. Still, it’s not a very impressive number for a mixed league outfielder, is it?

He stole two bases while being caught three times. Over the last three seasons he’s stolen 16 bases. Yippee.

So here is what I see. Tell me there I’m wrong.

For his career Ross has hit .262. For his career the league average is .264.
For his career Ross has a .324 OBP. The league average is .334.
For his carer Ross has a .460 SLG. The league average is .420.
For his career Ross has a .783 OPS. The league average is .753.

Per 150 games played Ross has produced a fantasy line of .262-21-76-67-5. None of that stands out in any way. I would also be remiss if I didn’t note that in a career that began back in 2003 that Ross has played 150 games only twice. Part of the reason for that is that he undershoots his already boring career numbers when he faces right-handed pitching: .253/.312/.415. I’m sorry D’backs fans, but this guys isn’t anything special. The only way that Ross is truly worthy of paying attention to in a mixed league he must convince his employers to give him 500 at-bats. Even with 500 at-bats your still looking at a guy who is barely average across the board. You can do better when it comes to late round gambles in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chris Johnson

What a boring name. Can you get more vanilla than Chris Johnson? I’ll answer for you – no. In 2011 Johnson’s performance matched the term “vanilla.” In fact, he may not have even risen to that level. For the first half of the 2012 season it was more of the same for Johnson, that is until he was dealt to the Arizona Diamondbacks after which time he performed like an all-star run producer. So which player is Johnson – a guy you don’t bother even looking at or someone who you can add, cheaply, and find yourself smiling when the 2013 season is completed?

Some history.

In 2010, Johnson appeared in 94 games for the Astros. If you just look at the numbers you would be giddy if you had Johnson in a dynasty league as his first extended stretch in the big leagues resulted in a .308 average, 11 homers and 52 RBIs, a pace that would equate to 18 homers and 83 RBIs over 150 games. Not bad for a first season, right?

In 2011 Johnson appeared in 107 games for the Astros, and to say he took a step back wouldn’t tell the story. Johnson hit .251, a .057 point drop. Johnson hit seven homers, four fewer than 2010 despite 37 more at-bats. He also drove in 10 fewer runs (42) while also scoring eight fewer times (32). His OPS fell from a solid .818 to a poor .670. If I was a teacher giving out pass/fail marks Johnson’s sophomore campaign was a fail.

In 2012 Johnson was solid with the Astros hitting .279 with eight homers and 41 RBIs in 92 games, but after he was sent to the D’backs his level of production took off. Johnson hit .286, ten points above his career mark, while going deep seven times with 35 RBIs in 44 games. That’s a pace for 24 homers and 119 RBIs folks. So is this guy on the cusp of busting out? The short answer is – no.

Johnson has a huge flaw, and I’m talking one you could drive an 18 wheeler through. The guy just doesn’t have a clue about the strike zone. To draw a parallel, he has less of an idea of the strike zone that I do about astrophysics. Johnson has a 24.7 percent K-rate for his career, a bad number. Unfortunately, that number isn’t as rare as it should be in this day an age, but that doesn’t excuse Johnson. To give you a concrete number, Johnson has averaged 133 Ks per 500 at-bats in his young career. If it was only the strikeouts we could live with it but it’s when you combine that K rate with a lack of walks, oh boy, we’ve got issues. Johnson has walked 63 times… in his career. Ryan Braun walked 63 times last season. Johnson draws a walk every 21 plate appearances. That means he takes a walk about every five games. That’s awful. In a 348 game big league career Johnson has a 0.19 BB/K ratio. That’s not even half of the big league average. Not even half.

Johnson has been able to have success despite a lack of walks and too many strikeouts, partially, because of his .347 career BABIP. Is he one of the rare hitters who can post a mark that high year after year? It’s not impossible to think he could, but let’s say it strains credulity to think that mark won’t come down moving forward. A corollary to that position would be his career 24 percent line drive rate, a tremendous number (league average is 19-20) that does support that BABIP mark. Still, history suggests that both of those numbers are likely to recede. Just take a look at 2011. When Johnson’s BABIP fell to a still strong .317 his batting average dipped to .251.

As for his power, there’s nothing at all to see there. Johnson’s 500 at-bat average would lead to a total of 13.4 homers per season. For a corner infielder that’s a terrible number when that same player has stolen a total of 10 bases in his career. Johnson’s fly ball rate is 33 percent for his career. That’s not even the big league average (36 percent). His 10.9 percent HR/F ratio is about one percent above the big league average. Any advantage he gains there is lost when you look at his low fly ball mark.

Here are the facts.

Johnson strikes out too much.
Johnson never walks.
Johnson’s power is below league average for a third baseman.
Johnson never steals bases.
Johnson is walking a tightrope, without a net, in terms of his ability to help in batting average.

Don’t be fooled into thinking a breakout is immanent with Johnson. It’s not.
By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Justin Upton

I just finished eating a bologna sandwich. Probably not the best thing I could have put in my mouth but my pork shoulder is currently doing it’s thing in my oven so it wasn’t quite ready to consume. The reason I bring that up is that we can all agree that a hunk of pork shoulder is a better meal than a slab of bologna on a couple of pieces of white bread. Somehow though the Diamondbacks front office has convinced itself that Justin Upton is a piece of bologna and not something that should be savored. From where I sit this position seems nonsensical for a myriad of obvious reasons.

(1) Upton is just 25 years old. There is a very real chance that he hasn’t reached his peak as a ballplayer yet.

(2) No one seems to notice that even in a terribly disappointing season that he was three homers and two steals from going 20/20. There is that other little fact that he scored 107 times which tied him with Andrew McCutchen for fourth best total in baseball. If that’s a “down” season there are about 725 other big league players who would shave five years off their life to be a “down” performer year after year.

(3) Upton has a season in which he hit .300. Upton has a season in which he hit 31 homers. Upton has a season of 88 RBIs. Upton has a season in which he has scored 107 runs. Upton has a season that he stole 21 bases. That’s a fine piece on pancetta and not a hunk of bologna.

(4) The 25 year old Upton is signed for the next three years for roughly $500,000 less than $39 million that Shane Victorino just upped for three years with the Red Sox (for more on Victorino see his Player Profile). Victorino is 32 years old, has never hit 31 homers, never scored 107 runs and has never driven in 88 runs. Not even close.

For some reason the D’backs have been alternating between – we have to move Upton to we will listen to offers for Upton to we will not be trading Upton. It’s been that way for more than a year now. I just don’t get it. Is Upton a HOF talent? I would suggest that he is. Has he consistently performed like a HOF talent? The answer is obviously no. That’s frustrating, I get it, but the guy is just 25 years old. At 25 years of age Ryan Howard had 107 games of big league experience. Upton has appeared in 108 or more games for five years now. Why on earth would the Diamondbacks consider giving up on Upton at his age? Are they really ready to say that even if he doesn’t improve one bit, if his 162 game average of .278-28-108-97-18 is maintained for the next three years, that he isn’t worth the $38+ million he is to be paid? I’m telling you there are about 29 other teams that would gladly pay him that, especially considering that there is a very reasonable chance, as I’ve already stated, that Upton could improve upon the numbers he has posted to this point of his career.

This is all I can figure. One of the following issues must be going on with Upton behind the scenes.

He parties with hookers and blow.
He gambles incessantly.
He has an odd predilection or two that might be considered borderline illegal.
He’s a disaster in the club house.

The issue with all of that is that NONE OF IT appears to be true. Not a single one of those things is known to be true with Upton, so what gives Diamondbacks? None of us outside of your organization get it – at all.

Maybe the D’backs are privately saying one or more of the following things.

(1) Upton has failed to live up to expectations. We know that he is just 25 years old but he should have established himself as a superstar by now and he hasn’t.

(2) Upton has failed to reach 20 homers or 70 RBIs in two of the past three years. How can we trust this guy to be the player we build our franchise around being that we aren’t exactly a huge market club and can’t afford to pay a guy roughly $13 million a year if he is going to hit like Jason Kubel.

(3) For all his talents, what kind of improvement is he going to show if he keeps striking out so much? Upton has whiffed at least 120 times in each of his five full seasons after all.

My rebuttal?

You already know my thoughts about his age.

Yes he has failed to be a big time run producer in two of the past three years, that is certainly a fair critique. However, in 2009 and 2011 he averaged 29 homers, 87 RBIs and 95 runs scored. I also noted his elite line over the past four years (per 162 games), but here it is again: .278-28-108-97-18.

Yes Upton strikes out too much (just like his brother B.J. Upton who you can read about in this Player Profile). On the flipside his K-rate has been well below his 23 percent career rate the past two years (18.7 and 19.3 percent). There is also the fact that for three years running Justin has shown a slight improvement in his K/BB ratio (0.40, 0.42, 0.47 and 0.52). I would also point out that while his OBP hasn’t been great the past five years that the number has always been between .353 and .369 as he has consistently gotten on base at a solid level.

I have no idea why the D’backs keep trying to trade this guy. My only concern with Upton in the fantasy game is directly tied to all of this nonsense. How long will he be able to keep his cool and go out there an perform day after day when it is clear to him, I mean like someone walking in on their spouse with another person in bed, that he’s no longer wanted. Will that mental strain wear him down and ultimately erode his production? I’d still draft Upton as my #1 outfielder and feel very good about it, but it would be great of the Diamondbacks made up their mind, once and for all, what their plan is with Justin Upton.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon McCarthy

Late last season, Brandon McCarthy took a line drive off his head. Thoughts of him continuing his baseball career were put on hold as he was taken to the hospital and forced to undergo brain surgery to stabilize his body and save his life. The prognosis was guarded at first, but eventually he was out of the proverbial woods and it seemed like he would be able to live a normal life. Even better at this point is that it appears likely that he will be able resume his baseball career in 2013, excellent news after the scary incident that had us all worried about his life. The D’backs decided that the free agent was worth the risk and have agreed to a two year deal worth $15.5 million dollars to have McCarthy hurl the baseball for them two next two seasons. Was that a wise investment by the Diamondbacks or should they just have signed Joe Blanton for $15 million, the price he agreed to with the Angels (for more on Blanton, see his Player Profile)?

For his career McCarthy owns a 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP an a 37-39 record. Those numbers, combined with a 6.15 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB ratio, paint him as about as average a pitcher as there is in the game. However, there’s more to this pitcher than his career long numbers, much more in fact. Over the last two seasons, 43 starts with the Athletics, Brandon has taken his game up a notch. He may have only won two more games than he lost (17-15), but his ERA has been a sparkling 3.29, his WHIP an impressive 1.18, and his K/BB ratio has shot into the stratosphere at 4.00. Not only are those impressive numbers for an AL hurler, they are just flat out strong totals (the ERA is 22nd in baseball, he’s allowed just the 18th most base runners in the game, and his K/BB ratio is 10th among all pitchers who have thrown at least 275 innings). Now it’s making a lot more sense why the D’backs were happy to give him a two year deal for just over 15 million. Alas, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows with McCarthy.

The most obvious issue with Brandon is a lack of health. I’m not talking about his head injury, I’m talking about his body and more specifically his shoulder. He’s altered his mechanics over the years to compensate for his shoulder, but the fact remains that he’s been a starting pitcher since 2007 and only once in that time has he thrown 170 innings. Moreover, only once in that time has he thrown even 115 innings in a season. The guy just doesn’t have a track record of staying healthy, and it doesn’t matter how talented or effective you are if you aren’t on the field. His health is a HUGE concern.

Though his K/BB ratio has been excellent the last two years and speaks to his understanding of how to pitch, it’s all about his control (in each of the past two seasons his BB/9 mark has been under 2.00). He just doesn’t beat himself which is fantastic, but the other side of that coin is that he also isn’t a strikeout arm which does significantly impact his fantasy outlook. The only time that he’s reached 6.50 batters per nine innings in the K department was way back in 2006. For his career that 6.15 K/9 mark would equate to 123 strikeout per 180 innings pitched. Two points. (1) He’s never thrown 180 innings in a season. (2) Even if he did maintain that rate over 180 innings that total of 123 strikeouts is still just seven more than Craig Kimbrel had last season out of the bullpen. It’s a terrible mark for a starter and would have placed McCarthy 84th in the game in ’12. The lack of strikeout may not hinder his effectiveness on the hill, but it’s a significant red flag in the fantasy game.

McCarthy, who famously has become a bit of a sabermetric geek, learned that given his skill set he would be better off inducing ground balls versus allowing fly balls. He therefore attempted to tailor his pitches to induce grounders, and rather amazingly, he’s had a ton of success doing that. Over the first five seasons of his career his fly ball ratio was at least 41.7 percent each season. The last two years that mark has been 32.2 and 35.1 percent. It’s not overly difficult to understand why his performance has turned around the past two years. He’s pitched more to his strength and worked hard at keeping the ball down in the zone.

So where does all of this leave us? When healthy and on the hill the past two years, McCarthy has been a very impressive big league hurler. There are still a handful of issues you need to be aware of before rostering him. (1) He has an exceedingly difficult time staying health. His track record is one that is littered with DL stints. (2) We assume that he will be fully healthy and capable of performing at his 2011-12 levels in 2013. I certainly hope that is the case, but he did suffer a life threatening injury so I’d like to see him have some success on the hill before just blindly expecting a return to his previous levels. (3) He doesn’t strike batters out nearly enough to be a truly dynamic fantasy weapon. (4) Though he now gets to pitch in places like San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, in ballparks that favor pitchers, his home park is not so kind to hurlers. In 2012 his home park in Oakland was 22nd in runs and 23rd in homers according to Park Factors. The park in Arizona was 6th in runs and 6th in homers. The move from the AL to the NL might not be as much of a positive as you initially thought given the more difficult home environment he will be pitching in. I wish McCarthy luck and wouldn’t at all mind if he was on my fantasy team, but I also wouldn’t draft him as an upper echelon arm given the previously noted concerns. For me, he’s 5th starter type in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wade Miley

Happy Thanksgiving.

Bryce Harper won the NL Rookie of the Year Award as pretty much everyone predicted he would, but his winning margin was just seven points over Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks. So let’s look into the player that was deemed the best rookie pitcher in the Senior Circuit.

You know me, I usually don’t put much stock into win-loss records because there is so much more that plays into that result than a hurlers performance, but that doesn’t mean I’m unimpressed by a rookie who wins 16 games against 11 loses. Miley didn’t exactly kill it with 18 quality starts in 29 starts, but his 62 percent quality start mark was the same as Yu Darvish and C.J. Wilson. Miley also tossed 194.2 innings meaning he was just one start from 200 innings, and in today’s game that’s an impressive mark for a rookie hurler.

One of the reasons for his success was that he kept the runs under control as evidenced by his solid 3.33 ERA. I’m going to suggest that you shouldn’t expect a repeat of that number in 2013. I’m not here to say you should expect it to go up by a full run or anything, but a rise of half a run is possible, maybe probable, given his overall skill set. We’ll get into that as we go along, but consider these two data points. (1) His xFIP for 2012 was 3.75. (2) His SIERA was 3.84. Those two measures suggest that his ERA should have been a half run higher than it was last year, thereby adding some support to my contention that his ERA will likely go up in 2013.

Miley struck out 6.66 batters per nine innings. Before you go searching for your cross to ward off the devil, let’s just comment on the number itself. It’s not a great number, at least not a dominating one. Remember, strikeouts are more abundant than ever before in this great game of ours. The result is that the big league average K-rate last season was 7.56 meaning that Miley was a basically a batter below league average in this measure. Given how fond I am of the strikeout, that concerns me when we get around to breaking down Miley’s fantasy value. The number also isn’t very likely to go up much as his career minor league number was 6.99.

Miley was able to combat this less than advantageous K-rate very well with a special 1.71 walk per nine mark. That’s an amazing amount of control for any hurler, let alone a rookie. The result was a 3.89 K/BB ratio, another excellent mark that was 10th best in baseball among pitchers who tossed 162 innings. Putting a downer on the party, I seem to do that a lot don’t I?, is the fact that during his minor league career Miley’s K/BB ratio was 2.23. It’s not reasonable to expect a guy who is basically average in that category for four years to all of a sudden become elite overnight. Hence, the safe money is on that number receding in the 2013 in the form of additional walks (another reason to worry about his ERA staying so low).

Since I’m downing Miley here, let me continue that theme in an unlikely place. Miley was great with RISP last season holding batters to a .222 average and .552 OPSA. Those are elite numbers. Does he have an innate ability to “bear down” and get batters out when the pressure is at it’s highest? Possibly, but it’s still tough to say that Miley will be able to repeat that success in 2013 (with the bases empty last year batters hit .260 with a .663 OPSA).

Miley was also fortunate in the BABIP column. His .293 mark is right on the league average so there is nothing off there, but it is a low number for a guy who surrendered a 23 percent line drive rate. I would also posit that his 6.9 HR/F ratio is a bit low. The 8.2 mark he owns for his career seems like a more likely resting place for that number to be in 2013.

So Miley is a must avoid in 2013 then? I wouldn’t go that far. What I would say is the following. Wins and loses are always random. Miley could pitch exactly the same in 2013 and his record could be 12 and 14. It’s just how that goes. Second, the preponderance of the evidence suggests that his ERA will go up in 2013. Ditto for his WHIP considering he walked fewer batters in ’12 than he had at any point in his pro career. Given that his strikeout rate isn’t anything to look at, Miley is unlikely to fully repeat his value in the coming campaign. All of that means that Miley is a solid 4/5 starter type in mixed leagues so make sure you don’t be seduced by the effectiveness he had as a rookie and draft him earlier than that.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy tied for the NL lead last year with 21 victories. You know that I’m not a huge fan of win-loss records when it comes to defining a pitcher, but when a guy goes 21-4 – Clayton Kershaw went 21-5 – you have to pay attention. So why is it that some fantasy baseball players are taking Daniel Hudson before they look Ian Kennedy’s way  at the draft table in 2012? That’s a very good question. Perhaps they think, as I will argue, that Kennedy has little chance of replicating his 2011 effort.

Some facts about Kennedy’s 2011 season.

Kennedy tied for the NL lead in wins.

Kennedy posted a 2.88 ERA. Only seven pitchers in the NL bettered that mark.

Kennedy struck out 198 batters. Only seven NL pitchers had more.

Kennedy posted a 1.08 WHIP. Only five NL hurlers had a better mark.

Kennedy had a .227 BAA. Only four NL hurlers were tougher to hit.

Kennedy tossed 222 innings. Only four NL hurlers threw more innings.

All of that certainly makes Kennedy seem like an elite hurler, does it not?

The strikeouts are legit. Over the last two years his K/9 mark has been 7.79 and 8.03. When a pitcher does that in more than 400-innings I’m buying it.
One of the main keys to his surge from solid to dominating last year was the fact that he stopped beating himself. Over his first 253.2 big league innings he walked 3.80 batters per nine innings, about a half batter above the big league average. Last year he chopped that number down like a lumberjack whacking weeds as his BB/9 mark shrank to 2.23. It’s hard to know if we should trust his work last season completely, an in truth, I don’t. Pitchers just don’t cut a batter from their walk rate overnight (his rate was 3.25 in 2010). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give back some of those gains. Moreover, I’d feel more comfortable expecting a BB/9 mark closer to his 2010 rate than his mark from 2011.

Kennedy is as run of the mill as it gets when we talk about GB/FB ratios. In fact, he’s never posted a league average mark of 1.10 (last year’s 0.98 rate was a career best). I will give Kennedy credit for cutting the fly ball rate a bit last year, he was three percentage points below his career norm, but unfortunately most of those batted balls ended up as line drives instead of ground balls. If he keeps that trend up in 2012 you’d have to think he would allow more hits than he did last season. In addition, his left on base percentage of 79.2 percent was huge (it was the 9th highest mark in baseball). It was four percent better than his rate from 2010 and about nine percentage points clear of the league average. That doesn’t speak to a repeat effort in the ERA column. Neither does his xFIP which places his ERA last season at 3.50. All of this data paints a pitcher who had a perfect storm last season which helped to maximize hie performance.

What do I think about Kennedy? I think he will be a solid pitcher in 2012. As I wrote above, the strikeouts are legit, an if he stays healthy long enough to toss 200-innings he’ll be a benefit in that category. I worry about his ability to keep his ratios as low as they were last season given the drastic improvement he made in the walk column, the fact that his LOB% was so high and that his GB/FB ratio was so mediocre. If you’re drafting Kennedy in 2012 make sure your expectations are reasonable. If you roster him thinking he will be a top-30 starter you have a good chance that your expectations will be met. If you think he’s a top-15 arm you’ll more than likely end up a bit disappointed in the Diamondbacks’ righty.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill over performed in 2010 before regressing substantially in 2011. Which pitcher should the Diamondbacks, who picked him up in a deal with the Athletics (Cahill and Craig Breslow were dealt to the D’backs for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook), expect to show himself in 2012?

Let’s get right to the numbers with Cahill.

2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.87 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 1.79 K/BB, 2.21 GB/FB

I knew a fall was coming, especially in the ratio categories. Here’s what I wrote on June 10th of 2011. “…I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.” How did I know that would occur? It should have been obvious.

Cahill is an extreme ground ball hurler who has generated a 56 percent ground ball rate the past two years. That’s a phenomenal number (in 2010 he was 5th in baseball in GB-rate and he was 6th in 2011 – amongst hurlers that qualified for the ERA title). Clearly he is elite at generating ground balls. This skill, more than any other, should lead to a long and successful career for Cahill. Keeping the ball on the ground covers up a multitude of sins as it takes an awful lot of singles to score a lot of runs versus those hurlers who give up the big fly with frequency.

However, despite that one elite skill, the rest of his “game” isn’t that strong. A solid K arm in the minors, Cahill has posted a strikeout mark of 5.48 per nine innings in his career. Given that the AL average during his career has been 6.88, he is clearly deficient in this measure. One could look at the growth he has shown in his three seasons and have a little hope (4.53, 5.40 and 6.37 per nine), but his 2011 mark was still well below the league average. Cahill also issues free passes a bit too frequently. In his career his BB/9 mark is 3.35 versus the league average of 3.23 (he’s also had two of three seasons above 3.50). As a result, his 1.64 K/BB ratio for his career is awful and light years from the league average of 2.13 the past three years. All the ground balls help to cover up some of these issues, but at the same time you will always struggle for consistency if your K/BB ratio is that far below 2.00.

xFIP kind of tells the story with Cahill. Though his career ERA is 3.91 his xFIP mark is 4.23 for his career. Even the last two seasons when his ERA was 3.58, his xFIP was nearly a half a run higher at 3.95.  So what is the going rate in the fantasy game for a guy who wins 14 games with a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 5.90 K/BB ratio (the average of Cahill the last two years)? How much would you pay at the draft table for Mark Buehrle who won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 4.78 K/9 ratio in 2011?

Trevor Cahill is a better real world pitcher than a fantasy option. As a third starter he’s likely to have a long and successful career – he could be a Derek Lowe type who has a decade of success – but I’d feel best about him being a rock as a 4th starter. In the fantasy game he’ll never be a 3rd or 4th starter. The main reason is that Cahill simply doesn’t miss enough bats (his minor league K numbers just haven’t been sustained in the bigs). We’ve seen how good he can be when everything clicks, but we’ve also seen how things can go in the other direction when that sinker isn’t hitting its spots. Cahill is a solid NL-only arm because he’ll get to face the Padres and Giants a lot, two teams that can’t hit and play in pitcher’s parks, and facing pitchers instead of a DH will also be a boost to his value. Still, I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a 5th starter in a standard mixed league because of the lack of punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill was a magnificent option at the second base position in 2009. In 2010 he still powered the long ball but his batting average barely rested above the Mendoza line. In 2011 he went bonkers in the steals category but his power evaporated quicker than Kim Kardashian’s marriage to Kris Humphries (by the way dude, you aren’t doing yourself any favors bad mouthing Kim. Just let it go). The Diamondbacks signed Hill to a 2-year, $11 million deal based upon the success of his past, and his solid finish to the year with the club (.315/.386/.492 over 33 games). As a fantasy player, how should you be evaluating Hill heading into 2012 – should you be thinking, like the Diamondbacks, that a rebound is in the cards?

How good was Hill in the recent past? Fantastic actually. In 2009 he hit .286, socked 36 homers, knocked in 108 runs and scored 103 runs. He won people fantasy leagues in 2009. For a follow up be hit 26 homers, had 68 RBI and scored 70 runs, but his average plummeted all the way down to .205 thanks in no part to an unbelievably low, I mean historically bad, .196 BABIP mark. From 2008-09 Hill was second at the second base position with 62 homers (two behind Dan Uggla), third in RBI with 176 (Uggla had 195, Robinson Cano 194), 6^th in runs scored with 173 (Cano led the way with 206) and third with 121 extra base hits (Cano 148 and Uggla 123). Basically, Hill was a difference maker in the fantasy game. But he hit .205 in 2010 causing tremendous trepidation amongst his owners. When he slumped to just eight homers last season it hardly mattered that his batting average rebounded somewhat to .246. However, he did excite with 21 steals, a massive total for a guy who in six previous seasons had never stolen more than six bags. It was the only thing that saved his 2011 season.

So let’s take a step back here and look at what Hill brings to the field.

Hill hit 36 homers in 2009. He’s not going to repeat that number. His HR/F ratio that year was 14.9 percent, almost 50 percent great than his career mark of 7.9 percent. Speaking of his HR/F rate, the reason he hit only eight homers last season is easily evident – his 2011 HR/F ratio was only 4.2 percent. Add 14.9 to 4.2 and divide by two and you get 9.6 percent, a pretty fair number given his career mark.

Hill stole 21 bases in 2011. Will he repeat that? It’s possible, but given that he had 23 stolen bases in his career before last season you’d be best served in expecting fewer than 20 thefts in 2011.

What about the batting average? Hill has hit as high as .291 in a season, he’s actually done that twice (2006-07), and as low as .205. For his career he has hit .267 and he has more seasons hitting .274 or better (four) than hitting under his career average (three). So why the struggles the past two years? The explanation for 2010 is easy. He simply had one of the worst seasons in modern history. His 10.6 percent line drive rate was comically low for a guy who owns an 18.9 percent career mark. As for his 2011 struggles, those are harder to explain. Hill’s line drive rate soared to 21.2 percent, his best mark in six years, but he still managed a BABIP of .268. Given that line drive rate, one would assume his BABIP would easily eclipse the .300 mark, if not push into the .320′s. I’m therefore just gonna say it – Hill has been unlucky the past two seasons and should have a good chance of seeing his batting average rebound further in 2012.

Let’s put together Hill’s career bests. If we do that we end up with a fantasy line of .291-36-108-103-21. That’s an utterly stupendous effort. Obviously he’ll never do all of that in one season, but the point should be obvious – despite his numbers fluctuating wildly the past couple of years, this guy has tons of talent.

Hill is just 29 years old, an age where he should be reaching his peak and not one where people are questioning if the D’backs erred in giving him a two year deal. I think they did the right thing. I also think that if the baseball gods have any integrity they will return the mojo that Hill has lost the last couple of seasons and allow him to return to being what he should be – a second baseman who is capable enough to be considered a low end starter in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Willie Bloomquist

Photo by Keith Allison

People are still, and I mean vigorously in some cases, defending Willie Bloomquist. Is he going to be this year’s Jose Bautista, an out of nowhere performer who ends up leading his club to a fantasy championship? Could I be completely wrong in my scathing review of Bloomquist from last week in Around the Horn: April 8, 2011? After all Willie is leading baseball in steals with six (tied with Matt Kemp). In case you didn’t watch my video on Bloomquist because you can’t stand my ugly mug, let me lay out the plain facts for you yet again.

(1) In his career he has hit .266. The league average since he began his career in 2002 is .269.

(2) Willie has a .318 career OBP. The league average in that time is .335.

(3) Will has a career SLG of .339. The league average during that time has been .427.

So to review he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG. Not a one of them.

(4) Bloomquist has 1,909 at-bats at the big league level, the equivalent of about four full big league seasons. However, he’s only had one season with more than 255 at-bats in nine years. Why do you think that is? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that he isn’t a league average performer in AVG/OBP/SLG? If he was really that good a player, would he really never have caught the eye of his current manager?

(5) He has no power. Bloomquist has 14 homers – in his career. Even if he was give 500 at-bats this year at his career pace he would hit four homers. Four.

(6) In a 9-year career he has never once platted more than 29 runners, and that was in 2009 when he had 434 at-bats. Clearly he isn’t a run producer.

(7) Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s scored an average of 74 runs. That’s a decent total, but it hardly makes up for his average of four homers, 39 RBI an a .266 batting average.

(8) What about the steals – the thing everyone is so jazzed about right now? Willie has always been a solid single league pickup for his ability to swipe a bag, there is no disputing that. At the same time we are talking about a guy who has only once season of more than 16 steals, and a major reason for that is that he’s never been able to convince anyone to make him a daily add to the lineup card.

Over at BaseballHQ they developed a way to measure stolen base effectiveness called Stolen Base Opportunity (SBO) which record “a rough approximation of how often a base-runner attempts a stolen base.” The big league average is usually about 10 percent, and in his career prior to this season Bloomquist had a mark of 23.7 percent, obviously a much better mark than the average big league base runner. What’s that mark this season? How about 58.3 percent. You don’t need me to say anything other than there is no way he’ll be able to keep up that pace, right?

2011 OUTLOOK

First off, stop the insanity people. Bloomquist will never ever play over a healthy Stephen Drew. So put that thought right out of your mind. And that brings up a key factor here – where will Willie play? He’s spent the past two games in the outfield, but really, how many teams can run a guy out there everyday if he can’t hit for average, can’t get on base, and can’t drive the ball? Moreover, what positions does Willie qualify for this year in your league? He’ll be outfield eligible in all leagues, but last year he only appeared in six games at second, 11 at third and one at shortstop. This year he’s played five games at short, so he’ll likely qualify there in many leagues, but if he’s only outfield eligible for you right now his value is diminished substantially.

You already know how I’m going to finish this report. Willie Bloomquist will not become this years Jose Bautista. He has no power, isn’t very good at producing runs, and as I’ve stated a couple of time, he isn’t even a league average hitter in AVG/OBP/SLG. Sure he’ll steal a base, but even then there is no way that he’ll likely even hold on to 60 percent of the SBO rate he is currently sporting the rest of the way. Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist. Maybe six months from now I will look foolish for what I’ve written today, but my confidence level is high that I’ll end up in the right on this one.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers